Speculation: Expansion draft - who are you protecting?

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Hockey Crazy

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Dec 30, 2008
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I hope they take Holl. Then if we trade Reilly they could have up to 10 mil to shop for a rhd and goalie.

Sandin. Brodie
Muzzin. ______
Dermott. Liljigren
 
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ottomaddox

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Oct 31, 2017
10,592
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Toronto
So have you changed your mind about who might get exposed?


I'm thinking Holl might be exposed. We know without a shadow of a doubt that Holl without Muzzin is a really bad look. As TOR's #4D he doesn't quite cut it, and is playing above his true calling: 5/6 defenseman.


I just think that Kerfoot is not going to be exposed. Just because Seattle might be in the Market for forwards doesn't mean TOR are going to make it easy for them.

TOR have a desparity in their salary allocations. Kerfoot is one of the few "middle class" salaries. I didn't care for him in his first year, but I think he is earning his salary (not overpaid).

If Dubas has any say, he'll likely keep Kerfoot. To move an important player like Kadri, and then expose Kerfoot to expansion 2 seasons later?


Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
Kerfoot
Brodie
Muzzin
Rielly

Campbell

In no way am I saying that Kerfoot rules, but to expose him after moving Kadri?

I do like Holl as well, but I also know his limitations. He is more of a 5/6 D-man.
 
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darrylsittler27

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Oct 21, 2002
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Heres the expansion draft calculator.

Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Dependent on what happens at the deadline, I think im protecting 4F-4D instead of 7F-3D in the expansion draft. Holl is 100% gone if we only protect 3D (Mo, Muzz, Brodie)

Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Nylander

Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
Holl

Campbell

There has to be some shenanigans done to meet the exposure requirements as well. If Kerfoot or Engvall gets claimed, I wont be that upset. What happens with Hyman plays a role here too.
Lol, no one would grab Tavares, you wish. Starting next year he is 60 pt 22 million slow 2 c.
 
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Griffin76

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May 17, 2014
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Nova Scotia
I went 7-3-1 first. Then I changed to 4-4-1. But I'm changing back to 7-3-1.

Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Nylander
Kerfoot
Hyman
Simmonds

Rielly
Brodie
Dermott

Campbell

Sign Hyman (if it's a reasonable contract) before the draft and more importantly before free agency.

Gives us Engvall, Spezza, Muzzin, Holl and Hutchinson to expose. Spezza won't be claimed because he'll retire. Can't see them wanting to take on Muzzin's contract because it could be risky. That leaves Holl or Engvall.
 
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hockeywiz542

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May 26, 2008
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2021-22 Maple Leafs depth chart: Why the Leafs gave Travis Dermott 2 years — and what comes next - The Athletic

There was some commentary among Leafs Nation on Thursday that the deal was overpriced. Based on comparables I looked at earlier this summer, I was expecting Dermott to come in around $1.3 million on a one-year deal.

CapFriendly has a good list of comparable players and the deals they signed. What stands out immediately is that Dermott has played more games than almost all of them, something that could be a factor in an arbitration case.

This is the first time Dermott was eligible for arbitration, which is a big reason he was able to negotiate a lot more than he did last summer, when he took a bargain-basement deal for less than $875,000. That just wasn’t going to happen again.

If Dermott would have elected for arbitration, the Leafs could have asked for a two-year award, and I suspect it would have ultimately come in slightly under the $1.5 million number. But arbitration always comes with uncertainty. And sometimes it comes with hurt feelings.

The other factor here is the Leafs have to submit their protected list for the expansion draft next weekend (July 17). As part of that, they need to expose at least one eligible defenceman, and before the Dermott signing, the only way they could have accomplished that was by exposing Justin Holl.

A reading of the tea leaves indicates that the Leafs will protect four defencemen in the expansion draft, which is set for July 21. My guess is they’ll protect Holl because he played a much bigger role than Dermott last season, which would leave the Kraken’s decision down to basically Alexander Kerfoot or Dermott.

Dermott didn’t play a whole lot under Kraken coach Dave Hakstol, who ran the defence for the Leafs as an assistant the last two years. The GM and front office ultimately make the selection, but I have to imagine the coach has some input, especially when it comes to players he’s familiar with.

It really comes down to whether Seattle feels Dermott has the potential to be a top-four D at some point.


The Leafs still do — or at least a very versatile No. 5. That’s part of why they were comfortable giving him the two-year deal with a raise despite the fact he played just 13 minutes a game and produced six points last season.

Even if he doesn’t play in the top four, however, he’s making the salary of a fifth or sixth defenceman. He can play left and right D, which the Leafs need, given Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin are almost exclusively on the left side.
 

Pyrophorus

Registered User
Jun 1, 2009
26,197
2,905
Eastern GTA
Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares

Muzzin
Brodie
Rielly
Holl

Campbell

Any forward not protected is available for a trade
Rielly and Holl are also available, but Holl less so.
 

banks

Only got 5/16
Aug 29, 2019
3,353
4,832
Protect 7-3-1

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Hyman, Kerfoot, whoever

Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin

Campbell

Let Seattle pick between Holl and Dermott. The forwards are pretty thin if they lose Kerfoot, who was good in the playoffs. And I don't think you can easily replace him with a UFA.
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
86,912
11,862
Leafs Home Board
Protect 7-3-1

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Hyman, Kerfoot, whoever

Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin

Campbell

Let Seattle pick between Holl and Dermott. The forwards are pretty thin if they lose Kerfoot, who was good in the playoffs. And I don't think you can easily replace him with a UFA.

Losing Kerfoot allows you to re-sign Hyman. Hyman is a UFA so you don't need to protect him.

However you make a good point in that Leafs consider themselves Cup contenders and don't even have 7 forwards to protect, only the core 4 and Kerfoot, and he might be the one they lose.

That speaks volumes as to how shallow the Leafs team is at forward depth because of the cost of the core 4.
 
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VanW27

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Jun 9, 2003
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Canada
So have you changed your mind about who might get exposed?


I'm thinking Holl might be exposed. We know without a shadow of a doubt that Holl without Muzzin is a really bad look. As TOR's #4D he doesn't quite cut it, and is playing above his true calling: 5/6 defenseman.


I just think that Kerfoot is not going to be exposed. Just because Seattle might be in the Market for forwards doesn't mean TOR are going to make it easy for them.

TOR have a desparity in their salary allocations. Kerfoot is one of the few "middle class" salaries. I didn't care for him in his first year, but I think he is earning his salary (not overpaid).

If Dubas has any say, he'll likely keep Kerfoot. To move an important player like Kadri, and then expose Kerfoot to expansion 2 seasons later?


Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
Kerfoot
Brodie
Muzzin
Rielly

Campbell

In no way am I saying that Kerfoot rules, but to expose him after moving Kadri?

I do like Holl as well, but I also know his limitations. He is more of a 5/6 D-man.
I think it makes sense, I'd say Holl and Dermott have similar value so if you are going to expose 1, you might as well expose both since you still only lose 1.

If that is the route we are taking Dubas really should be working the phones hard to acquire a forward before the expansion draft since we only have 5 forwards under contract worth protecting, 6 if Hyman resigns. Should be some good deals available out there from teams not wanting to lose guys for nothing.
 

KuleminFan41

Registered User
Jan 5, 2009
5,845
614
Losing Kerfoot's salary seems like the best thing for the team.

Honestly none of the guys likely to be lost are difference makers. At the end of the day, the impact will be minimal. Speaks to the lack of depth on this team.
Kerfoot does have 9 points in 12 playoff games with the Leafs with 6 coming this past season. He had more points than 6 forwards on the team combined.
 
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Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Leafs Home Board
I think it makes sense, I'd say Holl and Dermott have similar value so if you are going to expose 1, you might as well expose both since you still only lose 1.

If that is the route we are taking Dubas really should be working the phones hard to acquire a forward before the expansion draft since we only have 5 forwards under contract worth protecting, 6 if Hyman resigns. Should be some good deals available out there from teams not wanting to lose guys for nothing.

You're not wrong here but what do the Leafs have as currency as they only have 3 picks for 2021 and 3 from 2022 draft remaining at present, only 6 picks over the next 2 upcoming drafts?. Leafs already with the least draft picks of all 31 other teams.

Does the other team no good to give them another player they need to expose and not protect. So that option is out.

So then current prospects the most likely option as trade bait to acquire a NHL forward, as that would benefit both teams.
 
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VanW27

Registered User
Jun 9, 2003
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Canada
You're not wrong here but what do the Leafs have as currency as they only have 3 picks for 2021 and 3 from 2022 draft remaining at present, only 6 picks over the next 2 upcoming drafts?. Leafs already with the least draft picks of all 31 other teams.

Does the other team no good to give them another player they need to expose and not protect.So that option is out.

So then current prospects the most likely option as trade bait to acquire a NHL forward, as that would benefit both teams.
I'd move Sandin for a young forward that needs protected - but I'm not really a Sandin fan.

Exempt top D prospect with some NHL experience - should be valuable for a team maneuvering pre-expansion draft.
 

banks

Only got 5/16
Aug 29, 2019
3,353
4,832
Losing Kerfoot allows you to re-sign Hyman. Hyman is a UFA so you don't need to protect him.

However you make a good point in that Leafs consider themselves Cup contenders and don't even have 7 forwards to protect, only the core 4 and Kerfoot, and he might be the one they lose.

That speaks volumes as to how shallow the Leafs team is at forward depth because of the cost of the core 4.

You can protect a pending UFA, like Hyman. And he could extend before the expansion list is required.

Ya, the forward group is now very thin. The blue line is no longer the Leafs' problem. Our scoring dries up in the post season. Can't let Kerfoot go, in my opinion.
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
86,912
11,862
Leafs Home Board
Kerfoot does have 9 points in 12 playoff games with the Leafs with 6 coming this past season. He had more points than 6 forwards on the team combined.

How far have the Leafs fallen in the circle of life with each passing season?

We use to have a 30 goal capable 3rd line centre in Kadri on a team friendly deal of $4.5 mil.

Then we traded him for Kerfoot and Barrie, and let Barrie walk away as UFA where he lead the league Dmen in scoring this year with 8-40-48 points making $3.75 mil AAV.

Now the Leafs are exposing Kerfoot to expansion and risk losing him for nothing as well, and deciding whom to protect between dmen Holl and Dermott instead.

If the Leafs still had Kadri would there be any reasonable expectation he would be the one exposed to expansion?
 
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Jeypic

Registered User
Sep 12, 2015
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How far have the Leafs fallen in the circle of life with each passing season?

We use to have a 30 goal capable 3rd line centre in Kadri on a team friendly deal of $4.5 mil.

Then we traded him for Kerfoot and Barrie, and let Barrie walk away as UFA where he lead the league Dmen in scoring this year with 8-40-48 points making $3.75 mil AAV.

Now the Leafs are exposing Kerfoot to expansion and risk losing him for nothing as well, and deciding whom to protect between dmen Holl and Dermott instead.

If the Leafs still had Kadri would there be any reasonable expectation he would be the one exposed to expansion?
I don’t think Kadri got suspended until rd 2 this year so we might have protected him...
 
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