Favin's Top 100 Prospects

[Favin]

Cam York - Drafted 14th overall - Ranked 46th
Cole Caufield - Drafted 15th overall - Ranked 33rd
Alex Newhook - Drafted 16th overall - Ranked 55th

Clearly there is an unfair bias against Caufield here.

I don't factor in draft positions unless it changes their likelihood to play.

 

[Artanis]

Kind of surprised Logan Brown isn't ahead of Norris, considering Brown actually played really well in the AHL last year. Also Lassi Tompson is ranked wayyyy too high.

 

[frisco]

Very good list. I can't believe how bad the Penguin system is looking.

My Best-Carey

 

[Sasso09]

Frost at 32 is a joke, he's top 15 easily. Kyrou and Suzuki have no business being placed above him.

 

[Sasso09]

MacKenzie Blackwood, who had better 1st season numbers than Hart, is #9 on my list. Flyers fans don't seem upset about that.

People can debate Goalie lists all day, but ~30 game sample sizes shouldn't be the only factor. Hart is good. But there is a lot of competition.

Hart is the clear cut #1, there's not 4 guys ahead of him let alone competitive with him.

 

[bukwas]

I have absolutely no respect for this list. I know that you put in time and effort to make it but it’s utterly ridiculous.

I don't much care for it either but it's one persons opinion, no big deal.
Besides, it's a 100 name list on HF. Try coming up with a list of 5 that receives a positive majority opinion.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

(or others have weird love for Kirby Dach)

But honestly, I probably overrate skating ability and am often too size-agnostic. Compared to others I generally am more bullish on faster, skilled small players and more bearish on slower big bodies.

Bobby Brink should not be on this list to begin with and you have him at 60?

He is easily the worst skater on this list and you say you value skating......???

 

[Vasilevskiy]

No TB player in the top 100. Interesting.

 

[King'sPawn]

Thank you for taking the time to do this.

It's a lot of work. Even ranking just the Kings prospects on my own list is a very hard feat, I can't imagine doingbit for all 31 teams. So thank you.

 

[loadie]

There’s no Generational talent on that list. No matter how shiny the newest toy is. I do appreciate all of your work, thanks so much for having the guts to put out a 100 player list.

 

[severian]

There’s no Generational talent on that list. No matter how shiny the newest toy is. I do appreciate all of your work, thanks so much for having the guts to put out a 100 player list.

On HFboards there’s at least 3-4 generational prospects every season.

 

[Ncit3]

Interesting list. I don't see Quinn Hughes ever being better than Makar. For the list, I guess I've just seen Makar play at a high level in the playoffs, actual time in the NHL and done well, while Hughes has done jack squat.

But it's just a list.

 

[Tryamkin]

Interesting list. I don't see Quinn Hughes ever being better than Makar. For the list, I guess I've just seen Makar play at a high level in the playoffs, actual time in the NHL and done well, while Hughes has done jack squat.

But it's just a list.

Hughes doesn't have 'actual time' in the NHL? He played very well at the end of the season. It's hard to play in the playoffs when your team doesn't actually make the playoffs.... Hughes is a year younger.

But it's just a list.

 

[Favin]

On HFboards there’s at least 3-4 generational prospects every season.

Generational talents:

Alex Turcotte, Alfie Turcotte
Nolan Foote, Adam Foote
Ryan Johnson, Craig Johnson
Rhett Pitlick, Lance Pitlick

(I guess it depends on definition of 'generational talent')

 

[Ncit3]

Hughes doesn't have 'actual time' in the NHL? He played very well at the end of the season. It's hard to play in the playoffs when your team doesn't actually make the playoffs.... Hughes is a year younger.

But it's just a list.

I think garbage games on a non-playoff team is a bit different than big time playoff time.

 

[Castle8130]

I don't really understand this list because if it is projections, then Dach should be miles ahead of a lot of those centers, and if it's current level of play, Seider should be way ahead of Soderstrom.

Edit: Just going to add a non-homerism example that Beecher is a loot better prospect than Fortin.

 

[Tryamkin]

I think garbage games on a non-playoff team is a bit different than big time playoff time.

Makar didn’t play any NHL games in his D+1 year.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

Cozens at 41? 1C upside when many people in front of him aren’t projected top liners.

 

[Favin]

Cozens at 41? 1C upside when many people in front of him aren’t projected top liners.

For the record, Cozens is #40 (rankings were from before his injury).

There were 8 forwards from 2019 draft listed ahead of Cozens (could have been 9 without Newhook injury, who slipped a few spots). I think all of them have 1st line upside, but easier to make that case for top-6 listed here. Most likely outcome for Cozens is 2nd line RW.

-- 1st line projection --
1. Jack Hughes, C, NJD
2. Kaapo Kakko, RW, NYR
9. Alex Turcotte, C, LAK
11. Trevor Zegras, C, ANA
15. Matthew Boldy, LW, MIN
20. Vasili Podkolzin, RW, VAN

-- top-6 projection --
33. Cole Caufield, LW, MTL
37. Peyton Krebs, LW, VGK
40. Dylan Cozens, C, BUF
48. Kirby Dach, C, CHI
55. Alex Newhook, C, COL
56. Arthur Kaliyev, RW, LAK
58. Pavel Dorofeyev, LW, VGK

-- middle-6 projection --
60. Bobby Brink, RW, PHI
62. Connor McMichael, C, WAS
65. Philip Tomasino, C, NSH
70. Raphael Lavoie, C, EDM
84. Nils Hoglander, LW, VAN

 

[Mildan]

Didn't follow him last season, but I thought Kupari was a C and not RW. Did it change?

 

[Kettil33]

Some interesting talking points and obviously debatable positioning, but I enjoyed looking.

For feedback, I'd suggest that your goaltending rankings stand out as a notch poorer in quality. Its telling that you don't even talk about goaltending in your ranking scheme methods (what's the score for a starter relative to your skating rankings - is it top pair d-man equivalent).

Its hard to project goalies, but Hart's accomplishments have consistently stood out as star-level (actually his junior level accomplishments are generational). He already looks likes a starter, which fits with his pedigree, and clearly has star potential ... that should put him in the 80-95 point range, and if you factor probabilities into things ... he's as close to sure thing as prospects get given his 30 successful games in the NHL last year. Forget about the other goalies, because I do think there's some other great goalie prospects right now, but just based on that scoring and probability based discounts for many of the just drafted skaters high on your list, that has to put Hart higher up on your overall list (at least top 20).

 

[themelkman]

No Chmelevski or Chekhovich?

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Pretty brutal list, highlighted by two chronically injured guys no sane GM would select in the top 200 anymore in Vilardi and Timmins.

 

[FromRussiaWithLove]

No offense but I do not like this list at all..

 

[5cotland]

Frost at 32 is a joke, he's top 15 easily. Kyrou and Suzuki have no business being placed above him.

Suzuki...maybe, Kyrou definitely not. Kyrou scored more points in his D+1 year and had a very solid season in the AHL for the Rampage. He is more NHL ready.