Those rebuilds were successful not just because they were bad for a while and got high first round picks. Those teams hit on those high picks, but also hit on their 2nd & 3rd round picks as well to produce legit talent... and then on top of all that, they spent money even when their teams were bad as an investment into the team - signed UFAs to flip at the deadline for more picks, made savvy trades, and invested heavily at every level of their organization.
I agree that rebuilds can absolutely have success, but just "being bad for a while" isn't enough - I think that's the point a lot of posters are trying to make when they point at Edmonton or the Islanders or many other teams who have gone towards full rebuilds without seeing the full fruit of their labour. It's a full investment from an organizational level that requires not only that you get high picks, but that your organization is fully committed both from a philosophical level (understanding that the team will be bad, committing to probably missing the playoffs for a while, making hockey decisions that are for the benefit of the future even if it hurts the present, and most importantly being able to effectively communicate that to your fanbase in a way that convinces them that the team is on the right tack and that their support will be rewarded) as well as a financial level (hiring the right people, ensuring that every level of hockey ops is properly staffed, investing in UFAs as capital to be used in hockey deals in the future, investing in marketing to help appease the fanbase during lean years of on-ice success, etc...) towards the end goal. Cutting corners at any point can mean failure.
I am highly skeptical of our organization's willingness to commit at the level necessary needed for a successful rebuild.
I agree in general, taking guarantee's nothing, you still need to manage the team well but Washington didn't really hit on it's 2nd's and 3rds. After tanking, here's the list of picks outside the 1st round to play 100 games:
2004: Lepisto 179 GP, 35 pts.
2005: Kennedy 162 gp 39 pts
2006: Perreault 496 gp 279 pts; Neuvirth 250 gp.
2007:???
2008:
Holtby
2009:
Orlov 365 gp 124 pts, Eakin 459 gp 181 pts
2010: Grubauer 101 gp.
2011:???
2012: Carrick 167 gp 30 pts
2014:
Not really a lot of impact guys or even guys you can't pick up as a UFA. Holtby was big, though they have Varlamov who landed them the pick for Forsberg I think, who was promptly wasted on Erat.
Washington hit on it's 1st rounders: Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom Varlamov, Alzner, Carlson, Johanson, Kuznetsov, Forsberg, Wison, Burakovsky, that's what they either used in their lineup or as currency.
