F Alexis Lafreniere (2020, 1st, NYR) part 3

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SympathyForTheDevils

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But if Byfield is even a 50/50 proposition for Yzerman, and if Ottawa wants Lafreniere, why not go get that #18 pick.

At #1, there's no 50/50 pick. It's a franchise-altering pick. They have scouts that have spent dozens of hours watching these guys play, and they almost certainly prefer one of these guys over the other. And realistically, that preference is worth more than whoever is picked at #18 (in this range, you're lucky if the player you get winds up being an NHL regular).

If Ottawa was offering another top-10 pick instead, then, sure, that would be worth considering.
 

HisNoodliness

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At #1, there's no 50/50 pick. It's a franchise-altering pick. They have scouts that have spent dozens of hours watching these guys play, and they almost certainly prefer one of these guys over the other. And realistically, that preference is worth more than whoever is picked at #18 (in this range, you're lucky if the player you get winds up being an NHL regular).

If Ottawa was offering another top-10 pick instead, then, sure, that would be worth considering.
The preference can be very mild even for such an important pick. There's no reason that Lafreniere and Byfield have to be well seperated on their board. If I was planning on taking Byfield at 1, I'd trade down to 2 super happily for 18th OA. It's just an extra free first round pick. Sure it may turn into nothing, might also turn into Mantha or Larkin. We need as many of those as possible so I'll take Byfield with the chance I have to take the consensus 1st OA pick and another 18 OA over just taking Byfield every day of the week.
 
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Corso

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One can never know how a particular GM or scouting department views certain players but I would be utterly shocked to see Stevie Y trade down to take Byfield at 2 for an extra mid first draft pick. It's not that I don't like Byfield but he's just not at a level that screams guaranteed 1st line franchise center. Laf will be a perennial all star and most see him as the best forward coming into a draft since Mathews. Byfield most likely will be a top 6 forward and perhaps a true number one center but there are certain facets about his game that simply do not guarantee this so sorry but no GM is going to trade down this year for another prospect if they have the number one pick.
 

MBH

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One can never know how a particular GM or scouting department views certain players but I would be utterly shocked to see Stevie Y trade down to take Byfield at 2 for an extra mid first draft pick. It's not that I don't like Byfield but he's just not at a level that screams guaranteed 1st line franchise center. Laf will be a perennial all star and most see him as the best forward coming into a draft since Mathews. Byfield most likely will be a top 6 forward and perhaps a true number one center but there are certain facets about his game that simply do not guarantee this so sorry but no GM is going to trade down this year for another prospect if they have the number one pick.

I'm of the mind that Lafreniere will be better quicker and the Byfield will develop more slowly, but have chance to better. And - being a center, that's hard for me to pass up.
 

Corso

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I'm of the mind that Lafreniere will be better quicker and the Byfield will develop more slowly, but have chance to better. And - being a center, that's hard for me to pass up.

If just looking at raw physical attributes I might be inclined to agree with you. Byfield still has some physical maturing to do while Laf is most likely near his peak physical development but it's not Byfield's maturity that concerns me about his game. His overall compete level is not where it should be nor is his hockey IQ. Yes he could develop into a franchise number one center as he has all the ability in the world but I would not bet on that. Laf has a much much higher chance at attaining a franchise level status and I just can't see any teams passing that chance up.
 
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nbwingsfan

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LOL.
I watched the same guy do a Byfield game.
And I saw a big fast kid just overmatching kids. I saw some heads up hockey from Byfield, too.
I wasn't unimpressed with him. But he definitely looked raw. Which is understandable for a 6'5 17-year old.

So I figured I'd watch the same guy do a Lafreniere video, the one above. I expected my impression of Lafreniere to be MUCH better than what I'd just seen.
And it wasn't.

While Lafreniere is clearly more polished than Byfield, (he should be, he's a year older and not growing into a gargantuan body), I really didn't think he was better.

I'm looking for more shift videos. But honestly, I can't say I'd take Lafreniere over Byfield if I'm Yzerman with the #1 pick.

If you’re basing that last sentence off of one game... yikes.

If Yzerman has first overall and picks anyone other than Lafreniere he should be fired on the spot. He’s on an entire other level as a prospect than anyone else in this draft.
 

SympathyForTheDevils

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It was a joke.

Bern is a beautiful city, he’ll get to start camp in August, play for 3-1/2 months, then go to NHL camp.

It's purely speculation, based on Mackenzie saying he was looking at "all playing options". That said, it's not that crazy. He won't wait until December to play somewhere. I doubt he comes back to juniors, especially if it's to play for 3 months. He can't go to the AHL. He was rumored to be looking at Switzerland last year, before deciding to come back to the Q. And Bern still has an import slot open, as far as I know.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

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He should just stay in the Q or see if the NHL changes the AHL parameters, if that league starts on time.

What incentive does any good team in Europe have to bring in a kid for 3-4 months that won't be there towards the end of their season? There's almost no chance he'd be there for a full season. If the next NHL season gets cancelled because of a second wave, it's likely that the European leagues would have the same thing happen. I'm sure Lafreniere would produce well and help the team, but it's not as if you can't find some NHL/AHL tweener to also produce well. Unlike Lafreniere, that player will stay a full season, if you are signing them. Unless you are only signing the kid for publicity reasons and to eventually call him a product of your team, there would be no reason for him to play in Europe.
 

simonedvinsson

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He should just stay in the Q or see if the NHL changes the AHL parameters, if that league starts on time.

What incentive does any good team in Europe have to bring in a kid for 3-4 months that won't be there towards the end of their season? There's almost no chance he'd be there for a full season. If the next NHL season gets cancelled because of a second wave, it's likely that the European leagues would have the same thing happen. I'm sure Lafreniere would produce well and help the team, but it's not as if you can't find some NHL/AHL tweener to also produce well. Unlike Lafreniere, that player will stay a full season, if you are signing them. Unless you are only signing the kid for publicity reasons and to eventually call him a product of your team, there would be no reason for him to play in Europe.
teams have to make money. lafreniere might not help come playoff time, but if he gets enough buzz to bring more people out to the arena, i don't see why they wouldn't be interested.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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teams have to make money. lafreniere might not help come playoff time, but if he gets enough buzz to bring more people out to the arena, i don't see why they wouldn't be interested.

How much do fans care about that stuff? I don’t know the answer, but I don’t suspect they’d be lining the gates in Switzerland, Russia, Sweden to watch a prospect.

And there’s also the COVID question. There are going to be less fans with tickets attend events, even when they are cleared to return to these venues.
 

abo9

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How much do fans care about that stuff? I don’t know the answer, but I don’t suspect they’d be lining the gates in Switzerland, Russia, Sweden to watch a prospect.

And there’s also the COVID question. There are going to be less fans with tickets attend events, even when they are cleared to return to these venues.

With all due respect to the Swiss league, that "prospect" would likely be one the best players in the league.

And yes superstars absolutely attract crowds, and fans in all sports care about that stuff. I imagine that it's also not a bad idea to create an early relationship history with such a player too, in the event of another NHL lockout in the next few years.
 
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57special

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Does anyone think that this guy has a chance to bust, assuming he stays healthy?
 

GlassesJacketShirt

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Does anyone think that this guy has a chance to bust, assuming he stays healthy?

I suppose it's possible for any player, though it depends what one means by busting. Lots of people say merely not hitting projections is busting these days.

If you mean outright failing to have a lengthy career in the NHL, then I simply can't see it. He's insanely well-rounded as a prospect and has elite level IQ and playmaking ability. Combine that with his apparent level of desire, and you've got as sure a thing since Matthews.
 
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Jabba11

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To me, the most recent draft bust is Nail Yakupov.

Laffy no matter what will have strong chances of having a better career than Yakupov. Then next, look at guys like Aaron Ekblad, RNH and Nolan Patrick. Ekblad isn't a bad player but not top player at his position. RNH never became as offensive as projected and Nolan Patrick dealt with lots of injuries but seeing Pettersson and others performed better does not justify him as 2nd overall. Not here to stirr the pot or start any debates, but will continue to follow Jack Hughes's progression. I thought he was thrown into the league too early and woudl have benefit from bulking up more and kinda similar early transition like RNH.

Laffy is strong, physically and mentally. I think he'll do well. Risk is always there but I think he's a gamer, a player that has a mentality of winning. I think he can have success.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

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With all due respect to the Swiss league, that "prospect" would likely be one the best players in the league.

And yes superstars absolutely attract crowds, and fans in all sports care about that stuff. I imagine that it's also not a bad idea to create an early relationship history with such a player too, in the event of another NHL lockout in the next few years.

Does Nigel Dawes attract a crowd in Russia? Does Ryan Lasch attract a crowd in Sweden?

Just because you or I would go watch Lafreniere play doesn’t mean the common man or woman in any of these countries that is a hockey fan would do the same thing. There are even a lot of people on this website that don’t follow prospects.

The lockout point isn’t a bad one, but it’s still unlikely to ever come into play.
 

cg98

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So theres a chance this guy and some others may play another WJC? Interesting.
 
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