Speculation: Fire Rob Blake Blow it Up Offseason Thread (update: Robitaille, Blake and Hiller stay)

johnjm22

Pseudo Intellectual
Aug 2, 2005
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People who harp on luck this much don't really care about being honest or accurate, it's more about finding a posture that's impossible to disprove because luck is not quantifiable. The contrarian holy grail
Neither part of it is quantifiable.

And the same people who don't like talking about the "luck" part of it, are same type of people who will credit non-quantifiables like "leadership".

If all else fails, I'll just assume there's some sort of balance in the universe, so I'll say it's 50/50.
 

johnjm22

Pseudo Intellectual
Aug 2, 2005
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How much have Bluc done with their luck versus Lombardi? Not a hard measurement to make.
I think a decent example is Pittsburgh verse Edmonton.

You could say each franchise has had a roughly similar amount of luck in the cap era. But the former got their act together. Made 16 straight playoff appearances and won 3 cups, while the latter has mostly floundered.

Good management takes advantage of luck, while bad management squanders it.
 

SettlementRichie10

Registered User
May 6, 2012
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I think a decent example is Pittsburgh verse Edmonton.

You could say each franchise has had a roughly similar amount of luck in the cap era. But the former got their act together. Made 16 straight playoff appearances and won 3 cups, while the latter has mostly floundered.

Good management takes advantage of luck, while bad management squanders it.

This is absolutely my position, too.
 

kingsfan28

Its A Kingspiracy !
Feb 27, 2005
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The most successful team of the cap era is probably the Penguins.

Think how lucky they were getting Crosby in the 2005 draft.

And they didn't get Malkin because of good management. They were a complete shit show at that time.
The Ducks were 1 pick away from getting him. They got Bobby Ryan instead.
 
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KINGS17

Smartest in the Room
Apr 6, 2006
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Trading Belanger and Gleason for Jack Johnson, the asset Lombardi turned into Carter.

Drafting and immediately assigning 18-year old Voynov to Manchester, which is something that could not have been done with a player in Canadian junior hockey.

Then developing Voynov for three seasons in the AHL so he was NHL-ready at age 21...

Yup, no planning or strategy there at all. It was just luck.
 

KINGS17

Smartest in the Room
Apr 6, 2006
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They found the right formula by 2014(although they had to play almost the most amount of games possible to win), but 2012 was on the way to being a disaster. Missing the playoffs while giving up Schenn and Simmonds? Goddamn. The things that had to happen, after Mike Richards, for 2012 to occur, were not part of any plan. There was no coaching change prior to the season, because Murray obviously wasn't a Cup coach. There was no addition to the offense before the season. Thankfully Gagne got hurt, otherwise Carter likely isn't a King. Thankfully Penner could not score, otherwise Carter likely isn't a King.

Luck isn't supposed to enter into a tactical equation. Maybe Dubois has a career turnaround next year. Nobody can say that won't happen with 100% certainty, so is having him on the roster being prepared, or not? We'll find out in at least 12 months.
Is everything that doesn't have a 100% probability of occurring just luck?

I think setting the table for successful outcomes matters, and luck is highly overrated.
 
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johnjm22

Pseudo Intellectual
Aug 2, 2005
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I think setting the table for successful outcomes matters, and luck is highly overrated.
We're talking about an annual contest in which only 1 of 32 teams wins.

More than 1 of those teams sets the table for a successful outcome.

You need good management, but good fortune is also a prerequisite.
 

King'sPawn

Enjoy the chaos
Jul 1, 2003
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Is everything that doesn't have a 100% probability of occurring just luck?

I think setting the table for successful outcomes matters, and luck is highly overrated.
Yep. Everything's luck when you think of it.

Like the Oilers winning several lotteries that makes them lucky. But they're unlucky because they just haven't won a cup yet.

Which has me wondering - are the Oilers lucky or unlucky? Or is an entity just lucky until they're not?

Is Kopitar lucky he fell to the Kings to pick him and give him the career he had? Or are the Kings lucky he fell to them?

Are we all lucky that a meteor hasn't crashed on the Earth yet?

At what point does our current existence and state in this point of time and universe not related to luck and outside factors "allowing" it to happen?

I guess I'm lucky I wasn't hit by a bus when I went for a drive today.

Again - good and bad luck happens with all organizations at different times and different degrees. Linking luck to Lombardi's success just seems vapid to me.
 

kilowatt

the vibes are not immaculate
Jan 1, 2009
18,510
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So you believe that Hoven and Bernstein are being paranoid? Because there have been instances where they have said that their coverage and insider information is tied to having "positive relationships with the Kings". Would they not be fed the type of guests and presumably information they are given if they had a more realistic outlook on the job done by those running the Kings?

If those guys feel that way, and in light of other things that have happened to people who cover the team, why is it outrageous to think that the organization wants only certain types of media ideas pushed?

If Hoven came out today and said,

"these past seven years have obviously been a failure, the development has not been what was needed, the results have been poor, the blame has to fall at the feet of the decision makers"

Does he have the same access to the team and interviews this summer? Keep in mind this would just be holding a view that the vast majority of the fanbase believes.

Plenty of comments like that are made by sports media members all over the continent, how many people are losing their press credential over it, (that is what they said in the pod before last)



I don't really care if Yannetti has an opinion or not, if he wants to go on Hoven's show and tell us that the slow-cook is the greatest development strategy in the history of hockey, that every player needs to spend a minimum of two seasons in the AHL, that inserting young players into bottom six roles with Trevor Lewis is optimal for growth and that Rob Blake is the brightest mind in the league.

My issue with Yannetti is using past successes of the organization (doing things a different way) to hype up what they are doing now. Nobody who followed this team in the building years of 2006-2009 could in their right mind say that they were a slow cook organization. Kopitar and Doughty went straight to the NHL as teenagers, never stepping foot on AHL ice. Jack Johnson jumped straight from college to the NHL at 20, never stepping foot on AHL ice, Wayne Simmonds never played an AHL game before making the Kings at 20, Oscar Moller made the team at 19 with only a handful of AHL games at the end of his age 18 season, Jonathan Quick as a goaltender played only one season of minor pro hockey before becoming the Kings starting goaltender at age 22. I use the word liar, because Yannetti is lying when he says the Kings have "always been a slow cook organization" and that "slow-cooking players brought us two Stanley Cups". This is blatantly dishonest and both Yannetti and Hoven should be embarrassed that they were said, and that they were amplified on Hoven's show.

You seem to take offense to the term lies, but what is a better term? Do you believe Yannetti is being truthful when comparing the Kings under DL to the Kings under Rob Blake? Do you believe Hoven is being truthful when he parrots those same comments to listenders?

Hoven seems to get angry when people say he parrots the ideas of the organization, but perhaps a way to not have people think like that would be to stop pushing lies like these. But instead of looking in the mirror and saying "am I pushing lies told to me" his MO is to attack the listers who point out the lies and the parroting.

Dustin Brown jumped straight from juniors into the NHL, then played the 2004-05 lockout in the AHL only out of necessity. Kyle Clifford played in 7 Monarchs playoff games at the end of his junior career before making the jump to the NHL in 2010. Pretty much all of LA's best homegrown players during the cup run years did not spend any time at all in the AHL.

That's obviously not to say no one ever did. Voynov, King, Martinez, Lewis, Nolan, Toffoli, Pearson, and Kempe all spent at least a season in the AHL. But most of these guys were role players, and I don't think anyone's complaining about the development of guys who actually needed more development.

The building blocks of our cup winning team though? Brown, Kopitar, Doughty, and Quick? 112 total games in the AHL, 79 of them being Brown's from the lockout.
 

bland

Registered User
Jul 1, 2004
7,465
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Luck is a cheap term used to describe an incident in which an improbable - but entirely possible - action occurs as the result of another action.

You craft your opportunities, and if you make the right decision at the right moment you are creating the enviornment in which that positive action may occur. If you make a series of correct decisions you increase the liklihood of the desired result.
 

johnjm22

Pseudo Intellectual
Aug 2, 2005
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No way the site gets that few clicks

Untitled-1.jpg
 

Statto

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We're talking about an annual contest in which only 1 of 32 teams wins.

More than 1 of those teams sets the table for a successful outcome.

You need good management, but good fortune is also a prerequisite.
Sure you need luck to maybe go from being a contender to winning it. However luck isn’t why you enjoy yearly 1st round exits. So no I don’t think the have to be looking like we are winning it all next year, but we have made zero progress as a team and it’s nothing to do with luck,
 

Raccoon Jesus

Todd McLellan is an inside agent
Oct 30, 2008
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It seems like we have to leave nothing up to interpretation on these boards lately because of people being deliberately obtuse or accidentally dumb.

What a stupid unnecessary semantic/philosophical argument.

Of course luck plays a part...health, for example...but to dismiss all the preparation and steps you can take to increase your likelihood of success is bunk. It's not magic and voodoo.

Lightning doesn't strike frequently, but if you go to the top of the empire state building in the middle of a storm with a lightning rod, you obviously have better odds than a guy standing at the side of the I15 on the way to Vegas on a cool sunny spring day.

Rob Blake is the guy standing at the side of the I15, in case you need it explained, while DL is the lightning rod. Sure, he COULD get hit. But it's pretty clear to see why people would wonder aloud why he's not as well prepared for the objective and can hence say it's not just 'bad luck.'

But, of course, the org LOVES you 'just get in and anything can happen' folks, because everything is magic and rainbows and 'see we tried, sorry we didn't have better luck but we were right there' and that's an acceptable rationalization for all of this.
 

FrozenKing18

Goongala! Goongala!
Aug 11, 2009
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But, of course, the org LOVES you 'just get in and anything can happen' folks, because everything is magic and rainbows and 'see we tried, sorry we didn't have better luck but we were right there' and that's an acceptable rationalization for all of this.
That 2012 run is locked in their heads. Or maybe they saw their beloved org Nashville get to the finals as a wildcard a few years ago and thought, yea thats how we’d like to be.
 

chris kontos

Registered User
Feb 28, 2023
3,593
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i like "luck is where preperation meets experience". as a definition of luck.
blake had little experience prior to his promotion to gm. experience as a player is far different than that of an nhl executive as evidenced by the edmonton oilers long running fiasco with mctavish etc.
the preperation these guys had was inheriting a team that was in post championship decline that needed a complete rebuild.
luck or probability can be quantified but how accurately? way above my math paygrade to quantify probability period- much less something with as many variables as the kings team, its success and future.

i hate the offseason.
 

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