Fantasy Draft R4

[Llamamoto]

1



Matthew Thachuk - Auston Matthews - Rielly Smith
Jason Zucker - Nico Hischier - Bryan Rust
Nikita Gusev - Chris Tierney - Zach Kassian
Yakov Trenin - Cody Eakin - Blake Comeau

Sam Girard - Connor Murphy
Ryan Murray - Jacob Trouba
Jon Merrill - Trevor van Riemsdyk

Semyon Varlamov
Troy Grosenick

vs



Oliver Bjorkstrand - Tomas Hertl - Mark Stone
Jakub Vrana - Mikael Granlund - Joonas Donskoi
Carl Hagelin - Nick Bonino - Artturi Lehkonen
Rasmus Asplund - Michael McLeod - Philip Tomasino

Roman Josi - Adam Larsson
Cam Fowler - Nick Jensen
Tobias Bjornfot - Henri Jokiharju

Tuukka Rask
Jeremy Swayman



2



Marchand - Suzuki - Fiala
Lafreniere - Henrique - Keller
Copp - Mittelstadt - Nichushkin
Cousins - Perfetti - A. Nylander

Slavin - Severson
De Haan - Zub
P.O. Joseph - Montour


Bernier
Bobrovsky

vs



Zach Hyman - Sean Couturier - Viktor Arvidsson
Matthew Boldy - Dylan Larkin - Conor Garland
Ilya Mikheyev - Radek Faksa - Corey Perry
Peyton Krebs - Riley Damiani - Alex Barabanov

Hampus Lindholm - MacKenzie Weegar
Brayden McNabb - Filip Hronek
Marc Staal - Ian Cole

Jacob Markstrom
Jonathan Quick
​

Click to read more...

 

[Panda Bear]

New Jersey vs Boston
L1: NJ dunks
L2: Boston win*
L3: NJ dunks
L4: Draw

D1: Draw
D2: Boston win
D3: NJ dunks

G1: Boston win
G2: NJ win



* This one has most variables. Larkin rebound, Keller rebound, Henrique rebound, Lafreniere progression, Boldy adaptation. NJ probably wins if every player hits their upside, but Boston's is more likely to do so.

 

[Ainec]

Devils barely. Like barely. Slimmest of margins.

Blues barely as well.


All close matchups

 

[5cotland]

New Jersey vs Boston
L1: NJ dunks
L2: Boston win*
L3: NJ dunks
L4: Draw

D1: Draw
D2: Boston win
D3: NJ dunks

G1: Boston win
G2: NJ win



* This one has most variables. Larkin rebound, Keller rebound, Henrique rebound, Lafreniere progression, Boldy adaptation. NJ probably wins if every player hits their upside, but Boston's is more likely to do so.

I have it as:

NJD - BOS - NJD
NJD - BOS - BOS
NJD - DRAW - BOS
NJD - DRAW - NJD

NJD - BOS
BOS - BOS
NJD - BOS

BOS
BOS

Thats why I voted in favour of Boston on this match up

 

[Panda Bear]

I have it as:

NJD - BOS - NJD
NJD - BOS - BOS
NJD - DRAW - BOS
NJD - DRAW - NJD

NJD - BOS
BOS - BOS
NJD - BOS

BOS
BOS

Thats why I voted in favour of Boston on this match up

These are pretty fair, but I think you're underrating Krueger's victims.

Mittelstadt was fantastic after Krueger left. His reputation will be a lot better by the end of next season, at which point Faksa--who has no offence and isn't actually that good at defensive play--will be seen as clearly inferior.

Montour is a better player than Cole (who isn't even playing his strong side!), but it'll take another season for Montour's reputation to recover. I am lucky that by this time next year, my third pair will likely be seen as a good second pair.

Markstrom just posted a worse season (0.904) with Calgary than Bernier (0.914), and Bernier gets to play for a better team than Detroit this upcoming season.

Quick has posted .888, .904 and .898 the past three seasons while Bob has posted .913, .900 and .906.

With all this said, I think it makes more sense to look at things in terms of lines and pairings than simply comparing individuals. For example, the gap between Garland and Keller is far smaller than the gap between Fiala and Arvidsson.

I think it's worth noting that Larkin put up worse numbers at even strength than Henrique.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

These are pretty fair, but I think you're underrating Krueger's victims.

Mittelstadt was fantastic after Krueger left. His reputation will be a lot better by the end of next season, at which point Faksa--who has no offence and isn't actually that good at defensive play--will be seen as clearly inferior.

Montour is a better player than Cole (who isn't even playing his strong side!), but it'll take another season for Montour's reputation to recover. I am lucky that by this time next year, my third pair will likely be seen as a good second pair.

Markstrom just posted a worse season (0.904) with Calgary than Bernier (0.914), and Bernier gets to play for a better team than Detroit this upcoming season.

Quick has posted .888, .904 and .898 the past three seasons while Bob has posted .913, .900 and .906.

With all this said, I think it makes more sense to look at things in terms of lines and pairings than simply comparing individuals. For example, the gap between Garland and Keller is far smaller than the gap between Fiala and Arvidsson.

I think it's worth noting that Larkin put up worse numbers at even strength than Henrique.

Another fair post, but I can also argue that Blashill's victims are being underrated. Larkin will thrive playing with Garland against weaker competition with Couturier—and to a lesser extent, Faksa—handling the tougher matchups. In Detroit, he's The Guy and carries the team's offense. Hronek would also flourish here as the teams #3 rather than #1. McNabb is a steady partner for him and playing behind Lindholm - Weegar should lighten his load.

 

[Panda Bear]

Another fair post, but I can also argue that Blashill's victims are being underrated. Larkin will thrive playing with Garland against weaker competition with Couturier—and to a lesser extent, Faksa—handling the tougher matchups. In Detroit, he's The Guy and carries the team's offense. Hronek would also flourish here as the teams #3 rather than #1. McNabb is a steady partner for him and playing behind Lindholm - Weegar should lighten his load.

Underrated by whom? I think everybody accepts Hronek is likely better than Zub and that Larkin should be better than Henrique.

It's just worth noting that Henrique, who regularly gets buried by Eakins for youth development reasons, produced better at evens than Larkin this past season.

 

[hockeynorth]

I would like to move on here

 

[hockeynorth]

Fantasy Draft Finals - The Battle of C Depth