Faulk, Hainsey home-road splits

[My Special Purpose]

I was bored and couldn't sleep so I started poking around at stats. With the proliferation of advanced stats -- which I think is a good thing -- sometimes, we ignore the stuff that used to pass for detailed analysis, and we miss something obvious. This struck me as crazy playing with basic player stats on ESPN.

Anyhow, get this. Here are Justin Faulk and Ron Hainsey's home/road splits (like I said, ultra-basic):

Road
Faulk 17GP, 2G, 5A, MINUS-19
Hainsey 18GP, 1G, 0A, MINUS-18

Home
Faulk 11GP, 3G, 3A, PLUS-8
Hainsey 13GP, 1G, 6A, PLUS-5

Now I get that plus-minus is limited. And I get that this is a small sample size. And I know the Canes have been far better at home as a team. But those are huge differences and it has to be relevant. For reference, Rask is minus-2 on the road and plus-2 at home. Skinner is minus-5 on the road, even at home. Stempniak is plus-2 both at home and on the road. Those 4-5 unit swings are easily explained, but 27?!?

Is it all about matchups for these two? Have you all noticed this with the eye test, because I sure had no clue. Hainsey looks lost all the time, but these numbers say it's really only on the road where he's terrible, while at home he's damn serviceable.

Pesce is plus-3 on the road and plus-2 at home, while Slavin is minus-2 on the road and plus-4 at home. That says to me that it's not usage by our coach. Maybe opponents' coaches see what we see and get their top guys on against Faulk/Hainsey and *avoid* Slavin/Pesce?

Does anybody want to look into this any deeper with Corsi and matchup data? I'm getting sleepy.

Click to read more...

 

[Unsustainable]

That's pretty interesting with the fancy stats, seems like that is true that home ice advantage of line changes makes a difference

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Just using the eye test, I damn sure would rather go up against Faulk-Hainsey than Slavin-Pesce.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

How do those break down by month? The opening road stretch was tough.

 

[Joe McGrath]

The advanced numbers don't tell you a whole lot you couldn't have inferred from the +/-. Absurd PDO at home, equally absurdly bad PDO on the road. The thing that jumps out too me though is that Faulk has only been on the ice for four 5 on 5 goals for in 16 road games. In his position that's almost impossible to do. He's 180th out of 188 defenseman for GF/60 on the road, tied with Kevin Shattenkirk which surprising. Though Shattenkirk is at 1.68 against per 60 while Faulk sits at 4 (also near the bottom of the league)

 

[Ole Gil]

How do those break down by month? The opening road stretch was tough.

This is what I was thinking.

 

[Roboturner913]

Just using the eye test, I damn sure would rather go up against Faulk-Hainsey than Slavin-Pesce.

I would guess so. Hainsey is good for a turnover about every 3rd time he touches the puck. Worst player in the lineup right now, and as the kids say, AINEC.

 

[Joe McGrath]

How do those break down by month? The opening road stretch was tough.

For Faulk on the road:
-6 in October
-5 in November
-8 in December

He's been a minus in all but 4 road games, and 2 of those were the Nashville and Ottawa games where Cam went into God mode and saved everyone's bacon repeatedly.