EspenK
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- Sep 25, 2011
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Fire/Don't Fire/Discuss Torts II
- Thread starter Monstershockey
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Cowumbus
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The NHL and its players have changed. We need a new face behind the bench, a fresh start, and a guy willing to give the young guys a chance.
When your team is down in the third period you should be playing guys that can score.
When your team is down in the third period you should be playing guys that can score.
Torts getting humbled in Vancouver seems to have happened at a good time for him. He had to do some soul searching and change his coaching. If he was still coaching like he used to he'd be on that list of hard-ass coaches getting pilloried along with Babcock. The military coach's tactic of "team vs the coach" that Babcock used was also part of Torts' playbook. **I don't know the specific tactics, I don't intend to say one was as bad as the other.**
I've noticed the ongoing argument over Torts and ice time...
I selected forwards who've played most of their team's games*, giving me 371 or almost exactly 12 per team, and sorted them by TOI per game. The bottom quarter (players 279 to 372) is the fourth liners and it gives you an idea of how each team divides up it's ice time. The range in minutes for fourth liners is from 9 minutes to 13 minutes per game, with a couple outliers under 9 minutes.
Riley Nash is 335th - 11:11 - 60th percentile
Emil Bemstrom is 346th - 10:44 - 72nd percentile
Sonny Milano is 353rd - 10:16 - 78th percentile
The percentiles are where our 4th liners rank in TOI relative to other team's 4th liners. Eric Robinson is not on this list but he's got 11:23 per game, or roughly average 4th liner ice time.
There's at least five or six coaches who've played their 4th liners less than Torts does. Winnipeg has played rookie David Gustaffson 6 minutes a night (he scored last night), and journeyman Gabriel Bourque 10 minutes per. Ottawa's Filip Chlapik, who rang one off the post against us, plays 8 minutes a night. St. Louis' Mackenzie McEachern, who I had never heard of until his scored against us last week, plays 9 minutes a night. Vegas' Carrier and Reaves each play 9 minutes a night. Toronto plays Timashov, Shore, and Gauthier less, Minnesota plays Donato and Rask less, and the Rangers play Andersson and McKegg less. Philadelphia plays it's 4th liners about the same, including Tyler Pitlick who just scored last night.
*If you don't do this step you end up with 400+ forwards, with a lot of extra top 9 forwards who've missed games with injury, and you don't get the real 4th liners.
I selected forwards who've played most of their team's games*, giving me 371 or almost exactly 12 per team, and sorted them by TOI per game. The bottom quarter (players 279 to 372) is the fourth liners and it gives you an idea of how each team divides up it's ice time. The range in minutes for fourth liners is from 9 minutes to 13 minutes per game, with a couple outliers under 9 minutes.
Riley Nash is 335th - 11:11 - 60th percentile
Emil Bemstrom is 346th - 10:44 - 72nd percentile
Sonny Milano is 353rd - 10:16 - 78th percentile
The percentiles are where our 4th liners rank in TOI relative to other team's 4th liners. Eric Robinson is not on this list but he's got 11:23 per game, or roughly average 4th liner ice time.
There's at least five or six coaches who've played their 4th liners less than Torts does. Winnipeg has played rookie David Gustaffson 6 minutes a night (he scored last night), and journeyman Gabriel Bourque 10 minutes per. Ottawa's Filip Chlapik, who rang one off the post against us, plays 8 minutes a night. St. Louis' Mackenzie McEachern, who I had never heard of until his scored against us last week, plays 9 minutes a night. Vegas' Carrier and Reaves each play 9 minutes a night. Toronto plays Timashov, Shore, and Gauthier less, Minnesota plays Donato and Rask less, and the Rangers play Andersson and McKegg less. Philadelphia plays it's 4th liners about the same, including Tyler Pitlick who just scored last night.
*If you don't do this step you end up with 400+ forwards, with a lot of extra top 9 forwards who've missed games with injury, and you don't get the real 4th liners.
koteka
Registered User
If you have time, could you tell us which couple of teams have the largest standard deviation for minutes for forwards and which teams have the smallest standard deviation.
I look at a team like Edmonton that plays Drai and McDavid more than 22 minutes per game (more than any other forwards — Scheifele is third with 21:34 minutes per game). Meanwhile Cam leads the CBJ forwards with 19:01. I wonder how sustainable that is for the Oilers. Are they playing for a good regular season record and then they’ll flame out in the playoffs?
I was hoping you had the time for that. .. lol.
I think the Oilers will definitely dial back the ice time if they are in a more comfortable playoff position in the second half. They're already seeing diminishing returns on McDrai effectiveness, they're too gassed to do anything some shifts.
Cowumbus
Registered User
That’s not the point though. Milano, Bemstrom, Texier and Robinson are not fourth liners. Their skill set and what is expected of them is top6 play. If you want a true fourth liner and are going to barely play them then you might as well send all those guys down and bring up Nash, Hannikainen, Dano Dalpe etc.
The fourth line is not a spot for players to develop, and not playing them in third periods will do nothing to help their confidence.
our team is best when we roll 4 lines and we don’t do that
They're fourth liners until their play proves they're not. I would argue that they would be fourth liners on the majority of teams in the league.
- Dec 31, 2017
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Milano at best could maybe be a 2nd liner, but I would keep him 3rd. I have seen enough of him to where CBJ should move on. Bemstrom, Texier, and Robinson, they still need time. I think Torts has been good with their minutes and has increased when they play good and decreased when they don't. I really don't want Columbus developing players because that is where players need to play, not develop. If these guys were top 6 guys, you would see more than what they are showing. Could they be top 6 at some point? Possibly, but they haven't showed anything to make you think they are. Just look at Jake Guentzel. Thats a guy that got called up a proved right away that he belonged. Compare that with Milano. Not even close. Guentzel is a top 6 guy, not Milano.
MoeBartoli
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So would Wennberg and Andy at his current performance.....and naturally Nash too.
Cowumbus
Registered User
You mean like William Karlsson? Or Jonathan Marchessault? What makes Jenner Foligno Wennberg deserving of the top6 time if Bemstrom and Milano put up the same amount of points? Look at the stats.. they all have 9 points, Wennberg has 8. The ice time is much different though.
@Monstershockey Guentzel played on a line with Kessel and Malkin when he came into the league... immediately placed into a top6 role.
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If Torts moved them to the 4th line, I really couldn't argue.
Look, I'm rooting for Sonny and Bem as hard as anybody. But Milano needs to stop giving his club costly penalties if he wants to see the ice more when the game is on the line. Bemstrom needs to improve his play at the other end of the ice, but I like his upside a lot.
In reference for the three guys you mentioned, Wennberg needs to be replaced with Texier at center. Foligno is a third liner at this point. Jenner is the poster child for this team - a hard worker that creates chances but can't finish them often enough.
I don't know how you're defining a 4th liner, but if there is such a thing as a true 4th liner then Eric Robinson is it. Milano maybe as well, he's never been able to scale up his scoring when he gets more minutes, and he's been pushed up the lineup many times in his career. Texier is in flux - reverting from top 9 ice time back to the AHL, hopefully, so not a 4th liner. Bemstrom has in my book been a top 6 quality forward this month. I do think a few more shifts per game would make a lot of sense for a player as effective (this month) as him.
Maybe you were away for the Winnipeg game, but Texier's center audition had to be aborted. He had 3 go in on his watch that game. And his overall game isn't viable right now, 2 more goals against last game in short order, the actual goals against weren't directly his fault but his possession game is cratering. To compare that to Wennberg, 5 goals against at 5 v 5 is as much as have gone in on Wennberg's watch all season. Wennberg hasn't been on for a goal against in the last 12 games, about 150 minutes of ice time. That's seriously f***ing impressive.
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And he performed like he should have. His numbers in the NHL align with what he did in the minors and college. He didn't need Kessel and Malkin to put up good numbers. He is on a point per game pace right now and Kessel is gone and Malkin was hurt. There was no developing him at the NHL level. If our young guys were anywhere near his level, they would have been our top line guys all year. They would have made it impossible for Tortorella to not give them minutes. They are either up too early or developed as much as they are going to be.
I don't know where this convo started, but if there's a lesson from Guentzel it is to chill out about the kids. Texier and Bemstrom just turned 20. Guentzel didn't start in the NHL until he was 22.
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I inserted Guentzel because of the belief that the young guys are top 6 potential. To me, and this is just my opinion, a top 6 guy would look a lot better than this. Even going by potential. I just used Guentzel as an example of what a top 6 guy should resemble coming out of the AHL. He put up numbers in lower leagues and when he got called up he didn't miss a beat. Yeah, his linemates were good, but if he wasn't top 6 it would have showed. His linemates didn't carry him at all. If these 3 are top 6, they would be playing more. Torts is playing these guys to maximize what they can get out of them, while trying to minimize any damage, because lets face it, they are not very good defensively, and their offensive output doesn't balance it out. To use these guys as a point to fire Torts is not a good arguement.
This isn't about firing Torts for me, we just have convos in poorly titled threads around here.
By "top 6 potential" I assume you mean this year, not career? What was Jake Guentzel's potential when he was 20, in his second year in Omaha?
I personally don't like the "if he was top 6 he would be playing top 6 minutes" type of reasoning, or the assumptions that all young players can't be trusted defensively. Torts didn't start to trust Bjorkstrand until this year, but he has been great at both ends since a year plus prior. Bemstrom right now hasn't been on for very many goals against at all, that might be temporary good fortune, I don't know. In any case, at this point he has given no reason to think he's poor defensively, he's just young and the coach doesn't trust him, so he doesn't play in the third period despite having excellent results over the last three weeks.
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Again, I was just using Guentzel as an example. Other people are throwing around the top 6 minute stuff and I was just saying, to me, a guy that plays like Guetzel did when called up is a top 6 type player, not guys that look like they still need developing like the guys here. Some of the posts in this thread want Torts fired for his mismanagement of the young guys. I don't think that is valid. Torts has taken an underachieving team and has earned half of the available points so far. He is doing an admirable job so far and has done nothing to warrant being fired.
As far as Guentzels potential when he was 20, it looked like he had plenty. He was a point per game in his second year, improved his 3rd, and finished that year in the AHL. Then played 33 games in the AHL the next year and produced, got called up, and has produced since. So yeah, he showed plenty of potential at age 20.
Cowumbus
Registered User
How can you say that about Milano? Do you not remember 2017/18 when he had 14 goals (more than Wennberg ever has had) in 55 games, 22 points as well in that time. Career average of 30 points a year. Pretty good for a fourth liner imo. Milano is 6th on the team in points for forwards.. if he’s a fourth liner than maybe our entire team is fourth liners. Way too much skill for a fourth line role.
The game where Elvis sh*t the bed?!? I tell you something that's NOT ****ing impressive - Wennberg's offensive production. He IS a forward, after all. That said, no - Texier is not ready to take that spot right now. But he needs to be ready by the start of next season.
Do you watch much soccer Lee? Wennberg is a soccer player, and probably a midfielder. If you think of him as a midfielder he's good at his job. I've long since given up looking for offense from Wennberg, I just want us to outscore the other team when Wenny is on the ice. And he does that.
MoeBartoli
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I’m in full support of Wennberg transitioning to soccer.
Cyclones Rock
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While I definitely agree that it's too early to make any definitive judgement about Texier and Bemstrom, I will make these points:
Guentzel also didn't get shoved into the NHL without proper minor league development. He also produced pre nhl numbers in leagues (NCAA Div I and the AHL) which are good predictors of NHL success as opposed to European leagues of lower quality.
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