Flames' Percentages (Predictions) Thread:

[Tofveve]

Rules:

- 1 Question per post

- Make it Calgary Flames relevant

- Make at least one percentage prediction answering the last question before making a next question of your own

- You may post a percentage prediction to your own question

- Question is closed within 7 days of posting (if a question expires you may proceed to the next unexpired question)

- Prediction champion must have made predictions to at least 10 questions by season's end

Spoiler

Question #1 (Nov. 10/19):

"By season's end, Johnny Gaudreau will have had at least one 15 game segment with at least 30 points over that stretch."

My answer to my first question: 22% chance of this happening.

Go!

Click to read more...

 

[Ace Rimmer]

 

[Tofveve]

Apart from liking your most apropos gif, what percentage do you think Johnny has of accomplishing question #1?

 

[Janks]

Apart from liking your most apropos gif, what percentage do you think Johnny has of accomplishing question #1?

Yes

 

[Corpus X]

I love participation threads like this. It moves away from the boring arguments (not to be confused with civil discussions) that seem to happen.

"By season's end, Johnny Gaudreau will have had at least one 15 game segment with at least 30 points over that stretch."

100% chance of this happening. Johnny will be good.

Percentage chance that Brodie is traded during the season.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Apart from liking your most apropos gif, what percentage do you think Johnny has of accomplishing question #1?

100%

Chances David Rittich starts in 60+ games this season?

 

[Tofveve]

I love participation threads like this. It moves away from the boring arguments (not to be confused with civil discussions) that seem to happen.

"By season's end, Johnny Gaudreau will have had at least one 15 game segment with at least 30 points over that stretch."

100% chance of this happening. Johnny will be good.

Percentage chance that Brodie is traded during the season.

I love them too!

"Percentage chance that Brodie is traded during the season"

38% chance. Tough one. I'd have thought he'd have been traded before this year. So I think the odds are he makes it through this year too.

 

[Tofveve]

100%

Chances David Rittich starts in 60+ games this season?

Interesting . . . Through 20 games he's played 16, which is 80% . . . If he kept that pace he'd play 65.

I think there's an 86% chance he plays 60+ games by season's end.

 

[Tofveve]

Made some updates to the OP. We'll see how this goes.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Percentage chance Lucic scores a goal?

Legit question.

 

[TheTradeIsOneForOne]

Percentage chance Lucic scores a goal?

Legit question.

50%.

Percentage chance the Oilers give up their 3rd round pick?

 

[Corpus X]

Percentage chance Lucic scores a goal?

Legit question.

It took to post #10 before someone fails to follow instructions... As long as you don't count the joke posts.

"- Make at least one percentage prediction answering the last question before making a next question of your own"

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

50%.

Percentage chance the Oilers give up their 3rd round pick?

100%

Percentage chance we get a Flames Oilers playoff match?

 

[Bounces R Way]

33.33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333%


Percentage chance Jankowski eclipses his last year total of 30 hits?

 

[Tofveve]

Percentage chance Lucic scores a goal?

Legit question.

You need to answer the prior legit question before making one of your own.

50%.

Percentage chance the Oilers give up their 3rd round pick?

See above. Questions are in suspension.

 

[Tofveve]

33.33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333%


Percentage chance Jankowski eclipses his last year total of 30 hits?

Welp . . . I learned through looking for Janks' hit stat that Brodie has the same number: 4. Less than Quine and Rieder. So that is scary.

2019-20 NHL Hockey Stats and League Leaders - Defensive - National Hockey League - ESPN

But Janks' numbers are so bad this year. Zero goals, Zero assists, 9 shots, 4 hits, TOI 10ish minutes.

So I'm going with 5% chance Janks eclipses last year's 30 hits total.

 

[crackdown44]

Welp . . . I learned through looking for Janks' hit stat that Brodie has the same number: 4. Less than Quine and Rieder. So that is scary.

2019-20 NHL Hockey Stats and League Leaders - Defensive - National Hockey League - ESPN

But Janks' numbers are so bad this year. Zero goals, Zero assists, 9 shots, 4 hits, TOI 10ish minutes.

So I'm going with 5% chance Janks eclipses last year's 30 hits total.

The way the NHL tracks hits is sketchy and inconsistent af. That being said, Brodie has always been a stick check guy. He’s pretty damn effective at separating the player from the puck that way too

 

[Tofveve]

The way the NHL tracks hits is sketchy and inconsistent af. That being said, Brodie has always been a stick check guy. He’s pretty damn effective at separating the player from the puck that way too

Yeah, he's a smaller D too for how big he's actually listed. Does not play a physical game at all. But I'm still surprised nonetheless. I'll bet there some smaller D like an Ellis with more hits.

 

[Lunatik]

The way the NHL tracks hits is sketchy and inconsistent af.

This. I had Lucic in a H2H categories banger league to start this year and I saw him throw so many hits that for some reason were not registered as hits and have seen many others that weren't hits counted. The inconsistency in scoring hits from rink to rink is ridiculous, just look at Dougie Hamilton's hits since we traded him, somehow he was credited with 160 hits last year, after scoring 151 the previous two seasons combined.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Check out Vegas hit totals so far for their franchise. You’re absolutely correct to think there is absolutely zero consistency in how they are tracked from rink to rink.

 

[Lunatik]

Check out Vegas hit totals so far for their franchise. You’re absolutely correct to think there is absolutely zero consistency in how they are tracked from rink to rink.

While we're talking about poorly tracked stats, blocks aren't a great deal better. But, the absolute worst is how the NHL tracks turnovers. The NHL's Giveaway/takeaway system is absolutely f***ing atrocious, quite frankly I don't even know what constitutes a giveaway or takeaway in the NHL's eyes because on one day the play will be scored as a giveaway for player A, but the very next game that same play will be a takeaway from player B. Why can't they simplify? Turnovers for & turnovers against and always score it as both!

If you want to see how ridiculous the current format is, just think about the NFL for a moment. Imagine if interceptions were only scored for either the defensive player or the QB, never both. It would be absolutely stupid.

 

[Tofveve]

Question #5

"At 5 goals through 23 games, what is the percentage chance of Monahan reaching 30 goals this year?"

- my guess: 35% . I think the first line finds a stretch of games where they tear it up and Money pots like 12 goals in 15 games. It's what that first line does. Then it's anyone's guess whether or not he finds 13 more goals somewhere, which he should.

 

[Fig]

If we're talking glass half empty vs full situation, I put Monahan's chances of 23% of NOT reaching 30 goals.

 

[Tofveve]

If we're talking glass half empty vs full situation, I put Monahan's chances of 23% of NOT reaching 30 goals.

So 77% chance he will?

 

[Fig]

So 77% chance he will?

Pretty sure the math checks out.

Fun fact. The 77% percentage is the same percentage I perceive that Mark Jankowski at UFA will still be a Calgary Flame. Unfortunate he didn't pan out for us... but oh well.