Jaynki
Registered User
- Feb 3, 2014
- 5,131
- 4,757
First of all, i just wanna specify that i am not a mathematician nor a statistician. I don't really know what I am talking about. I also don't really know much about hockey. I have been a fervent defensor of MB. I was obviously f***ing wrong.
Now, concerning the Fermat/Pascal model also called the problem of points or the division of stakes, i'll try to present it as short as possible. In 1654, these both mathematicians and philosoph answered a question via correspondence, on twitter i think.
Player A and player B brings 30$. They both challenge each other in a game of heads or tails. It's a best of seven, so the first player to win four round win the 60$. Like in the NHL playoffs for those who didn't knew. After three rounds were player A leads 2-1, the game is interrupted for an unknown and unidentified reason. How should they split the pot??
Fermat answered : Jcomprends ta question, Player A won two round out of three, therefore, he should get home with 2/3 of the pot and Player B with 1/3. Mais jcomprend ta question Phelip.
Then, Blaise Pascal said, it's f***ing unfair mate. There is a probability that player B get back in the game and win all next three round. What if player A win next two round? etc! So Pascal answered with a f***ing incomprehensible formula that took every possible outcomes in it and diversified the pot with all the odds of every possible outcomes.
To summarize it, Fermat answered with what happened in the past(natural, but wrong way of thinking.) and Pascal answered with what could potentially happen in the future. (A very important way of thinking if you guys invest in stocks. Also, i think a nice and helpful way to think in a lot of area of life too.)
We have a natural tendency to think like Fermat. And as human, we also have a natural tendency to think the future will be like the past. Therefore, we sometimes underestimate how good a player can become and how bad can a player decline, there is just so many examples to prove this point. If we think like Pascal in hockey, scouting kinda serve the purpose of putting ''odds'' on what can potentially happen. Obviously, it's not really quantifiable in hockey and good judgement and insight is the primary quality for a GM and a scout.
Concerning the Habs, it looks freaking risky to have Carey Price signed for the next 8 years at 10.5M. It looks freaking bad to have older Alzner and Petry locked up to these heavy contracts. What about Weber. Nothing of this looks good. Most probable outcome for these guys is not bright. (Same goes for old Markov and Radulov tho. We don't even know if Markov as a 39 years old, is the proper player to take Markov role in 2016-2017. Odds are in favour of him declining big time. The point here is that we were doomed Markov or No Markov. Thank you Mete, f*** you MB.). Odds just looks so strongly on the defavour of the Montreal Canadiens. I don't see how this team can succeed in the short term nor in the long term with this actual line-up and prospect pool.
GM Jim Nill is sexy because makes lot of moves, but he commit with older and declining players. I think he is one of the worst GM in the game. (Spezza, Radulov, Methot, Hamhuis, Hanzal, all old and declining players signed to heavy contract.)
GM gives bridge deal to young players when they should actually give ''bridge''(Shorter) deal to players in their thirties(sound absurd isnt it?). Young players can only improve. Old players can only decline. (as a general rule of thumb. Nothing is black or white nor definite.)
I think it's the new tendency to have players like Klingberg, Matheson, Ekblad, Draisaitl etc signed to long term deal without being bridged and it's the f***ing pure logic. You want to commit big money to these players when they are 22-30, not 30-38. If MB could have signed Subban to a 6 years contract worth 5.5M back in 2012... The GMs have to be prudent when they give prospects and picks in trade for veterans, and they have to be even more prudent when they commit long term with older UFA. It just could totally bite them in the ass, and those mistakes(trades that put odds in your defavour) are so f***ing hard to overcome. (Remember McDonagh?).
The Montreal Canadiens looks f***ing doomed with Shaw, Petry, Alzner all locked up for the next 4-5 years. I don't know what will happen with Price and Weber but the odds are not in their favour being better players than they were these last three season. Apart from Drouin and Mete, i don't think we have players that have evident odds of being dominant players for the next decade. (Prospects like Poehling are obviously still too much of an unknown right now to have a brighter picture of what he could potentially become). It feels we are in the same spot we were when MB took over in 2012. Just different names on the shirts.
I think we should bomb this team and acquire as much picks and prospects as we can. Let's build a new generation of youngster around Drouin and Mete. Stone Clod is competent. Let's bring a new GM with judgement and insight. We have Scherbak and possibly Juulsen who can also give us maybe a slight bit of hope. Let's f***ing bomb it and get Dahlin. Let's get some first pick and blue chip prospect for Pacioretty and Weber if possible, now we could potentially be in real business in not too long. And young players are way more exciting to watch than stupid and slow veteran ala Hemsky or f***in Torrey Mitchell.
Whatcha guys fink the Habs should doo?
Sorry for the long post, j'ai un asti d'grand yeule.
Now, concerning the Fermat/Pascal model also called the problem of points or the division of stakes, i'll try to present it as short as possible. In 1654, these both mathematicians and philosoph answered a question via correspondence, on twitter i think.
Player A and player B brings 30$. They both challenge each other in a game of heads or tails. It's a best of seven, so the first player to win four round win the 60$. Like in the NHL playoffs for those who didn't knew. After three rounds were player A leads 2-1, the game is interrupted for an unknown and unidentified reason. How should they split the pot??
Fermat answered : Jcomprends ta question, Player A won two round out of three, therefore, he should get home with 2/3 of the pot and Player B with 1/3. Mais jcomprend ta question Phelip.
Then, Blaise Pascal said, it's f***ing unfair mate. There is a probability that player B get back in the game and win all next three round. What if player A win next two round? etc! So Pascal answered with a f***ing incomprehensible formula that took every possible outcomes in it and diversified the pot with all the odds of every possible outcomes.
To summarize it, Fermat answered with what happened in the past(natural, but wrong way of thinking.) and Pascal answered with what could potentially happen in the future. (A very important way of thinking if you guys invest in stocks. Also, i think a nice and helpful way to think in a lot of area of life too.)
We have a natural tendency to think like Fermat. And as human, we also have a natural tendency to think the future will be like the past. Therefore, we sometimes underestimate how good a player can become and how bad can a player decline, there is just so many examples to prove this point. If we think like Pascal in hockey, scouting kinda serve the purpose of putting ''odds'' on what can potentially happen. Obviously, it's not really quantifiable in hockey and good judgement and insight is the primary quality for a GM and a scout.
Concerning the Habs, it looks freaking risky to have Carey Price signed for the next 8 years at 10.5M. It looks freaking bad to have older Alzner and Petry locked up to these heavy contracts. What about Weber. Nothing of this looks good. Most probable outcome for these guys is not bright. (Same goes for old Markov and Radulov tho. We don't even know if Markov as a 39 years old, is the proper player to take Markov role in 2016-2017. Odds are in favour of him declining big time. The point here is that we were doomed Markov or No Markov. Thank you Mete, f*** you MB.). Odds just looks so strongly on the defavour of the Montreal Canadiens. I don't see how this team can succeed in the short term nor in the long term with this actual line-up and prospect pool.
GM Jim Nill is sexy because makes lot of moves, but he commit with older and declining players. I think he is one of the worst GM in the game. (Spezza, Radulov, Methot, Hamhuis, Hanzal, all old and declining players signed to heavy contract.)
GM gives bridge deal to young players when they should actually give ''bridge''(Shorter) deal to players in their thirties(sound absurd isnt it?). Young players can only improve. Old players can only decline. (as a general rule of thumb. Nothing is black or white nor definite.)
I think it's the new tendency to have players like Klingberg, Matheson, Ekblad, Draisaitl etc signed to long term deal without being bridged and it's the f***ing pure logic. You want to commit big money to these players when they are 22-30, not 30-38. If MB could have signed Subban to a 6 years contract worth 5.5M back in 2012... The GMs have to be prudent when they give prospects and picks in trade for veterans, and they have to be even more prudent when they commit long term with older UFA. It just could totally bite them in the ass, and those mistakes(trades that put odds in your defavour) are so f***ing hard to overcome. (Remember McDonagh?).
The Montreal Canadiens looks f***ing doomed with Shaw, Petry, Alzner all locked up for the next 4-5 years. I don't know what will happen with Price and Weber but the odds are not in their favour being better players than they were these last three season. Apart from Drouin and Mete, i don't think we have players that have evident odds of being dominant players for the next decade. (Prospects like Poehling are obviously still too much of an unknown right now to have a brighter picture of what he could potentially become). It feels we are in the same spot we were when MB took over in 2012. Just different names on the shirts.
I think we should bomb this team and acquire as much picks and prospects as we can. Let's build a new generation of youngster around Drouin and Mete. Stone Clod is competent. Let's bring a new GM with judgement and insight. We have Scherbak and possibly Juulsen who can also give us maybe a slight bit of hope. Let's f***ing bomb it and get Dahlin. Let's get some first pick and blue chip prospect for Pacioretty and Weber if possible, now we could potentially be in real business in not too long. And young players are way more exciting to watch than stupid and slow veteran ala Hemsky or f***in Torrey Mitchell.
Whatcha guys fink the Habs should doo?
Sorry for the long post, j'ai un asti d'grand yeule.
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