Post-Game Talk: Flightless birds vs Eagles rematch @7 PM

[hb12xchamps]

By the time we were into this season, I completely agree with you there were no meaningful goalie upgrades available. But if you’re right that it’ll take until Sammy’s fourth NHL season for him to have a better shot at winning, it was incredibly poor planning on GMBM’s part to end up in a position where Sammy was our guy for this year. Yes, they expected to have Lundy too, but at his age and based on his last few years in New York he was a wildcard option at best. The choices they made in net appear to have been cost-driven, more than anything, because of how expensive our top-6 and D corp have become.

Given Holtby had been on a downward trajectory for some time, and GMBM seemed to know they were moving on from Holtby when his contract ran out, they should have moved Holts before last season and brought in someone who could be our new starter, but who Sammy could naturally beat out over the coming years. It’s what NYI did with Varlamov, who is playing some of the best hockey of his career while Sorokin develops into an eventual starter. A guy like Lehner was available twice – after NYI passed on resigning him, and then again when Chicago put him on the market. There were guys available, and we passed on them in favour of keeping a broken Holtby, and then relying on an unproven rookie to become Vezina-quality within a couple of years of entering the league.

But what you’re leaving out is that Samsonov was trending up and looking like a legit #1. Then COVID hits, he wrecks an ATV and gets COVID. That clearly took a toll on his game.

 

[twabby]

Samsonov/Vanecek may be good this postseason, or they may be bad, or they may be somewhere in the middle.

One thing is for sure: no other goaltender in the NHL can put up reliably good performances either! Going cheap on goaltending was the smart move IMO. Goaltenders are all about the same anyways, except for maybe one or two guys who aren't available. Like every postseason I'm just hoping the Capitals goalies get lucky instead of unlucky.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

But what you’re leaving out is that Samsonov was trending up and looking like a legit #1. Then COVID hits, he wrecks an ATV and gets COVID. That clearly took a toll on his game.

what you’re leaving out is those things were all results of personal decisions. Not on the list of successful decisions top athletes typically make.

So he may NEVER get back on that #1 track with off ice decision-making like that. Just sayin…

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Samsonov/Vanecek may be good this postseason, or they may be bad, or they may be somewhere in the middle.

One thing is for sure: no other goaltender in the NHL can put up reliably good performances either! Going cheap on goaltending was the smart move IMO. Goaltenders are all about the same anyways, except for maybe one or two guys who aren't available. Like every postseason I'm just hoping the Capitals goalies get lucky instead of unlucky.

Luck….might as well start talking about magic.

Overall, Goalies who go on deep playoff runs get hot. Luck is not the driving force behind a successful playoff goalie….sorry.

 

[HecticGlow]

a goalie with a consistent .925 is expensive. period.

Not unreasonably expensive, no. Find me a contender spending as little money on goaltending as we are?

We’re paying $17,000,000 for top-6 centers.
$26,155,128 on top-6 wingers.
$21,000,000 on top-4 defenders.

It’s not like we won’t spend on big players in important positions, like giving big rises to a 1C or a 1D. Yet you’d have us believe we somehow can’t afford Lehner or Varlamov’s $5million AAV? Leaving aside Holtby’s performance issues, we couldn’t resign him because we spent the money elsewhere – not because he was going to become too costly. Sign one of them instead of Schultz and Hathaway and you’ve about broken even. These were preference-based choices, not necessities.

Asked to list the secrets to his success, [Stanley Cup-defending HC Jon] Cooper smiled slightly and provided his admittedly stock answer.
“One, understanding life,” he said. “Two, a loyal dog. And three, a good goaltender.”

What Is Jon Cooper’s ‘Special Sauce’?

 

[HecticGlow]

But what you’re leaving out is that Samsonov was trending up and looking like a legit #1. Then COVID hits, he wrecks an ATV and gets COVID. That clearly took a toll on his game.

If Samsonov had an extensive track record, I’d absolutely buy that analysis. And you’re right he did, for much of 2019-2020, look great. But he’d played in just 26 NHL games coming into this season, after a very hit-and-miss year in Hershey, and by the time of the ATV accident had been winless in his last several starts. He’d never been a number 1 starter at any level before, and only played consecutive starts once or twice at the NHL level. That’s a lot of unknowns about a rookie goaltender, even without him getting injured or suffering from COVID.

There was a lot of reason to be optimistic about what he could do, and absolutely he should have been part of the tandem. I still think he will go on to be an established starter in this league at some point. But to me, the sample size was simply too small to take that chance.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I'd like to see you play in net and face a breakaway from one of these guys.
He made a good move and Sammy got beat. So what.

It wasn't just a good move, he undressed Sammy with one shoulder fake. To me it looks like a goalie who is nervous in net. He wasn't in control last night at all, meanwhile Jarry at the other end had a radar for the puck.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If Samsonov had an extensive track record, I’d absolutely buy that analysis. And you’re right he did, for much of 2019-2020, look great. But he’d played in just 26 NHL games coming into this season, after a very hit-and-miss year in Hershey, and by the time of the ATV accident had been winless in his last several starts. He’d never been a number 1 starter at any level before, and only played consecutive starts once or twice at the NHL level. That’s a lot of unknowns about a rookie goaltender, even without him getting injured or suffering from COVID.

There was a lot of reason to be optimistic about what he could do, and absolutely he should have been part of the tandem. I still think he will go on to be an established starter in this league at some point. But to me, the sample size was simply too small to take that chance.

but in conjunction with the Hank signing, much less so, even acceptable IMO.

 

[twabby]

Luck….might as well start talking about magic.

Overall, Goalies who go on deep playoff runs get hot. Luck is not the driving force behind a successful playoff goalie….sorry.

I agree that goalies who get hot usually go on deep runs, but how do you predict which goalie will get hot? There's incredible variability in the performances of goaltenders, as we have seen with Braden Holtby over the years. Ever during his prime he laid some eggs in the postseason, and during his downswing he had a very good postseason. And he had a few average years in there as well.

Same with someone like Vasilevskiy who is touted as the best in the business right now, but he was dreadful in 2019 when they were swept by Columbus. Jonathan Quick was good for two postseasons but beside that has been a below replacement level goaltender for much of the time. MAF went from #1 pick to sub-replacement level to godlike to average. Jordan Binnington was solid and now is a complete wild card. Carey Price went from elite and commanding an $84 million contract to a backup. Tim Thomas inexplicably had the single best season that I can remember, then he went to hide in his doomsday bunker after he became bad. Mike Smith went from decent to a complete joke and now he's pretty good again? Bobrovsky won the Vezina then was really bad and then rebounded a bit.

There's no consistency at all. Obviously you need someone with baseline NHL level goaltending skills to be competitive. So if you want to argue that neither Vanecek nor Samsonov have baseline NHL goaltending skills then I guess that's fine, though the numbers really don't support that. Ilya Samsonov has posted better numbers than John Gibson in the past two seasons and Gibson is pretty highly thought of. And he has some similar numbers to Tristan Jarry who I guess is now good and capable? Also pretty similar to Marc-Andre Fleury who was recent in Vezina contention.

Edit: Why Goaltending is Basically Random and Will Always Make You Look Stupid (In 5 Graphs) is a good primer on the randomness of goaltending.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I agree that goalies who get hot usually go on deep runs, but how do you predict which goalie will get hot? There's incredible variability in the performances of goaltenders, as we have seen with Braden Holtby over the years. Ever during his prime he laid some eggs in the postseason, and during his downswing he had a very good postseason. And he had a few average years in there as well.

Same with someone like Vasilevskiy who is touted as the best in the business right now, but he was dreadful in 2019 when they were swept by Columbus. Jonathan Quick was good for two postseasons but beside that has been a below replacement level goaltender for much of the time. MAF went from #1 pick to sub-replacement level to godlike to average. Jordan Binnington was solid and now is a complete wild card. Carey Price went from elite and commanding an $84 million contract to a backup. Tim Thomas inexplicably had the single best season that I can remember, then he went to hide in his doomsday bunker after he became bad. Mike Smith went from decent to a complete joke and now he's pretty good again? Bobrovsky won the Vezina then was really bad and then rebounded a bit.

There's no consistency at all. Obviously you need someone with baseline NHL level goaltending skills to be competitive. So if you want to argue that neither Vanecek nor Samsonov have baseline NHL goaltending skills then I guess that's fine, though the numbers really don't support that. Ilya Samsonov has posted better numbers than John Gibson in the past two seasons and Gibson is pretty highly thought of. And he has some similar numbers to Tristan Jarry who I guess is now good and capable? Also pretty similar to Marc-Andre Fleury who was recent in Vezina contention.

Edit: Why Goaltending is Basically Random and Will Always Make You Look Stupid (In 5 Graphs) is a good primer on the randomness of goaltending.

Trying to predict a goalie getting hot is impossible. They are humans….personal/individual factors (mental, physical, etc..) and many external factors (life, job, family, etc…)…..sometimes it just gels.

I sure as hell don’t categorize it as “getting lucky” when a goalie makes a great playoff run.

Holtby’s run was the perfect storm for him, never to be replicated. I called it then, he lost his job, then was able to come back in savior role that allowed him to have some relaxed pressure mentality IMO. If he lost it was just another series loss and he didn’t even play early…..to me, that factor allowed him to be his best.

The Save wasn’t luck, and neither was his extended run IMO.

 

[Neil Racki]

It takes a lot of practice and skill to get lucky

 

[twabby]

Trying to predict a goalie getting hot is impossible. They are humans….personal/individual factors (mental, physical, etc..) and many external factors (life, job, family, etc…)…..sometimes it just gels.

I sure as hell don’t categorize it as “getting lucky” when a goalie makes a great playoff run.

Holtby’s run was the perfect storm for him, never to be replicated. I called it then, he lost his job, then was able to come back in savior role that allowed him to have some relaxed pressure mentality IMO. If he lost it was just another series loss and he didn’t even play early…..to me, that factor allowed him to be his best.

Right, and the discussion is regarding how the team could have gotten better goaltending this year, which ultimately doesn't matter since they are in the playoffs and now only need to worry about how to get a hot goalie. If it is impossible to predict what goalie will get hot, then why spend a lot of cap money on banking on a prediction? Might as well just play some cheap guys, which they are doing now, and hope they get hot!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It takes a lot of practice and skill to get lucky

you have to put yourself into the position to get lucky!

 

[twabby]

It takes a lot of practice and skill to get lucky

I'm not suggesting I could step on the ice and become a hot goalie, but there is probably some practical limit as to how good goalies can be and the rest is probably just up to random chance whether they have a good 25ish game stretch or not. I think they probably have one goaltender who is close enough to the practical limit where it is pointless to argue whether they could squeeze out a hundredth or two better save percentage in the long run when in the short run variance is king.

 

[Neil Racki]

you have to put yourself into the position to get lucky!

Exactly ... you have to take the right angles, follow the puck during those crazy sequences

that’s the Patrick Roy quote “takes a lot of practice to get lucky”

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Right, and the discussion is regarding how the team could have gotten better goaltending this year, which ultimately doesn't matter since they are in the playoffs and now only need to worry about how to get a hot goalie. If it is impossible to predict what goalie will get hot, then why spend a lot of cap money on banking on a prediction? Might as well just play some cheap guys, which they are doing now, and hope they get hot!

I think the overall point of wanting better goaltending DOES matter….much more unlikely to get hot if you’re not at least playing well and getting steady playing time.

The problem is neither of our guys are putting themselves in a great position to have a chance to get hot IMO.

 

[Neil Racki]

I'm not suggesting I could step on the ice and become a hot goalie, but there is probably some practical limit as to how good goalies can be and the rest is probably just up to random chance whether they have a good 25ish game stretch or not. I think they probably have one goaltender who is close enough to the practical limit where it is pointless to argue whether they could squeeze out a hundredth or two better save percentage in the long run when in the short run variance is king.

no doubt ... like hitting the skinny shaft part of Jarrys stick last night

I think the better goalies play the better angles ... with goalies if your off angle on just 2-3 shots that’s 2-3 goals that could have been stopped plus the 1-3 goals no goalie could have stopped and suddenly they’ve scored 5-6 on you

 

[txpd]

Not really. 4 of the top 10 are on really affordable contracts. They just happen to be younger and I am sure GMBM hoped Samsonov would be the same.

Teams dont let successful young players on low cost controlled contracts go. You draft them. The goalies with .925 or better that could be gotten are expensive. Right?

I expect that MacLellan still expects Samsonov to be that. Its less likely that he would be that already in his first season as a starter. You hope he is good enough as he gets experience to get by.

 

[txpd]

Not unreasonably expensive, no. Find me a contender spending as little money on goaltending as we are?

We’re paying $17,000,000 for top-6 centers.
$26,155,128 on top-6 wingers.
$21,000,000 on top-4 defenders.

It’s not like we won’t spend on big players in important positions, like giving big rises to a 1C or a 1D. Yet you’d have us believe we somehow can’t afford Lehner or Varlamov’s $5million AAV? Leaving aside Holtby’s performance issues, we couldn’t resign him because we spent the money elsewhere – not because he was going to become too costly. Sign one of them instead of Schultz and Hathaway and you’ve about broken even. These were preference-based choices, not necessities.

You fill one hole and create another one. If you replaced Hagelin and Hathaway with league minimum players, your pk drops as far as your goalie improves. The only line on the team that hasnt changed all season is Hagelin Dowd Hathaway. You go from a solid 4 line team to a 3 line team. Dowd has a far less successful season with bargain basement wingers. Samsonov was a salary cap management force multiplier.

 

[bur and 666 others]

You think Sammy was a sieve for giving up 2 goals on breakaways and a fluke bounce off Carters skate. None of the goals were on Sammy.

I see a very inexperienced goalie. VV gives me more confidence than Sammy. Reminds me of 2009 playoffs with Varlamov. We had a talented young goalie. He played great first 3 games, but was too inexperienced and inconsistent to win the series and was exposed at the end.

I don't see them getting hot. They are hot and cold. You need to score more than 4 goals with them to win the games. Yes, our defense isn't good. I'm not optimistic going into the post-season, but this is the playoffs. Anything can happen. It's sad and scary that Pitts rounding to the form again and torching the East, except Bruins. So hope they meet in the first round.

 

[chilimac]

IIRC they were blaming Vanecek for the first 3 goals on Thursday when they were all alone 10 ft out. At the same time they wouldnt blame Sammy for a 70ft unscreened and undeflected slap shot v the Islanders. In both goalies case sometimes to win a game you need your goalie to make a save. It would have been great of Hathaway hadnt fallen on his face but less than 2 mins into that game, his team needed him to make a save. If a goalie can see it, he has a better chance to stop it than the shooter has to score it. I dont blame him for giving it up, but they lost the game on that play.

I agree with tex on this, there's been some 'double standard analysis' going on here from some folks. A double standard really means.... there's no standard being employed at all.
,,
Personally, I would slightly modify Tex's closing statement "...they lost the game on that play", by adding to it "...when they couldnt reply with a goal of their own in the next few minutes." ,, but thats just me.

Those two games were just way more frustrating than they should have been...

 

[hb12xchamps]

what you’re leaving out is those things were all results of personal decisions. Not on the list of successful decisions top athletes typically make.

So he may NEVER get back on that #1 track with off ice decision-making like that. Just sayin…

I don’t think getting COVID was a personal decision lol. The ATV decision sure, but more so the decision to hide the injury from the organization.

If he didn’t learn from that mistake then he’s not very smart and doesn’t deserve to be a professional athlete.

 

[txpd]

I agree with tex on this, there's been some 'double standard analysis' going on here from some folks. A double standard really means.... there's no standard being employed at all.
,,
Personally, I would slightly modify Tex's closing statement "...they lost the game on that play", by adding to it "...when they couldnt reply with a goal of their own in the next few minutes." ,, but thats just me.

Those two games were just way more frustrating than they should have been...

in 2009 game 7 with Pittsburgh Ovechkin got a clean breakaway in a scoreless game. MAF stoned him and the game turned on that play. You can make a case that save with the cup winning play. Stopping Rust last night was no harder than stopped Ovechkin then. Often a flat team is ignited by a save there and laid flatter by the goal against.

Last night's game was Sammy's opportunity to close the deal. A save there might well have done it. It didnt happen and the deal is not closed.

 

[Melkor]

in 2009 game 7 with Pittsburgh Ovechkin got a clean breakaway in a scoreless game. MAF stoned him and the game turned on that play. You can make a case that save with the cup winning play. Stopping Rust last night was no harder than stopped Ovechkin then. Often a flat team is ignited by a save there and laid flatter by the goal against.

Last night's game was Sammy's opportunity to close the deal. A save there might well have done it. It didnt happen and the deal is not closed.

Generally agree but the cup winning save literally was on the last secong of the last game on Lidstrom shooting point blank from 15 feet out. (I believe it was Lidstrom)

 

[HecticGlow]

You fill one hole and create another one. If you replaced Hagelin and Hathaway with league minimum players, your pk drops as far as your goalie improves. The only line on the team that hasnt changed all season is Hagelin Dowd Hathaway. You go from a solid 4 line team to a 3 line team. Dowd has a far less successful season with bargain basement wingers. Samsonov was a salary cap management force multiplier.

Arguing your fourth line is more important than your goaltending is an interesting perspective, to say the least. Especially given that your most important PKer is your goaltender. But you’ll also note I didn’t suggest replacing the fourth line with plugs. Of course, you could replace Hathaway (the third guy up on the PK) with Backstrom or Oshie and your overall PK performance wouldn’t be significantly affected. You could replace Schultz in the lineup with TVR and your PP2 wouldn’t be as productive, but with better goaltending you wouldn’t be as reliant on your PP. There were many different options available to GMBM to find the money if he wanted.

I get that you tend to like the status quo and seeing the logic in what the Caps brass do, and they are undoubtedly eminently more qualified than me to make these calls. But your insistence that this exact group of forwards and defensemen are indispensable, at a cost to investing in quality goaltending, rather perplexes me.