Speculation: Expansion Draft

[Kelevra]

Hey everyone, was just curious on your thoughts as to how to navigate the expansion draft. It seemed like for a while it would have been easy for the oilers but with so many young guys stepping up it may not be that way.

Obviously protected:
Drai
Mcd
Kassian (if resigned)
RNH (if resigned or perhaps sign him after the ED)

Klef
Nurse
Bear

Koskinen

Would want to protect
Benson
Yamomoto
Jones
JP

Key players likely left exposed regardless
Neal
Marody
(anyone else I am missing?)

So whats your plan?

4 F and 4 D leaves JP/Benson/Yamamoto as the guy to lose
7F and 3D leaves Jones as the obvious guy to lose

Looking at this I was thinking maybe its time to go for the cup. If you trade out JP/Benson/Yamomoto for a good 2nd line winger and 3rd line centre (Hypothetically, just as an example, say those 3 plus gagne, chaisson and manning for cap reasons for Zacha and Palmeri - not saying NJ would do it, just an example) then you really have no expansion issues and we fill out the 2 holes on the team.

That would at least be my plan. Comments on my plan? What would yours be?

Click to read more...

 

[LTIR]

I would use ED to our advantage and target a team that would be struggling to protect all its key players.

 

[Kelevra]

I would use ED to our advantage and target a team that would be struggling to protect all its key players.

How would you say we are in that position? Right now we are going to lose a very good prospect with no changes

 

[FlameChampion]

Too early to say I think.

Last year Bear didn’t even look like a player. Things can change quickly in a year.

 

[McOylerz]

I think you gotta try to convince RNH to sign after the ED, problem is, we still lose Jones or Benson. This one will hurt more than the last one.

Edit: I trust Holland's evaluation of who to protect though. Nearly every team is facing the same thing.

Edit... 2: I like the idea of a quantity for quality swap, but it's difficult because no one else wants to put themselves in the same position as we are - too many players to protect.

 

[Llamamoto]

I think you gotta try to convince RNH to sign after the ED, problem is, we still lose Jones or Benson. This one will hurt more than the last one.

Edit: I trust Holland's evaluation of who to protect though. Nearly every team is facing the same thing.

Considering that we have Nurse and Klefbom, as well as Broberg + Samorukov coming up in the future, I don't think that losing Jones will hurt that much. But yeah, much more than losing Griffin Reinhart.

 

[SwedishFire]

Edmonton had the most less loss of any teams in the expansion draft. Today you find Griffin Reinhart in China. I think Ther eis players to protect for sure like McDavid, Draisaitl.

I will be considerly sure that Holland wants to keep Nuge, but you never know, will he age good?
Kassian is money right now, but how is it for coming years, when he going close to 32?
Im sure JP will be traded, but that not for much, another prospect probably. He looses his value more and more for any day that passes.

My suggestion is to hand over Neal to Seattle, who wont get faster, in some kind of deal.

My list of what I belive:

Protected
McDavid
Draisaitl
Nuge
Yamamoto
--------------------- If you go for 4 +4 wich I actually prefer. If you go for 7 + 3, then add:
Benson
Haas
Nygård


D
Klefbom
Nurse
Bear
(Jones)

 

[LTIR]

How would you say we are in that position? Right now we are going to lose a very good prospect with no changes

Because we can add 5 more forwards who can be protected if protecting 3 D.

RNH and Larsson can be signed after the draft as pending UFAs

Drai, McD, Nurse, Klefbom, Bear.

Losing a Kassian, Khaira, Benson or Jones is nothing!!

Holland ideally gives up a 2nd and make Seattle take Neal.

 

[LTIR]

How would you say we are in that position? Right now we are going to lose a very good prospect with no changes

Losing a prospect is nothing compared to other teams that may be forced to lose a core player.

 

[Gordian Knot]

I don’t know, maybe make some kind of deal that they take a winger. Good teams are built on quality defenders and wouldn’t like to have Seattle strengthened with our young defenders. Rather keep our D-core untouched even if that means giving more assets than just one free player.

 

[Mez]

Imagine if Holland forgot to protect McDrai

 

[Sanchez]

Imagine if Holland forgot to protect McDrai

Or had to protect Lucic because of his garbage contract? That's Calgary's problem now

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

This thread is about a year early. Expansion draft isn't until June of 2021. Trying to project this far out is likely at best 70% accurate. Even putting a list together a year from now would probably only be 85% right.

Before Lucic was traded it was assumed that contract was unmovable and the Oilers would be forced to protect him. Things change in ways you wouldn't expect. McDavid and Draisaitl are the only names you can write in with a pen.

 

[bone]

This thread is about a year early. Expansion draft isn't until June of 2021. Trying to project this far out is likely at best 70% accurate. Even putting a list together a year from now would probably only be 85% right.

Before Lucic was traded it was assumed that contract was unmovable and the Oilers would be forced to protect him. Things change in ways you wouldn't expect. McDavid and Draisaitl are the only names you can write in with a pen.

Precisely this. Anyone panicing right now is doing so way too early.

At the end of the day the worst thing to have coming into expansion is NMCs as they don't necessarily allow you to pick your preferred 9 or 11 players depending on which way you go. Fortunately, Edmonton currently has no such players and only will if they hand out an ill-advised NMC this summer.

By this time next year, our top 7 forwards and top 4 defense could look substantially different than it does today so let it play out and make sure not to get trapped into something this summer that impacts your flexibility as to how you run the draft next year.

As of today, it's likely only an issue if a couple prospects make a significant jump in the next year, so don't do something drastic out of fear that they do. If they do, then plot a strategy to keep the ones you want to keep.

And remember you can only lose one player to expansion as does every other team in the NHL, don't overthink it and end up losing two or three good players trying to save Alex Petrovic (who's leading the AHL in points from a defenseman).

 

[voxel]

7F/3D

Jones, Bear, Lagesson require waivers next season. I suggest we trade one after camp next season (or earlier) for a young forward that doesn't need waivers.

I suspect only one of Benson, Yams, Marody will be a regular next season and losing the others won't matter.

 

[nabob]

So now that the draft is done and free agency is winding down I am looking to turn my attention to the expansion draft a bit. Can anyone answer a few questions for me?

- when is it
- what are the options for the number of players to protect
- how many games over the last two years does a player have to of played in the NHL
- Can we sign or trade for a player before the draft and have them as one of the available players allowing us to protect a player like Jones instead.

 

[fireantz]

I believe if the roster remains unchanged we protect 3 d-men. Unlikely they protect damaged goods (Klefbom). Barrie,Larssen and Russell will be UFA’s and with prospects coming unlikely more than one will be resigned. A handshake agreement on the chosen one will allow them to protect Nurse, Bear and Jones. Klefbom and Lagesson cover all the requirements Doubt either get picked

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Because we can add 5 more forwards who can be protected if protecting 3 D.

RNH and Larsson can be signed after the draft as pending UFAs

Drai, McD, Nurse, Klefbom, Bear.

Losing a Kassian, Khaira, Benson or Jones is nothing!!

Holland ideally gives up a 2nd and make Seattle take Neal.

What 2nd?

2022?

 

[nabob]

What 2nd?

2022?

Old thread. We had one before he made that post lol.

 

[alphahelix]

Losing Yamamoto or Jones would be brutal. I have a feeling Jones is going to break out this year and be an obvious steal for Seattle. I’m not sure how to escape this situation anymore. All GM’s when asked in advance say “its too early to ask these questions, you can’t make your decisions based on an upcoming expansion draft”. I’m of the opinion that they’re wrong. If everybody else is going to be shortsighted about it, you have a great opportunity to set yourself up to preserve roster value at the least, if not explicitly take advantage of the situation to improve.

Value of picks and young players with automatic protection Is going to be up substantially by the trade deadline. Multi-year flat cap will exacerbate this. Probably very few moves will occur and Seattle will clean up.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Losing Yamamoto or Jones would be brutal. I have a feeling Jones is going to break out this year and be an obvious steal for Seattle. I’m not sure how to escape this situation anymore. All GM’s when asked in advance say “its too early to ask these questions, you can’t make your decisions based on an upcoming expansion draft”. I’m of the opinion that they’re wrong. If everybody else is going to be shortsighted about it, you have a great opportunity to set yourself up to preserve roster value at the least, if not explicitly take advantage of the situation to improve.

Value of picks and young players with automatic protection Is going to be up substantially by the trade deadline. Multi-year flat cap will exacerbate this. Probably very few moves will occur and Seattle will clean up.

There's no chance he goes exposed.

 

[Hynh]

Losing Yamamoto or Jones would be brutal. I have a feeling Jones is going to break out this year and be an obvious steal for Seattle. I’m not sure how to escape this situation anymore. All GM’s when asked in advance say “its too early to ask these questions, you can’t make your decisions based on an upcoming expansion draft”. I’m of the opinion that they’re wrong. If everybody else is going to be shortsighted about it, you have a great opportunity to set yourself up to preserve roster value at the least, if not explicitly take advantage of the situation to improve.

Value of picks and young players with automatic protection Is going to be up substantially by the trade deadline. Multi-year flat cap will exacerbate this. Probably very few moves will occur and Seattle will clean up.

Would you rather lose Jones or Puljujarvi? That's the question IMO. I'm assuming RNH is signed before the expansion draft.

1. McDavid
2. Draisaitl
3. Yamamoto
4. RNH
5. Klefbom
6. Nurse
7. Bear
8. Jones

or

1. McDavid
2. Draisaitl
3. Yamamoto
4. RNH
5. Puljujarvi
6. Forward 1
7. Forward 2

1. Klefbom
2. Nurse
3. Bear

There is the dream option where you trade them Neal in exchange for leaving Klefbom exposed which only works if Jones and Bouchard replace his minutes and Klefbom comes back healthy enough.

 

[nafrelio]

Could there not be a handshake agreement with RNH so we don't have to protect him and he just signs here after the expansion draft? Why sign him now if we have to protect him, assuming he wants to be here...?

 

[nabob]

Would you rather lose Jones or Puljujarvi? That's the question IMO. I'm assuming RNH is signed before the expansion draft.

1. McDavid
2. Draisaitl
3. Yamamoto
4. RNH
5. Klefbom
6. Nurse
7. Bear
8. Jones

or

1. McDavid
2. Draisaitl
3. Yamamoto
4. RNH
5. Puljujarvi
6. Forward 1
7. Forward 2

1. Klefbom
2. Nurse
3. Bear

There is the dream option where you trade them Neal in exchange for leaving Klefbom exposed which only works if Jones and Bouchard replace his minutes and Klefbom comes back healthy enough.

Neither. They arent taking Klefbom with his injury issues. Holland will grab a Dman to leave exposed or make a deal with them to not take Jones.

 

[Tyrolean]

Too early to plan. You wait as late as possible to eliminate all the unknown factors as much as possible.