First round draft bargains...

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by db23, Jul 19, 2004.

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  1. db23

    db23 Guest

    How about a handful of players taken in the first round that should have gone higher except for circumstances that can be overcome in the future?

    For me, I would start with Evgeni Malkin even though he could only have been taken one spot higher. Fourthly things will make him ultimately a better player than Ovechkin. First, the fact that he is nearly a full year younger. Secondly the fact that his draft season was interrupted by a serious concussion, which affected his play and his offensive production. Who knows what he could have done with the games he missed along with those that he was less than 1005. As it was his point per game average was very close to Ovechkin's. Thirdly, Malkin is a natural centre with a good all round game, which is the most valuable commodity in the game. Finally, he wins on character. He is a better team player, a natural leader and will be less likely to submit to his own ego over the long haul.

    Rotislav Olesz. Once again, a natural centre with a good all round game. Once again had his status affected by a serious concussion. Once again, an unselfish character player and team leader. Should have gone third overall.

    A.J. Thelen. If he and Cam Barker were playing in the same league, Thelen would be the easy choice as top defenceman. He has all the same tools as Barker and a better toolbox to carry them in. Fourth pick.

    Kyle Chipchura. Another all round centre whose draft year was diminish by a long term impact injury, in his case a torn groin. A year ago, faced with the same situation, Johan Fansson chose to opt out fo the draft rather than face the prospect of being taken much later than he felt he deserved. Chipchura came back in 3 weeks, but hardly scored at all over the second half of the season. He was tied in points with 4th overall pick Andrew Ladd at the time of his injury. shoudl have gone behind the guys above and the Finns Tukonen and Nokelainen.

    Robbie Schremp. So, Robbie's bored with junior hockey and already looking ahead. Considering how far ahead of most of his pers he is talent wise, that is not so surprising or disturbing. Once he is playing for the big bucks, I think that Schremp will approach the game quite differently. I would have a hard time risking my knees each time out for $500 a week when I knew there was millions waiting as long as I stayed healthy for a few more months as well.
     
  2. dumpnchase

    dumpnchase Registered User

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    Robbie Schremp is the best bargain as long as his talent doesn't disappear at the NHL level.
     
  3. GorillazXL

    GorillazXL Registered User

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    Tukonen at 11th,...my goodness this kid is way better then Ladd and he fell this far down, LA picked up a gem.

    Schwarz at 17th, considering a great performance at the WJC he falls to St.Louis at 17th... very lucky for St.Louis

    Wolski at 21st I thought there's no way he'll slip out of 15

    Schremp at 25th... I still pinch myself that the Oilers managed to get this guy at 25

    GXL
     
  4. db23

    db23 Guest

    Have to mainly agree with you on those. Tukonen is so young. I think he was just a week from being in next year's draft. On the other hand, he scored the same amount of points in the SM Liiga as Jani Rita did at the same age. Rita was also big and fast. Schwarz should have been the first goalie selected, but I'm not big on using top choices on goalies. If you look around the league there are as many late round picks tending net as first round picks. With Wolski, the potential of criminal charges had to be a factor. It's one thing to have a "bad attitude", a la Schremp, but a whole other thing to be a convicted criminal. Complicates things considerably.
     
  5. Captain Conservative

    Captain Conservative Registered User

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    But Ovechkin has better stats! :joker:
     
  6. EroCaps

    EroCaps Registered User

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    That Malkin paragraph has more holes than Oscar the Grouch's underpants.
     
  7. Chimaera

    Chimaera same ol' Caps

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    Whatever you're smoking pass some around...

    You must be from Pittsburgh.


    I hate to turn this into a Malkin v. Ovechkin thread, but you're asking for it...

    One, he's not a full year younger. 2, I'm not sure how a concussion could be considered a positive thing. In any situation. I would think a concussion could only be considered a bad thing. What if they keep happening? (I hope they don't, but they can become chronic) Ovechkin (knock on wood) isn't facing that same situation. The point situation is a wash, both have put up good numbers, as both should. Ovechkin's done more in some places, Malkin in others. Your center idea is pretty solid for the most part, but look at who carried Calgary to the finals... definitely not a center. And you're overlooking the idea that Ovechkin has played center some. Ovechkin should become a good player, whether he'll be any less valuable just because he's not a center, is debateable.

    And lastly on the character issue, what have you been reading? Though confident, (and I wouldn't see that as a negative) Ovechkin was extremely personable, outgoing, and for the most part it's hard to find a knock on him as far as character goes. Having met the guy, I think you've got the Pittsburgh goggles on.
     
  8. ZombieMatt

    ZombieMatt Registered User

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    I completely disagree that Malkin is a better player than Ovechkin. I actually tend to look in the opposite direction, and think that maybe Malkin wasn't even the second best player in the draft. However, that is contrary to the overwhelming majority, so I'll just keep quiet on that front.

    I also don't think Chipchura is really a value pick. He's a Ryan Kesler like pick. High probability of making it, reasonably low upside in my opinion.
     
  9. db23

    db23 Guest

    Not really. On a point per game basis, they are very close. Considering the fact that Malkin is a year younger and had to overcome a serious concussion early in the year, it makes his numbers all the more impressive. In terms of character, Ovechkin may be a nice guy, but Malkin is much more of a team first guy and a leader on the ice. It isn't even close in that regard. The same applies to Olesz and Chipchura, they have the leadership intangibles that may not show in their scoring stats but are worth a lot to team success. All three of those players, along with Nokelainen, have the best sense of what it takes to win, in my opinion.
     
  10. Epsilon

    Epsilon #basta

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    db23 prospect evaluation formula:

    A = goals
    B = assists
    C = plus/minus
    D = games played
    E = age (in total months)

    prospect rating = [ (A + B + C) / D ] / E
     
  11. markov`

    markov` Registered User

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  12. Drake1588

    Drake1588 UNATCO

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    Here's one opinion... The best bargains in this draft were Tukonen and Schwarz, both of whom were probably top-five players in the draft.
     
  13. ZombieMatt

    ZombieMatt Registered User

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    TO me that is the most logical answer to the question posed in the thread.
     
  14. Captain Conservative

    Captain Conservative Registered User

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    Agreed Drake.
     
  15. Letang fan 58

    Letang fan 58 No More Fleury

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    I also think that Malkin at 2 was the first steal of the draft, not that the 2 overall pick was a spot to get a steal in....but the fact that i believe he would have went first overall in most drafts.

    After Malkin i think that Schremp has the possibility of being a major league steal at where the oilers got him, as well as Schwarz for the blues and Mezaros for the sens.......Also think that Tukkonen to the kings was a big time steal considering most had him ranked 3rd or 4th best in the draft class.

    Biggest reach that wont pan out in my opinion is Blake Wheeler at 5....I know gretzky felt at 5 that there were no sure things to be had but by taking a shot on wheeler who still has 1 year of highschool and anywhere from likely 2-4 years of college before he will ever be ready for the nhl and quite possibly another year or 2 in the minors prior to the nhl i think that the risk just wasnt quite worth such a high pick considering there were players like schwarz montoya tukonen available at 5 that could have helped a real bad francihse a lot sooner.....also likely would have been much safer picks.
     
  16. After Ovechkin, Malkin and maybe Barker, the rest was a total crap shoot. But PHX felt they saw the BPA at their position...for the future. There's always those rules about a draft...always draft the best player available, don't try to draft based on need, and expect to wait (no matter who it is) for your pick to develop. And they may have been a franchise that needed a lot of help but they also seem to be addressing some of it via free agency with the signings of O'Donnell, Devereaux & Ricci and adding Chimera via trade. If anything, Wheeler seems like the only guy to NOT be a potential bust among the group selected after him. He'll have plenty of time to develop and there doesn't seem to be pressure on him either to develop quickly (how many busts have been cause the kid was rushed). None of the available players were safer except possibly Montoya.
     
  17. gretzky1545

    gretzky1545 Registered User

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    I'd have to disagree with the statement that no other players were safer, as the simple fact that they are closer to the NHL than Wheeler makes them safer. I personally don't agree with staying at 5 to pick wheeler when you easily could have traded down, but I don't think it was some sort of tragedy that they picked him there. With that said, he does have more inherent risk than many of the players drafted after him.
     
  18. db23

    db23 Guest

    With all due respect to Wheeler's potential, how can you say he was a safer pick that a player like Olesz who has already played 3 seasons in the Czech Elite League which is similar in quality to the AHL? Not to mention the fact that Olesz has been as star in international tournaments for the past 3 years as well. Including the WJC this past winter. How can you say he is a safer pick than Lauri Tukonen who has a season in the SM Liiga and played well at both the U18 and U20 for his country, even though he is a bit younger than Wheeler? Or A.J. Thelen who was a D1 All American while Wheeler was still being recruited, even though they are the same age? I could go on and on through about 40 players that are safer choices than Wheeler.
     
  19. capman29

    capman29 Guest

    Hate to blow some of you peoples mind but ovechkin would have been the first player taken if he could have been drafted in 2003 . So those that believe others should have been taken this year before him have a hockey understanding problem. :banghead:
     
  20. Hawkalyzer

    Hawkalyzer Registered User

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    your not worth any more then that
     
  21. db23

    db23 Guest

    If you look at some of the big "reaches" in recent years, they don't have a very good success ratio. Michael Rupp, Matt Zhultek, Dan Focht, and Peter Ratchuk are a few that come to mind. Danius Zubrus was one of the few who worked out.
     
  22. 15+17=Cup

    15+17=Cup Registered User

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    hate to blow your mind but with the amount Malkin's stock rose this year he could have been first overall in 2003 too. Ovechkin was definitely the uncontested number one in 2003, but Malkin closed the gap considerably this year..Apparently there was a team (i forget which) that would have taken Malkin #1 instead of Ovechkin and you can't say that an NHL team has a hockey understanding problem.

    Myself, I think the biggest 1st-round bargains were Tukonen at #11 and Schwarz at #17. This Robbie Schremp guy, I'm a huge fan of his but I can honestly say I was expecting him to fall like that because of his questionable "attitude". I do think he was a steal, but not a Tukonen or Schwarz type of steal. Another one rarely mentioned was Andrej Meszaros at #21. I was expecting him to go top-15 for sure...great pickup for Ottawa there.

    Outside of the 1st round I say Enver Lisin at #50 (should've been a 1st rounder...), Kirill Lyamin at wherever he went/late 2nd round (another great pick for Ottawa...I think he was first round stuff) and Viktor Alexandrov at #84 (another great pick for STL, I think he could have gone somewhere in the 25-35 range).
     
  23. 15+17=Cup

    15+17=Cup Registered User

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    Well, it may not be a strong argument, but one of those players scored the cup winning goal for his team in 2003...Personally, if I could take a player who would score the cup winning goal if I ever got to the Stanley Cup Finals, I'd take him in a hurry...so it sort of did work for New Jersey. Now if they aren't the team who drafted him then oh well. It still worked out okay for New Jersey :p:.
     
  24. db23

    db23 Guest

    No, it was the Islanders who drafted him 9th overall back in 1980. They didn't sign him and he re-entered the draft in 2000. Jersey drafted him in the third round. But they gave him away (along with a 2nd round draft pick) this spring for playoff rental Jan Hrdina. I guess they didn't feel like he was a key part of their playoff hopes... ;)
     
  25. Winston Wolf

    Winston Wolf Registered User

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    Damn, it took him 20 years to re-enter the draft... What a procrastinator...
     
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