Series Discussion: First Round matchup Jets vs Wild

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by Dayofthedogs, Mar 11, 2018.

?

Who will win this series?

  1. Jets in 4

    5.6%
  2. Jets in 5

    37.2%
  3. Jets in 6

    42.8%
  4. Jets in 7

    7.0%
  5. Wild in 4

    0.5%
  6. Wild in 5

    1.9%
  7. Wild in 6

    3.3%
  8. Wild in 7

    1.9%
  1. Dayofthedogs

    Dayofthedogs Bettman's hammer

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    Inspired by my new found technological abilities and Zhammy's incredible GDT work I have decided to use my powers for the enrichment of the HF Jets community.

    I will be following up this initial post with comprehensive analysis of both teams in head to head categories followed by in depth player vs player stats for the whole projected playoff line ups.

    I plan on using Corsica, hockey-reference and Bill Comeau's sites for reference. If anyone has any other tools or sites to help me out please pass them along.

    I'll be using normal stats, Fancy stats, homely stats and any other stats I can find in an effort to leave no stone left unturned to provide the most descriptive analysis possible.

    Analysis will begin in the next 48 hours and expect another thread for a potential Stars Matchup!
     
  2. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    I hope all your work isn’t for naught. There’s still a 45% chance we play someone other than the Wild in the first rd

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Dayofthedogs

    Dayofthedogs Bettman's hammer

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    Me too!

    Oh well, if things change I should be able to pivot pretty quick.
     
  4. DudeWhereIsMakar

    DudeWhereIsMakar Originator of the username

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    Wild will be easy if we face them first round. Dallas might be the challenging one of Colorado, Minnesota and Dallas.

    Also, Minnesota has scored fewer goals and let in more than us.
     
  5. Mortimer Snerd

    Mortimer Snerd Deregistered User

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    I don't think there will be any 'easy' matchups in the playoffs.
     
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  6. HPsauce

    HPsauce Registered User

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    I have a feeling that Minnesota will be a hard match up for us. I can see that series going 6 or 7 games.

    I give the edge to the Jets, just more fire power.

    If you look at the final games for Dallas and Minne, it's hard to imagine Dallas not passing Minne.

    They also play 2 games against each out down the stretch so it'll likely come down to those games to decide who finishes 3rd.
     
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  7. Paul Maurice

    Paul Maurice Paul Maurice

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    Gotta win them all, don't care who we get in the first round.
     
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  8. SUX2BU

    SUX2BU Lighten up, Francis ......

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    There’s no stats to measure heart and desire to win the Cup
     
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  9. Ducky10

    Ducky10 President Patrik Laine Fan Club Sponsor

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    The Jets success will come down to their ability to dictate playing their game. If they do that, it doesn't matter who they play.

    Last time in they tried to beat the Ducks at their game and along with ****ty goaltending it cost them. I don't expect they will repeat that regardless of opponent. They've played a consistent style all year, it's what they'll bring.
     
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  10. SM17

    SM17 Registered User

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    Agree. In fact, would prefer Minnesota if only for the easier travel schedule. I hope Nashville has to play one of the California teams.
     
  11. White Out 403

    White Out 403 I'm usually right.

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    I thought we did really well against Anaheim actually. It's just that pavelec coughed up a third period lead in every single freaking game
     
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  12. Ducky10

    Ducky10 President Patrik Laine Fan Club Sponsor

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    True, mentioned that. I thought they tried a bit too hard to bang with them though, they didn't try to play with much skill. This team is much more skilled, I hope they stick to what they've been doing is all.
     
  13. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    It’s entirely possible that the Moose could also face the Wild in the first round
     
  14. Dayofthedogs

    Dayofthedogs Bettman's hammer

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    Winnipeg Jets
    O'Connor - Chef - Wheels
    Ehlers - Nuts - Laine
    Matty P - Little - Roslo

    Copp - Lowry - Armia

    JoMo - Trouba
    Toby - Buff
    Kuli - Myers


    Helle
    Mase


    Minnesota Wild
    Zucker - Stall - Granny
    Parise - Koivu - Coyle
    Nino - Ek - Ennis
    Winnik - Cullen - Fugly


    Sutter - Spurg
    Brodin - Dumb
    Olaf - Prosser

    Dubnyk

    Stalock



    *Season series 3-1 Jets!!

    /////////Winnipeg Jets ///Minnesota Wild


    record//////41 -18- 9 ////////39- 23- 7
    home ///////27 -7- 2 /////////24 -5- 6
    road ///////17 -11- 7/////////15 -18- 1

    points % .669 (5th) .616 (7th)

    GPG 3.31 (4th) 3.09 (10th)

    GAA 2.60 (5th) 2.84 (13th)

    PP 24.5% (2nd) 21.4% (9th)

    PK 82.9% (6th) 79.9 (17th)

    EVGF 163 (7th) 164 (6th)

    EVGA 133 (4th) 144 (12th)


    Fancy

    5 vs 5 aggregate adjusted stats via Corsica

    Winnipeg Jets Minnesota Wild

    CF/60
    50.85 (15th) 46.11 (28th)

    CA/60 47.6 (4th) 50.3 (17th)

    CF% 51.65 (9th) 47.71 (26th)

    GF% 54.55 (4th) 52.47 (11th)

    xGF% 52.43 (8th) 54.1 (1st)

    Pen Diff -14 (24th) -17 (26th)

    Sh% 8.64 (6th) 8.35 (8th)

    SV% 92.46 (15th) 92.62 (14th)

    PDO 101.1 (7th) 100.97 (8th)



    In summary through a quick look at some numbers we see the jets hold a decided advantage in almost all areas of normal stats GPG, GAA, PP, PK etc. If The Jets aren't ahead they are right behind the Wild with a number of decided advantages for the Jets in special teams where The Jets 2nd ranked PP goes against The Wilds 17th ranked PK.

    Interestingly the only area The Wild have a decided advantage over The Jets is corsica's xGF% (expected goals for percentage 5vs5 adjusted) model which has The Wild as the number 1 team in the league.

    Looks good for The Jets but maybe not quite as good as I initially thought.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2018
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  15. Dayofthedogs

    Dayofthedogs Bettman's hammer

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    looks like I need to learn how to format better
     
  16. Dayofthedogs

    Dayofthedogs Bettman's hammer

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  17. HPsauce

    HPsauce Registered User

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  18. DashingDane

    DashingDane Registered User

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    Minnesota is the only team (outside of Nash) that kind of worries me in the first round. I get a bad feeling for some reason. They are a very experienced team and I believe that could influence a first round matchup for a team where it’s “new to po’s”.
     
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  19. MrBoJangelz71

    MrBoJangelz71 Registered User

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    Not that I want to get into a pavs debate, but your narrative on Pavs coughing up the lead in the 3rd of every game of the Ducks series, is a false narrative.

    I’ve gone over the goals, one by one, and Pavs was at fault for 3 of the goals, the rest he was hung out to dry.
     
  20. Dayofthedogs

    Dayofthedogs Bettman's hammer

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    Xgoals (expected goals). Its a more in depth Corsi that takes into account shot location and other factors. I've heard corsica's model has some flaws and I believe that's where the data comes from for this graph.
     
  21. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    Why do we care about our rolling ten game averages with so many key players out?It doesn't really tell us much if we get healthy. Isn't the size of our sick bay the most important thing?
     
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  22. Channelcat

    Channelcat Registered User

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    Im not sure, but the first one is a kitty cat.
     
  23. Dayofthedogs

    Dayofthedogs Bettman's hammer

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    I believe getting healthy will provide a huge boost. For me the most interesting thing was how much the wild have been improving since Christmas and less to do with us.

    I'd expect Lowry and Trouba to specifically go a long way to improving shot metrics
     
  24. Dayofthedogs

    Dayofthedogs Bettman's hammer

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  25. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    The Wild started the year very injured to begin the year, they also had cap issues so they had to send everyone back to Iowa on days off. They couldn't even have full practices. Remember the practice weeks teams got in October? That didn't help the Wild much. So that was part of it. I follow Russo on twitter. So here's a fun Wild fact. Check out the Wild record since they claimed Nate Prosser on waivers. And check out the Blues record since then....it's like trading places.
     

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