Since I first started on these boards a short time ago, I've read a few threads/posts discussing the biggest draft busts ever and the common answers are Patrik Stefan, Alexandre Daigle, Doug Wickenheiser, etc.
We can look back and make statements based on how their careers have turned out but what I'm wondering is that heading in those drafts, were these players expected to go #1?
For example, in 1999, did everyone expect Stefan to go #1 or was there outrage at the time with people wondering why the Thrashers wouldn't take one of the Sedins or anybody else? Same question for the Daigle and Wickenheiser drafts.
There are other years where I'm wondering if there was a consensus #1 pick heading into the draft. These are:
1994 - Jovanovski
1995 - Berard
1996 - Phillips
1997 - Thornton
1998 - Lecavalier
2000 - Dipietro
2001 - Kovalchuk
2003 - Fleury
2004 - Ovechkin (can't remember if it was 100% certain he would get picked # 1 or if it would be Malkin)
2006 - Johnson
What other years was there a surprise/shock at who was actually picked # 1 at the time?
1980 - Wickenheiser and Dave Babych were the clear-cut 1-2 picks. Wickenheiser was considered to be a big, prototypical franchise center, similar to Bobby Smith who had been picked #1 a couple years earlier. Was an absolutely dominant junior player - I didn't really understand until the highlights of a 6-goal performance in his draft year were shown on TV when he passed away a few years ago ... you could see why he was taken ahead of Savard. I don't really know what happened when he turned pro.
1993 - Daigle was generally the consensus #1 in what was considered a very strong group, with the top 6 players (Daigle, Pronger, Gratton, Kariya, Niedermayer, Kozlov) well clear of the rest of the field. Kozlov had been ranked #1 heading into the year but fell due to an inconsistent season. A few people had Pronger #1, but most would have taken Daigle in the Sens' position.
1999 - four players (Stefan, Sedins, Pavel Brendl) were clear of the field. The best option in most peoples' eyes at the time (which the Canucks managed) was to end up with both Sedins, but there were concerns about how they'd perform if separated. Brendl was the most talented but there were concerns about his work ethic. Stefan was the safest and most NHL ready, and at the time it was considered that he could step in and center a scoring line on most NHL teams. But heading into draft day, the order those 4 would be selected was a total crapshoot.
1994 - Radek Bonk was the consensus #1 for most of the year until he was passed in the spring by Jovanovski, who was rated #1 by most sources heading into the draft. However, there was still a fair bit of talk that Bonk would go #1 on draft day.
1995 - Berard and Redden were well clear of the field. Berard was probably rated #1 by a few more people, but a lot of NHL teams would have taken Redden. Petr Sykora was rated #1 by most people heading into the year but fell due to a season-ending injury at Christmas, and then plummeted to 18th on draft day.
1996 - Phillips was the class of a terrible draft group. Feeling at the time was that he probably wouldn't have been a top-3 pick in a lot of other years, but that draft was considered really awful. Alex Volchkov was rated #2 most of the year, but fell to #4 at the draft due to major (and well-founded, as it turned out) character concerns.
1997 and 1998 - Similar drafts, where Thornton and Lecavalier were the consensus #1 pick with another skill forward in Marleau and Legwand as the consensus #2. Would have been a huge shock if either guy wasn't selected #1.
2000 - Gaborik was the consensus #1 most of the year, and Heatley rose up the rankings after a strong WJC, so that there was probably a 50/50 split on who would go #1 as the season ended. Very few people seemed to have Dipietro higher than #10 or so as the playing season ended, but he had a strange post-season rise up the lists. A few people had him as a potential #1 pick when draft day rolled around, but it was a pretty big suprise to actually see him taken there.
2001 - Kovalchuk was the consensus #1, although the odd person liked Spezza more. RLR was way out on a limb that year ranking Stan Chistov #1 overall. Still, would have been a huge shock if Kovalchuk didn't go to Atlanta.
2003 - one of the more wide-open #1 picks in recent memory. Staal was probably the slight favourite to go #1, but a lot of people had Fleury as the #1 (which he ended up being) and Zherdev, Horton, and even Vanek were considered outside shots to be taken in that spot.
2004 - Ovechkin was favoured to go #1 from start to finish, although Malkin had closed the gap considerably by draft day from what it had been mid-season. Still would have been a shocker if the Caps had chosen Malkin, though.
2006 - Kessel was favoured to go #1 as the season started, but Johnson was the consensus #1 on draft day. The odd person had Toews #1, but almost everyone had Johnson pegged as the top pick.
Hope that helps.
