Fenwick Tied Rankings

Jason MacIsaac

Registered User
Jan 13, 2004
22,221
5,936
Halifax, NS
Fenwick is a +- type stat that measures possession. I only used numbers when the game is tied because that usually gives you an indication of how good a team is when all things considered even.

Bon Appetite !

EAST

Pittsburgh - 0.538
Washington - 0.534
Boston - 0.525
Montreal - 0.525
Florida - 0.523
New Jersey - 0.520
Ottawa - 0.504
Philadelphia - 0.503
Toronto - 0.501
Winnipeg - 0.497
Buffalo - 0.486
New York I - 0.478
Carolina - 0.474
New York R - 0.453
Tampa Bay - 0.448

WEST

Detroit - 0.571
St Louis - 0.567
Chicago - 0.551
Vancouver - 0.537
Colorado - 0.521
Phoenix - 0.509
San Jose - 0.508
Calgary - 0.505
Columbus - 0.501
Edmonton - 0.499
Los Angeles - 0.491
Dallas - 0.454
Nashville - 0.433
Anaheim - 0.417
Minnesota - 0.413
 

Les Wynan*

Guest
Thanks for this, it's a pain in the ass to have to pull all the data from timeonice individually. And just to elaborate on your description of the stat, for those who don't know, Fenwick is the differential between shots and missed shots for and shots and missed shots against for each team. Sharks were 2nd in the NHL by this metric last year, it's concerning how far they've dropped off. Hopefully that's just a factor of discrepancies in schedule difficulty so far but their third line last season was a big part of their dominant possession game and that unit is significantly worse now.

Also it's still beyond idiotic that the Blues fired Payne.
 

Talks to Goalposts

Registered User
Apr 8, 2011
5,117
371
Edmonton
Florida's standing thus far freaks me out. I may be forced to reluctantly conclude at one point that Tallon isn't an idiot.

Meanwhile Tampa sinks heavily after being elite last season.

Ottawa being in the black is also something of a surprise, although they weren't that bad of a possession team last year, goaltending being the bigger weakness.
 

Jason MacIsaac

Registered User
Jan 13, 2004
22,221
5,936
Halifax, NS
I found Florida to be really interesting, teams with active defense who shoot tend to have better possession teams. Ottawa, Phoenix and Florida all rely on this method.
 

Jason MacIsaac

Registered User
Jan 13, 2004
22,221
5,936
Halifax, NS
Thanks for this, it's a pain in the ass to have to pull all the data from timeonice individually. And just to elaborate on your description of the stat, for those who don't know, Fenwick is the differential between shots and missed shots for and shots and missed shots against for each team. Sharks were 2nd in the NHL by this metric last year, it's concerning how far they've dropped off. Hopefully that's just a factor of discrepancies in schedule difficulty so far but their third line last season was a big part of their dominant possession game and that unit is significantly worse now.

Also it's still beyond idiotic that the Blues fired Payne.
Payne was the scapegoat for Halak not being able to stop a beach ball early. Hitchcock is still a very good coach however and his X's and O's approach will make St Louis very dangerous the next few years.
 

bluesfan94

Registered User
Jan 7, 2008
30,720
8,081
St. Louis
Thanks for this, it's a pain in the ass to have to pull all the data from timeonice individually. And just to elaborate on your description of the stat, for those who don't know, Fenwick is the differential between shots and missed shots for and shots and missed shots against for each team. Sharks were 2nd in the NHL by this metric last year, it's concerning how far they've dropped off. Hopefully that's just a factor of discrepancies in schedule difficulty so far but their third line last season was a big part of their dominant possession game and that unit is significantly worse now.

Also it's still beyond idiotic that the Blues fired Payne.

Why?
 

The Note

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Mar 13, 2011
8,919
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KCMO
Thanks for this, it's a pain in the ass to have to pull all the data from timeonice individually. And just to elaborate on your description of the stat, for those who don't know, Fenwick is the differential between shots and missed shots for and shots and missed shots against for each team. Sharks were 2nd in the NHL by this metric last year, it's concerning how far they've dropped off. Hopefully that's just a factor of discrepancies in schedule difficulty so far but their third line last season was a big part of their dominant possession game and that unit is significantly worse now.

Also it's still beyond idiotic that the Blues fired Payne.

Payne was the scapegoat for the team not playing like it can, which it has since Hitchcock was hired
 

iamitter

Thornton's Hen
May 19, 2011
4,006
374
NYC
Rangers had a goal deficit for only 17 seconds during their win streak and played like 80% of with at least a goal in hand. I'm not really surprised at these stats then.
 

Jason MacIsaac

Registered User
Jan 13, 2004
22,221
5,936
Halifax, NS
Rangers had a goal deficit for only 17 seconds during their win streak and played like 80% of with at least a goal in hand. I'm not really surprised at these stats then.
You do realize these stats are when game is "tied" only. I understand when teams are ahead they tend to sit back in a defensive posture and get outplayed.
 

Les Wynan*

Guest

Those underlying numbers are terrific and they were phenomenal last season at even strength as well (10th in the league in score-tied Fenwick). A lot of that can presumably be attributed to Payne since they were a fairly mediocre possession team in 09-10. I understand they've had their troubles with special teams but the biggest reason the Blues failed to qualify for the postseason last year, and were out of the playoff picture when Payne was fired this year, was bad luck. They received awful goaltending last season and were a 993 PDO team. Variance working against them to that degree doesn't tend to persist over a larger sample size and we're seeing that now with the Blues winning games on a regular basis. Payne was essentially sacrificed due to a low even-strength SV% that he had no control over despite the fact that team in reality was playing extremely well.
 

squidz*

Guest
Those underlying numbers are terrific and they were phenomenal last season at even strength as well (10th in the league in score-tied Fenwick). A lot of that can presumably be attributed to Payne since they were a fairly mediocre possession team in 09-10. I understand they've had their troubles with special teams but the biggest reason the Blues failed to qualify for the postseason last year, and were out of the playoff picture when Payne was fired this year, was bad luck. They received awful goaltending last season and were a 993 PDO team. Variance working against them to that degree doesn't tend to persist over a larger sample size and we're seeing that now with the Blues winning games on a regular basis. Payne was essentially sacrificed due to a low even-strength SV% that he had no control over despite the fact that team in reality was playing extremely well.

Or in other words, your precious stats didn't reflect the final scores, so you side with the stats instead of the reality.
 

Les Wynan*

Guest
Rangers had a goal deficit for only 17 seconds during their win streak and played like 80% of with at least a goal in hand. I'm not really surprised at these stats then.

They're an even worse Fenwick team overall (i.e. in all even-strength situations, not just with the score tied) at 0.447. Their PDO is ridiculous at this point at 1039. Boston was the highest in the league last year at 1022 and that was due to Thomas' fantastic season that I doubt Lundqvist will replicate. Nashville was a distant second at 1015 and of course the majority of teams were in the 995-1005 range.
 

Les Wynan*

Guest
Or in other words, your precious stats didn't reflect the final scores, so you side with the stats instead of the reality.

So coaches are responsible for their goaltenders' save percentages now?
 

Iamok

Registered User
Oct 20, 2010
6,885
1
Florida's standing thus far freaks me out. I may be forced to reluctantly conclude at one point that Tallon isn't an idiot.

Meanwhile Tampa sinks heavily after being elite last season.

Ottawa being in the black is also something of a surprise, although they weren't that bad of a possession team last year, goaltending being the bigger weakness.

The 'stache preaches a puck possession game. It's certainly a new concept considering Clouston preferred the much simpler dumping it in option. With Karlsson, Gonchar, Kuba and even Rundblad, the Sens are built to carry the puck even from the back end.
 

squidz*

Guest
So coaches are responsible for their goaltenders' save percentages now?

They certainly can be. SV% can be as much a result of defensive play as it is the goaltender's ability. Defensive play has several points where it ties back to the coach. The fact is, the team has earned 1.67P/G under the new coach, while they only earned 0.92P/G under the previous one.
 

Les Wynan*

Guest
They certainly can be. SV% can be as much a result of defensive play as it is the goaltender's ability. Defensive play has several points where it ties back to the coach. The fact is, the team has earned 1.67P/G under the new coach, while they only earned 0.92P/G under the previous one.

Yeah, drawing conclusions from a sample size of five is enlightening.

The Blues allowed fewer even-strength shots against last season under Payne than any team in the NHL other than New Jersey. Try again.
 

iamitter

Thornton's Hen
May 19, 2011
4,006
374
NYC
You do realize these stats are when game is "tied" only. I understand when teams are ahead they tend to sit back in a defensive posture and get outplayed.

I'm saying it's a terribly small sample size. The games were tied a majority of the time when we got outplayed terribly in the beginning of the season and goaltending saved us. On the other hand, when we were winning, we just played to our strengths. We're not an attacking team, we're a team that collapses towards the net and forces the opposition to take low % shots. We try to force turnovers and capitalize on the chances we get from them. That's why whenever we do get chances, they're generally pretty good ones.

I know you guys really love using your stats, but you're also cherry picking. I've seen in every thread how the rangers EV shot % is unsustainably high. That's wholly true. Now look at our shots/game. Look at previous years and the very bottom of the league in terms of shots/game. You don't think that we'll go towards the mean in that, but we will in shot percentage? Give me a break, there hasn't been a year post lockout where we were below 29.6 shots/game.

The same argument applies for unsustainable save % (which I agree with for Biron, but Lundqvist has looked completely normal thus far this year - we've just tightened up our defense). Sure save % will go down - but so will SA/game.
 

EVBetting Site

Registered User
Jun 29, 2011
348
0
Edmonton
Or in other words, your precious stats didn't reflect the final scores, so you side with the stats instead of the reality.

Nothing he wrote is untrue. And stats are just a reflection of reality. Its just a way to quantify what happens on the ice. The Blues were playing great hockey all year long. I've stated already that the only games they were outplayed were against SJ, Edmonton, and Minnesota. They've been the better team (at ES) in every other game this season.

Of course, outplaying/outshooting your opponent doesnt guarantee a win but it does correlate to success. The biggest wildcard is goaltenders, which reduce or increase the margin you need to outshoot/outplay an opponent to be even money. Here is an example from earlier this season of part of a write up I did that shows the correlation between frequency of winning the game/goaltenders/and puck possession/zone possession

Game for tomorrow I like is San Jose -133

San Jose is just much much superior to the Preds at the FW position. SJS forwards are actually quite solid players all around, led by the evolution of Joe Thornton as a hockey player. I've never seen him play better hockey than the end of last season and leading into this year....not in his 120+ point Hart year, or all those big offensive number years. He's just a really solid player now and should be around 80 points this season. Against teams that commit forwards back to help in the defensive end like a San Jose does, Nashville FWs just dont have the size and skill to keep any sustained pressure in the offensive zone, which is their whole gameplan. Nashville doesnt have the sniper power or transition explosive offense to produce goals from a rush, they need to grind out their goals, which plays right into the Sharks strengths.

The defender edge I actually give to San Jose as well, despite how vaunted the Predators Dcore is. The overall depth across 3 pairings, all 6 defenders on the Sharks is disgusting. I would put it at about top 5 in the league, right around what Nashville is at, but what they have that Nashville doesnt is specialized roles. Suter-Weber are great players but they are only "great" at most phases of the game. Burns-Boyle are their equals at bringing PP offense, and I would suggest superior at ES offense. Murray-Vlasic are very comparable to them defensively. The reason Suter-Weber are so valuable is because you can simply play them in every situation and you know you are getting high level production, while you may need, in this case, 4 very good players to replace and equal their roles, which is tough to find. However, San Jose has just that. Their team depth is insane.

Again, the wildcard is going to be in net. Rinne is just such a gigantic advantage to have in net. You literally have to outshoot and outchance Nashville by like 2-4 shots to be even money with them, almost regardless of your goalie. SJS to be worth their price here have to play in the range of {24-20 to 30-24} , which is a tough task for sure (4-6 shots here), but again, with solid defenders and solid team defense in general on both sides, a low offensive output game is favored here, so on the lower end of that range, about 4 shots, which San Jose is very likely to cover.
 

Jason MacIsaac

Registered User
Jan 13, 2004
22,221
5,936
Halifax, NS
I'm saying it's a terribly small sample size. The games were tied a majority of the time when we got outplayed terribly in the beginning of the season and goaltending saved us. On the other hand, when we were winning, we just played to our strengths. We're not an attacking team, we're a team that collapses towards the net and forces the opposition to take low % shots. We try to force turnovers and capitalize on the chances we get from them. That's why whenever we do get chances, they're generally pretty good ones.

I know you guys really love using your stats, but you're also cherry picking. I've seen in every thread how the rangers EV shot % is unsustainably high. That's wholly true. Now look at our shots/game. Look at previous years and the very bottom of the league in terms of shots/game. You don't think that we'll go towards the mean in that, but we will in shot percentage? Give me a break, there hasn't been a year post lockout where we were below 29.6 shots/game.

The same argument applies for unsustainable save % (which I agree with for Biron, but Lundqvist has looked completely normal thus far this year - we've just tightened up our defense). Sure save % will go down - but so will SA/game.
Well I mention in another thread that the rangers team right now is bad. There is always the possibility for team improvement over the year. The stats are what you make of them. What these rankings can tell you is what teams overachieved until today.
 

Les Wynan*

Guest
I'm saying it's a terribly small sample size. The games were tied a majority of the time when we got outplayed terribly in the beginning of the season and goaltending saved us. On the other hand, when we were winning, we just played to our strengths. We're not an attacking team, we're a team that collapses towards the net and forces the opposition to take low % shots. We try to force turnovers and capitalize on the chances we get from them. That's why whenever we do get chances, they're generally pretty good ones.

I know you guys really love using your stats, but you're also cherry picking. I've seen in every thread how the rangers EV shot % is unsustainably high. That's wholly true. Now look at our shots/game. Look at previous years and the very bottom of the league in terms of shots/game. You don't think that we'll go towards the mean in that, but we will in shot percentage? Give me a break, there hasn't been a year post lockout where we were below 29.6 shots/game.

The same argument applies for unsustainable save % (which I agree with for Biron, but Lundqvist has looked completely normal thus far this year - we've just tightened up our defense). Sure save % will go down - but so will SA/game.

http://trackingthenyrangers.blogspot.com -- Your scoring chance claim is BS, the Rangers have been outchanced at even-strength.

The Rangers were 19th in the NHL in both SF/60 and SA/60 last season. So, yeah, they might improve from their current rankings in those categories but not enough to make up for the negative regression sure to affect their ridiculously high league-leading even-strength PDO.

The entire point of advanced stats is the fact that there does exist a wide discrepancy in shot differential among teams at the end of every season but the difference in even-strength SH%, as well as the difference in PDO (even-strength SH% + even-strength SV%) is very small and the discrepancy that does exist in those categories can be attributed almost entirely to luck as they have been shown to have essentially no year-to-year repeatability.
 

Rutabaga

Registered User
Apr 27, 2010
1,003
0
Middle of Nowhere
I found Florida to be really interesting, teams with active defense who shoot tend to have better possession teams. Ottawa, Phoenix and Florida all rely on this method.

Jason Garrison did score 7 goals in 19 games. And he is the best goalscorer among defensemen. (Im surprised, if not shocked, that we did not saw any thread about that fact). Its obviously not going to stay that way for long, but thats nice for them.

Their shooting percentage is not that good, but each (minus Campbell) of their key-player is scoring at an insustainable rate. Weiss at 18.4%, Fleischmann at 17.0%, Versteeg at 16.7% and Garrison at 14.0%. Not sure at all that they'll keep scoring like that, but their rebuild looks indeed on the right way.
 

EVBetting Site

Registered User
Jun 29, 2011
348
0
Edmonton
Jason Garrison did score 7 goals in 19 games. And he is the best goalscorer among defensemen. (Im surprised, if not shocked, that we did not saw any thread about that fact). Its obviously not going to stay that way for long, but thats nice for them.

Their shooting percentage is not that good, but each (minus Campbell) of their key-player is scoring at an insustainable rate. Weiss at 18.4%, Fleischmann at 17.0%, Versteeg at 16.7% and Garrison at 14.0%. Not sure at all that they'll keep scoring like that, but their rebuild looks indeed on the right way.

Florida's team defense and dcore in particular is disgustingly solid and deep. I actually have my own metric that evaluates player contribution to winning hockey games and using last years stats, Brian Campbell, Jason Garrison, and Mike Weaver all excelled in it (like top 10-15 Im pretty sure leaguewide). All 3 were extremely underrated going into this season. Kulikov's continued progression into a solid hockey player is the cherry on top. They could have a top 3 dcore leaguewide very very soon. Gudbranson and Ellerby are a liability right now, so if they can hide them for 14 min/game then their dcore is very complete.
 

squidz*

Guest
Yeah, drawing conclusions from a sample size of five is enlightening.

The Blues allowed fewer even-strength shots against last season under Payne than any team in the NHL other than New Jersey. Try again.

Is counting to 6 really that difficult? And you're trying to force poorly designed stats upon people?

As for the ES SA last season, what did that get the team? Oh, that's right, they missed the playoffs by 10 points. The only team that had fewer? They missed by 12 points.

Go ahead and cherry pick one or two weakly correlated stats (which are based upon an often inaccurate core stat) to explain why a team's management is making terrible mistakes. I'm sure they'll be horribly upset when they win more games with uglier stats instead of continuing to lose in a pretty fashion. I mean, we all want to be the San Diego Chargers of last season right?
 

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