Expected Goals

[NHL WAR]

How much stock do you guys put in it? Which website has the best calculation? Would you put it above Corsi, Fenwick, scoring chances, high danger corsi, etc. ?

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[fasnoosh]

I'm no expert on this, but here is a good article breaking down the expected goal for stat - The Importance of Expected Goals - Blueshirts Breakaway

Seems like it's an important stat, weighting the shot attempts for shot quality. In as random of a game as hockey is, not all shots are created equal.

 

[fasnoosh]

Conclusion paragraph from that link:

Expected goals is far from a “perfect stat,” and like any metric, should not ever be used as the end all be all for player, game or team evaluations. However, it can help us engage in more comprehensive analysis of the great sport of hockey. In my personal opinion, expected goals data serves as an excellent complement to more traditional possession and shot-related metrics, and when combined with other data and the eye test, can help us not only better understand the current level of play for both players and teams, but also help us project the sustainability of play going forward.