Bear of Bad News
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- Sep 27, 2005
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"Fancystats" quietly leading NHL teams to dump the dump-and-chase strategy
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Kyle McMahon
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- May 10, 2006
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I think the article is trying way too hard to attribute very small changes in performance to something that would be a fairly major shift in strategy (going from dump and chase to possession).
Minnesota's record last year is practically identical to their record through 48 games this year. Similar goal differential as well. Using them as the "proof" that possession is more effective than dump and chase is rather strange.
The other teams mentioned in the article have also not experienced any great difference in performance. Dallas is the same as last year, Nashville slightly improved, Washington slightly worse. And in fact, if Dallas, Nashville, and Minnesota all performed at a level similar to last year, we should expect a minor improvement due to having some games against weak Eastern opponents this year. We should expect a slightly worse standing for Washington for the same reason. The Preds and Caps have behaved as expected, while you could argue the Wild and Stars have in fact been slightly worse than last season.
There's really no basis for using the results of those four clubs as a ringing endorsement for any specific strategy. And that's before we consider any roster changes that took place as well, hardly a controlled experiment.
Minnesota's record last year is practically identical to their record through 48 games this year. Similar goal differential as well. Using them as the "proof" that possession is more effective than dump and chase is rather strange.
The other teams mentioned in the article have also not experienced any great difference in performance. Dallas is the same as last year, Nashville slightly improved, Washington slightly worse. And in fact, if Dallas, Nashville, and Minnesota all performed at a level similar to last year, we should expect a minor improvement due to having some games against weak Eastern opponents this year. We should expect a slightly worse standing for Washington for the same reason. The Preds and Caps have behaved as expected, while you could argue the Wild and Stars have in fact been slightly worse than last season.
There's really no basis for using the results of those four clubs as a ringing endorsement for any specific strategy. And that's before we consider any roster changes that took place as well, hardly a controlled experiment.
PenguinMario
Registered User
It's a chicken-or-the-egg problem. The SI writer thinks that certain teams are good because they carry the puck instead of dumping it in. I think certain players carry the puck instead of dumping it because they're good. It's like the misleading correlation between rushing attempts and wins in the NFL - you run when you win, not win when you run.
It's not helpful to tell players to carry the puck through the neutral zone, much less regroup and attack again when there's no space, because not everybody is a member of the Russian Five.
"Why don't you try hitting the ball in between the fielders, and not at them? Or better yet, just hit it over that wall way over there. Then they can't get to it at all."
And as you noted, these teams have seen their shot and goal metrics budge a percentage point or two, at most. It's a bit of a stretch to immediately give that credit to a change in entry strategy.
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As an excellent SBN article pointed out, the Kings are the most dominant possession team in hockey, yet at the same time are almost exclusively dump-and-chase. Of course, it also pointed out that they derive a lot of possession from excellent neutral zone play, which the fancy stats crowd emphasizes.
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