F Brady Tkachuk (2018, 4th, OTT)

[93LEAFS]

Isn’t anyone worried that at every level he has played with the best on his team, potential first rounders, or actual first rounders.?
That makes things so much easier. On one hand you can say he’s earned it, on the others hand you can say he’s been very fortunate.
That does worry me.
A lot like Hayton. And now Veleno (who I like) or any of the Mooseheads.
So much rides on who you play with. So much.

Not really. He’s projected more as a high end complimentary player more than someone who needs the puck. He’s excellent at his role. Veleno needs the puck a lot to play his current game which is harder to take successfully to the next level. He’ll either have to make it as the primary driver for his line or adapt significantly. That isn’t really a worry with Brady. If you already have an elite play driving center or a potential one, you want Brady on his wing.

While I think his brother was better at driving play, he had the exact same knocks playing with players way better than Brady ever has. He’s pretty quickly removed any doubt around him and looks potentially under drafted.

 

[Samuel Culper III]

How does Brady compare to Matt? Matt is a stud and I haven’t seen much of Brady. Is he as physical? He’s projected to go in the same range and this looks like a good draft. Do we expect Brady to put up similar numbers at the NHL level?

 

[elitepete]

Not really. He’s projected more as a high end complimentary player more than someone who needs the puck. He’s excellent at his role. Veleno needs the puck a lot to play his current game which is harder to take successfully to the next level. He’ll either have to make it as the primary driver for his line or adapt significantly. That isn’t really a worry with Brady. If you already have an elite play driving center or a potential one, you want Brady on his wing.

While I think his brother was better at driving play, he had the exact same knocks playing with players way better than Brady ever has. He’s pretty quickly removed any doubt around him and looks potentially under drafted.

He would look amazing with Horvat-Boeser or Pettersson.

 

[93LEAFS]

How does Brady compare to Matt? Matt is a stud and I haven’t seen much of Brady. Is he as physical? He’s projected to go in the same range and this looks like a good draft. Do we expect Brady to put up similar numbers at the NHL level?

Matt was more refined,had better vision but a worse skater. Brady’s a better skater but his game is more raw, which makes him more projectable but also higher risk. I would have taken Matt over Brady at their draft date, but I can see the reasons for preferring Brady (taller, bigger frame, more physical and a better skater).

 

[JK2K]

7 goals in 34 games.
I day away from being drafted last year.
Cracks starting to form or is everyone still happy with production?

 

[Frk It]

7 goals in 34 games.
I day away from being drafted last year.
Cracks starting to form or is everyone still happy with production?

Still like him as a prospect - but I'd take Svechnikov, Zadina, and Wahlstrom before him at this point in time.

 

[JK2K]

Shane Bowers who is about 2 months older and drafted 28th in 2017 (which was an average to below average draft) has 16 goals Playing for BU (the same team as Tkachuk)
Tkachuk has 7. Yes 7.
I know we like his grit, but 7 goals with skilled line mates and all the pp time you can get? Still top 5? Top 10?
Not sure why he is not a dropper? Everyone else is or would be with the exception of Kupari, who has a paltry 6 goals... but that’s for another thread.

 

[Frk It]

Shane Bowers who is about 2 months older and drafted 28th in 2017 (which was an average to below average draft) has 16 goals Playing for BU (the same team as Tkachuk)
Tkachuk has 7. Yes 7.
I know we like his grit, but 7 goals with skilled line mates and all the pp time you can get? Still top 5? Top 10?
Not sure why he is not a dropper? Everyone else is or would be with the exception of Kupari, who has a paltry 6 goals... but that’s for another thread.

His 19 assists are top 3 among U19 players in the NCAA.

 

[JK2K]

His 19 assists are top 3 among U19 players in the NCAA.

Zero goals last 9 games after scoring 2 in an 8-0 route of Arizona State.

 

[JK2K]

A quick look at some first round forwards and their results in their first year in NCAA.
Since 2015
GP. G. A.

Eichel 40. 26. 45

White. 37. 19. 24

Roslovic. 36. 10. 16

Keller. 31. 21. 24

Kunin. 34. 19. 13

Thompson. 36. 14. 18

Just 33. 16. 19

TKACHUK. 34. 7. 19

Still interested in top 5?

 

[MatthewFlames]

A quick look at some first round forwards and their results in their first year in NCAA.
Since 2015
GP. G. A.

Eichel 40. 26. 45

Larkin 35. 15. 32

White. 37. 19. 24

Roslovic. 36. 10. 16

Keller. 31. 21. 24

Kunin. 34. 19. 13

Thompson. 36. 14. 18

Just 33. 16. 19

TKACHUK. 34. 7. 19

Still interested in top 5?

Fixed.

 

[Frk It]

Just because he’s a late birthday doesn’t mean you should use other guys +1 seasons.

Colin White has a Jan birthday... he’d be 9 months older at the start of his freshman season. Same thing with Roslovic.

Other guys are maybe fine - but I’d cross off White, Roslovic, and probably Jost.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Just because he’s a late birthday doesn’t mean you should use other guys +1 seasons.

Colin White has a Jan birthday... he’d be 9 months older at the start of his freshman season. Same thing with Roslovic.

Other guys are maybe fine - but I’d cross off White, Roslovic, and probably Jost.

Birth year is the proper way to compare player's stats, as players with the same birth year typically play against each other all through minor hockey and at the junior level as well.

If you want to make the argument that 9 months of extra time alive is a significant benefit that is worth considering in player evaluation, that's another thing.

 

[Hfbsux]

In my opinion, I think being drafted do impact every player in a positive way. Drafted players have all kinds of professional tips from their NHL team on what they should work on and what not. Most of them attend the NHL rookie or conditionning camp. I firmly believe this gives them more experience and confidence compared to undrafted players. That's why I'd rather compare players by their draft year.

 

[Captain97]

Birth year is the proper way to compare player's stats, as players with the same birth year typically play against each other all through minor hockey and at the junior level as well.

If you want to make the argument that 9 months of extra time alive is a significant benefit that is worth considering in player evaluation, that's another thing.

In young men it certainly is that's the difference between someone who has fillEd out and someone who is still basically a kid build wise.

 

[93LEAFS]

There is a middle ground, and the proper way would be to use age adjustments. To use either dogmatically is extreme.

 

[Captain Clutch]

A quick look at some first round forwards and their results in their first year in NCAA.
Since 2015
GP. G. A.

Eichel 40. 26. 45

White. 37. 19. 24

Roslovic. 36. 10. 16

Keller. 31. 21. 24

Kunin. 34. 19. 13

Thompson. 36. 14. 18

Just 33. 16. 19

TKACHUK. 34. 7. 19

Still interested in top 5?

This is just too simplistic, a perfect example of lack of context. For instance, as a scout, sure you would like to see production, no doubt but defining production is a trickier issue. I would argue that you need to look at shots to better judge Tkachuk. Now I have no idea whether Tkachuk should be in the top 5 or not but I do know that he has 111 shots through those 34 games which places him 4th among NCAA freshman, not shabby, and that his shooting percentage is only 6.3% this year, suggesting that most of his issues and the main reason that his goal scoring lags his assist numbers is nothing more than bad puck luck. I haven't watched Tkachuk other than a couple of games in the World Juniors, so I have no idea if he passes the eye test but I wouldn't be overly concerned solely because of the lack of goal scoring this year.

 

[JK2K]

They would laugh that arguement out of any arbitration case.
If number of shots is what you look at, then you’d better look at where the shots are coming from.
Are they quality scoring chances or is he just shooting from everywhere or every angle?
Results are results.
Look back at his history. He has never been an elite goal scorer.....even if he always had the most shots.
Anyway. I think it’s something to keep an eye on.

 

[Castle8130]

In the entire league, there are only 4 people at/and above a ppg pace right now that have played at least 30 games. They are also all 20+ in age and 3 of them play together.

 

[JK2K]

7 goals. 2 against Arizona State in an 8-0 win......

Just sayin.........

 

[JK2K]

Has there ever been a NCAA forward taken anywhere in the first round, never mind top 5, with 7 or less goals in that season? Ever?
Anyone?

 

[Frk It]

Blake Wheeler had 9 goals in his first season at Minnesota, which was his +2 season.

Give it a rest, the season’s not even done yet.

Has there ever been a NCAA forward taken anywhere in the first round, never mind top 5, with 7 or less goals in that season? Ever?
Anyone?

Ryan Poehling

 

[schnapshot]

Ryan Poehling

And he was the youngest player in the NCAA.

 

[JK2K]

Is regular season not over?

 

[JK2K]

I asked if there were any 7 or less.
At these numbers, 9 is a 23% improvement.