Expectations for the Kraken this upcoming 2022-2023 season?

[YippieKaey]

Hey guys! Caps fan here but a bit interested in the Kraken. Just thought i'd ask you guys what your expectations and hopes are for the team this year, any input is welcome

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[The Marquis]

75-90 points. I think they’ll be good but will start slow. By the end of the season we’ll all be thinking they look like a playoff team at the high end, but they’ll miss. At the low end, they’ll be plagued by injuries late season and won’t look like a playoff team.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I think 75 - 80 points is realstic.

That would be a 15 - 20 point improvement from last season and would also mean that a cople of those many question marks got answered in our favour.

 

[The Marquis]

I can’t imagine them being worse, that’s for sure. I’m thinking Columbus last year as the “they did well enough”, or Winnipeg at the high end of my expectations. Low would be Sharks season last year. Too much talent on the team to suck like they did last year.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I am going to be mildly aggressive and say we hit 85 points but miss the playoffs. Despite the additions to the team I do still have question marks:

- Gru has looked miles better in pre-season but can he keep that up?
- Can Schwartz stay relatively injury free? He already appears to have a injury though he was back to skating today.
- Bura has been underwhelming in pre-season. Can he produce like a legit top-6 forward on the Kraken?
- Beniers has been the man for us since the last 10 games of the 21-22 season. Can he keep up this pace for a full season?
- I don't expect much from Wright this season. I am borderline disappointed with the lack of offense he brings. I know he is only 18 and is already good enough to be a 3C but what I really want to see from him this season is develop more offensive instincts and skill.

If everything goes our way, we will be a bubble playoff team. Realistically, I expect us to be in the 85 point range and comfortably miss the playoffs.

 

[gstommylee]

its expected wright will take some time to adjust to NHL level on skill passing and how he times his shots.

Slaf didn't quite have as big of a pre-season either for montreal.

 

[RayMartyniukTotems]

I am going to be mildly aggressive and say we hit 85 points but miss the playoffs. Despite the additions to the team I do still have question marks:

- Gru has looked miles better in pre-season but can he keep that up?
- Can Schwartz stay relatively injury free? He already appears to have a injury though he was back to skating today.
- Bura has been underwhelming in pre-season. Can he produce like a legit top-6 forward on the Kraken?
- Beniers has been the man for us since the last 10 games of the 21-22 season. Can he keep up this pace for a full season?
- I don't expect much from Wright this season. I am borderline disappointed with the lack of offense he brings. I know he is only 18 and is already good enough to be a 3C but what I really want to see from him this season is develop more offensive instincts and skill.

If everything goes our way, we will be a bubble playoff team. Realistically, I expect us to be in the 85 point range and comfortably miss the playoffs.

Hopefully the Kraken hit the 85-90 point mark. I think the Defense outside of A Larsson holds them back

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Hopefully the Kraken hit the 85-90 point mark. I think the Defense outside of A Larsson holds them back

I don't think the defense is a 'problem' but it is far from a strength. Soucy, Oleksiak, Dunn are all good top-4 D in their own right but just not high-end ones. We just don't have even 1, let alone 2 top-pairing D-man which is what will hold us back. Outside of Dunn, I am not convinced any of them can create offense.

Also, I don't think we should have bothered signing Schultz. It's only a 2 year signing but hopefully Evans does enough to earn a spot in the top-4 D after (or during) the season and relegates Schultz to 2nd unit PP duties.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

its expected wright will take some time to adjust to NHL level on skill passing and how he times his shots.

Slaf didn't quite have as big of a pre-season either for montreal.

I am not comparing the two. I don't need any convincing that Wright is going to be elite in his own zone but what I want to see some flashes of creativity and offense from him. Which is why I think anything over 30 points this season will be more than enough to get me excited.

He is the kind of player who is celebral enough and works hard enough that he could just 'figure it out' and all of a sudden become elite on both sides. As someone who started my NHL fandom with the Sharks, Pavelski is someone I greatly admire. Below-average skating and average size did not stop him from being elite on both sides of the ice.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I am not comparing the two. I don't need any convincing that Wright is going to be elite in his own zone but what I want to see some flashes of creativity and offense from him. Which is why I think anything over 30 points this season will be more than enough to get me excited.

He is the kind of player who is celebral enough and works hard enough that he could just 'figure it out' and all of a sudden become elite on both sides. As someone who started my NHL fandom with the Sharks, Pavelski is someone I greatly admire. Below-average skating and average size did not stop him from being elite on both sides of the ice.

I think Wrght's scoring will rely on his linemates and how well they're able to finish.

Overall I don't expect too many points from him cause I think he'll need to work on a couple of things(which 18 year old doesn't?) and I'd expect a different kind of output starting next season with an NHL season under his belt and a full offseason to work on certain things.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I think Wrght's scoring will rely on his linemates and how well they're able to finish.

Overall I don't expect too many points from him cause I think he'll need to work on a couple of things(which 18 year old doesn't?) and I'd expect a different kind of output starting next season with an NHL season under his belt and a full offseason to work on certain things.

Exactly. But where do you draw a line between disappointment and being ok for this season: 20 points, 30 points? More, less?

 

[majormajor]

Exactly. But where do you draw a line between disappointment and being ok for this season: 20 points, 30 points? More, less?

Just looking at even strength production, 25 points would be a reasonable expectation for a rookie getting consistent minutes. Thirty can be hard to do all at evens. I expect him to be able to score on the PP immediately but it's hard to know how much time Hak will give him there.

 

[The Marquis]

Just looking at even strength production, 25 points would be a reasonable expectation for a rookie getting consistent minutes. Thirty can be hard to do all at evens. I expect him to be able to score on the PP immediately but it's hard to know how much time Hak will give him there.

Assuming he plays 70ish games, I’d say a disappointment for a guy like Wright would be under 20. Between 20 and 30 would be expectation, more would be “the kid has it, expect big things”. Particularly with him getting 3rd line minutes.

In short, yes. Lol

 

[kihei]

75 points. My hopes are high, but in the cold iight of day, this seems a rational guess.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Exactly. But where do you draw a line between disappointment and being ok for this season: 20 points, 30 points? More, less?

I don't have a number for that.

I just want to see progress out of him and if he stays for the whole year I want him to be more dangerous offensively in April then he is right now.

 

[Irie]

72 points and another fantastic prospect in next year's draft to really cement a great foundational core to build around for years.

I want to be optimistic about this season, but the opening night line combos have me thinking there is a disconnect between understanding players strengths and creating chemistry and identity by the coaching staff, so I am setting my expectations low and then anything close to .500 will be a very pleasant surprise for me.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I thought I'd bring this one up again.

We've played more than 1/3 of the season and the Kraken so far are 16-10-3 sitting at 3rd place(tied with Edmonton) in the pacific division.

We've experienced two long win streaks(1x 5 and 1x7) while we currently have lost five out of the last six.

On the plus side I think the team has improved offensively and on the power play, while also being able to, more ofthen than not, keep teams to the outside and help out their goaltenders.
The not so good stuff has still been goaltending(even though Jones had a fun streak and Grubauer has looked solid since coming back from the IR) and our penalty kill which has been absolutely horrendous.

So I'm curious to see how this season will keep on going, what Francis will do at the TDL and where we'll end up in the standings.

As a reminder, here are the pacific divison standings as of today.

Vegas ---> 45 points --> 32 games played
L.A. Kings ---> 37 points ---> 33 games played
Seattle ---> 35 points ---> 29 games played
Edmonton ---> 35 points --> 31 games played
Calgary ---> 32 points --> 30 games played
Vancouver ---> 29 points ---> 29 games played
San Jose ---> 25 points ---> 31 games played
Anaheim ---> 19 points ---> 31 games played

Overall I think we could finish anywhere betweend 2nd and 6th in the pacific given that I think Vegas will win the division while both San Jose and certainly Anaheim aren't in it to win games.

Realistically I think we'll finish 5th or 6th in the division given that Edmonton and Calgary are really close while the Canucks(who everyone's talking about them having to blow it up) are trailing us by six points with 53 games to go.

So what do you guys/gals think when it comes to the Kraken and where they'll finish.

 

[GrungeHockey]

I don't want Francis to make deadline moves trading away parts of the future to try to make the playoffs this year. In fact, I'd rather he traded away any pending UFAs if he doesn't have new deals for them in place.

Playoffs this year would be nice, but they aren't necessary.

 

[Scomerica]

Last few games feel like a reality check. Guessing we will be a bubble play off team assuming we can turn around this bad streak soon.

 

[gstommylee]

Last few games feel like a reality check. Guessing we will be a bubble play off team assuming we can turn around this bad streak soon.

Or its not. Every team no matter how great they are will have streaks like this... There is still a lot of hockey to play.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I don't want Francis to make deadline moves trading away parts of the future to try to make the playoffs this year. In fact, I'd rather he traded away any pending UFAs if he doesn't have new deals for them in place.

Playoffs this year would be nice, but they aren't necessary.

I fully agree.

Trading away pieces of the future makes no sense even if we'd be challenging Vegas for the top spot around the TDL.
Though, I could see him giving up a 2nd for help at either center or even defense.

BTW: If we're a "bubble team" come TDL I think Francis should still look and see what other teams would offer for Soucy etc.
Playoffs would be great, but if there's a good deal around it maybe best to take the offer and let someone like a Ryker Evans get some NHL games under his belt.

 

[Irie]

I'm not a huge fan of a second year team trading picks for short-term help, but if that were an option, I think it is important to look at a 2-3 year plan.

This team could use upgrades in a lot of places, but they have decent depth, so moving out a player along with an asset for an upgrade may not be out of the question.

In the next two years the UFA contracts will be Soucy, Donato, Eberle, and Wennberg (leaving Donskoi out of the mix because he's out and does not seem to be in the plans)

On Defense
I don't think an upgrade is currently necessary. Any player Francis targets to upgrade what the team currently has is going to cost too many futures to acquire, and it is unlikely there are many options available midseason. Moving Soucy if he won't resign before the TDL would be smart, but I think ownership is pushing hard for a playoff appearance, and I think that moving him out weakens the team, so I expect to possible lose him in free agency and have to address the hole on LD next offseason with either a short-term trade or target a UFA replacement.

At Forward
I am looking forward to seeing what Tolvanen brings on the third line and wondering if he might not be a better option for that slot than Donato going forward. Donato scores some big goals, but his defense is somewhat lacking, and playing him on the third or fourth line is not the best fit for his skillset.

Eberle has been pretty good this season. So much better than the half-ass effort he gave most of last year. That said, he will be 34 when his contact expires, so unless he would be willing to come back on a one year contract, I think he has to be replaced. Hopefully someone from the farm is ready to make the jump to start the 24-25 season.

Wennberg does a lot of little things to help the team, but he is not a great top 6 center. If Wright is not ready, this is going to be a difficult slot to fill. Options might be trading for a more expensive but slightly better upgrade from a team with cap-issues, roll the dice with Wright and hope he doesn't flounder and hurt a season that might have playoff expectations, over-pay through the nose for a UFA upgrade, or target a cheaper make shift bandaid to kick the can down the road a year or two, (similar to what Wennberg was when Francis signed him to fill a large hole.)

Unless the players they are bringing in are guys Francis thinks he will have at least 3 years of team control over, I don't think he should make any deals. While the record is pretty good this season, I think we saw that this team is far from being a contender on the last trip - it is important for everyone to remember that they are still a second year expansion team with a lot of guys likely playing above their weight class currently. It is probably best to keep that in mind for long term moves and temper current expectations.

 

[majormajor]

I'm not ruling out that this is just a speed bump and that they'll get going again soon. Playing the top East teams in succession is too much to chew on in one road trip.

I still think that if they're playing well in the second half that you should seriously consider making a medium term investment like a Chychrun acquisition. I think the Kraken have the age structure of a team that should be in win-now mode, and the outlook won't necessarily be better in five years by going for younger players. They don't have that much young talent and frankly a pivot towards youth could lead to a lot of lean years, building that way takes a very long time. But they'll have to prove that they're ready to win on the ice and be much better than they've been in recent games.

I'm not a huge fan of a second year team trading picks for short-term help, but if that were an option, I think it is important to look at a 2-3 year plan.

This team could use upgrades in a lot of places, but they have decent depth, so moving out a player along with an asset for an upgrade may not be out of the question.

In the next two years the UFA contracts will be Soucy, Donato, Eberle, and Wennberg (leaving Donskoi out of the mix because he's out and does not seem to be in the plans)

On Defense
I don't think an upgrade is currently necessary. Any player Francis targets to upgrade what the team currently has is going to cost too many futures to acquire, and it is unlikely there are many options available midseason. Moving Soucy if he won't resign before the TDL would be smart, but I think ownership is pushing hard for a playoff appearance, and I think that moving him out weakens the team, so I expect to possible lose him in free agency and have to address the hole on LD next offseason with either a short-term trade or target a UFA replacement.

At Forward
I am looking forward to seeing what Tolvanen brings on the third line and wondering if he might not be a better option for that slot than Donato going forward. Donato scores some big goals, but his defense is somewhat lacking, and playing him on the third or fourth line is not the best fit for his skillset.

Eberle has been pretty good this season. So much better than the half-ass effort he gave most of last year. That said, he will be 34 when his contact expires, so unless he would be willing to come back on a one year contract, I think he has to be replaced. Hopefully someone from the farm is ready to make the jump to start the 24-25 season.

Wennberg does a lot of little things to help the team, but he is not a great top 6 center. If Wright is not ready, this is going to be a difficult slot to fill. Options might be trading for a more expensive but slightly better upgrade from a team with cap-issues, roll the dice with Wright and hope he doesn't flounder and hurt a season that might have playoff expectations, over-pay through the nose for a UFA upgrade, or target a cheaper make shift bandaid to kick the can down the road a year or two, (similar to what Wennberg was when Francis signed him to fill a large hole.)

Unless the players they are bringing in are guys Francis thinks he will have at least 3 years of team control over, I don't think he should make any deals. While the record is pretty good this season, I think we saw that this team is far from being a contender on the last trip - it is important for everyone to remember that they are still a second year expansion team with a lot of guys likely playing above their weight class currently. It is probably best to keep that in mind for long term moves and temper current expectations.

We should also remember that they've got better depth of age 25-30 "prime" "win-now" players than perhaps any other team. It will be difficult to get better as those players age out.

On the other topic - there's a good chance that Wright can ably replace Wennberg. That's two years from now so not a huge ask. Interestingly they might play a similar off puck game with a lot of hanging back and intercepting in the neutral zone. Though obviously their instincts with the puck are polar opposites.

 

[Irie]

I still think that if they're playing well in the second half that you should seriously consider making a medium term investment like a Chychrun acquisition. I think the Kraken have the age structure of a team that should be in win-now mode, and the outlook won't necessarily be better in five years by going for younger players. They don't have that much young talent and frankly a pivot towards youth could lead to a lot of lean years, building that way takes a very long time. But they'll have to prove that they're ready to win on the ice and be much better than they've been in recent games.

With Chychrun's injury history, I don't think he would be my target. Having to rely on a guy that historically misses 25% of every season puts the team in a bad spot and having to change defensive pairs a lot due to injury hurts chemistry a fair amount imo.

Then when i look at Armstrong's ask of multiple first round picks, it is a super easy pass.

I know that you aren't suggesting giving up a ton in a deal, and are probably just using him as an example of a player that could improve the team, but I am honestly not sure there will be anyone on D that would be an upgrade and be both available and not cost the farm, unless they are on a bad contract, and then the question would be, is it worth adding a contract like that to the team going forward?

We should also remember that they've got better depth of age 25-30 "prime" "win-now" players than perhaps any other team. It will be difficult to get better as those players age out.

On the other topic - there's a good chance that Wright can ably replace Wennberg. That's two years from now so not a huge ask. Interestingly they might play a similar off puck game with a lot of hanging back and intercepting in the neutral zone. Though obviously their instincts with the puck are polar opposites.

That is an issue, and I think we have to all hope that the draft picks develop quickly and Francis hits big on couple of his guys not named Beniers and Wright.

For me, I watch this team, who's identity (and success) is built around compete and effort, and I see that they tend to struggle against teams that play a similar intensity based style. I believe from past observations that this suggests that they are going to have less success when they reach the playoffs the way they are currently coached.

Accepting that, I still feel this team is going to see playoff success through a slow build and good drafting. There might be some fun playoff chases in the next two seasons, but I do not think this team is coached well enough, has the goaltending, or has the top-end talent that a team like Vegas had that lead to their initial playoff success.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Yeah, I agree on Chychrun.

He certainly would fit what you'd want age and contract wise but the Coyotes know that as well and the ask for him will be pretty high.
The talk is something like two first rounders(one 1st round pick at least and either another 1st or 1st round talent) and then some.
Giiven the market, with all the injuries on defense, and financial problems for most teams, Arizona can ask for a lot thanks to his age, talent and contract and the fact they can take on a bad contract as well.

Also, like @majormajor has said, we don't have a deep talent pool.
So I don't think we're anywhere close to start trading away those kind of picks and/or prospects in order for "win now" moves.


Looking at building this team I'm very interested in what Francis will do here.

I've stated many times that I think he's a bit in between of what he'd like to do(tradition built through the draft) and what ownership(win, playoffs, make season ticke holders more happy) wants to be accomplished.

Hopefully the kids will develop(Beniers has so far, the rest still needs time) and he'll make good decisions with the next couple of first round picks, even though they'll probably be in the 10 - 20 range unless we regress or we somehow get lucky in the lottery.

As far as the team goes I do agree.
Even though Jones had a nice(fun) run he's back to being a back up goaltender stats wise, while Grubi has been solid since returning from injury.
Overall we've got no goalie that can steal us games like the Golden Knights had when Fleury kept them in games they then were still able to win even though they got outplayed for 50 - 55 minutes.

That alone will be a problem going forward cause you need better goaltending if you want to be good and have a shot in the playoffs.

Then of course you've got a good number of guys who probably won't be here anymore in 2 - 3 years thanks to age and, hopefully, younger guys taking their places.

Anyways, it's a fun and exciting ride and I hope our front office is able to built something that can sustain success for some years and maybe do some damage in the playoffs.

And I'm willing to wait a couple of years for it(be patient with the built) rather than going for quick fixes and some rushed success that might lead to some playoff appearances but no real shot at success during the postseason.