One of the lovely things about NHL.com is the ability to go back and watch all the goals. I haven’t done this in quite a while since it hasn’t been necessary, but here we go. For those who aren't aware of why I'm making this post, feel lucky. Normally I wouldn't bother but I think it's important to demonstrate the sanity of our little community on occasion.
So let's dig in:
Anaheim game:
Clayton Keller is on the ice for two goals against.
The Duck player completely undresses KConn at the blue line creating an odd man rush which Kase scores on. Silf makes a crafty backhand pass to the trailer Kase who snipes Domingue through traffic. Mostly KConn's fault + a great play by the Duck.
The second goal OEL and Hammer just completely leave two ducks alone in front, one on the side of the net and one in the slot. Cogliano feeds them and the obvious result happens. Keller had just litterally stepped on to the ice as part of a change and barely makes it into the frame by the time the puck is in the net. This isn't a problem because there's a Ducks player up ice as well.
Verdict:
Two goals against, -1, neither his fault.
Vegas Part 1:
Keller was not on ice for any goals.
Vegas Part 2:
Keep in mind that this was the game LITTERALLY NO ONE had anything going for them at all in the first 10 minutes. It was an absolute trainwreck.
Keller is actually even on +/- in this game.
He was however on ice for one goal against so let’s dig in.
Domi and Keller are about to gain the zone, Domi flips the puck toward Keller but the Vegas defenseman is right on him. Keller had absolutely no time and space. Remember, OFFENSIVE ZONE. Vegas quickly recovers the puck. Keller quickly turns around and actually sticks with his guy, #47 on Vegas. He has a chance to go for the takeaway mid ice but doesn’t pull it off.
The first defensive breakdown comes when Hjalmarsson is standing at the blue line with his man, Bellemare. Hammer zigs when he should have zagged and can’t accelerate fast enough to catch up to the carrier. OEL is on the left where he’s supposed to be but Nosek comes flying through into the slot with a massive amount of speed. I don’t think the best defensive D in the league with momentum on his side is gonna catch up to him in time to get a stick in there. But even if he does it’s hardly an obviously stoppable by the Dman.
So if you wanna say Keller was involved, okay. But it was up ice and the 3 main participants in the goal itself were not Keller’s assignment once the puck entered the O zone.
Verdict: Keller involved but hardly even secondarily responsible, Domi forced a pass into traffic, Hammer was flat footed and OEL is playing on a bum knee for a play you need wheels for.
Verdict: NOT Keller’s fault.
Detroit:
The first goal against Keller was out for (a shortie), the Coyotes had just spent a minute or so in Detroit’s zone on the PP. Probably a little gassed as a result. This was early in the season when Tocc was running 4F on the PP more frequently. At this particular time Keller was playing the point primarily and he was here. But he had shifted with Domi who was covering the point now.
Larkin builds up a head of steam with the puck and goes right by Domi. Larkin is pretty good ya know and Domi is hardly a Selke candidate.
OEL to his credit, recognized this was coming and was back prepared for it. But there’s only so much you can do on a 2 on 1. OEL actually makes it over to try and prevent Larkin from making the pass but he makes it anyway (Larkin is good as I mentioned).
But where was Keller? Well he was about ¾’s of the way into the Ozone when this all started and he was the last one back. However there were FOUR Coyotes between he and the goal. Who should get the blame for this one? I’m blaming the scheme and some bad luck + Larkin being good. Keller had no one to defend as the play returned into the D zone because it was a 2 on 1 and the Wings 2 defenders stayed back.
Verdict: Not Keller’s Fault
The second goal against, an empty netter.
Verdict: Have I yet mentioned that +/- is stupid?
Boston:
Keller was on for 2 goals against, once more we dig in.
For the Chara goal, Keller is the further man up ice for the Yotes. He’s our best offensive player and generates a ton of our zone entries. This is logical. The puck is turned around by the Bruins for some reason you can’t see in the video. Pasternak and Marchand lead the rush for a 2 on 1 They make a couple slick passes and eventually Chara comes in as the third man high to take a bang bang pass and shoot it past Domingue. Stepan was on Chara SECONDS before the goal. Either Stepan didn’t think Chara was going to complete the pinch or Stepan thought the assignment rotated. Either Stepan’s or the System’s fault. Keller might have been a factor up ice but there were FOUR other players between him and the puck going in the net. It is a team sport after all.
Verdict: Probably not Keller’s fault.
The Marchand Goal, Keller is lined up at LW on a faceoff in the Ozone. Stepan loses the draw but Keller does what he’s supposed to and go right for the puck. Keller collides with McQuaid knocking both players down in the attempt. Chara makes a savy veteran play behind the net, hammering the puck up ice around the boards looking for a streaking Marchand. He finds him.
Verdict: Not Keller’s fault.
Do I actually need to keep going? Well we’ll do a few more I guess.
Dallas game 1:
Keller was on for 3 against. Sounds bad, I’m scared.
First goal against – Keller is guarding the blue line while Goligoski is in on a pinch.
The puck bobbles up toward Keller and he makes a move for it. He gets a stick on it and POKES IT BACK into the ozone past 3 Stars. They quickly recover however. Maybe Clayton could have gotten it deeper but he had 2 players bearing down on him and he was playing outside his normal position. Think we’ll give the guy a break here.
The Stars dman flips the puck into the neutral zone where Rieder is waiting for it. Rieder bats the puck down with his hand but is hit extremely violently from behind by a Stars player. I’m not a reffing expert, but I think it was cross checking. Stars player recovers the puck because Rieder had just been murdered. But no worries KConn and Goligoski are back there.
Wait did I say no worries? I meant to say PANIC!!!!
Yandmark takes the puck up ice, skates around behind the net and slides it toward a panicking Domingue. Dvorak catches up to the play, almost gets a chance to grab the puck from Faksa but what happens? He basically slides it under his own goalie Louie.
Verdict: Not Keller’s Fault
Hamhuis goal, The Stars are cycling down low.
Faksa and Pitlick win the board battle against OEL and Dvorak. Pitlick takes the puck back into the corner and finds Hamhuis with a pretty good pass from the corner to the weak side point man streaking in. Keller just prior to this had been shading Janmark but saw the pass coming and tried to reach his stick in there and intercept it. If nothing else we can’t say he was doing nothing.
After he peeled off Janmark to go for the pass, the puck was already halfway to Hamhuis who rips it past Domingue who had to move left to right. So, could we say Keller shouldn’t have been covering Janmark (who was on the strong side!) and instead should have been paying closer attention to Hamhuis the weak side D? Maybe.
But he was most definitely not picking flowers on this shift. He was actively engaged guarding Janmark who was looking to get into the slot and Keller attempted to break up the pass. Sometimes shit happens. But I’ll tell ya what, I’ll throw you a bone here and say, Yep Keller should have been on Hamhuis.
Verdict: KELLER’S FAULT, HEY GUYS WE FOUND ONE*
*maybe
Radulov’s goal, an empty netter.
Verdict: HAVE I MENTIONED THAT PLUS MINUS IS STUPID.
It’s getting late now even for this night owl so I think I’ll stop there on the goal by goal analysis. Maybe I’ll finish tomorrow.
Through six games Keller is on the ice for 11 goals against.
10 of those goals he had basically nothing to do with. One of them you maybe could make a case was his fault. And another one he was involved in but probably not the primary or secondary breakdown on the play.
So that’s 9-1-1 in hockey record terms. Now, I know in one of the upcoming games he basically passed the puck to the other team in the D zone. So I’ll just even give you that one before looking at all the rest of the goals. 9-2-1.
(Feel free to look up all these goals on NHL.com like I did, each box for each game has them, it’s super easy).
“BUT WAIT SNIPER, GOALS AREN’T EVERYTHING. SURE MAYBE THE GOALS AREN’T DIRECTLY HIS FAULT BUT HIS PLAY IS LEADING TO THE PUCK ENDING UP IN THE DEFENSIVE ZONE WHICH IS COMPOUNDING PROBLEMS FOR THE GOALIES AND DEFENSEMEN. “
A compelling question, and indeed the right one sir!
But the question itself is hardly evidence. And EVEN IF I take your eye test as gospel that he’s doing all those bad things defensively, RESULTS matter. Clayton Keller is an offense first player and like most offense first players you have to break some eggs to make an omelet. Turnovers happen. Did you know that Joe Thornton leads the league since 2005 in giveaways? Did you know that Brent Burns is second? Did you know that Alex Ovechkin is third?
OFFENSIVE PLAYERS TURN THE PUCK OVER SOMETIMES.
You have to take the bad with the good.
But even if we don’t go conventional we can go unconventional.
Keller’s CF% is over 50, does that sound like a player who’s a drain on his line at first glance?
Did you know that Keller is 43rd in the ENTIRE LEAGUE at primary points / 60 in all situations? Did you know he’s 78th at the same at 5 on 5? Even if you want to ignore that the advanced metrics on Keller are mixed and not outright poor, okay fine. But you still haven't proven your case that he's actually bad either!
Did you know that his linemates are shooting sub 8% and sub 4%? He should arguably have more points than he has now. More good should have come with whatever bad you can throw at him. Hell Domi got absolutely nothing out of two breakaways tonight. Keller is carrying this team.
The ZONE STARTS, J’accuse!
Now listen I’m not the biggest “advanced” metrics fanboy around but even I keep up with the research a bit. Zone starts =/= zone finishes nor is it a reliable indicator of how much time you spent in what zone.
https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15...rts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/
Here's a handy chart that adjusted CF% based on zone starts and compared it to normal CF%. Shockingly it didn't matter a whole lot.
Also I’m not entirely sure where the idea that Keller is starting ¾ shifts in the Ozone? That’s nuts.
Corsica says it’s 44% 5 on 5. 55% any state, but counting offensive zone starts on the power play is monumentally stupid.
I should also add that Domi and Stepan are right in the same area. Domi is pretty young maybe we should put him through waivers and send him down too.
And if you broaden it out to the league, the names right next to Keller make a ton of sense. Sedinx2, Kessel, Thornton, Malkin!
It’s almost like teams deploy their offensive weapons in situations where they would be most useful.
Verdict: Clayton Keller is the best player on this team through 10 games and he's the best thing to happen to this franchise since OEL.
So let's dig in:
Anaheim game:
Clayton Keller is on the ice for two goals against.
The Duck player completely undresses KConn at the blue line creating an odd man rush which Kase scores on. Silf makes a crafty backhand pass to the trailer Kase who snipes Domingue through traffic. Mostly KConn's fault + a great play by the Duck.
The second goal OEL and Hammer just completely leave two ducks alone in front, one on the side of the net and one in the slot. Cogliano feeds them and the obvious result happens. Keller had just litterally stepped on to the ice as part of a change and barely makes it into the frame by the time the puck is in the net. This isn't a problem because there's a Ducks player up ice as well.
Verdict:
Two goals against, -1, neither his fault.
Vegas Part 1:
Keller was not on ice for any goals.
Vegas Part 2:
Keep in mind that this was the game LITTERALLY NO ONE had anything going for them at all in the first 10 minutes. It was an absolute trainwreck.
Keller is actually even on +/- in this game.
He was however on ice for one goal against so let’s dig in.
Domi and Keller are about to gain the zone, Domi flips the puck toward Keller but the Vegas defenseman is right on him. Keller had absolutely no time and space. Remember, OFFENSIVE ZONE. Vegas quickly recovers the puck. Keller quickly turns around and actually sticks with his guy, #47 on Vegas. He has a chance to go for the takeaway mid ice but doesn’t pull it off.
The first defensive breakdown comes when Hjalmarsson is standing at the blue line with his man, Bellemare. Hammer zigs when he should have zagged and can’t accelerate fast enough to catch up to the carrier. OEL is on the left where he’s supposed to be but Nosek comes flying through into the slot with a massive amount of speed. I don’t think the best defensive D in the league with momentum on his side is gonna catch up to him in time to get a stick in there. But even if he does it’s hardly an obviously stoppable by the Dman.
So if you wanna say Keller was involved, okay. But it was up ice and the 3 main participants in the goal itself were not Keller’s assignment once the puck entered the O zone.
Verdict: Keller involved but hardly even secondarily responsible, Domi forced a pass into traffic, Hammer was flat footed and OEL is playing on a bum knee for a play you need wheels for.
Verdict: NOT Keller’s fault.
Detroit:
The first goal against Keller was out for (a shortie), the Coyotes had just spent a minute or so in Detroit’s zone on the PP. Probably a little gassed as a result. This was early in the season when Tocc was running 4F on the PP more frequently. At this particular time Keller was playing the point primarily and he was here. But he had shifted with Domi who was covering the point now.
Larkin builds up a head of steam with the puck and goes right by Domi. Larkin is pretty good ya know and Domi is hardly a Selke candidate.
OEL to his credit, recognized this was coming and was back prepared for it. But there’s only so much you can do on a 2 on 1. OEL actually makes it over to try and prevent Larkin from making the pass but he makes it anyway (Larkin is good as I mentioned).
But where was Keller? Well he was about ¾’s of the way into the Ozone when this all started and he was the last one back. However there were FOUR Coyotes between he and the goal. Who should get the blame for this one? I’m blaming the scheme and some bad luck + Larkin being good. Keller had no one to defend as the play returned into the D zone because it was a 2 on 1 and the Wings 2 defenders stayed back.
Verdict: Not Keller’s Fault
The second goal against, an empty netter.
Verdict: Have I yet mentioned that +/- is stupid?
Boston:
Keller was on for 2 goals against, once more we dig in.
For the Chara goal, Keller is the further man up ice for the Yotes. He’s our best offensive player and generates a ton of our zone entries. This is logical. The puck is turned around by the Bruins for some reason you can’t see in the video. Pasternak and Marchand lead the rush for a 2 on 1 They make a couple slick passes and eventually Chara comes in as the third man high to take a bang bang pass and shoot it past Domingue. Stepan was on Chara SECONDS before the goal. Either Stepan didn’t think Chara was going to complete the pinch or Stepan thought the assignment rotated. Either Stepan’s or the System’s fault. Keller might have been a factor up ice but there were FOUR other players between him and the puck going in the net. It is a team sport after all.
Verdict: Probably not Keller’s fault.
The Marchand Goal, Keller is lined up at LW on a faceoff in the Ozone. Stepan loses the draw but Keller does what he’s supposed to and go right for the puck. Keller collides with McQuaid knocking both players down in the attempt. Chara makes a savy veteran play behind the net, hammering the puck up ice around the boards looking for a streaking Marchand. He finds him.
Verdict: Not Keller’s fault.
Do I actually need to keep going? Well we’ll do a few more I guess.
Dallas game 1:
Keller was on for 3 against. Sounds bad, I’m scared.
First goal against – Keller is guarding the blue line while Goligoski is in on a pinch.
The puck bobbles up toward Keller and he makes a move for it. He gets a stick on it and POKES IT BACK into the ozone past 3 Stars. They quickly recover however. Maybe Clayton could have gotten it deeper but he had 2 players bearing down on him and he was playing outside his normal position. Think we’ll give the guy a break here.
The Stars dman flips the puck into the neutral zone where Rieder is waiting for it. Rieder bats the puck down with his hand but is hit extremely violently from behind by a Stars player. I’m not a reffing expert, but I think it was cross checking. Stars player recovers the puck because Rieder had just been murdered. But no worries KConn and Goligoski are back there.
Wait did I say no worries? I meant to say PANIC!!!!
Yandmark takes the puck up ice, skates around behind the net and slides it toward a panicking Domingue. Dvorak catches up to the play, almost gets a chance to grab the puck from Faksa but what happens? He basically slides it under his own goalie Louie.
Verdict: Not Keller’s Fault
Hamhuis goal, The Stars are cycling down low.
Faksa and Pitlick win the board battle against OEL and Dvorak. Pitlick takes the puck back into the corner and finds Hamhuis with a pretty good pass from the corner to the weak side point man streaking in. Keller just prior to this had been shading Janmark but saw the pass coming and tried to reach his stick in there and intercept it. If nothing else we can’t say he was doing nothing.
After he peeled off Janmark to go for the pass, the puck was already halfway to Hamhuis who rips it past Domingue who had to move left to right. So, could we say Keller shouldn’t have been covering Janmark (who was on the strong side!) and instead should have been paying closer attention to Hamhuis the weak side D? Maybe.
But he was most definitely not picking flowers on this shift. He was actively engaged guarding Janmark who was looking to get into the slot and Keller attempted to break up the pass. Sometimes shit happens. But I’ll tell ya what, I’ll throw you a bone here and say, Yep Keller should have been on Hamhuis.
Verdict: KELLER’S FAULT, HEY GUYS WE FOUND ONE*
*maybe
Radulov’s goal, an empty netter.
Verdict: HAVE I MENTIONED THAT PLUS MINUS IS STUPID.
It’s getting late now even for this night owl so I think I’ll stop there on the goal by goal analysis. Maybe I’ll finish tomorrow.
Through six games Keller is on the ice for 11 goals against.
10 of those goals he had basically nothing to do with. One of them you maybe could make a case was his fault. And another one he was involved in but probably not the primary or secondary breakdown on the play.
So that’s 9-1-1 in hockey record terms. Now, I know in one of the upcoming games he basically passed the puck to the other team in the D zone. So I’ll just even give you that one before looking at all the rest of the goals. 9-2-1.
(Feel free to look up all these goals on NHL.com like I did, each box for each game has them, it’s super easy).
“BUT WAIT SNIPER, GOALS AREN’T EVERYTHING. SURE MAYBE THE GOALS AREN’T DIRECTLY HIS FAULT BUT HIS PLAY IS LEADING TO THE PUCK ENDING UP IN THE DEFENSIVE ZONE WHICH IS COMPOUNDING PROBLEMS FOR THE GOALIES AND DEFENSEMEN. “
A compelling question, and indeed the right one sir!
But the question itself is hardly evidence. And EVEN IF I take your eye test as gospel that he’s doing all those bad things defensively, RESULTS matter. Clayton Keller is an offense first player and like most offense first players you have to break some eggs to make an omelet. Turnovers happen. Did you know that Joe Thornton leads the league since 2005 in giveaways? Did you know that Brent Burns is second? Did you know that Alex Ovechkin is third?
OFFENSIVE PLAYERS TURN THE PUCK OVER SOMETIMES.
You have to take the bad with the good.
But even if we don’t go conventional we can go unconventional.
Keller’s CF% is over 50, does that sound like a player who’s a drain on his line at first glance?
Did you know that Keller is 43rd in the ENTIRE LEAGUE at primary points / 60 in all situations? Did you know he’s 78th at the same at 5 on 5? Even if you want to ignore that the advanced metrics on Keller are mixed and not outright poor, okay fine. But you still haven't proven your case that he's actually bad either!
Did you know that his linemates are shooting sub 8% and sub 4%? He should arguably have more points than he has now. More good should have come with whatever bad you can throw at him. Hell Domi got absolutely nothing out of two breakaways tonight. Keller is carrying this team.
The ZONE STARTS, J’accuse!
Now listen I’m not the biggest “advanced” metrics fanboy around but even I keep up with the research a bit. Zone starts =/= zone finishes nor is it a reliable indicator of how much time you spent in what zone.
https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15...rts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/
Here's a handy chart that adjusted CF% based on zone starts and compared it to normal CF%. Shockingly it didn't matter a whole lot.
Also I’m not entirely sure where the idea that Keller is starting ¾ shifts in the Ozone? That’s nuts.
Corsica says it’s 44% 5 on 5. 55% any state, but counting offensive zone starts on the power play is monumentally stupid.
I should also add that Domi and Stepan are right in the same area. Domi is pretty young maybe we should put him through waivers and send him down too.
And if you broaden it out to the league, the names right next to Keller make a ton of sense. Sedinx2, Kessel, Thornton, Malkin!
It’s almost like teams deploy their offensive weapons in situations where they would be most useful.
Verdict: Clayton Keller is the best player on this team through 10 games and he's the best thing to happen to this franchise since OEL.
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