Speculation: Five Steps to a Successful Off-Season

[67Blues]

I'm going to pull my best Nostradamus impression and say that Faulk will have a good year next season. Feel free to bookmark this.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I'm going to pull my best Nostradamus impression and say that Faulk will have a good year next season. Feel free to bookmark this.

I have the same expectation.

 

[simon IC]

I'm going to pull my best Nostradamus impression and say that Faulk will have a good year next season. Feel free to bookmark this.

I have the same expectation.

Here is my Nostradamus impression. Pietrangelo walks. Faulk is our highest-scoring defenseman with 35 points and a -19. Blues fail to qualify for the playoffs.

 

[BlueOil]

I'm going to pull my best Nostradamus impression and say that Faulk will have a good year next season. Feel free to bookmark this.

oh come on, be bold and declare if it'll be as a RHD or a LHD

 

[67Blues]

Here is my Nostradamus impression. Pietrangelo walks. Faulk is our highest-scoring defenseman with 35 points and a -19. Blues fail to qualify for the playoffs.

If that is true, then I expect a large sell off at the TDL and a complete rebuild starts.

 

[The Note]

I think if Petro walks and you have no idea what you'll be getting out of Tarasenko at this point all options should be on the table. I don't think the immediate move should be to tear it down and do a rebuild, but I think you have to accept that the current window has slammed shut and need to keep an eye to the future.

 

[Note Worthy]

It's going to be an extremely disappointing off season if Petro walks.

 

[Alklha]

Here is my Nostradamus impression. Pietrangelo walks. Faulk is our highest-scoring defenseman with 35 points and a -19. Blues fail to qualify for the playoffs.

If Pietrangelo walks then we'll sign Brodie to a five year deal at $5m AAV, then add a good middle-6 winger and Armstrong will talk about how we're built on depth.

We'll be annoyed, but slowly delude ourselves into believing that we can still compete by the start of next season.

We comfortably make the playoffs, then are just beaten by a lower seed.

 

[MissouriMook]

If Pietrangelo walks then we'll sign Brodie to a five year deal at $5m AAV, then add a good middle-6 winger and Armstrong will talk about how we're built on depth.

We'll be annoyed, but slowly delude ourselves into believing that we can still compete by the start of next season.

We comfortably make the playoffs, then are just beaten by a lower seed.

It's almost like you've seen this movie before!

 

[Ranksu]

It's going to be an extremely disappointing off season if Petro walks.

 

[Note Worthy]

If Pietrangelo walks then we'll sign Brodie to a five year deal at $5m AAV, then add a good middle-6 winger and Armstrong will talk about how we're built on depth.

We'll be annoyed, but slowly delude ourselves into believing that we can still compete by the start of next season.

We comfortably make the playoffs, then are just beaten by a lower seed.

The only thing this prediction is missing is hiring back Ken Hitchcock.

 

[quityerwhinin]

1. Sign Alex Pietrangelo – This should obviously be the top priority. He’s the straw that stirs the drink, and the consensus seems to be that the team will cease to be a serious contender without him on the blueline, so get him tied up (hopefully something like $68M over 8 years - $8.5M AAV) and be done with it. In the current cap climate, I don’t think he can expect to get over $70M (or $10M a year) from anyone who is remotely a contender even with him on the roster, so let’s sign the only captain to ever lift the Cup wearing the Blue Note to a deal that makes him a Blue for life.

2. Trade (gulp) Colton Parayko – I know I won’t find many who agree with me, but hear me out. I’m not convinced he is going to want to stay beyond the term of his current deal, and his value on the open market will be lower next offseason with only one year left on his deal. He will fetch a haul as he is (rightly) coveted around the league for his size and his reach, but he doesn’t seem to be able to find more offense in his game and I fear that his next contract is going to be a significant overpayment. I don’t want that to be from us. I feel like it would be a mistake to bring back Petro and have the same log jam of him, Parayko and Faulk on the right side, and I would have preferred that this step be “Trade Faulk”, but I just don’t see us getting much for him, certainly not the haul that Parayko will demand, but Faulk’s $6.5M a year should wear pretty well if he’s allowed to do the things he does well. It's a gamble to believe that Faulk's play will stabilize in a set role as the #2RD, but putting him with a stay-at-home partner and giving him some rope to be more of a "rover" could be what he needs to do just that.

3. Trade Vince Dunn – I think we all had high hopes that Dunn was going to turn into the next Duncan Keith, but I think we can all agree that this particular path isn’t happening for him. The truth is that he regressed last season long before the pause, and yet he is still coveted as a prospect around the league. Ultimately, we have two very different prospects in Perunovich and Mikkola banging on the door behind him, and I would rather get something nice for him now and give one of those two players an opportunity than to be in the same position next offseason having dealt with more disappointment from Dunn and trying to send him packing for scraps. While this is mostly about the disappointment of where Dunn is in his development, it can also be about what Perunovich can bring to the lineup on the scale of "He's what we already have in Dunn, just cheaper" to "Wow, Perunovich is the next Hughes/Makar". I think his play will fall somewhere to the middle of that scale, but I'd love to be pleasantly surprised.

4. Trade Jake Allen – We had a good story going for a couple of games there didn’t we? But Jake had to come back to Earth and remind us why he never became the goalie of the future or the present. I think there are a handful of teams that will see him as a reliable 1B or backup option, but I don’t think we can afford to keep this experiment going any longer. Allen is actually 4A under my scenario, with 4B/4C being to sign a top notch UFA goalie like Lehner, Markstrom or Holtby and trade Binnington, too. I just think that is an awful lot to expect from one (shortened) off season when the cap is flat, so let's "ride or die" with Binny for one more year and figure this out next offseason.

5. Find a Scorer (or two) – If Tarasenko is done, or at a minimum done for the next regular season, it would sure be nice to make this plural. Even if he is expected back in time for the start of next season (which I seriously doubt at this point) it is clear that we lack a consistent finisher to compliment him, Perron, Schenn and Schwartz. With more cap space (potentially from the retirement or LTIR of Steen) someone like Hall would be a good get, but even if we’re on more of a budget I would like to see Army step up and grab someone like a Hoffman. We know either of these guys are going to have some warts defensively, but hopefully Army can get Berube to see the big picture that sometimes (especially since goaltending is back to being a question mark) you need to be able to score your way out of trouble. Either guy would also contribute to an overall increase in team speed, something that I think is sorely needed, as well as a more reliable power play given that both REALLY like to shoot the puck. None of this covers the possibility that we can add a dynamic young scorer in a trade of Parayko, as I see that as more likely to be a hockey trade than a futures trade given the flat cap.

Recapping with more detailed steps:
1. Sign Petro to 8 x $68M ($8.5M AAV, full NTC, NMC)
2. + 4. Trade Parayko and Allen to DET for the RFA rights to Anthony Mantha, the UFA rights to Jimmy Howard (vet to challenge Husso) and the EDM 2020 2nd (sign Mantha to 6 x $39M - $6.5M AAV)
3. Trade Vince Dunn and CAR 2020 5th to NJD for ARZ 2020 1st and Nick Merkley (depth support for AHL squad)
4. (see 2.)
5. Sign Mike Hoffman 4 x $25M ($6.25M AAV, partial NTC)

In this scenario, going into the 2020 draft we would have the 18th, 26th/27th and 51st OA picks, though I would love to take the 18th and 26th in that scenario and move up to 12th (FLA) to grab someone like Lundell, Jarvis, Guhle or Quinn.

I'm sorry, but that's a terrible offseason. Just horrible. You've just resigned Pietrangelo to a boat anchor of a contract, plus sacrificed at least the next two seasons as a contender, the most important "premium" years of the new deal you just signed #27 to.

If you are going to keep Pietrangelo, it makes no sense to trade Parayko. None. If 55 goes, then Pietrangelo now has to take more defensive-end FOs, play more against the other team's top line, and, is possibly taken off the #1 PP (Berube is on record as saying he likes Parayko on the ice at the end of the PP to face the opposition's top line. Who else takes that responsibility on except Pietrangelo?). All of that mean's 27 isn't playing the same role he has the past few seasons, and the Pietrangelo from before that isn't worth $8.5M.

 

[SneakerPimp82]

I'm sorry, but that's a terrible offseason. Just horrible. You've just resigned Pietrangelo to a boat anchor of a contract, plus sacrificed at least the next two seasons as a contender, the most important "premium" years of the new deal you just signed #27 to.

If you are going to keep Pietrangelo, it makes no sense to trade Parayko. None. If 55 goes, then Pietrangelo now has to take more defensive-end FOs, play more against the other team's top line, and, is possibly taken off the #1 PP (Berube is on record as saying he likes Parayko on the ice at the end of the PP to face the opposition's top line. Who else takes that responsibility on except Pietrangelo?). All of that mean's 27 isn't playing the same role he has the past few seasons, and the Pietrangelo from before that isn't worth $8.5M.

Yes, he would be worth that. He'd just be deployed differently.

 

[quityerwhinin]

Yes, he would be worth that. He'd just be deployed differently.

No, he wouldn't be. He's not a great shut down guy. He excels when he has a very good or better shut down partner and/or 1B guy like Parayko. Pietrangelo needs Parayko, or Bouwmeester, or that stud guy who can shoulder the load of facing the other team's top line, leaving Pietrangelo free to get more involved offensively. Trading Parayko leaves the organization without that guy. You're wasting cap space signing 27 to a huge deal in that scenario.

 

[MissouriMook]

It sure seems that a lot of people have forgotten how much Petro was relied on to be our shutdown guy before 2018-19. In those years, JBo was primarily on his left to compliment him, not the other way around. When Parayko’s defensive game excelled (and his offense stagnated) it made more sense to move Parayko into a primarily defensive role and free Petro up to add more offense. Not because Petro was struggling defensively.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

It sure seems that a lot of people have forgotten how much Petro was relied on to be our shutdown guy before 2018-19. In those years, JBo was primarily on his left to compliment him, not the other way around. When Parayko’s defensive game excelled (and his offense stagnated) it made more sense to move Parayko into a primarily defensive role and free Petro up to add more offense. Not because Petro was struggling defensively.

I credit Robinson with that adjustment. The change in usage took place not long after he came aboard.

 

[The Note]

No, he wouldn't be. He's not a great shut down guy. He excels when he has a very good or better shut down partner and/or 1B guy like Parayko. Pietrangelo needs Parayko, or Bouwmeester, or that stud guy who can shoulder the load of facing the other team's top line, leaving Pietrangelo free to get more involved offensively. Trading Parayko leaves the organization without that guy. You're wasting cap space signing 27 to a huge deal in that scenario.

He used to play the same minutes as Parayko and put up 40+ points. It’s not like he was some middling defenseman before Parayko got here.

 

[Stlblue50]

It sure seems that a lot of people have forgotten how much Petro was relied on to be our shutdown guy before 2018-19. In those years, JBo was primarily on his left to compliment him, not the other way around. When Parayko’s defensive game excelled (and his offense stagnated) it made more sense to move Parayko into a primarily defensive role and free Petro up to add more offense. Not because Petro was struggling defensively.

If you guys think Petro’s defensive game hasn’t been getting worse then you should look at little closer.

 

[MissouriMook]

If you guys think Petro’s defensive game hasn’t been getting worse then you should look at little closer.

On what authority are you appealing to here? If you're going to dig in your heels like that against the contrary opinion of multiple posters, I think you owe it to the conversation to be more specific in your analysis.

 

[Stlblue50]

On what authority are you appealing to here? If you're going to dig in your heels like that against the contrary opinion of multiple posters, I think you owe it to the conversation to be more specific in your analysis.

Ok for example, he has a problem staying on his guy or figuring out who needs to be covered far too often. His puck handling and decision making is getting slower as time has gone on as well.

Don’t get me wrong, I want him to stay a Blue but I don’t want to see a crazy high/long term deal at 30.

 

[MissouriMook]

Ok for example, he has a problem staying on his guy or figuring out who needs to be covered far too often. His puck handling and decision making is getting slower as time has gone on as well.

Don’t get me wrong, I want him to stay a Blue but I don’t want to see a crazy high/long term deal at 30.

I’m not seeing what you’re seeing all that much. I think any confusion you might be remembering is likely related to the failed conversion from zone to man coverage and back, and that got cleared up around the time Binnington came in.

He is in the middle of pretty much any Top 10 D list you can find, primarily because of his IQ, positioning and otherworldly stick work. I don’t think he gets enough credit for how much he has contributed to Parayko’s development because everything Parayko is known for (except the booming shot) he learned from Petro. He has also been one of the top 10 scoring D in the game even when used primarily in a shutdown role. His usage changed with Parayko’s emergence as a shutdown D, but that was more about being able to do what Parayko can’t offensively than it is that Parayko being better defensively.

He has always been knocked for his lack of physicality but his ability to stay within himself and understand what he’s good at and what he’s not good at is part of what makes him a pro’s pro. And it will also be one of the biggest reasons why he will still be effective (and likely one of the best 2nd pairing defensemen in the league) six or seven years from now.

 

[Celtic Note]

I’m not seeing what you’re seeing all that much. I think any confusion you might be remembering is likely related to the failed conversion from zone to man coverage and back, and that got cleared up around the time Binnington came in.

He is in the middle of pretty much any Top 10 D list you can find, primarily because of his IQ, positioning and otherworldly stick work. I don’t think he gets enough credit for how much he has contributed to Parayko’s development because everything Parayko is known for (except the booming shot) he learned from Petro. He has also been one of the top 10 scoring D in the game even when used primarily in a shutdown role. His usage changed with Parayko’s emergence as a shutdown D, but that was more about being able to do what Parayko can’t offensively than it is that Parayko being better defensively.

He has always been knocked for his lack of physicality but his ability to stay within himself and understand what he’s good at and what he’s not good at is part of what makes him a pro’s pro. And it will also be one of the biggest reasons why he will still be effective (and likely one of the best 2nd pairing defensemen in the league) six or seven years from now.

This. So much this. That is really all that needs to be said on the matter IMO.

 

[simon IC]

I’m not seeing what you’re seeing all that much. I think any confusion you might be remembering is likely related to the failed conversion from zone to man coverage and back, and that got cleared up around the time Binnington came in.

He is in the middle of pretty much any Top 10 D list you can find, primarily because of his IQ, positioning and otherworldly stick work. I don’t think he gets enough credit for how much he has contributed to Parayko’s development because everything Parayko is known for (except the booming shot) he learned from Petro. He has also been one of the top 10 scoring D in the game even when used primarily in a shutdown role. His usage changed with Parayko’s emergence as a shutdown D, but that was more about being able to do what Parayko can’t offensively than it is that Parayko being better defensively.

He has always been knocked for his lack of physicality but his ability to stay within himself and understand what he’s good at and what he’s not good at is part of what makes him a pro’s pro. And it will also be one of the biggest reasons why he will still be effective (and likely one of the best 2nd pairing defensemen in the league) six or seven years from now.

Well said.

 

[Stlblue50]

I’m not seeing what you’re seeing all that much. I think any confusion you might be remembering is likely related to the failed conversion from zone to man coverage and back, and that got cleared up around the time Binnington came in.

He is in the middle of pretty much any Top 10 D list you can find, primarily because of his IQ, positioning and otherworldly stick work. I don’t think he gets enough credit for how much he has contributed to Parayko’s development because everything Parayko is known for (except the booming shot) he learned from Petro. He has also been one of the top 10 scoring D in the game even when used primarily in a shutdown role. His usage changed with Parayko’s emergence as a shutdown D, but that was more about being able to do what Parayko can’t offensively than it is that Parayko being better defensively.

He has always been knocked for his lack of physicality but his ability to stay within himself and understand what he’s good at and what he’s not good at is part of what makes him a pro’s pro. And it will also be one of the biggest reasons why he will still be effective (and likely one of the best 2nd pairing defensemen in the league) six or seven years from now.

Whatever you say Petro’s dad.

Are you willing to trade Dunn and/or Colt to get Petro signed?

 

[Note Worthy]

Whatever you say Petro’s dad.

Are you willing to trade Dunn and/or Colt to get Petro signed?

Yes.