Speculation: Expansion Draft

[Llamamoto]

Considering that we have Nurse and Klefbom, as well as Broberg + Samorukov coming up in the future, I don't think that losing Jones will hurt that much. But yeah, much more than losing Griffin Reinhart.

On second thought, I'd prefer not to lose Jones.

I'd probably go 4 and 4, something like this:

McDavid
Draisaitl
Yamamoto
Nuge (He might not even need to be protected given that he's a UFA, although my guess is we sign him to an extension beforehand)

Nurse
Bear
Klefbom
Jones

Koskinen

 

[bone]

Too early to plan. You wait as late as possible to eliminate all the unknown factors as much as possible.

That's a good point. The thread was made 60 or so games ago. At the time it seemed obvious that Kassian , Klefbom and RNH would need protection (assuming Kass and RNH were resigned). Right now I'd definitely expose Kassian and seriously consider Klefbom with his potential career threatening situation.

Today the only guys worth protecting as forwards are McDavid, Draisaitl and Yamamoto, assuming they can work a gentlemans agreement with RNH to sign the day after expansion (or first day or free agency if he were selected). On defense, it would only be Nurse and Bear with possibly Jones. Koskinen wouldn't be a lock either today.

6 months from now if JP puts up 40 points and finds a home on a good PK, he goes on the list. If any of the AHL prospects have a breakout possibly them. Maybe six months from now Lagesson is more valuable than Jones to the team (doubtful, but possible).

The most interesting development to me is that the requirements for exposure could impact our defense exposure. Right now it's possible that we wouldn't even be allowed to protect 4 d-men as we wouldn't have a Dman with the required games to meet our defensive exposure requirement. Lagesson needs 40 games and Klefbom needs 4 more games. If neither reached that threshold, we have to expose one of Jones, Bear or Nurse (assuming Jones gets 25 games).

Now it's possible they change the games played requirement as it's doubtful we'll get 82 games, but as the current rules for expansion are laid out exposure requirements may come into play. Particularly with the injured player exposure clause where a player who has missed 60 consecutive games due to injury. Now the season may be less than 60 games, but if they adjust the 70 games played threshold, they'd certainly adjust the injury one as well to include anyone who misses the entire season.

In other words, we need Klefbom to play if we want him to be considered as an exposure option, or we have to find a way to let Lagesson play 40 games or else the lesser of Bear and Jones will need to be exposed. If Klefbom returns and we want to protect 4 D, Lagesson needs 40 games or again we need to expose one of Klefbom, Bear or Jones.

Exposure for forwards will be easy as there are plenty of guys meeting the exposure requirement (Neal, Kassian, Khaira, Turris). However, that needs to be a consideration in trade scenarios as well because you need two of those guys for exposure.

 

[jukon]

I just hope that the decision of who we protect is a difficult one. That means that we have many good players and might have to let one go. It's a good problem to have.

 

[bone]

I just hope that the decision of who we protect is a difficult one. That means that we have many good players and might have to let one go. It's a good problem to have.

And furthermore, if they'd happen to be in such a position, don't overthink it and end up losing multiple assets. We're losing one no matter what, don't pull a Tallon.

 

[SwedishFire]

With Klefbom out, I could see a trade with Klefbom.

McDavid
Draisaitl
Nuge
Yamamoto
Turris
Kassian
Haas

Nurse
Bear
Jones

Koskinen

 

[jukon]

You'd have to think that a handshake agreement would be in place with RNH. It would be silly not to do something like that. Throw him an extra 200k signing bonus to sweeten the offer.

I think the expansion draft will come down to Benson or Jones depending on who has a better season. Likely Benson since Jones already has the upper hand on being a full time NHLer. Hopefully the thought of being exposed in the expansion draft lights a little extra fire under the young men to have a great year and stay with the team.

Of course depending on Seattle's strategy they might prefer a more veteran roster and hopefully take someone like Neal or Kassian off our hands. Dare to dream.

 

[Oilhawks]

After today’s Russell extension I have more confidence in the protection list looking like the below (dependent on this year’s performance of the players in bold):

McDavid
Draisaitl
Nugent-Hopkins
Yamamoto
Puljujarvi
Turris
Benson

Nurse
Bear
Jones

Koskinen

If any of the bolded don’t deliver they could change it up (Kassian or Archibald in for Benson for example).

I didn’t put bolded for Bear or Yamamoto because even if they take a step back this year I think the org will not want to lose either since they’ve both shown a lot (even if small sample sizes).

 

[fireantz]

After today’s Russell extension I have more confidence in the protection list looking like the below (dependent on this year’s performance of the players in bold):

McDavid
Draisaitl
Nugent-Hopkins
Yamamoto
Puljujarvi
Turris
Benson

Nurse
Bear
Jones

Koskinen

If any of the bolded don’t deliver they could change it up (Kassian or Archibald in for Benson for example).

I didn’t put bolded for Bear or Yamamoto because even if they take a step back this year I think the org will not want to lose either since they’ve both shown a lot (even if small sample sizes).

I agree totally. Klefbom has to play to be protected. Benson has to be in the NHL ahead of Nygard and Ennis if he gets to be protected. Kassian has to show he’s above Puljujarvi if he is to be protected. Is Turris the 3C we’ve waited for? Only then is he protected. It’s a “show me” season for many Oilers.

 

[tabs]

Would any of our goaltending prospects warrant protection over Koskinen?

 

[MuzzaFuzza]

Would any of our goaltending prospects warrant protection over Koskinen?

Would Konovalov technically need protection? I don't know how it works with prospects playing pro in Europe, and Rodrigue is exempt. Either way I really can't imagine we would unless Koski totally shits the bed next year and is a pure cap dump come expansion. Goalie prospects that aren't elite have very little value.

 

[bone]

Would any of our goaltending prospects warrant protection over Koskinen?

Not today, but maybe after the season plays out (though I doubt it).

Practically speaking, there is certain to be better goalies available for the 3 picks Seattle has to make than our guys unless Skinner has a miracle season.

To list a few (assuming the current planned starter stays so), Aiden Hill, Rittiich, Khudobin (or Bishop if he waives), Jake Allen, MacKenzie Blackwood (or Crawford), Kinkaid (or Georgiev), Holtby (or Demko). Then there's other possible breakout players or surprises where a current incumbent starter gets overtaken by a surprise younger goalie (perhaps Florida pulls a deal like Pittsburgh did with Fleury to get out of Bobrovskis contract).

 

[bone]

Would Konovalov technically need protection? I don't know how it works with prospects playing pro in Europe, and Rodrigue is exempt. Either way I really can't imagine we would unless Koski totally shits the bed next year and is a pure cap dump come expansion. Goalie prospects that aren't elite have very little value.

Pretty sure he wouldn't. 2 years pro means 2 years playing under an NHL contract (whether they play in the NHL or not). Konovalov hasn't had an NHL contract yet.

 

[tabs]

Not today, but maybe after the season plays out (though I doubt it).

Practically speaking, there is certain to be better goalies available for the 3 picks Seattle has to make than our guys unless Skinner has a miracle season.

To list a few (assuming the current planned starter stays so), Aiden Hill, Rittiich, Khudobin (or Bishop if he waives), Jake Allen, MacKenzie Blackwood (or Crawford), Kinkaid (or Georgiev), Holtby (or Demko). Then there's other possible breakout players or surprises where a current incumbent starter gets overtaken by a surprise younger goalie (perhaps Florida pulls a deal like Pittsburgh did with Fleury to get out of Bobrovskis contract).

True, but wouldn’t Seattle also be stocking up on prospects for their depth in the AHL? I agree that they’d take another goaltender as their starter and backup but if they’re only left with Neal/Khaira/etc to choose from, maybe they choose a depth goaltender from our organization. Was just curious since I don’t know too much about our goaltending prospects. Sounds like Konovalov and Rodrigue would be exempt and from what I’ve heard they’re our top two G prospects.

 

[TheUltimateOiler]

I protect
McDavid, draisaitl, nuge, Yamamoto, McLeod, puljujarvi and acquired player(hall) or Turris.

Bouchard, bear and nurse on defense.
Unless Bouchard doesn't need to be protected then Jones.

 

[bone]

True, but wouldn’t Seattle also be stocking up on prospects for their depth in the AHL? I agree that they’d take another goaltender as their starter and backup but if they’re only left with Neal/Khaira/etc to choose from, maybe they choose a depth goaltender from our organization. Was just curious since I don’t know too much about our goaltending prospects. Sounds like Konovalov and Rodrigue would be exempt and from what I’ve heard they’re our top two G prospects.

Yeah, I could see them grabbing 4 goalies to stock their AHL team as well as set their NHL team, but I'd be surprised if Skinner or Wells would be the best of the AHL lot to warrant protection. If they are maybe you consider protecting them instead of Mikko thinking that the other ones I mentioned may be viewed as better options than Mikko at the NHL anyways.

I wouldn't say it's impossible just unlikely. It would be a good thing if Skinner or Wells showed enough that this could be a debate by year end.

 

[Soundwave]

I think Seattle will roll the dice and take Klefbom.

Oilers get 4.1 million extra in cap room and re-up Barrie or some other D.

 

[Del Preston]

McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Yamamoto, Turris, Puljujarvi, Archibald/Benson/Kassian
Nurse, Bear, Jones
Koskinen

I protect
McDavid, draisaitl, nuge, Yamamoto, McLeod, puljujarvi and acquired player(hall) or Turris.

Bouchard, bear and nurse on defense.
Unless Bouchard doesn't need to be protected then Jones.

Bouchard and McLeod will be exempt.

 

[Aerchon]

You'd have to think that a handshake agreement would be in place with RNH. It would be silly not to do something like that. Throw him an extra 200k signing bonus to sweeten the offer.

I think the expansion draft will come down to Benson or Jones depending on who has a better season. Likely Benson since Jones already has the upper hand on being a full time NHLer. Hopefully the thought of being exposed in the expansion draft lights a little extra fire under the young men to have a great year and stay with the team.

Of course depending on Seattle's strategy they might prefer a more veteran roster and hopefully take someone like Neal or Kassian off our hands. Dare to dream.

It'd be nice but Nuge is the kind of player i feel some team would throw big money and term to scoop.

If Holland can get Nuge signed for 6.5ish or less due to covid/home town/flat cap and keep his term short enough to keep cap space open for a Draisaitl extension. That would be best.

 

[Chayos]

Mcdavid, Draisatl, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, RNH-he will be extended, Benson, young forward traded for in Jones deal prior to ED, Nurse, Klefbom, Bear.

Exposed Kassian, Lagesson, Turris, Russell.

The Kraken take Kassian or Lagesson

 

[5 14 6 1]

Depends who of Pulju and Jones is more valuable at the end of the season for me on this.

McDavid
Drai
Yamamoto
Nuge

Jones
Bear
Nurse
Klefbom

Koski

or

McDavid
Drai
Yamo
Nuge
Pulju
Turris
Benson

Bear
Nurse
Klefbom/Jones (Jones here if Klefbom looks like he won't ever get better)

Koski

Exposed: Kassian, Russell, Neal

 

[ManofSteel55]

I expect Holland makes a few trades between now and then so it's hard to say.
Guarantees - McDavid, Drai, Yamamoto, Nuge (if re-signed), Nurse, Bear,
Probable - Klefbom (unless his shoulder is done maybe), Koskinen, Pulujarvi
Possible - Turris, Jones (if he breaks out. Could protect 4 defensemen), Benson (if he breaks out), Kassian
Exposed - everyone else.

 

[jukon]

I wonder how much a shortened season will affect who will be protected. GMs will have a smaller sample of work to base their final decisions off. It will be interesting to see how much playing in Europe has benefited Benson and Puljujarvi and if they will get an upper hand on a player like Jones.

 

[JBear]

Sorry for bumping an old thread but this thread is interesting and will be relevant again soon.

I'd pay Seattle something to take Neal.

 

[PaPaDee]

What would it take to get Seattle to pick Neal? Pick and prospect? If we could get outta that contract, that would be amazing.

If Seattle would take Neal if we included a 2nd/3rd and Jones, would you do it?

 

[McShogun99]

What would it take to get Seattle to pick Neal? Pick and prospect? If we could get outta that contract, that would be amazing.

If Seattle would take Neal if we included a 2nd/3rd and Jones, would you do it?

Try two 1sts and Jones. Look at all the other bad contracts that were traded and the going rate was at least a 1st and those contracts had only a year left. The longer deals were usually contracts that were going on LTIR.