Fantasy Draft Tournament R2

[hockeynorth]

Please select the team that'd win head to head for each matchup (2020-2021), please analyze all parts of each team. Take your time.

Matchup 1:


Evander Kane - Mark Scheifele - Brendan Gallagher
Kirill Kaprizov - Max Domi - Julien Gauthier
Ilya Kovalchuk - Trevor Zegras - Patric Hornqvist
Milan Lucic - Pius Suter - Alex Galchenyuk

Ben Chiarot - Kris Letang
Quinn Hughes - Jason Demers
Jake Gardiner - Radko Gudas

Tristan Jarry
Aaron Dell

vs



Conor Garland (0.78)- Sean Couturier (4.33) - Oliver Bjorkstrand (2.5)
Alex DeBrincat (6.4) - Joe Pavelski (7) - Ondrej Kase (2.6)
Marco Rossi (0.93) - Andrew Copp (2.28) - Alex Steen (5.75)
James Neal (5.75) - Joe Thornton (0.7) - Dylan Cozens (0.89)

Adam Pelech (1.6) - Dougie Hamilton (5.75)
Shayne Gostisbehere (4.5) - Rasmus Andersson (4.55)
Bowen Byram (0.89) - Ty Smith (0.86)

Ben Bishop (4.92)
Kaapo Kahkonen (0.73)

Matchup 2:
‎

Jeff Skinner - Evgeni Malkin - Bryan Rust
Frank Vatrano - Anthony Cirelli - Travis Konecny
Carl Hagelin - Alex Wennberg - Josh Leivo
Michael Grabner - Casey Cizikas -
Austin Wagner

Thomas Chabot - Dylan DeMelo
Dmitry Orlov - Kevin Shattenkirk
Juuso Valimaki - Olli Maatta

MacKenzie Blackwood
James Reimer

vs



C. Kreider - J. Tavares - E. Dadonov
J. DeBrusk - N. Kadri - C. Smith
R. Grimaldi - T. Blueger - C. Sissons
J. Harkins - C. Rowney - J. Virtanen

Z. Werenski - A. Martinez
J. Edmundson - J. Trouba
M. Mueller - T. Barrie

A. Khudobin
J. Allen

Matchup 3:

Johnny Gaudreau / Auston Matthews / Dominik Kahun
Yanni Gourde / Paul Stastny / Jordan Kyrou
Richard Panik / Chandler Stephenson / Vitaly Kravtsov
Maxime Comtois / Mark Jankowski / Tyler Motte

Josh Morrissey / Jared Spurgeon
Alexander Romanov / Nate Schmidt
Jonas Siegenthaler / Scott Mayfield

Frederik Andersen
Alex Stalock

vs



Ilya Mikheyev - Sebastian Aho - Mikko Rantanen
Adrian Kempe - Logan Couture - Alexander Radulov
Nick Robertson - Noel Acciari - Andrew Shaw
Matt Nieto - Nic Dowd - Colin Blackwell

Brian Dumoulin - Brent Burns
Patrick Nemeth - Brandon Montour
Slater Koekkoek - Cal Foote

Thatcher Demko
Mikko Koskinen

Matchup 4:


Anders Lee - Steven Stamkos - Josh Bailey
Filip Chytil - Matt Duchene - Viktor Arvidsson
Gabriel Vilardi - Erik Haula - Jesse Puljujarvi
Jordan Martinook - Alex Turcotte - Tage Thompson

Jaccob Slavin - John Klingberg
Brendan Dillon - P.K Subban
Dennis Cholowski - Tucker Poolman

Antti Raanta
Pavel Francouz

vs



Artemi Panarin - Dylan Larkin - Tyler Toffoli
Tomas Tatar - Nick Suzuki - Connor Brown
Nick Cousins - Derek Stepan - Marcus Foligno
Jimmy Vesey - Nick Bjugstad - Trevor Moore

Morgan Rielly - Filip Hronek
Brayden McNabb - Justin Faulk
Mark Borowiecki - Justin Schultz

Ilya Samsonov
Jonathan Bernier

Matchup 5:


Andre Burakovsky - Nathan MacKinnon - Anthony Mantha
Clayton Keller - Robert Thomas - Dustin Brown
Lawson Crouse - Carl Soderberg - Vinnie Hinostroza
Eric Robinson - Jason Spezza - Garnet Hathaway

Mikhail Sergachev - Charlie McAvoy
Ian Cole - Erik Gustafsson
Ben Hutton - Nick Holden

Carey Price
Cal Petersen

vs


Taylor Hall-Jack Eichel-Dennis Gurianov
Filip Zadina-Kevin Hayes-Kevin Labanc
Joel Farabee-Alex Kerfoot-Zach Aston Reese
Max Jones-Mikhail Grigorenko-Michael Amadio

Mattias Ekholm-Matt Dumba
Brady Skjei-Erik Cernak
Jake McCabe-Noah Dobson

Jacob Markstrom
David Rittich

Matchup 6:


O. Palat - M. Barzal - B. Boeser
T. Pearson - R. Johansen - C. Atkinson
N. Gusev - T. Bozak - E. Bemstrom
T. Nosek - B. Sutter - D. Simon

J. Brodin - C. Makar
N. Leddy - C. Tanev
J. Benn - H. Jokiharju

M.A. Fleury
L. Ullmark

vs



Alexis Lafrenière - Tyler Seguin - Mark Stone
Rickard Rakell - Adam Henrique - Valeri Nichushkin
Barclay Goodrow - Vladislav Namestnikov - Grigori Denisenko
Pierre Engvall - Jujhar Khaira - Colton Sceviour

Esa Lindell - Erik Karlsson
Marcus Pettersson - Sean Walker
Rasmus Sandin - Zach Bogosian

Ilya Sorokin
Jack Campbell

Matchup 7:

Alex Iafallo / Nicklas Backstrom / Blake Wheeler
Anthony Beauvillier / Nick Schmaltz / Timo Meier
Anders Bjork / Joel Eriksson-Ek / Brandon Tanev
Mathieu Perrault / Morgan Frost / Christian Fischer

Markus Nutivaara / Seth Jones
Jake Muzzin / Zach Whitecloud
Carson Soucy / K’Andre Miller

Darcy Keumper
Casey DeSmith

vs


James van Riemsdyk - Sidney Crosby - Jordan Eberle
William Nylander - David Krejci - Luke Kunin
Scott Laughton - Calle Jarnkrok - Kasperi Kapanen
Jayce Hawryluk - Adam Gaudette - Drake Caggiula

Travis Sanheim - Shea Theodore
Ryan Lindgren - Adam Fox
Caleb Jones - Trevor van Riemsdyk

Jordan Binnington
Ryan Miller

Matchup 8:

Boone Jenner (3.750)	Connor McDavid (12.500)	Patrick Laine (6.750)
Filip Forsberg (6.000)	Michael Backlund (5.350)	Nino Niederriter (5.250)
Anthony Duclair (1.650)	Quinton Byfeild (0.925)	Corey Perry (1.500)
Patrick Marleau (0.700)	Cody Eakin (2.250)	Ty Dellandrea (0.863)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Alex Edler (6.000)	Jeff Petry (5.500)
Keith Yandle (6.350)	Travis Hamonic (3.857)
Ron Hainsey (3.500)	Timothy Liljegren (0.863)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Elvis Merzlikins (4.000)

Curtis McElhinny (1.300)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

vs



David Perron - Ryan O'Reilly - Sammy Blais
Brandon Saad - Patrice Bergeron - Andreas Johnsson
Arturri Lehkonen - Nolan Patrick - Joonas Donskoi
Nick Paul - Adam Lowry - Joel Kiviranta

Ivan Provorov - Philippe Myers
Haydn Fleury - Sami Vatanen
Andy Greene - Connor Timmins

Igor Shesterkin
Pekka Rinne

Click to read more...

 

[hockeynorth]

we need more votes

 

[Llamamoto]

Vote over

Anders Lee - Steven Stamkos - Josh Bailey =< Artemi Panarin - Dylan Larkin - Tyler Toffoli
Filip Chytil - Matt Duchene - Viktor Arvidsson = Tomas Tatar - Nick Suzuki - Connor Brown
Gabriel Vilardi - Erik Haula - Jesse Puljujarvi > Nick Cousins - Derek Stepan - Marcus Foligno
Jordan Martinook - Alex Turcotte - Tage Thompson >= Jimmy Vesey - Nick Bjugstad - Trevor Moore

Jaccob Slavin - John Klingberg >>> Morgan Rielly - Filip Hronek
Brendan Dillon - P.K Subban >= Brayden McNabb - Justin Faulk
Dennis Cholowski - Tucker Poolman =<Mark Borowiecki - Justin Schultz

Antti Raanta + Pavel Francouz > Ilya Samsonov + Jonathan Bernier


There's no way Pittsburgh should be winning this right now. St. Louis's defense and goaltending are better, and our offensive groups are very similar.

 

[Panda Bear]

their first line is actually << over yours

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

their first line is actually << over yours

Three matches are tied right now, vote!

 

[Llamamoto]

their first line is actually << over yours

Regardless, the difference between our defenses is bigger than the difference between our offenses.

 

[hockeynorth]

Vote over

Anders Lee - Steven Stamkos - Josh Bailey =< Artemi Panarin - Dylan Larkin - Tyler Toffoli
Filip Chytil - Matt Duchene - Viktor Arvidsson = Tomas Tatar - Nick Suzuki - Connor Brown
Gabriel Vilardi - Erik Haula - Jesse Puljujarvi > Nick Cousins - Derek Stepan - Marcus Foligno
Jordan Martinook - Alex Turcotte - Tage Thompson >= Jimmy Vesey - Nick Bjugstad - Trevor Moore

Jaccob Slavin - John Klingberg >>> Morgan Rielly - Filip Hronek
Brendan Dillon - P.K Subban >= Brayden McNabb - Justin Faulk
Dennis Cholowski - Tucker Poolman =<Mark Borowiecki - Justin Schultz

Antti Raanta + Pavel Francouz > Ilya Samsonov + Jonathan Bernier


There's no way Pittsburgh should be winning this right now. St. Louis's defense and goaltending are better, and our offensive groups are very similar.

L1: PIT >> STL
L2: STL = PIT
L3: STL > PIT
L4: PIT > STL

D1: STL >> PIT
D2: STL > PIT
D3: PIT > STL

G: STL = PIT

I don't think STL can stop their top line tho

 

[emptyNedder]

L1: PIT >> STL

I don't think STL can stop their top line tho

I get it that this game is all about opinions/reputation. But given that the matchups are 7-game series, there is a way to at least get some context. Below are the last three playoff appearances for the two lines in question:

Pittsburgh:
Toffoli 16gp/2g/3a
Panarin 19gp/8g/12a
Larkin 5gp/1g/0a (not really representative as it was his rookie season)
Total 40gp/11g/15a .65ppg

St. Louis:
Lee 35gp/8g/8a
Stamkos 22gp/9g/10a
Bailey 39gp/8g/21a
Total 96gp/25g/39a .66ppg


Panarin>Bailey (actual results)
Lee>Toffoli

So unless the synergy thesis holds that Larkin will score 1.4 ppg playing with Panarin, then it doesn't make sense to argue that Pittsburgh's top line will be unstoppable and is 2x > than St. Louis.

I don't have a team remaining, but one of the advantages of participating is being able to hone my logic looking at actual performance.

 

[DatsyukianDekes13]

I get it that this game is all about opinions/reputation. But given that the matchups are 7-game series, there is a way to at least get some context. Below are the last three playoff appearances for the two lines in question:

Pittsburgh:
Toffoli 16gp/2g/3a
Panarin 19gp/8g/12a
Larkin 5gp/1g/0a (not really representative as it was his rookie season)
Total 40gp/11g/15a .65ppg

St. Louis:
Lee 35gp/8g/8a
Stamkos 22gp/9g/10a
Bailey 39gp/8g/21a
Total 96gp/25g/39a .66ppg


Panarin>Bailey (actual results)
Lee>Toffoli

So unless the synergy thesis holds that Larkin will score 1.4 ppg playing with Panarin, then it doesn't make sense to argue that Pittsburgh's top line will be unstoppable and is 2x > than St. Louis.

I don't have a team remaining, but one of the advantages of participating is being able to hone my logic looking at actual performance.

If this is true and you mostly care about playoff experience, why on earth did you vote Montreal over Toronto? I don't think there are any reasons at all to vote Montreal (no offense to OB5, I like his team but it just doesn't compare). Lets look at each important player's playoff history:

Mackinnon: 54 points in 40 games
Mantha: no experience in playoffs (but one can assume how well a 40 goal pace and PPG pace winger, over the last couple years if he didn't get hurt, would do with a 54 point C and someone who people thought may break Gretzky's playoff points record if the Avs went further)
Burakovsky: 17 points in 15 games (on Colorado, as I don't think Washington is an accurate representation of the star Bura is becoming)
Keller: 7 points in 9 games (small sample size but decent production)
Thomas: 9 points in 29 games (not good, but still young and didn't have as big a role during the cup run)
Brown: 47 points in 85 games
Total PPG: 0.75

Eichel: no experience in playoffs (although I very much doubt he could hold his own with Mr. 54 points in 40 games)
Hall: 12 points in 14 games (worse than Burakovsky and similar to Keller)
Gurianov: 17 points in 27 games
Hayes: 26 points in 56 games, but on Philly 13 in 16, so lets take that number instead
Zadina: no experience (I love Zadina, but he isn't anything special just yet, and on a playoff team I don't want him on my top 6. He hasn't proven he can produce great offensive numbers. I hope he takes a big jump this year, but I wouldn't take that chance on a contender)
Labanc: 14 in 30 games
Total PPG: 0.64

The playoff production of the forwards is easily won by Toronto, and dominated by Mackinnon. I think playoff production is much less important then the player's ability as a whole, but you value it highly, and still voted Montreal. Not to mention defence or goaltending, where Sergachev was amazing this past playoffs and the only standout on either blueline in terms of playoff success, while Price and Markstrom have similar stats in the playoffs.

Toronto not only outperforms in playoffs but in most other aspects as well. Imo:
Mack>>Eichel
Mantha<Hall
Keller>Gurianov
Thomas=Hayes
Burakovsky>>>>Zadina
Brown<Labanc
Tor L3>Mtl L3
Tor l4>Mtl L4

McAvoy>>Ekholm
Serg>>Dumba
Gustafsson<Cernak
Cole=Skjei
Tor P3>Mtl P3

Price<Markstrom
Petersen>=Rittich

The only aspect where Montreal is better is 2nd pairing, and possibly goaltending. Toronto has much better forwards, a much better top pair, and better depth. I have kept quiet on voting in the past, although it is the main reason why I haven't joined any of these, but I can't understand Montreal over Toronto. If someone can give me a detailed explanation of their reasoning for their vote (that isnt OB5 lol), then I will happily change my mind, but I can't see any possible argument myself.

 

[OB5]

If this is true and you mostly care about playoff experience, why on earth did you vote Montreal over Toronto? I don't think there are any reasons at all to vote Montreal (no offense to OB5, I like his team but it just doesn't compare). Lets look at each important player's playoff history:

Mackinnon: 54 points in 40 games
Mantha: no experience in playoffs (but one can assume how well a 40 goal pace and PPG pace winger, over the last couple years if he didn't get hurt, would do with a 54 point C and someone who people thought may break Gretzky's playoff points record if the Avs went further)
Burakovsky: 17 points in 15 games (on Colorado, as I don't think Washington is an accurate representation of the star Bura is becoming)
Keller: 7 points in 9 games (small sample size but decent production)
Thomas: 9 points in 29 games (not good, but still young and didn't have as big a role during the cup run)
Brown: 47 points in 85 games
Total PPG: 0.75

Eichel: no experience in playoffs (although I very much doubt he could hold his own with Mr. 54 points in 24 games)
Hall: 12 points in 14 games (worse than Burakovsky and similar to Keller)
Gurianov: 17 points in 27 games
Hayes: 26 points in 56 games, but on Philly 13 in 16, so lets take that number instead
Zadina: no experience (I love Zadina, but he isn't anything special just yet, and on a playoff team I don't want him on my top 6. He hasn't proven he can produce great offensive numbers. I hope he takes a big jump this year, but I wouldn't take that chance on a contender)
Labanc: 14 in 30 games
Total PPG: 0.64

The playoff production of the forwards is easily won by Toronto, and dominated by Mackinnon. I think playoff production is much less important then the player's ability as a whole, but you value it highly, and still voted Montreal. Not to mention defence or goaltending, where Sergachev was amazing this past playoffs and the only standout on either blueline in terms of playoff success, while Price and Markstrom have similar stats in the playoffs.

Toronto not only outperforms in playoffs but in most other aspects as well. Imo:
Mack>>Eichel
Mantha<Hall
Keller>Gurianov
Thomas=Hayes
Burakovsky>>>>Zadina
Brown<Labanc
Tor L3>Mtl L3
Tor l4>Mtl L4

McAvoy>>Ekholm
Serg>>Dumba
Gustafsson<Cernak
Cole=Skjei
Tor P3>Mtl P3

Price<Markstrom
Petersen>=Rittich

The only aspect where Montreal is better is 2nd pairing, and possibly goaltending. Toronto has much better forwards, a much better top pair, and better depth. I have kept quiet on voting in the past, although it is the main reason why I haven't joined any of these, but I can't understand Montreal over Toronto. If someone can give me a detailed explanation of their reasoning for their vote (that isnt OB5 lol), then I will happily change my mind, but I can't see any possible argument myself.

This is completely wrong except for when he compliments Montreal

 

[hockeynorth]

I get it that this game is all about opinions/reputation. But given that the matchups are 7-game series, there is a way to at least get some context. Below are the last three playoff appearances for the two lines in question:

Pittsburgh:
Toffoli 16gp/2g/3a
Panarin 19gp/8g/12a
Larkin 5gp/1g/0a (not really representative as it was his rookie season)
Total 40gp/11g/15a .65ppg

St. Louis:
Lee 35gp/8g/8a
Stamkos 22gp/9g/10a
Bailey 39gp/8g/21a
Total 96gp/25g/39a .66ppg


Panarin>Bailey (actual results)
Lee>Toffoli

So unless the synergy thesis holds that Larkin will score 1.4 ppg playing with Panarin, then it doesn't make sense to argue that Pittsburgh's top line will be unstoppable and is 2x > than St. Louis.

I don't have a team remaining, but one of the advantages of participating is being able to hone my logic looking at actual performance.

I just can't look at just playoff performance, its sample size, and Larkins never had as good a player as Panarin

 

[Panda Bear]

Only using the playoffs for your sample is ridiculous.

 

[hockeynorth]

Playing devils advocate bc I'm conflicted:



Andre Burakovsky - Nathan MacKinnon - Anthony Mantha
Clayton Keller - Robert Thomas - Dustin Brown
Lawson Crouse - Carl Soderberg - Vinnie Hinostroza
Eric Robinson - Jason Spezza - Garnet Hathaway

Mikhail Sergachev - Charlie McAvoy
Ian Cole - Erik Gustafsson
Ben Hutton - Nick Holden

Carey Price
Cal Petersen

vs


Taylor Hall-Jack Eichel-Dennis Gurianov
Filip Zadina-Kevin Hayes-Kevin Labanc
Joel Farabee-Alex Kerfoot-Zach Aston Reese
Max Jones-Mikhail Grigorenko-Michael Amadio

Mattias Ekholm-Matt Dumba
Brady Skjei-Erik Cernak
Jake McCabe-Noah Dobson

Jacob Markstrom
David Rittich

L1: How much do you believe in Eichel? Is it wrong to say Eichel has top 3 player production with a real team? This is what matters. Eichel, end of story. Remember, Mack wasn't great when younger but exploded recently, personally I expect similar from Eichel but idk if its this coming season. With that said, Hall is significantly better than Mantha and he too hasn't had a good supporting cast, now he does. I believe the Hall/Mantha + Mack/Eichel gap actually evens out. Gurianov vs Burakovsky is up to each player. As said before, I'm not sold on Gurianov as a first line winger, but the guy scores. I am also iffy on Burakovsky having room to grow further, let alone replicate his success. I personally believe Toronto has an edge, but an extremely small one on L1 due to Gurianov not having proved he's a first liner just yet. Toronto's L1 is also stronger defensively.

L2: Kevin Hayes right now is what we hope Thomas could be next year. Really, Thomas is an elite 3C right now who could play top 6 spot duty. I'm not sold on him as the 2C here at all, especially with an ageing Dustin Brown. Keller does help though, and I believe he's much better than he gets credit for. I personally think Zadina next season produces equal to or greater than Brown while having wheels. I think Hayes cooks Thomas, Zadina outplays Brown, and IF Labanc rebounds he could produce equal to Keller this last year. Is it fair to assume Keller growth? Yes, but that still gives MTL 2/3 players here quite easily, so Montreal takes L2.

L3: Montreals L3 can take matchup duties. ZAR is one of the best defensive forwards in the league, comfortably. He won't score lots, but he could slide up and down the lineup and play MacKinnons shadow. Kerfoot is also closer to a top 6 player than a 3rd liner, and Farabee should be able to play top 6 minutes next year. Soderberg is ageing fast, heck he's not even signed yet, and he isn't overly defensive. Crouse isn't a very positive impact player but he can play spot duty as the digger, I just don't see who he's digging for here. Hinostrozza is a really solid 3rd liner who could put up 45 points though. Again here though, I have to take Montreal because of ZARs defensive acumen, and the other twos skillsets. Toolsy but effective L3.

L4: Grigorenko will come in as a 3C. I believe that. He is excellent in Russia. Spezza is also an excellent 4C though. Robinson is whatever, 4th liner who has a positive impact, and Hathaway hits hard. Jones is a prospect, might be Hathaway next year. Amadio is meh. I definitely lean Toronto here outside of C.

D1: The great debate. Is Ekholm/Dumba good enough? Well, Dumba has plenty of defensive gaffs, and Ekholm is near flawless, so I do believe Ekholm can cover for Dumba. Dumba is a strong 3/okay 2, while Ekholm is an underrated 1D. They do compliment each other well. Sergachev though is a good 2 and McAvoy is a good 1. I don't think you can debate this, Toronto takes it, but it is closer than >> after further thought with how well they compliment, and Sergachevs ability away from a blueline with Hedman.

D2: Cole-Gustafsson is essentially an older/worse Skjei-Cernak. Cernak is a solid 3, Skjei is a very good 4, Cole is an okay 4 and same for Gustafsson. They're basically the same idea but Montreals guys are better both today and tomorrow, I take Montreal's D2 comfortably.

D3: All 4 guys are #5s today. I think it's relatively close, Dobson is probably a #4 by the end of the year, so I take Montreal, it's also just a more fun pair, and Holden is getting old/slow/ineffective and replaced by Whitecloud. Holden probably ends up a #6 or worse by the end of the year, so his decline against Dobsons progression settled it, but its all close.

G: It all depends on Price's season. He can steal a series, but Markstrom is an elite goalie today. They're very close, as are the backups, but Rittich is a touch more experienced. I'd take Price here due to game stealing potential but it is super close. If I really had to decide I take Toronto.

Overall: It's a very close matchup, IMO Montreal wins depth but Toronto won L1, D1 and G, so for that I take Toronto. If you think ZAR and co can help get Eichel away from Mack without letting in lots of goals, you could take Montreal.

 

[emptyNedder]

If this is true and you mostly care about playoff experience, why on earth did you vote Montreal over Toronto?

I don't "mostly care about playoff experience." My point was that the two lines in that particular discussion were much closer than HN's opinion. The playoff stats were just support for my argument—not the entire argument. It is too easy to say A couldn't stop B.

That said, you do a good job of supporting your argument with numbers. I will review my vote. Though I think Hall/Eichel could be very productive in a short series.

 

[emptyNedder]

I just can't look at just playoff performance, its sample size, and Larkins never had as good a player as Panarin

But you could argue that Bailey has never had a goal-scorer like Stamkos and still had 18 assists in the bubble.
I think Pittsburgh's L1 is better—but you have yet to convince me they are >> or unstoppable.

 

[BeLeafing]

That said, you do a good job of supporting your argument with numbers. I will review my vote. Though I think Hall/Eichel could be very productive in a short series.

Hall/Eichel is definitely nice, but at the same time Bura and MacKinnon just had a dominant playoff run this season. So it's hypothetical success vs looking at Bura/MacK and seeing proven success together. Then Mantha > Guri on the opposite wing.

 

[emptyNedder]

Only using the playoffs for your sample is ridiculous.

I could make a much more detailed argument. I was just giving some objective support. That is something that is lacking. Using words like "strong" and using << or >>, don't really support anything. Yet, you find an argument that says line A is >> than line B reasonable, but an argument with "some" actual performance data "ridiculous."

 

[Llamamoto]

I get it that this game is all about opinions/reputation. But given that the matchups are 7-game series, there is a way to at least get some context. Below are the last three playoff appearances for the two lines in question:

Pittsburgh:
Toffoli 16gp/2g/3a
Panarin 19gp/8g/12a
Larkin 5gp/1g/0a (not really representative as it was his rookie season)
Total 40gp/11g/15a .65ppg

St. Louis:
Lee 35gp/8g/8a
Stamkos 22gp/9g/10a
Bailey 39gp/8g/21a
Total 96gp/25g/39a .66ppg


Panarin>Bailey (actual results)
Lee>Toffoli

So unless the synergy thesis holds that Larkin will score 1.4 ppg playing with Panarin, then it doesn't make sense to argue that Pittsburgh's top line will be unstoppable and is 2x > than St. Louis.

I don't have a team remaining, but one of the advantages of participating is being able to hone my logic looking at actual performance.

@hockeynorth see the logic. My 3rd line is better, my 2nd pairing is better, and my top pairing is much better.

That makes up for the difference between our top lines, which, as you can see, isn't as much as you made it out to be.

 

[Panda Bear]

I could make a much more detailed argument. I was just giving some objective support. That is something that is lacking. Using words like "strong" and using << or >>, don't really support anything. Yet, you find an argument that says line A is >> than line B reasonable, but an argument with "some" actual performance data "ridiculous."

Two responses:

1. I do when I know that the poster is drawing from their overall impression of each player, which is informed by as much data about that player as they can reasonably manage.

2. The less information you provide, the harder it is to attack a point. I can just go "Line A is actually >> Line B" when someone goes "Line A is < Line B".

 

[BeLeafing]

Playing devils advocate bc I'm conflicted:



Andre Burakovsky - Nathan MacKinnon - Anthony Mantha
Clayton Keller - Robert Thomas - Dustin Brown
Lawson Crouse - Carl Soderberg - Vinnie Hinostroza
Eric Robinson - Jason Spezza - Garnet Hathaway

Mikhail Sergachev - Charlie McAvoy
Ian Cole - Erik Gustafsson
Ben Hutton - Nick Holden

Carey Price
Cal Petersen

vs


Taylor Hall-Jack Eichel-Dennis Gurianov
Filip Zadina-Kevin Hayes-Kevin Labanc
Joel Farabee-Alex Kerfoot-Zach Aston Reese
Max Jones-Mikhail Grigorenko-Michael Amadio

Mattias Ekholm-Matt Dumba
Brady Skjei-Erik Cernak
Jake McCabe-Noah Dobson

Jacob Markstrom
David Rittich

L1: How much do you believe in Eichel? Is it wrong to say Eichel has top 3 player production with a real team? This is what matters. Eichel, end of story. Remember, Mack wasn't great when younger but exploded recently, personally I expect similar from Eichel but idk if its this coming season. With that said, Hall is significantly better than Mantha and he too hasn't had a good supporting cast, now he does. I believe the Hall/Mantha + Mack/Eichel gap actually evens out. Gurianov vs Burakovsky is up to each player. As said before, I'm not sold on Gurianov as a first line winger, but the guy scores. I am also iffy on Burakovsky having room to grow further, let alone replicate his success. I personally believe Toronto has an edge, but an extremely small one on L1 due to Gurianov not having proved he's a first liner just yet. Toronto's L1 is also stronger defensively.

L2: Kevin Hayes right now is what we hope Thomas could be next year. Really, Thomas is an elite 3C right now who could play top 6 spot duty. I'm not sold on him as the 2C here at all, especially with an ageing Dustin Brown. Keller does help though, and I believe he's much better than he gets credit for. I personally think Zadina next season produces equal to or greater than Brown while having wheels. I think Hayes cooks Thomas, Zadina outplays Brown, and IF Labanc rebounds he could produce equal to Keller this last year. Is it fair to assume Keller growth? Yes, but that still gives MTL 2/3 players here quite easily, so Montreal takes L2.

L3: Montreals L3 can take matchup duties. ZAR is one of the best defensive forwards in the league, comfortably. He won't score lots, but he could slide up and down the lineup and play MacKinnons shadow. Kerfoot is also closer to a top 6 player than a 3rd liner, and Farabee should be able to play top 6 minutes next year. Soderberg is ageing fast, heck he's not even signed yet, and he isn't overly defensive. Crouse isn't a very positive impact player but he can play spot duty as the digger, I just don't see who he's digging for here. Hinostrozza is a really solid 3rd liner who could put up 45 points though. Again here though, I have to take Montreal because of ZARs defensive acumen, and the other twos skillsets. Toolsy but effective L3.

L4: Grigorenko will come in as a 3C. I believe that. He is excellent in Russia. Spezza is also an excellent 4C though. Robinson is whatever, 4th liner who has a positive impact, and Hathaway hits hard. Jones is a prospect, might be Hathaway next year. Amadio is meh. I definitely lean Toronto here outside of C.

D1: The great debate. Is Ekholm/Dumba good enough? Well, Dumba has plenty of defensive gaffs, and Ekholm is near flawless, so I do believe Ekholm can cover for Dumba. Dumba is a strong 3/okay 2, while Ekholm is an underrated 1D. They do compliment each other well. Sergachev though is a good 2 and McAvoy is a good 1. I don't think you can debate this, Toronto takes it, but it is closer than >> after further thought with how well they compliment, and Sergachevs ability away from a blueline with Hedman.

D2: Cole-Gustafsson is essentially an older/worse Skjei-Cernak. Cernak is a solid 3, Skjei is a very good 4, Cole is an okay 4 and same for Gustafsson. They're basically the same idea but Montreals guys are better both today and tomorrow, I take Montreal's D2 comfortably.

D3: All 4 guys are #5s today. I think it's relatively close, Dobson is probably a #4 by the end of the year, so I take Montreal, it's also just a more fun pair, and Holden is getting old/slow/ineffective and replaced by Whitecloud. Holden probably ends up a #6 or worse by the end of the year, so his decline against Dobsons progression settled it, but its all close.

G: It all depends on Price's season. He can steal a series, but Markstrom is an elite goalie today. They're very close, as are the backups, but Rittich is a touch more experienced. I'd take Price here due to game stealing potential but it is super close. If I really had to decide I take Toronto.

Overall: It's a very close matchup, IMO Montreal wins depth but Toronto won L1, D1 and G, so for that I take Toronto. If you think ZAR and co can help get Eichel away from Mack without letting in lots of goals, you could take Montreal.

HN, I would just like to draw you towards the fact you came up with this conclusion yourself. You yourself know that TOR is the better team. Now for the statistics side of it (for @42 jerks as well)

We obviously work with a ton of hypotheticals for these games. But this season, the playoff numbers for some of Toronto's key players are elite.

MacKinnon:
25 points in 15 games
70% CF% (+21.5 rel)
73% GF% (5v5)

^ Absolutely mind boggling, insane numbers. He carried that broken down Avs team like we haven't seen in a long time.

Burakovsky:
17 points in 15 games
58% CF% (+2.5 rel)
65% GF% (5v5)

Sergachev:
58% CF% (+4.5 rel)
60 GF% (5v5)

Price (he's healthy!!):
.945 SV% (5v5)
.928 SV% over his last 4 playoff runs combined

^ He turns it up in the postseason

This team is built for the playoffs, has a top line of complementary skillsets and proven success, a D1 that is already elite and growing for next season, and a goalie with an insane track record of results. I like @OB5 , I like his Montreal team, it's a shame one of us is out so early, but Toronto is the better team here.

 

[OB5]

HN, I would just like to draw you towards the fact you came up with this conclusion yourself. You yourself know that TOR is the better team. Now for the statistics side of it (for @42 jerks as well)

We obviously work with a ton of hypotheticals for these games. But this season, the playoff numbers for some of Toronto's key players are elite.

MacKinnon:
25 points in 15 games
70% CF% (+21.5 rel)
73% GF% (5v5)

^ Absolutely mind boggling, insane numbers. He carried that broken down Avs team like we haven't seen in a long time.

Burakovsky:
17 points in 15 games
58% CF% (+2.5 rel)
65% GF% (5v5)

Sergachev:
58% CF% (+4.5 rel)
60 GF% (5v5)

Price (he's healthy!!):
.945 SV% (5v5)
.928 SV% over his last 4 playoff runs combined

^ He turns it up in the postseason

This team is built for the playoffs, has a top line of complementary skillsets and proven success, a D1 that is already elite and growing for next season, and a goalie with an insane track record of results. I like @OB5 , I like his Montreal team, it's a shame one of us is out so early, but Toronto is the better team here.

Also completely incorrect.

 

[BeLeafing]

Also completely incorrect.

#statsdontlie

 

[OB5]

At least I won the gut vote

 

[emptyNedder]

McAvoy>>Ekholm

You made some good points for Toronto over Montreal. However, this one undermines a good bit of your argument.

Boston has been the better team most post-seasons. Not to ridicule Panda, here is post-season production:

McAvoy 54gp/4g/16a/-2
Ekholm 65gp/6g/24a/+12

If you had called them even, I would say your opinion is reasonable.

 

[hockeynorth]

You made some good points for Toronto over Montreal. However, this one undermines a good bit of your argument.

Boston has been the better team most post-seasons. Not to ridicule Panda, here is post-season production:

McAvoy 54gp/4g/16a/-2
Ekholm 65gp/6g/24a/+12

If you had called them even, I would say your opinion is reasonable.

Uh ohhhh