Expectations of a signed vanek at 4 for $32m

[yianik]

I get the comments on Vanek not signing for just 4 years, but figured asking what kind of average production you would want over 8 years was getting a bit much because I don't think most believe he will be scoring a lot in 7-8 years.

What I find interesting is that so far over 20% would need Vanek to hit over 36 goals a year on average to be good with the contract and Vaneks career highs are 40 goals. Over 50 % would need 31-35 goals ( my vote ), which would be in line with his career average, but he is now 30.

So if you need that goal scoring over 4 years, which may be pushing it realistically, then if it was an 8 year contract where there is no way Vanek should be able to get close to that , wonder how many fans will be calling it an albatross contract.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

I'd love to have this guy with us long term. Unlikely though.

To answer the question the expectation would be 30 goal scorer for me. He's hit more and I wouldn't be happy at 8 mil if he makes 25 goals. 30ish would be required.

 

[coolasprICE]

wonder how many fans will be calling it an albatross contract.

essentially the idea is even if he gets 7 years, the hope is to get top level production from him for at least 4 years. the last 2-3 years expectations drop and roles change. At the very worst, there's a buyout.

 

[habfaninvictoria]

I don't think Vanek will want to resign... he's purely a rental.... but.... clearly he also is thinking about winning a cup (not a given for some europeans). His comment about Price was very revealing. Let's look at cup contenders and their ability to absorb an 8 Million contract.

Pitts .... no chance
St Louis .... nope
Chi ..... No
Ana.... Perry and Getzlaf ate it all
LA ... Resigning Gaborik hurts them
Bos .... they've got space
SJ .... Maybe

Cusp cup contenders

Minny-- His preferred destination (apparently)... if they pay him they can't afford the supporting cast.
Philly .... to get a goalie they'd spend too much to get Vanek
Tor .... They could probably do it, but even then they're 3-4 years away.

I think his ego also craves playing in a hockey space.... he called us Mecca.

So our competition is.

Tor, Bos, Minny

I like our chances of resigning him if....

He has offensive success
The team wins at least one round
The fans embrace him like we know we will.

I think we can all agree with Vanek we're maybe one or 2 pieces away from contending. He gives us that X factor you need to win a cup. I hope he's not just a rental.

 

[Born in 1909]

Let's see if he can score a goal before talking contracts.

He may be one of these guys who loses desire for pro hockey and declines rapidly.

 

[LeHab]

Minny-- His preferred destination (apparently)... if they pay him they can't afford the supporting cast.

Danny Heatley albatross contract will be done after this season. Should be enough to sign Vanek.

 

[blarneylad]

Danny Heatley albatross contract will be done after this season. Should be enough to sign Vanek.

You mean two time fifty goal hundred point heatley? He is the product of signing a long term contract based on his prime years production. The type of "albatross" contract that vanek will have when he is producing briers like numbers at 37

The only reason these deals don't look bad yet is because they are a slightly new occurrence. The whole circumventing the cap thing is new. The players signed to those deals haven't hit the tail end of their deals.

Hossa will be such a bad contract in a few years so will many others