Speculation: Five Steps to a Successful Off-Season

[MissouriMook]

1. Sign Alex Pietrangelo – This should obviously be the top priority. He’s the straw that stirs the drink, and the consensus seems to be that the team will cease to be a serious contender without him on the blueline, so get him tied up (hopefully something like $68M over 8 years - $8.5M AAV) and be done with it. In the current cap climate, I don’t think he can expect to get over $70M (or $10M a year) from anyone who is remotely a contender even with him on the roster, so let’s sign the only captain to ever lift the Cup wearing the Blue Note to a deal that makes him a Blue for life.

2. Trade (gulp) Colton Parayko – I know I won’t find many who agree with me, but hear me out. I’m not convinced he is going to want to stay beyond the term of his current deal, and his value on the open market will be lower next offseason with only one year left on his deal. He will fetch a haul as he is (rightly) coveted around the league for his size and his reach, but he doesn’t seem to be able to find more offense in his game and I fear that his next contract is going to be a significant overpayment. I don’t want that to be from us. I feel like it would be a mistake to bring back Petro and have the same log jam of him, Parayko and Faulk on the right side, and I would have preferred that this step be “Trade Faulk”, but I just don’t see us getting much for him, certainly not the haul that Parayko will demand, but Faulk’s $6.5M a year should wear pretty well if he’s allowed to do the things he does well. It's a gamble to believe that Faulk's play will stabilize in a set role as the #2RD, but putting him with a stay-at-home partner and giving him some rope to be more of a "rover" could be what he needs to do just that.

3. Trade Vince Dunn – I think we all had high hopes that Dunn was going to turn into the next Duncan Keith, but I think we can all agree that this particular path isn’t happening for him. The truth is that he regressed last season long before the pause, and yet he is still coveted as a prospect around the league. Ultimately, we have two very different prospects in Perunovich and Mikkola banging on the door behind him, and I would rather get something nice for him now and give one of those two players an opportunity than to be in the same position next offseason having dealt with more disappointment from Dunn and trying to send him packing for scraps. While this is mostly about the disappointment of where Dunn is in his development, it can also be about what Perunovich can bring to the lineup on the scale of "He's what we already have in Dunn, just cheaper" to "Wow, Perunovich is the next Hughes/Makar". I think his play will fall somewhere to the middle of that scale, but I'd love to be pleasantly surprised.

4. Trade Jake Allen – We had a good story going for a couple of games there didn’t we? But Jake had to come back to Earth and remind us why he never became the goalie of the future or the present. I think there are a handful of teams that will see him as a reliable 1B or backup option, but I don’t think we can afford to keep this experiment going any longer. Allen is actually 4A under my scenario, with 4B/4C being to sign a top notch UFA goalie like Lehner, Markstrom or Holtby and trade Binnington, too. I just think that is an awful lot to expect from one (shortened) off season when the cap is flat, so let's "ride or die" with Binny for one more year and figure this out next offseason.

5. Find a Scorer (or two) – If Tarasenko is done, or at a minimum done for the next regular season, it would sure be nice to make this plural. Even if he is expected back in time for the start of next season (which I seriously doubt at this point) it is clear that we lack a consistent finisher to compliment him, Perron, Schenn and Schwartz. With more cap space (potentially from the retirement or LTIR of Steen) someone like Hall would be a good get, but even if we’re on more of a budget I would like to see Army step up and grab someone like a Hoffman. We know either of these guys are going to have some warts defensively, but hopefully Army can get Berube to see the big picture that sometimes (especially since goaltending is back to being a question mark) you need to be able to score your way out of trouble. Either guy would also contribute to an overall increase in team speed, something that I think is sorely needed, as well as a more reliable power play given that both REALLY like to shoot the puck. None of this covers the possibility that we can add a dynamic young scorer in a trade of Parayko, as I see that as more likely to be a hockey trade than a futures trade given the flat cap.

Recapping with more detailed steps:
1. Sign Petro to 8 x $68M ($8.5M AAV, full NTC, NMC)
2. + 4. Trade Parayko and Allen to DET for the RFA rights to Anthony Mantha, the UFA rights to Jimmy Howard (vet to challenge Husso) and the EDM 2020 2nd (sign Mantha to 6 x $39M - $6.5M AAV)
3. Trade Vince Dunn and CAR 2020 5th to NJD for ARZ 2020 1st and Nick Merkley (depth support for AHL squad)
4. (see 2.)
5. Sign Mike Hoffman 4 x $25M ($6.25M AAV, partial NTC)

In this scenario, going into the 2020 draft we would have the 18th, 26th/27th and 51st OA picks, though I would love to take the 18th and 26th in that scenario and move up to 12th (FLA) to grab someone like Lundell, Jarvis, Guhle or Quinn.

Click to read more...

 

[Blueston]

1. Sign Alex Pietrangelo – This should obviously be the top priority. He’s the straw that stirs the drink, and the consensus seems to be that the team will cease to be a serious contender without him on the blueline, so get him tied up (hopefully something like $68M over 8 years - $8.5M AAV) and be done with it. In the current cap climate, I don’t think he can expect to get over $70M (or $10M a year) from anyone who is remotely a contender even with him on the roster, so let’s sign the only captain to ever lift the Cup wearing the Blue Note to a deal that makes him a Blue for life.

2. Trade (gulp) Colton Parayko – I know I won’t find many who agree with me, but hear me out. I’m not convinced he is going to want to stay beyond the term of his current deal, and his value on the open market will be lower next offseason with only one year left on his deal. He will fetch a haul as he is (rightly) coveted around the league for his size and his reach, but he doesn’t seem to be able to find more offense in his game and I fear that his next contract is going to be a significant overpayment. I don’t want that to be from us. I feel like it would be a mistake to bring back Petro and have the same log jam of him, Parayko and Faulk on the right side, and I would have preferred that this step be “Trade Faulk”, but I just don’t see us getting much for him, certainly not the haul that Parayko will demand, but Faulk’s $6.5M a year should wear pretty well if he’s allowed to do the things he does well. It's a gamble to believe that Faulk's play will stabilize in a set role as the #2RD, but putting him with a stay-at-home partner and giving him some rope to be more of a "rover" could be what he needs to do just that.

3. Trade Vince Dunn – I think we all had high hopes that Dunn was going to turn into the next Duncan Keith, but I think we can all agree that this particular path isn’t happening for him. The truth is that he regressed last season long before the pause, and yet he is still coveted as a prospect around the league. Ultimately, we have two very different prospects in Perunovich and Mikkola banging on the door behind him, and I would rather get something nice for him now and give one of those two players an opportunity than to be in the same position next offseason having dealt with more disappointment from Dunn and trying to send him packing for scraps. While this is mostly about the disappointment of where Dunn is in his development, it can also be about what Perunovich can bring to the lineup on the scale of "He's what we already have in Dunn, just cheaper" to "Wow, Perunovich is the next Hughes/Makar". I think his play will fall somewhere to the middle of that scale, but I'd love to be pleasantly surprised.

4. Trade Jake Allen – We had a good story going for a couple of games there didn’t we? But Jake had to come back to Earth and remind us why he never became the goalie of the future or the present. I think there are a handful of teams that will see him as a reliable 1B or backup option, but I don’t think we can afford to keep this experiment going any longer. Allen is actually 4A under my scenario, with 4B/4C being to sign a top notch UFA goalie like Lehner, Markstrom or Holtby and trade Binnington, too. I just think that is an awful lot to expect from one (shortened) off season when the cap is flat, so let's "ride or die" with Binny for one more year and figure this out next offseason.

5. Find a Scorer (or two) – If Tarasenko is done, or at a minimum done for the next regular season, it would sure be nice to make this plural. Even if he is expected back in time for the start of next season (which I seriously doubt at this point) it is clear that we lack a consistent finisher to compliment him, Perron, Schenn and Schwartz. With more cap space (potentially from the retirement or LTIR of Steen) someone like Hall would be a good get, but even if we’re on more of a budget I would like to see Army step up and grab someone like a Hoffman. We know either of these guys are going to have some warts defensively, but hopefully Army can get Berube to see the big picture that sometimes (especially since goaltending is back to being a question mark) you need to be able to score your way out of trouble. Either guy would also contribute to an overall increase in team speed, something that I think is sorely needed, as well as a more reliable power play given that both REALLY like to shoot the puck. None of this covers the possibility that we can add a dynamic young scorer in a trade of Parayko, as I see that as more likely to be a hockey trade than a futures trade given the flat cap.

Recapping with more detailed steps:
1. Sign Petro to 8 x $68M ($8.5M AAV, full NTC, NMC)
2. + 4. Trade Parayko and Allen to DET for the RFA rights to Anthony Mantha, the UFA rights to Jimmy Howard (vet to challenge Husso) and the EDM 2020 2nd (sign Mantha to 6 x $39M - $6.5M AAV)
3. Trade Vince Dunn and CAR 2020 5th to NJD for ARZ 2020 1st and Nick Merkley (depth support for AHL squad)
4. (see 2.)
5. Sign Mike Hoffman 4 x $25M ($6.25M AAV, partial NTC)

In this scenario, going into the 2020 draft we would have the 18th, 26th/27th and 51st OA picks, though I would love to take the 18th and 26th in that scenario and move up to 12th (FLA) to grab someone like Lundell, Jarvis, Guhle or Quinn.

Awful all around.

!. Too much for Petro in flat cap era.
2. Trading Parayko is bad idea but if we do deal him nowhere near enough.
3. Seems low
4. He is valuable insurance. Rather keep him.
5. Terrible contract for floater with baggage.

 

[The Note]

Trading Parayko is not an instant non-starter for me as I imagine it is for others on here, but I would certainly hope the Blues get more than that should they trade him. I've long been on the Hoffman train (I was hoping Armstrong would get him for pennies on the dollar like Wilson did) but I don't think I would want to commit to him at this point as a UFA. I wouldn't add anything to Dunn, even if it's a fifth. The Blues need as many kicks at the can as they can get these next couple of drafts.

 

[MissouriMook]

Awful all around.

!. Too much for Petro in flat cap era.
2. Trading Parayko is bad idea but if we do deal him nowhere near enough.
3. Seems low
4. He is valuable insurance. Rather keep him.
5. Terrible contract for floater with baggage.

1. Then I would argue he's likely gone. How much do you think it takes to keep him?
2. I understand not wanting to trade him (as I expect >90% of this board agrees with that sentiment) but what do YOU think would be a fair return?
3. Again, what do you think Dunn could fetch? I think we'd be lucky to get a 1st for him (the 5th is for Merkley) at this point given his regression, but I expect NJD might be desperate enough and have enough picks in this draft to take the risk that they can get him back on track.
4. I would agree if we didn't need the money to spend elsewhere, but by keeping Allen you're also blocking Husso. Getting Husso some experience and seeing what you have in him at the NHL level might be more important, especially if the plan is to only give Allen 20-25 starts.
5. You're not going to get another ROR in unrestricted free agency, and Hoffman's "baggage" has been greatly overstated. He shoots the puck more than anyone else on the market (which instantly addresses the biggest hole in our PP) and is a bona fide 30 goal threat. The same could be said for Hall, who I believe brings a higher upside, but will undoubtedly require more dollars and term. If we shy away from any and all so-called "one dimensional" forwards we will never be able to fully utilize the talents of guys like Thomas. Not everyone on your team needs to be a great two-way player - that's a recipe for mediocrity.

 

[Thallis]

If we can sign Petro for 8.5M we should do it yesterday

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

If we keep Petro and trade Parayko, I think we would need to find some sort of LHD upgrade because it's extremely weak there when you don't have two horses on the right side to carry the load.

I do like the idea of Hoffman for Thomas's wing, he's the kind of shooting machine Thomas could really use. The last time a Blues forward not named Tarasenko had more shots than him was Steen in 2014-2015. That said, I'm not sure 4 years could get Hoffman, he's quite clearly the 2nd best UFA forward outside of Hall, so I could easily see a more desperate team throwing term at him since the pandemic will likely keep the AAV lower.

 

[Stealth JD]

I think you do everything in your power to re-sign Pietrangelo AND Parayko (in 2-years) and keep the strength of your team in tact. Those 2 guys eating 50-minutes out of 120 allows you to shelter guys like Dunn or Faulk (both of whom should go before either of the above). When both of those guys are on, the Blues are damn near impossible to beat.

 

[mk80]

I think we have to be a player on Pietrangelo in that $8.5M ballpark.

I can definitely see Allen being moved this offseason because he easily frees up that cap space, and there are always teams looking for a goaltending upgrade. Although I wish we could keep him because he is a perfect backup or 1B.

 

[Blueston]

1. Then I would argue he's likely gone. How much do you think it takes to keep him?
2. I understand not wanting to trade him (as I expect >90% of this board agrees with that sentiment) but what do YOU think would be a fair return?
3. Again, what do you think Dunn could fetch? I think we'd be lucky to get a 1st for him (the 5th is for Merkley) at this point given his regression, but I expect NJD might be desperate enough and have enough picks in this draft to take the risk that they can get him back on track.
4. I would agree if we didn't need the money to spend elsewhere, but by keeping Allen you're also blocking Husso. Getting Husso some experience and seeing what you have in him at the NHL level might be more important, especially if the plan is to only give Allen 20-25 starts.
5. You're not going to get another ROR in unrestricted free agency, and Hoffman's "baggage" has been greatly overstated. He shoots the puck more than anyone else on the market (which instantly addresses the biggest hole in our PP) and is a bona fide 30 goal threat. The same could be said for Hall, who I believe brings a higher upside, but will undoubtedly require more dollars and term. If we shy away from any and all so-called "one dimensional" forwards we will never be able to fully utilize the talents of guys like Thomas. Not everyone on your team needs to be a great two-way player - that's a recipe for mediocrity.

1. If we go 8 years on Petro probably needs to be around $7mm per given flat cape. We could go higher on shorter deal, so $8.5mm for 5 could work. This is different world than it was 6 months ago in terms of cap projections.
2. Mantha is real nice player but would need another significant piece or 2. Like Zadina. But I don't think Detroit is good fit, as they are far from contending and dealing for guy like Parayko doesn't make sense. If we were to deal him, which I don't think we should, would like to either see impact player like Matthew Tkachuk or multiple prime young pieces.
3. As you explain it, that actually isn't bad. I was thinking either 1st or NHL ready young forward(s).
4. I would rather deal Bozo than Allen. Like to keep pressure on Binnington. I'm not convinced Husso is legit NHL goalie. If we do deal Allen, would like to see us bring in vet to compete with him.
5. I am not opposed to bringing him in, just not at that $ or term. This year's FA class is going to really get squeezed. Don't want to make moves to put us in cap jail for years.

 

[mk80]

Penguins expect to trade either Murray or Jarry, GM says: report

If/when we move Allen, what about trading for Tristan Jarry? He's an RFA coming off a $675k contract and would provide a bit more stability in net with Binnington at a much cheaper price than Allen. I like Husso but a Binnington-Jarry tandem would be much nicer.

Problem is I don't know what the Penguin's asking price would be for him or if we could match it. Probably it's an unlikely scenario for us to even pull

 

[Alklha]

1. Sign Petro to 8 x $68M ($8.5M AAV, full NTC, NMC)

Even with a flat cap, we'd be insane not to do that deal. Pay your top players and squeeze everyone else.

3. Trade Vince Dunn and CAR 2020 5th to NJD for ARZ 2020 1st and Nick Merkley (depth support for AHL squad)

I'm open to moving Dunn. If we can get a mid-first and dump a contract for Dunn? I'd make that deal.

Our draft history is the likes of Schmaltz, Bokk, Rattie, Kostin and Thompson in the 25-35 range. Get into the 14-21 range and it's Thomas, Tarasenko, Schwartz and Fabbri. It's obviously not simplistic as that, but it does highlight just how much more valuable it is to be picking those spots earlier. I'd want a mid-first to move Dunn.

4. (see 2.)

There is absolutely no way that Jake Allen should be back. We know exactly what he is and he isn't a fit here when he carries a $4.35m cap hit. We also need to know what we have in Husso. That doesn't mean handing Husso the spot, but it means bringing in a cheap back-up and if it is even close then Husso gets the spot.

We should also be looking to move out at least one of Bozak or Steen. The latter is more unlikely with the NTC, but if he knows we're just going to trade him when it expires in February then he might be open to just going somewhere else and getting a full camp there. That's assuming the LTIR talk isn't accurate.

5. Sign Mike Hoffman 4 x $25M ($6.25M AAV, partial NTC)

Too rich for me.

2. + 4. Trade Parayko and Allen to DET for the RFA rights to Anthony Mantha, the UFA rights to Jimmy Howard (vet to challenge Husso) and the EDM 2020 2nd (sign Mantha to 6 x $39M - $6.5M AAV)

I'd rather keep Pietrangelo and Parayko long term. If Pietrangelo does sign an extension, I could see a scenario where we move Parayko.

If we were to do that, then I'd rather target picks and prospects. Drop the salary and either go into the UFA market with the cap space or flip some assets for the right piece. We'd need to know who we're targeting defensively in this scenario.

 

[simon IC]

Respectfully, I think that is a poor return for Parayko. I am against trading Colt at all, but if we did, a 1st round pick and a prospect like Byram, Bahl, Seider, Broberg, or one of the Tkachuks, etc. would be needed to get the conversation started. Yes, I value Parayko that much. I am afraid I have never really liked Hoffman, and certainly wouldn't be willing to pay what he would be asking. We will just have to agree to disagree about one-dimensional players, as I have always disliked them, but I admit my bias there.

 

[MissouriMook]

Without creating another thread, understanding that most don’t want to do it, but to further the discussion, what would you consider a desirable yet realistic return for 2 years of Parayko?

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Without creating another thread, understanding that most don’t want to do it, but to further the discussion, what would you consider a desirable yet realistic return for 2 years of Parayko?

Truth be told, it would have to be a player like Brayden Point. a mid-20s forward or other defenseman that can produce at an incredibly high to elite level. Basically, a player that the other team would say no to.

And this is from a guy that doesn't value Parayko nearly as much as others.

 

[Blueston]

Without creating another thread, understanding that most don’t want to do it, but to further the discussion, what would you consider a desirable yet realistic return for 2 years of Parayko?

I don’t want to trade him, but if we did I would either want young impact forward (M Tkachuk, for example) or package of picks and Young players and prospects (something like Broberg, Pool Party and a 1st).

 

[simon IC]

I would rather just hang on to Parayko and see where we are in two years. I don't think he will ever be as good offensively as Pietrangelo, but I question why he has to be. I would rather he concentrate on being a fast skating shut-down guy who can also contribute a little offensively. As it is, (bubble playoffs aside), he is a perfect #3 defenseman, and 2nd RD. I think what he provides is more useful to the team right now than whatever he returns in a trade. I also often see his name mentioned in exchange for more offensive help. While I do agree we can always use more firepower, is our forward situation so dire that we should consider making a big hole in our defense by trading Parayko? I think I might challenge that notion.

 

[Blueston]

I would rather just hang on to Parayko and see where we are in two years. I don't think he will ever be as good offensively as Pietrangelo, but I question why he has to be. I would rather he concentrate on being a fast skating shut-down guy who can also contribute a little offensively. As it is, (bubble playoffs aside), he is a perfect #3 defenseman, and 2nd RD. I think what he provides is more useful to the team right now than whatever he returns in a trade. I also often see his name mentioned in exchange for more offensive help. While I do agree we can always use more firepower, is our forward situation so dire that we should consider making a big hole in our defense by trading Parayko? I think I might challenge that notion.

I’d be shocked if we dealt Parayko, regardless of what happens with Petro.

 

[Colt55]

Just some thoughts

Trade allen and bozak for 3rd/4th rnd pick

Trade dunn for a first and 2nd,/3rdpick
(Preferably nj, get phx 1st 2020 and car 3rd 2020)

Buyout steen

Let hofer/Husso fight for back up spot.

Promote kostin kyrou, peronovich,Reine, mikola.

Draft at the 18 and 23 over all grab bedt players available.

Package our 3rd plus other picks acquired move into second round get another top pick.

Lines next year could be as follows

Schwartz thomas schenn
Kostin orielly person
Sandford sundqvuist kyrou
Mack barabshev dlr

Faulk petro
Scandella parayko
Peronovich borts Reinke.

 

[Blanick]

It is a coincidence that I opened this thread today and saw someone considering trading Parayko. Me and my friend were just having a discussion yesterday where he made a point that maybe Faulk wasn't brought in as an insurance policy for Pietrangelo maybe he was brought in to be a replacement for Parayko? Faulk is only 1 year older than Parayko and if we were to trade Colt he could get a serious haul for him. There is also those "rumors" that Parayko might want to move on after this current contract is up. I honestly don't know, mostly just talking out of my ass here.

 

[Stealth JD]

Without creating another thread, understanding that most don’t want to do it, but to further the discussion, what would you consider a desirable yet realistic return for 2 years of Parayko?

It would have to include multiple high-impact young guy that haven't made an impact yet. Turcotte, Kupari, Fagemo, Bjornfot...I'd want 3 of those guys, and would be willing to send back a Sanford/Kyrou type with Parayko to make it happen.

But the Blues will lose any trade involving Parayko, in my opinion, and reduce their chances of winning another Cup with this core if they trade a 'core' piece for futures.

 

[The Note]

I think, ultimately, they need to add another top 6 forward if at all possible, and that's how I would hope they use non-dump assets if they choose to. Right now -assuming Tarasenko is gone for most of the season- you've got: ROR, Schwartz, Schenn, and Perron as legit top 6 options. Thomas is probably close. I think Sanford is a fine in a pinch and can provide some depth scoring but I don't think he can be counted on as a fixture in the top 6. Kyrou and Kostin still have a ways to go (particularly the latter).

 

[Colt55]

It would have to include multiple high-impact young guy that haven't made an impact yet. Turcotte, Kupari, Fagemo, Bjornfot...I'd want 3 of those guys, and would be willing to send back a Sanford/Kyrou type with Parayko to make it happen.

But the Blues will lose any trade involving Parayko, in my opinion, and reduce their chances of winning another Cup with this core if they trade a 'core' piece for futures.

If parayko is getting traded we need a first back in this draft and a bluechip d prospect

 

[Alklha]

Without creating another thread, understanding that most don’t want to do it, but to further the discussion, what would you consider a desirable yet realistic return for 2 years of Parayko?

I don't think it's wise to move a defenseman like Parayko for a winger, unless we're talking about one of a handful of wingers. If Armstrong was looking for a one-for-one trade then I'd hope it was targeting a centre.

If we had decided to extend Pietrangelo and move Parayko, then I'd prefer to target younger assets. As @Blueston said, something like Broberg, Puljujärvi & the 14th could be the basis for a deal, assuming that our scouts really liked Broberg.

With the talk that the Oilers are shopping Larsson? Larsson, Broberg, Puljujärvi & the 14th for Parayko & Kostin wouldn't be terrible. We significantly downgrade Parayko, but get a replacement is capable of 20 minutes a night (when healthy) and should be a good partner for Dunn/Perunovich. We swap Kostin for a winger with a higher ceiling. Then we have a couple of prospects with high ceilings that hopefully help us get younger, or we can flip for something that helps us in the short term.

Again though, preference would be to keep Parayko long term... but, if we're only going forward with one of Pietrangelo or Parayko, these options are far preferable to losing Pietragenlo for nothing.

 

[Cotton McKnight]

1. I would like to keep AP.
2. Keep CP, we lose more than what we would be able to get, it just seems to go that way unless you pull trade akin to getting ROR for scraps.
3.Shop Dunn, if you're not going to come out ahead without offering picks, then hold on to him.
4. Trade Shakey Jakey, bring up Husso or bring a vet that can push Binny.
5. I'm the last person to make a guess on who would be a good fit to bring in, and I agree Thomas needs someone on his wing he can feed, should have been Fabbri, but injuries suck.

 

[Blueston]

I’d like to see us take run at Gaudreau. Flames may be looking to break up core and we could use another top offensive piece. Guy is elite talent. Would Bozak (cap need), Dunn, and Kyrou get conversation started?