Drew Doubty
Registered User
Long post incoming:
This team isn't nearly as far from a cup as some might think. That's my opinion.
It's pretty obvious the sweet spot to target a cup run starts the season after next (2022-2023). That's when they get out from underneath pretty much all of their overpriced contracts and will have the ability to spend big to improve the team. Between now and then the job is to wait for good opportunities to fill the known gaps on the squad, signing Pettersson, Hughes, and Demko to reasonable contracts, and not handcuff themselves by signing anyone who doesn't fit into the teams long term picture.
Right now the 2022 roster looks like this:
Boeser - Pettersson - Miller
XXXX - Horvat - Hoglander
XXXX - XXXX - Podkolzin
XXXX - XXXX - XXXX
XXXX - XXXX
Hughes - XXXX
XXXX - Schmidt
Juolevi - Myers
XXXX
Demko
XXXX
Current cap committed for 2022 is 23.5 million (assuming Ferland is done). I personally think it's very likely that both pettersson and Hughes sign bridge deals. Given that there's likely to be a flat cap this year, both players aren't having breakout seasons this year, and that bridge deals are in vogue. So I'm guessing something like dual 3 x 7.5 deals is about right. For Demko it's a little harder to know what will happen, if he ends up with a sv% between .905 and .910 this year I bet he gets something like 2x 3.5 mill deal. Juolevi likely gets a 2-3 year deal but he's a #6 right now so I can't see him getting more than 1.5 million in his contract and Podkolzin adds another 1 mill with his ELC. That will make the total cap committed for 2022 42 million. Assuming the cap goes up modestly, say 4 million, in 2022, the Canucks will have roughly 40 million to fill out the rest of their roster.
Next year the cap situation improves slightly with Sutter, Baertschi, Spooner, and Edler relieving 14 million in cap, but given that 14-15 million will have to go to resigning demko, pettersson, and Demko, it's safe to say that there won't be many opportunities to take on cap without moving some out.
Some might say that the Canucks need more elite talent to put them over the top, but that's extremely hard to acquire, and I think the Canucks are better to build a team around great depth rather than paying out the nose to acquire another top 3 forward or #1 D. They would be right to bet on the guys they have now growing enough to get them over the top. So what would a cop contending Canucks team look like on opening night on 2022?
I'm going to fill in players from today regardless of their current commitment to other teams or age and using cap hits I think are about right.
Boeser - Pettersson - Miller
Jaden Schwartz (5.3) - Horvat - Hoglander
Armia (2.5) – Pageau (5) - Podkolzin
Motte (1.5) – Nick Roy (1.5) – Will Carrier (1.5)
Depth guy 1 (.8) – Depth guy 2 (.8)
Hughes – Brandon Carlo (7)
Holden (5)- Schmidt
Juolevi - Myers
Woo/Rathbone (0.8)
Demko
Allen (3.5)
Obviously these are all pretty ideal contracts, but I’ve left 4 mill in space to spend so there’s some give. To me, this is a roster that could win it all. I’m going to look for moves in the next year or 2 that fit in with this. I don’t think we’ll be able to nab the #2 d-man or #2 LW until the 2022 offseason, but in the meantime I think Benning should look for smart 3rd/4th line acquisitions that don’t take a lot of cap. We need more Motte for Vanek type deals. I also think the Schmidt deal was really smart since it basically gave us a relatively cost controlled #3 guy that will still be in his prime for the window. Smarter than signing Tanev to a similar contract when he’s 2 years older and likely on the decline for the window.
Doing all this is going to be very tough for Benning as it takes rigorous pro-scouting and very savvy cap management. I’m not sure if he’s the guy for the job.
Edit: forgot to factor in Boeser's raise in 2022. Assume he gets something like 8.5 mill and remove all that flex room I baked in
This team isn't nearly as far from a cup as some might think. That's my opinion.
It's pretty obvious the sweet spot to target a cup run starts the season after next (2022-2023). That's when they get out from underneath pretty much all of their overpriced contracts and will have the ability to spend big to improve the team. Between now and then the job is to wait for good opportunities to fill the known gaps on the squad, signing Pettersson, Hughes, and Demko to reasonable contracts, and not handcuff themselves by signing anyone who doesn't fit into the teams long term picture.
Right now the 2022 roster looks like this:
Boeser - Pettersson - Miller
XXXX - Horvat - Hoglander
XXXX - XXXX - Podkolzin
XXXX - XXXX - XXXX
XXXX - XXXX
Hughes - XXXX
XXXX - Schmidt
Juolevi - Myers
XXXX
Demko
XXXX
Current cap committed for 2022 is 23.5 million (assuming Ferland is done). I personally think it's very likely that both pettersson and Hughes sign bridge deals. Given that there's likely to be a flat cap this year, both players aren't having breakout seasons this year, and that bridge deals are in vogue. So I'm guessing something like dual 3 x 7.5 deals is about right. For Demko it's a little harder to know what will happen, if he ends up with a sv% between .905 and .910 this year I bet he gets something like 2x 3.5 mill deal. Juolevi likely gets a 2-3 year deal but he's a #6 right now so I can't see him getting more than 1.5 million in his contract and Podkolzin adds another 1 mill with his ELC. That will make the total cap committed for 2022 42 million. Assuming the cap goes up modestly, say 4 million, in 2022, the Canucks will have roughly 40 million to fill out the rest of their roster.
Next year the cap situation improves slightly with Sutter, Baertschi, Spooner, and Edler relieving 14 million in cap, but given that 14-15 million will have to go to resigning demko, pettersson, and Demko, it's safe to say that there won't be many opportunities to take on cap without moving some out.
Some might say that the Canucks need more elite talent to put them over the top, but that's extremely hard to acquire, and I think the Canucks are better to build a team around great depth rather than paying out the nose to acquire another top 3 forward or #1 D. They would be right to bet on the guys they have now growing enough to get them over the top. So what would a cop contending Canucks team look like on opening night on 2022?
I'm going to fill in players from today regardless of their current commitment to other teams or age and using cap hits I think are about right.
Boeser - Pettersson - Miller
Jaden Schwartz (5.3) - Horvat - Hoglander
Armia (2.5) – Pageau (5) - Podkolzin
Motte (1.5) – Nick Roy (1.5) – Will Carrier (1.5)
Depth guy 1 (.8) – Depth guy 2 (.8)
Hughes – Brandon Carlo (7)
Holden (5)- Schmidt
Juolevi - Myers
Woo/Rathbone (0.8)
Demko
Allen (3.5)
Obviously these are all pretty ideal contracts, but I’ve left 4 mill in space to spend so there’s some give. To me, this is a roster that could win it all. I’m going to look for moves in the next year or 2 that fit in with this. I don’t think we’ll be able to nab the #2 d-man or #2 LW until the 2022 offseason, but in the meantime I think Benning should look for smart 3rd/4th line acquisitions that don’t take a lot of cap. We need more Motte for Vanek type deals. I also think the Schmidt deal was really smart since it basically gave us a relatively cost controlled #3 guy that will still be in his prime for the window. Smarter than signing Tanev to a similar contract when he’s 2 years older and likely on the decline for the window.
Doing all this is going to be very tough for Benning as it takes rigorous pro-scouting and very savvy cap management. I’m not sure if he’s the guy for the job.
Edit: forgot to factor in Boeser's raise in 2022. Assume he gets something like 8.5 mill and remove all that flex room I baked in
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