First Round Playoff Talk Thread: Islanders vs Penguins

[PK Cronin]

JUST. PLAY. WAHLSTROM.

He really didn't make much of an improvement statistically, it's a system issue more than anything else. That's why our second unit has become the first unit, they're better at executing (still bad).

 

[The Winter Soldier]

This series comes down to Nelson. And Eberle. And Bailey and Beauvillier. And Wahlstrom. And Leddy. And Pageau and Palmieri and Zajac. And Pulock, Pelech, and Dobson. And Greene and Mayfield. And Cizikas and Clutterbuck, definitely Martin. And Barzal and maybe Leo. And of course Varlamov and maybe Sorokin.

And Trotz. We got this.

I think this is the right approach. This series will not come down to depending on one player, you may as well name all 20 players. The Islanders really are more a product of the sum of their parts, than depending on one player as the means to their success. As long as all 20 players are pulling on that rope, I have confidence the Isles can play with any team in the NHL. It's going to be a long tough series.

 

[CaptDenisPotvin]

Still a little puzzled as to why we haven't seen Wally on the Barzal/Eberle line....He might be the worst passer we have as a forward but Barzal and Eberle carry the puck well and both pass really well Wally just has to find openings for Barzal and Eberle to feed him. That would probably leave Pageau to tote around Palmieri, Zajac, Komarov, Dal Colle on the 3rd line....I don't think anything will change with the fourth line for the first few games anyway.

 

[Hunn]

Leddy will likely get the most ice time of any defenseman. So having him key the transition to offense as well as he did in the bubble last year will be vital to us. Not sure just how much Leds being paired with Mayfield affected his game this year, but something was off about him.

Offensively, he just had the 2nd best season of his career, the best by far under Trotz. The only change was being paired with Mayfield.

 

[JKP]

I think this is the right approach. This series will not come down to depending on one player, you may as well name all 20 players. The Islanders really are more a product of the sum of their parts, than depending on one player as the means to their success. As long as all 20 players are pulling on that rope, I have confidence the Isles can play with any team in the NHL. It's going to be a long tough series.

That said, a hot goalie can go a long, long way…

 

[RWWallpaper]

Just picked up two tickets for game four amongst my unvaccinated brothers and sisters… Prices seemed pretty fair too

 

[Big L]

These days off should help the isles. Hopefully.

 

[BelovedIsles]

The Athletic unanimously favored the Isles, drawing on that goaltending and D win in the playoffs.

 

[JZCislesHockey]

Got tickets for games 3 and 4.

 

[13th Floor]

I feel this series is 50/50 but gun to my head I say Pens. So maybe 51/49.

They played us very well this year. There were some bad beats in there, but they clogged us up very frustratingly. Still, our team has playoff experience, is built for the playoff grind, and has the advantage in goal.

The Pens are way deeper than 2019. I hope Malkin stays shitty because we'll need that. We need to be physical early in this series, but we absolutely need to keep the game 5 on 5. I think Trotz will design the roster/lines with that mind.

I also hope Beau stays hot. We need players like him, JGP, Eberle, and other streaky guys to get on the scoresheet early. Funny that my entire thought process on where goals will come from completely skips over our deadline acquisitions. I don't hate the Zajac pick up at all (another topic), but shit can Palmieri go off in the playoffs please? What a waste so far.

Someone else mentioned Leddy and I think he is a big key in this series. The Pens played us in the neutral zone very well, blocking our breakout plays. We need Leddy to transport the puck.

 

[Seph]

He really didn't make much of an improvement statistically, it's a system issue more than anything else. That's why our second unit has become the first unit, they're better at executing (still bad).

The 2nd unit has actually produced pretty well, if we look at the numbers. Going to use Barzal and Bailey's numbers here, since they're the primary and most consistent fixtures on the two units and dont really get moved between the two. When Barzal is on the ice, the PP scores at only 5.21 g/60, which would put us at 27th in the league if the Bailey unit did the same. On the flipside, when Bailey is on the ice, the PP scores at a rate of 8.89 g/60, which is ~70% higher than Barzal's unit and would put our PP at 4th best in the league if the 1st unit matched it.

The good news though is that Barzal's unit improved over the season, and in the last month of play, Barzal's on ice GF/60 on the PP was at 9.39, and the combined units as a whole had the 12th highest GF/60 (ok, still not great, but very good for us) for that time period. So, hopefully, that recent trend can continue into the playoffs.

 

[Goombha]

It seems like the past two seasons, the Isles played horrible at the end, then unexpectedly played extremely well in the playoffs and made it a lot further than anyone thought. That's where my hope rests once again. Otherwise, the expected happens and the Pens win it in 5, maybe 6.

 

[PJGooch]

Anyone have a clip of that NHL on NBC commercial from a few years ago of the last playoffs at the Coliseum? Can't find it on YouTube anymore.

 

[PK Cronin]

The 2nd unit has actually produced pretty well, if we look at the numbers. Going to use Barzal and Bailey's numbers here, since they're the primary and most consistent fixtures on the two units and dont really get moved between the two. When Barzal is on the ice, the PP scores at only 5.21 g/60, which would put us at 27th in the league if the Bailey unit did the same. On the flipside, when Bailey is on the ice, the PP scores at a rate of 8.89 g/60, which is ~70% higher than Barzal's unit and would put our PP at 4th best in the league if the 1st unit matched it.

The good news though is that Barzal's unit improved over the season, and in the last month of play, Barzal's on ice GF/60 on the PP was at 9.39, and the combined units as a whole had the 12th highest GF/60 (ok, still not great, but very good for us) for that time period. So, hopefully, that recent trend can continue into the playoffs.

There was a hot stretch for the PP when Wahlstrom was initially called up, then it cooled back off after 8 games or so. The recent trend (before the last two games of the season I think) is that the power play struggled at the same rate for quite some time, whether Wahlstrom was in the lineup or not.

 

[BMOK33]

6 of 16 ESPN picks actually went with the Isles, only 2 picked the Caps! I've been following for years and in general Levy/Buccigross have been the most accurate when its come to picking the Isles series. This time they both went 7 but Buccigross went Pens and Levy Isles.

 

[BrockLobster]

Just picked up two tickets for game four amongst my unvaccinated brothers and sisters… Prices seemed pretty fair too

Really? I paid an obnoxious price.

 

[beach]

Just need the hypnotist to convince him he's playing in the Minnesota summer league again....

Just let him fire up a fatty during pregame. The creativity will shine through.

 

[MJF]

6 of 16 ESPN picks actually went with the Isles, only 2 picked the Caps! I've been following for years and in general Levy/Buccigross have been the most accurate when its come to picking the Isles series. This time they both went 7 but Buccigross went Pens and Levy Isles.

Buccigross is from Pittsburgh, Levy is from the Island, so there's that.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

The power play is night and day different with Wahsltrom….period. Not only because it has functioned immensely better with him on the ice, but he is the one forward who constantly and consistently shoots the puck on net.

Hell, he would have 30 goals this season if he averaged 15-16 minutes and 2 on the PP every night....

Where does he rank on PPP/60? Of players in the ENTIRE NHL who average 1 minute plus on the PP he ranks 8th:

1. Hoffman (SL)-10.072
2. Ehlers (WPG)- 9.987
3. McDavid (EDM)-9.671
4. Hintz (DAL)- 9.29
5. Perron (SL)- 8.28
6. Draisaitl (EDM)- 8.27
7. Crosby (PIT)- 7.93
8. WAHLSTROM (NYI)- 7.85

That is pretty nice company to be in....

Ahead of guys like Trochek and Aho (CAR), Backstrom, Oshie and Ovechkin (WASH), MacKinnon, Burakorsky and Rantenen (COL), Panarin (NYR), Marchand (BOS), Kopitar (LAK) and Eichel (Buff).

Half of our PP goals he has been on the ice when we netted them, despite being 11th (8th among forwards) on PP ice time

No, he doesn't solve the entry problem but once it is in the zone he is the #1 scoring option while Bailey is the obvious #1 passing option...

 

[PK Cronin]

The power play is night and day different with Wahsltrom….period. Not only because it has functioned immensely better with him on the ice, but he is the one forward who constantly and consistently shoots the puck on net.

Hell, he would have 30 goals this season if he averaged 15-16 minutes and 2 on the PP every night....

Where does he rank on PPP/60? Of players in the ENTIRE NHL who average 1 minute plus on the PP he ranks 8th:

1. Hoffman (SL)-10.072
2. Ehlers (WPG)- 9.987
3. McDavid (EDM)-9.671
4. Hintz (DAL)- 9.29
5. Perron (SL)- 8.28
6. Draisaitl (EDM)- 8.27
7. Crosby (PIT)- 7.93
8. WAHLSTROM (NYI)- 7.85

That is pretty nice company to be in....

Ahead of guys like Trochek and Aho (CAR), Backstrom, Oshie and Ovechkin (WASH), MacKinnon, Burakorsky and Rantenen (COL), Panarin (NYR), Marchand (BOS), Kopitar (LAK) and Eichel (Buff).

Half of our PP goals he has been on the ice when we netted them, despite being 11th (8th among forwards) on PP ice time

No, he doesn't solve the entry problem but once it is in the zone he is the #1 scoring option while Bailey is the obvious #1 passing option...

Stop using PPP/60 (a flawed metric) to exaggerate how good he is and just look at the success rate of the power play itself when he's on the ice. Outside of the initial bump, it's been just as bad as always. He hasn't been some power play savior. I want him on the power play because he does shoot it well, but putting him there doesn't make the power play good by any stretch. The entry isn't the only other problem with the PP.

Your TOI complaint is also just you exaggerating. He's 8th! Which means he's solidly on one of the units. What you fail to mention is that he averages 1:44 per game. The people in front of him? Pageau - 1:47, Beauvillier - 1:49, Bailey - 2:01, Nelson - 2:07, Eberle - 2:18, Lee - 2:25, Barzal - 2:30. One of those players above him isn't even an option anymore. Pageau and Beauvillier have under 5 more seconds per game than Wahlstrom. That's not even taking into account that average PP time per game or total time is impacted by who is in the lineup. For example, if Wahlstrom isn't playing the Barzal unit is more likely to get more ice time than the Bailey unit. That can inflate the numbers and doesn't show what the PP TOI average is when Wahlstrom is actually dressed.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Stop using PPP/60 (a flawed metric) to exaggerate how good he is and just look at the success rate of the power play itself when he's on the ice. Outside of the initial bump, it's been just as bad as always. He hasn't been some power play savior. I want him on the power play because he does shoot it well, but putting him there doesn't make the power play good by any stretch. The entry isn't the only other problem with the PP.

Sorry, but every metric (as well as actually watching it) says it is night and day with him on it as opposed to off. Even using Corsi, only he and Bailey have been remotely good on the PP this season:

CF% on PP:

1. Bailey (2:00 minutes) 7.8
2. Oliver Wahlstrom 7.6

None of the other players with a minute or more average ice time are above 5.

And I didn't just use PPP/60 (which isn't flawed by any means as long as you are getting ice time)- but I also used the fact that HE HAS PERSONALLY BEEN ON THE ICE FOR HALF OUR POWER PLAY GOALS and considering he is EIGHTH among forwards in PP ice time, that too speaks volumes.

Collectively, when you put all that together it isn't exaggeration or labeling him a savior by any means (especially when he DOES NOT HANDLE THE PUCK- WHICH IS OUR #1 PROBLEM- INCLUDING THE ENTRY) but it is absolutely factual we are much much better with him on it....

 

[BMOK33]

Sorry, but every metric (as well as actually watching it) says it is night and day with him on it as opposed to off. Even using Corsi, only he and Bailey have been remotely good on the PP this season:

CF% on PP:

1. Bailey (2:00 minutes) 7.8
2. Oliver Wahlstrom 7.6

None of the other players with a minute or more average ice time are above 5.

And I didn't just use PPP/60 (which isn't flawed by any means as long as you are getting ice time)- but I also used the fact that HE HAS PERSONALLY BEEN ON THE ICE FOR HALF OUR POWER PLAY GOALS and considering he is EIGHTH among forwards in PP ice time, that too speaks volumes.

Collectively, when you put all that together it isn't exaggeration or labeling him a savior by any means (especially when he DOES NOT HANDLE THE PUCK- WHICH IS OUR #1 PROBLEM- INCLUDING THE ENTRY) but it is absolutely factual we are much much better with him on it....

I almost think its a lock that barring there being a run to the SCF we will see the PP coaching change yet again. It won't do anything though unless they somehow get a big scoring forward this offseason and we know Lou is not going near Hoffman or Eichel since both guys do not know what the word defense means

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Stop using PPP/60 (a flawed metric) to exaggerate how good he is and just look at the success rate of the power play itself when he's on the ice. Outside of the initial bump, it's been just as bad as always. He hasn't been some power play savior. I want him on the power play because he does shoot it well, but putting him there doesn't make the power play good by any stretch. The entry isn't the only other problem with the PP.

Your TOI complaint is also just you exaggerating. He's 8th! Which means he's solidly on one of the units. What you fail to mention is that he averages 1:44 per game. The people in front of him? Pageau - 1:47, Beauvillier - 1:49, Bailey - 2:01, Nelson - 2:07, Eberle - 2:18, Lee - 2:25, Barzal - 2:30. One of those players above him isn't even an option anymore. Pageau and Beauvillier have under 5 more seconds per game than Wahlstrom. That's not even taking into account that average PP time per game or total time is impacted by who is in the lineup. For example, if Wahlstrom isn't playing the Barzal unit is more likely to get more ice time than the Bailey unit. That can inflate the numbers and doesn't show what the PP TOI average is when Wahlstrom is actually dressed.

You do realize you edited your post to include a paragraph that actually supports the PPP/60 metric, yes? And yet you called it flawed the previous one.

Look, Wahlstrom is not a savior nor can he (again because he doesn't handle the puck on the PP) alone solve the woes, but WITHOUT A DOUBT he is and has been one of ONLY two good power play performers this season. Everyone else has been average or below average. That is just FACTUAL....period

 

[LeapOnOver]

The Athletic unanimously favored the Isles, drawing on that goaltending and D win in the playoffs.

Huh, the article i read had the Pens with the edge 60-40

 

[PK Cronin]

Sorry, but every metric (as well as actually watching it) says it is night and day with him on it as opposed to off. Even using Corsi, only he and Bailey have been remotely good on the PP this season:

CF% on PP:

1. Bailey (2:00 minutes) 7.8
2. Oliver Wahlstrom 7.6

None of the other players with a minute or more average ice time are above 5.

And I didn't just use PPP/60 (which isn't flawed by any means as long as you are getting ice time)- but I also used the fact that HE HAS PERSONALLY BEEN ON THE ICE FOR HALF OUR POWER PLAY GOALS and considering he is EIGHTH among forwards in PP ice time, that too speaks volumes.

Collectively, when you put all that together it isn't exaggeration or labeling him a savior by any means (especially when he DOES NOT HANDLE THE PUCK- WHICH IS OUR #1 PROBLEM- INCLUDING THE ENTRY) but it is absolutely factual we are much much better with him on it....

I think we're talking past each other so I'll try to clarify as best I can.

The New York Islanders power play is bad, it's 18.8% on the season and is ranked 21st in the league. After Wahlstrom's initial boost to the power play (until the end of February) the power play has operated below that 18.8% until April 23 (I didn't look up any stats after that).

Whether or not Wahlstrom is the best option to be on the power play isn't something I'm debating. He should be on the power play. I'm saying, and the stats support, that the power play is not more effective (read: converting at a higher percentage) when he's on it than when he's not.

You're using all of these proxies for production instead of just looking at the PP% during the games in which he plays and is given ice time. Is it good that the PP gets more shots when he's on the ice? Yes. Is it good that he's producing points with the ice time he's been given? Yes. Does that make the power play better as a whole because he's on it? No, it does not. There is no meaningful difference between the success rate of the power play when he's on it verses when he's not (up until that April 23 date).

The reason PPP/60 is or any /60 stat is flawed is because it's treating all minutes as the same, which just isn't the case. There are some players who can continue their point production when given more minutes and there are some players who can't. I also don't care what his production is on the power play, I care whether the power play is actually going to score. Whether that's Bailey, Wahlstrom, or they're shooting the puck off Brian Strait's head in the press box, it's irrelevant who is scoring the goals.

Edit: To piggyback off our previous conversation and how I broke down the season into different stretches (mostly 8 game ones).

From 4/3-4/18 the team played in 8 games, Wahlstrom played in all of those games. The team's PP was at 8.3% over those games. He then sat out for the next 3 games 4/20-4/24, the PP was 42.9% during that short stretch. Wahlstrom played the final 8 games and the PP was 21.4%. There hasn't been much of a correlation between Wahlstrom playing and the team succeeding on their power play chances.

From March 1 until the end of the season the PP% is 14.3.