F Samu Tuomaala - Jukurit Liiga/U20 (2021, 46th, PHI)

[ikzu]

As a summary: Using some source criticism might not be a bad idea.

Criticism seems to be next to impossible for certain finnish fans.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Criticism seems to be next to impossible for certain finnish fans.

He's speculating, not criticizing, though. Mostly. The conclusions he is making are more ridiculous than what anyone else on this thread has said.

I'll wait and see.


"This guy is this and this size so he's as good as these other guys who are the same size, at the most".

Like...what?

 

[LoveHateLeafs]

Admittedly some of my writing is a bit provocative but I hope you understand that that’s often a requirement when you try to challenge the prevailing outlook in a message board like this.

Rajala, Pulkkinen and Tolvanen were smallish wingers who were projected highly here at HFBoards. Tuomaala fits to that category.

If Tuomaala grows a couple of inches he might fit better to the same bracket with guys like Donskoi, Lehkonen and Kapanen, but it remains to be seen whether that happens. And I don’t think those guys were ever projected as top-5 picks by prospect nerds around here.

And speaking about agenda, why bring Kakko to this discussion and not say a word about Henri Nikkanen and Leevi Aaltonen for example? See how it works both ways.

And I don’t think it was any easier to score in Jr.B when Rajala, Haula, Vatanen, Pulkkinen, Granlund and Donskoi played there 11 or 12 years ago.

Tuomaala looked very good with the U16 national team, but I wasn’t that impressed with him when I saw him play against some of the better teams in Jr.B. That skating that everyone is praising about looked less imposing, that shot was often blocked or no where near to its intended target, and his overall impact to the game wasn’t anything earth shattering.

I’m an old fart by the standards of this forum and I’ve seen plenty of prospects come and go during the last 20 years starting from guys like Kari Lehtonen and Joni Pitkänen. As a kid I even saw Eric Lindros visit Finland with some Canadian national team before his NHL career. Based on my experience I feel that the hype around Tuomaala as a potential top-5 pick is unwarranted and that’s why I’m voicing my opinion about it.

On the other hand, I feel that the hype around Aatu Räty is mostly warranted. I think that he could be a top-10 pick if all the things go well, but that’s also the reason why you won’t see me discussing about him that much. There’s nothing much to debate about him.

What's your read on Tuomaala's hockey IQ at this point?

 

[kelsier]

Criticism seems to be next to impossible for certain finnish fans.

Yeap, duly noted. Tormentor is one of the better informed posters out there too. Though it's as he was often predicting based on the floor instead of the actual upside. This or that, wouldn't take lightly of the insights.

 

[Koira666]

I saw roughly 20 games where Tuomaala played and I can say hockey IQ is definitely not there. He can be extremely selfish with the puck and his long periods on the ice and his lack of efforf in defence cost a lot goals last season.

That being he still put a lot of assist so I guess his hockey IQ might still be there.

 

[Tormentor]

"This guy is this and this size so he's as good as these other guys who are the same size, at the most".

Like...what?

There was a drought period after Lauri Tukonen, Jesse Joensuu and Tuukka Rask where we didn’t see any exciting Finnish prospects for a few years. Then Toni Rajala, Teemu Pulkkinen and Mikael Granlund emerged, and the hype grew to epic proportions here at HFBoards. These guys were flashy, highly skilled and scoring at a record pace, finally there was something to be cheerful about.

In the end Granlund was the only one who lived up to the hype from those three. The combination of excellent hockey sense, high skill level and great work ethic helped him to overcome the limitations of his smallish stature and what some at the time called B-minus skating.

Why Rajala and Pulkkinen failed to establish their place in North America is a topic for another day, but some of the common factors between them and Eeli Tolvanen who emerged later are smallish stature, being a winger, scoring at a record pace in juniors, receiving a ton of hype, and then failing to live up to the early top-10 expectations.

Generalisation and putting people in different brackets is often a flawed practice. That said, there aren’t too many Finnish wingers in the NHL who are under 6-0 tall. Komarov, the Granlund brothers, Salomäki and Teräväinen played more or less as centre forwards when growing up, so at the moment Lehkonen is the only one who qualifies as a pure winger in this group.

Tuomaala might still grow, but if he doesn’t, it’s statistically unlikely that he becomes a top-10 pick or an NHL regular. There are statistical anomalies of course, but for the most part history tends to repeat itself.

All this drivel may seem stupid and ridiculous to you, but there are people in NHL organizations who keep a close track of history and statistics in hopes of getting an upper hand against their competition. They are more advanced and intelligent with their analysis, but there are some nuggets of information to be found even at a rudimentary level like this. What we see on the ice is of course the most important thing but it would be foolish to completely overlook what happened in the past.

What's your read on Tuomaala's hockey IQ at this point?

At that age guys like Mikael Granlund and Sebastian Aho were more impressive in terms of hockey sense and puck handing. I don’t think this is a red flag in Tuomaala’s game, but it’ll still be interesting to see how well he learns to deal with a more challenging environment next season.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

There was a drought period after Lauri Tukonen, Jesse Joensuu and Tuukka Rask where we didn’t see any exciting Finnish prospects for a few years. Then Toni Rajala, Teemu Pulkkinen and Mikael Granlund emerged, and the hype grew to epic proportions here at HFBoards. These guys were flashy, highly skilled and scoring at a record pace, finally there was something to be cheerful about.

In the end Granlund was the only one who lived up to the hype from those three. The combination of excellent hockey sense, high skill level and great work ethic helped him to overcome the limitations of his smallish stature and what some at the time called B-minus skating.

Why Rajala and Pulkkinen failed to establish their place in North America is a topic for another day, but some of the common factors between them and Eeli Tolvanen who emerged later are smallish stature, being a winger, scoring at a record pace in juniors, receiving a ton of hype, and then failing to live up to the early top-10 expectations..

Rajala and Pulkkinen failed because they were not good enough. Just like Eeli Tolvanen will if he is not good enough (I think he'll make it, he's an OK skater, learned to use his shot on small ice last season). Couple of inches wouldn't have saved either of these players.

 

[Tormentor]

Rajala and Pulkkinen failed because they were not good enough. Just like Eeli Tolvanen will if he is not good enough (I think he'll make it, he's an OK skater, learned to use his shot on small ice last season). Couple of inches wouldn't have saved either of these players.

It’s obvious that they weren’t good enough, but it’s impossible to say whether those couple of missing inches made a decisive difference or not. Height and reach aren’t nearly as important in hockey as they are in basketball for example, but these factors still impact the game in a fairly significant manner.

At one point Rajala and Pulkkinen were offensively some of the most gifted junior players in the whole world. Rajala was the top scorer at 2009 World U18 World Championships with 10 goals and 9 assists in 6 games, and a year later Pulkkinen took home that same title with 10 goals and 5 assists in 6 games.

Are there aspects in Tuomaala’s game which make you believe he’s overall a better prospect than what those two were back in the day? How would you rate him in terms of skating, speed, lateral agility, contact balance, puck handling, puck protection, play under pressure, passing, playmaking ability, shooting, scoring touch, reading of the play, decision making, versatility, athleticism, physical play, toughness, compete level, defensive play and consistency?

 

[Kaako Kappo]

It’s obvious that they weren’t good enough, but it’s impossible to say whether those couple of missing inches made a decisive difference or not. Height and reach aren’t nearly as important in hockey as they are in basketball for example, but these factors still impact the game in a fairly significant manner.

At one point Rajala and Pulkkinen were offensively some of the most gifted junior players in the whole world. Rajala was the top scorer at 2009 World U18 World Championships with 10 goals and 9 assists in 6 games, and a year later Pulkkinen took home that same title with 10 goals and 5 assists in 6 games.

Are there aspects in Tuomaala’s game which make you believe he’s overall a better prospect than what those two were back in the day? How would you rate him in terms of skating, speed, lateral agility, contact balance, puck handling, puck protection, play under pressure, passing, playmaking ability, shooting, scoring touch, reading of the play, decision making, versatility, athleticism, physical play, toughness, compete level, defensive play and consistency?

I have not watched Tuomaala play and the only assessment i have made of him is that the shot looks damn good. You are trying to challenge me in order to make me look stupid, but it has nothing to do with the things i criticised you about. We are talking about size and your silly takes on it, nothing more.

 

[FinPanda]

It’s obvious that they weren’t good enough, but it’s impossible to say whether those couple of missing inches made a decisive difference or not. Height and reach aren’t nearly as important in hockey as they are in basketball for example, but these factors still impact the game in a fairly significant manner.

At one point Rajala and Pulkkinen were offensively some of the most gifted junior players in the whole world. Rajala was the top scorer at 2009 World U18 World Championships with 10 goals and 9 assists in 6 games, and a year later Pulkkinen took home that same title with 10 goals and 5 assists in 6 games.

Are there aspects in Tuomaala’s game which make you believe he’s overall a better prospect than what those two were back in the day? How would you rate him in terms of skating, speed, lateral agility, contact balance, puck handling, puck protection, play under pressure, passing, playmaking ability, shooting, scoring touch, reading of the play, decision making, versatility, athleticism, physical play, toughness, compete level, defensive play and consistency?

Isn't it kinda old to only watch size nowadays? NHL is getting smaller and faster. I haven't seen Tuomaala play but I don't think it isn't because of his height if he doesn't make it.

 

[ikzu]

You are trying to challenge me in order to make me look stupid, but it has nothing to do with the things i criticised you about.

Well, you compared Tuomaala to Kakko on how many points they've put up at same age. Tormentor has tried to explain you, why it's quite silly at this point to just stare at the statistics or one highlight clip. He's really seen Tuomaala playing, but you haven't.

One poster wrote that Tuomaala will be TOP5 pick based on just one highlight clip, that he saw. And Tormentor has correctly argued, why claiming such thing at this point is getting ahead of things.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Well, you compared Tuomaala to Kakko on how many points they've put up at same age. Tormentor has tried to explain you, why it's quite silly at this point to just stare at the statistics or one highlight clip and to get ahead of things. He's really seen Tuomaala playing, but you haven't.

I haven't made any assessments about his present or future form. I merely pointed out that Kakko for an example produced similar numbers to Tuomaala, to make a point that the production is not that low and you can't make any judgement off of it. I have not claimed to have seen Tuomaala playing and I have not said anything about where I think he should go or how good he currently is, because I do not have any idea. I have only said that making assumptions based on U18 B junior production (Which isn't even that bad) and player height at the age of 16 is silly. The rest of his points I did not argue, because I cannot. I'll make up my own opinion of the kid once I've actually seen him play.

TLDR: You are accusing me of something I'm accusing him of. Your post is a bit silly and it's pretty obvious you haven't even read the discussion.

I feel like @Ippenator for typing out such a long rambling post. Ugh.

 

[ijuka]

Well, you compared Tuomaala to Kakko on how many points they've put up at same age. Tormentor has tried to explain you, why it's quite silly at this point to just stare at the statistics or one highlight clip. He's really seen Tuomaala playing, but you haven't.

One poster wrote that Tuomaala will be TOP5 pick based on just one highlight clip, that he saw. And Tormentor has correctly argued, why claiming such thing at this point is getting ahead of things.

The person who claimed Tuomaala will be a top 5 pick, would be TPEHockey, right? The one who actually made the highlight clip. And I assume that's why the person said that Tuomaala could be a top 5 pick - not due to that highlight video alone:


And I'm not sure who has said that his production proves that he's a top 5 pick or whatever. However, the point was made that Tuomaala's production's quite a bit better than Kakko's at the same age, so his production being "not that good" being used as an argument doesn't really make sense. I haven't watched him in BSM so I can't comment on his play there, though his production there's been very good by my standards. I watched almost all his international games, however, and he's been the best player for Finland in most games. He also possesses some of the high-end, projectable attributes. I don't have an opinion on his hockey IQ at this point, but I also don't just blindly trust people's opinions on hockey IQ either - I'll watch and make the judgment myself when I see him against strong enough competition.

My main issue was that the argumentation and logic used by Tormentor was weak and didn't make a whole lot of sense. The point might or might not be wrong.

 

[Koira666]

Tuomaala is out for 3-4 months due to repetitive strain injury in his back so he won’t be in Hlinka.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How does he compare to Kupari?

 

[Tormentor]

Isn't it kinda old to only watch size nowadays? NHL is getting smaller and faster.

The game is faster, and the players weigh less than 15 years ago, but I believe the average height of NHL forwards has more or less stayed the same. There were shorter forwards like Theo Fleury, Paul Kariya, Pavel Pure, Cliff Ronning, Ray Whitney, Martin Straka, Sami Kapanen and Igor Larionov playing in the NHL 20 years ago, so things haven’t changed that drastically up front

Granlund and Fiala are 5-10 tall and were selected high in the draft, but they are anomalies among Europeans. Generally you have to be 5-11 or taller to be in consideration for top-10, that seems to be how it goes. Perhaps this changes in the future, but I haven’t seen any proof of it yet.

And I wouldn’t be focusing so heavily on size and stats if I felt the player in question would be worthy of top-10 consideration based on his performances on the ice. He’s a good player but not exceptional.

However, the point was made that Tuomaala's production's quite a bit better than Kakko's at the same age, so his production being "not that good" being used as an argument doesn't really make sense.

I mentioned in my first post that stat scouting can be very misleading. Also, the point I was trying to make was about how smallish Finnish wingers struggle to become NHL regulars even when they score at a record pace in juniors. Tuomaala is a smallish winger, so for me it made more sense to compare him to other such players rather than someone like Armia, Laine, Puljujärvi or Kakko. You may see this differently and that’s perfectly fine.

He also possesses some of the high-end, projectable attributes.

Consider the possibility that those U16 national games gave a slightly distorted or one-sided view of how good Tuomaala’s attributes are. Players can look different in different environments and playing against his peers seemed to suite Tuomaala better than playing against older competition in Jr.B.

Anyways, I’d be interested to hear what you think about him once you see him in Jr.A or with the U18 national team. Higher the level of play, the more it tells about the player I believe.

How does he compare to Kupari?

A hybrid between Joni Ikonen, Kasperi Kapanen and Rasmus Kupari might be a fairly good fit as an early comparison.

 

[JJTT]

Decent start in a-juniors with 3 points in 3 games after missing the start of the season with injury.

It's absolutely insane how good team Kärpät has for this level 9 games, 9 wins 38 - 11 goal diference.

With Räty's with the big team, Tuomaala should get a top 6 role with good linemates for the rest of the season, played with Koskenkorva and Puhakka today, who are both very good players for this level.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

I have been trying -- with no success -- to find a website where I can track the Finnish Junior A league or even Karpat junior A stats and results. If someone knows of a link to share (even in Finnish) I would be grateful.

 

[ijuka]

Etsi

This is the Finnish one. Maybe eliteprospects would be OK for an English source but they have a ton of wrong info or they merge leagues that just aren't the same.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Etsi

This is the Finnish one. Maybe eliteprospects would be OK for an English source but they have a ton of wrong info or they merge leagues that just aren't the same.

Thank you. That's exactly what I am looking for.

 

[Svedu]

How is he progressing? Top pick for 2021?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Good player from what I saw. Reminds me a lot of Kupari. Tremendous skater, very skilled, good shot, questionable decision making.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Drafted by Sudbury. If he reports and Byfield returns, he'd score 100+ points and be a leading goal scorer in the league playing with Byfield. Could help his draft stock a lot. It's not like Karpat's going to be using him in the first team. There's already a log-jam of skilled forwards waiting for playing time in the first team.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

Drafted by Sudbury. If he reports and Byfield returns, he'd score 100+ points and be a leading goal scorer in the league playing with Byfield. Could help his draft stock a lot. It's not like Karpat's going to be using him in the first team. There's already a log-jam of skilled forwards waiting for playing time in the first team.

Kärpät at eliteprospects.com

Kärpät's SM liiga roster for now.
No Tuomaala on the team right now.
But that doesn't mean yet he's going to Sudbury Kärpät can still sign him if they decide so.

 

[Killerjas]

Kärpät at eliteprospects.com

Kärpät's SM liiga roster for now.
No Tuomaala on the team right now.
But that doesn't mean yet he's going to Sudbury Kärpät can still sign him if they decide so.

I highly doubt he starts in the Liiga from the get go, that might be why he is not listed (yet).