News Article: Fantastic article: The Predators and their dominant underlying numbers

[nomorekids]

Predators appear to be peaking for postseason run - Article - TSN

Really good stuff that distills a lot of what I've been talking about in the observations thread -- basically everything you want to see out of a team that is positioning itself to win a Stanley Cup.

Click to read more...

 

[Scoresberg]

Too early?

 

[SauceMyBiscuit]

Too early?

Read the article before posting your daily “they’re peaking too early” post. Basically the Preds have added Fisher, Hartman, and Turris while taking less penalties and giving their top 9 more ice time. They’re also creating line mismatches and their advanced stats are increasing as the year goes along. Yes, the article title has peaking in it, but I think you’re confusing long term improvement and sustainability with peaking.

 

[Pred303]

too early? no one ever knows of course. in fact, one can argue there is no such thing in sports where teams simply go on hot and cold streaks. .

 

[Armourboy]

Yeah the writer actually states that what you are seeing from metrics is what you see from Cup contenders in a normal year. Sure we have been on the best point pace in the league, but we have been doing it while resting players.

I agree on the thought of peaking to early, that doesn't really exist. What it is is the natural ups and downs that goes with a season and a matter of it hitting at the worst possible time.

 

[LCPreds]

I think as fans we call it 'too early' because we don't want to get our hopes up.

Let's face it though. There's a reason why hockey metrics typically say that even the favorite to win the cup only has a ~15% change in doing so. That's not due to peaking at the right/wrong time.

 

[Drake744]

I found this to be a relatively interesting video regarding the randomness of success in the NHL playoffs.......

 

[nomorekids]

The other thing noted here, how much of this coincides with Ellis coming back into the lineup. I think that speaks not so much to how good or valuable he is -- and he definitely is, but more so the impact of having two top pairs and also decreasing the amount of time that some combination of Emelin\Weber\Irwin gets.

I still really wish we had added a better third pairing defenseman to play with Emelin than Yber, as I feel like the third pairing right now is a legit liability every time its on the ice, but every team has to have an achilles heel I guess.

 

[Armourboy]

Well and just about every teams 3rd pairing is something that is a liability. Yeah sure some are not as bad, but generally speaking if your 3rd pair gets hung out against another's top line it's not going to be good.

I agree we probably could have used an upgrade on that 3rd pair, but let's face it it still would have been a liability.

 

[SauceMyBiscuit]

The other thing noted here, how much of this coincides with Ellis coming back into the lineup. I think that speaks not so much to how good or valuable he is -- and he definitely is, but more so the impact of having two top pairs and also decreasing the amount of time that some combination of Emelin\Weber\Irwin gets.

I still really wish we had added a better third pairing defenseman to play with Emelin than Yber, as I feel like the third pairing right now is a legit liability every time its on the ice, but every team has to have an achilles heel I guess.

Yeah if our Achilles heel is our 6th defenseman, I think we should be pretty happy. Think about the teams with a top 6 problem, top 4 problem, or goalie issues going into the playoffs. Let’s be thankful we’re not Washington who’s having all three issues right now.

 

[Price is Wright]

Yeah if our Achilles heel is our 6th defenseman, I think we should be pretty happy. Think about the teams with a top 6 problem, top 4 problem, or goalie issues going into the playoffs. Let’s be thankful we’re not Washington who’s having all three issues right now.

Especially when the top 4 RD depth is good enough to just play the #6 minutes entirely if a coach is leaning on the third pair.

 

[ThirdManIn]

too early? no one ever knows of course. in fact, one can argue there is no such thing in sports where teams simply go on hot and cold streaks. .

Yeah I'm one of those who thinks there is no such thing as peaking too early; it is merely that teams go into hot or cold streaks and those streak influence the way individuals play as well as how the entire team plays (obviously).

Someone mentioned Nashville was peaking too early, so I looked at their points pace for each month. With the exception of October and February, each month was somewhere in the 110-115 points pace. October was obviously a mediocre month, and February was on the high side (123 point pace, I believe). I didn't include March for reasons that should be apparent.

The truth is that Nashville has been a fairly consistent team which continues to improve. Of course, looking at their meager 14 regulation losses on the year should tell you that they have been a model of consistency insofar as winning is concerned (how they play in those wins hasn't been nearly as consistent).

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Well and just about every teams 3rd pairing is something that is a liability. Yeah sure some are not as bad, but generally speaking if your 3rd pair gets hung out against another's top line it's not going to be good.

I agree we probably could have used an upgrade on that 3rd pair, but let's face it it still would have been a liability.

Winnipeg, St. Louis, and to a small degree Calgary's third pairing are fine.

 

[Armourboy]

Winnipeg, St. Louis, and to a small degree Calgary's third pairing are fine.

Not if they get hung out against Sidney Crosby they arent.

 

[Drake744]

Winnipeg, St. Louis, and to a small degree Calgary's third pairing are fine.

He said just about every team

 

[ThirdManIn]

Well and just about every teams 3rd pairing is something that is a liability. Yeah sure some are not as bad, but generally speaking if your 3rd pair gets hung out against another's top line it's not going to be good.

I agree we probably could have used an upgrade on that 3rd pair, but let's face it it still would have been a liability.

Colorado's top line is probably the best in the league right now, too.

 

[Armourboy]

He said just about every team

And the Jets just lost Kulikov, so that 3rd pairing just got a bit worse for them as well.