Speculation: Expansion draft - who are you protecting?

[Menzinger]

Unless Seattle then offers 10 million more over the span of the contract. He might change his mind.

Then they can have him

 

[seanlinden]

Dermott can be convinced to extend before the draft for the purpose of being exposed. Why would he agree to do that? If taken he has a chance to move up into the top 4, something he's not likely to do with the Leafs anytime soon. As much as Dermott might love it in Toronto, few players are going to dismiss an opportunity for an expanded role (and bigger payday down the road).

Also, it gives Travis some leverage on the contract. He can probably get a bit more than he would have otherwise, dollars and perhaps term. Noodles was talking on Overdrive about the very same thing when he was signed to be exposed. Not every player would agree to it but Dubas would likely try.

He doesn't need to be "convinced to extend"... he would simply need to have his qualifying offer ($875k of whatever it is) tendered before the expansion draft...

Basically, you have to be prepared to keep the guy if Seattle doesn't take him.

 

[seanlinden]

Unless Seattle then offers 10 million more over the span of the contract. He might change his mind.

Players generally know roughly what is available to them going into UFA without actually hitting it. If there are teams that are going to give him $5m or $6m AAV; then he can go there.

It's not like Seattle is just out there to screw over Toronto by grossly overpaying Hyman. They're out there to build a team. Guys like Iafallo, Laughton, knew that Seattle was coming...and signed very reasonable deals to remain with their current teams.

As others have mentioned, either Hyman wants to stay in Toronto, and he/the Leafs will come to an agreement well in advance of the ED that puts the Leafs in the best possible position to build around him; or he wants to cash in... in which case the Leafs will have to look elsewhere to replace him.

 

[cannucky]

Lol Hyman isn't going anywhere unless he is forced to in a trade , this is the team he dreamed of playing for his whole life and as hard as that is for some to grasp the last thing he cares about is the paycheck . Search who his father is and what the families net worth is , I can assure you he isn't in it for the money , he probably generates more from his best selling childrens books than he makes playing hockey not to mention the dozens of side businesses he's partnered into .

 

[Menzinger]

The amount of "handshake" agreements of teams with soon to be ufas is going to be huge. I doubt the Leafs will be in any sort of unique situation with Hyman.

He will resign probably the day after expansion

 

[tokyoite]

campbell

 

[hockeywiz542]

Canadian Expansion Draft Primer 2.0 for the Seattle Kraken - TSN.ca

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Protection Scheme: 8/1

Forwards (4)

Mitch Marner
Auston Matthews
William Nylander
John Tavares (NMC)

Defence (4)

T.J. Brodie
Justin Holl
Jake Muzzin
Morgan Rielly

Goaltender (1)

Jack Campbell

Potentially Exposed Players

F Pierre Engvall
F Nick Foligno
F Zach Hyman (UFA)
F Alex Kerfoot
D Zach Bogosian (UFA)
D Travis Dermott
G Frederik Andersen (UFA)
G David Rittich (UFA)

Talking Points

- The Maple Leafs enter the Expansion Draft window with the expectation that defenceman Dermott is the likely Kraken target.

- Toronto could well become the only Canadian club to use the eight-skater, one-goaltender protection scheme.

What To Watch For

- How will Toronto’s quest to keep Hyman factor into the Expansion Draft? They plan to do everything in their power to prevent Hyman from hitting the market, but re-signing him before July 21 would likely force the Leafs to change to the 7/3/1 scheme, also exposing one of defencemen Brodie, Muzzin or Holl.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Nick Foligno is a UFA as well

 

[Stephen]

Nick Foligno is a UFA as well

Given what CBJ is up to, I wonder if Foligno decides to stick around in Toronto for a year or two or if he's back to CBJ, or off to find a forever home.

 

[Griffin76]

Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Nylander

Rielly
Brodie
Muzzin
Dermott

Campbell

 

[ToneDog]

Given what CBJ is up to, I wonder if Foligno decides to stick around in Toronto for a year or two or if he's back to CBJ, or off to find a forever home.

Gonna be tough to find the money for 11 and 71 but if it can be done, I'd sign him to a team friendly deal. Kerfoot and Andy all but gone unless Dubas also moves a larger contract.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

Sign Dermott. Expose Morgan Reilly.

 

[The Iceman]

Reilly will be a BEAST in the playoffs...BOOK IT

 

[cupcrazyman]

Gonna be tough to find the money for 11 and 71 but if it can be done, I'd sign him to a team friendly deal. Kerfoot and Andy all but gone unless Dubas also moves a larger contract.

14 UFAs next year which includes roster, taxi squad & LTR players.

 

[Keon1963]

I wonder if the Kraken might take Kerfoot over Dermott. Kerfoot is over-paid but a Top 9 forward is better value than a third pairing defenseman. Dermott's ceiling may have dropped a bit.

 

[tokyoite]

Dermott and Hyman arent going anywhere, my guess is the leafs will reach a deal with seattle not to pick both. Reilly, Foligno and Kerfoot likely gone. Muzzin will stay.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Asking our captain to do that isn't a good look and there's no guarantee that he wouldn't be taken so I don't see this happening.

Remember what happened with Sundin, Fletcher and the media?

Dubas and Shanny probably do. No way they even float the question to JT or anyone else.

 

[seanlinden]

Given what CBJ is up to, I wonder if Foligno decides to stick around in Toronto for a year or two or if he's back to CBJ, or off to find a forever home.

He'll probably go back to Columbus and make that "his forever home".

He's actually in a tough spot though, as he'll turn 34 in October, has just under 1000 games under his belt, and is well into the decline that players of his ilk experience in their 30s.

The Jackets will welcome him back on a multi-year deal; but it's unlikely they'll be contending for a cup anytime soon. I suspect it'll be the kind of situation where there's a bunch of non-contending teams willing to give him ~$4m on a 2-3 year deal; and contending teams thinking more along the lines of $2.5m x 2 years.

 

[seanlinden]

I wonder if the Kraken might take Kerfoot over Dermott. Kerfoot is over-paid but a Top 9 forward is better value than a third pairing defenseman. Dermott's ceiling may have dropped a bit.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised.

Most teams will protect 7F and 3D. There are very (if any?) teams who's 8th best forward is better than Alex Kerfoot. When you factor in UFAs and exempt players, Seattle is going to be looking at the 9th or 10th best forward on teams in a lot of cases. On the flip side, Travis Dermott is probably comparable to the vast majority of teams 4th or 5th best defencemen.

Ultimately, it will probably come down to a few factors that we as fans don't have enough info to make a fully formed opinion on.
1. Do Francis & co. like Travis Dermott? do they believe he's a #4 guy today with the potential beyond that like we saw a few year ago, that's been been blocked because of fit? or do they believe that he's a #4/5 guy, and that's all he will ever be?

2. What do other teams have available? and is Kerfoot a guy that you view as an immediate cog in your top 9? If not, then I think you certainly take Dermott, and then flip him elsewhere as he'd be a valuable trade commodity.

 

[slozo]

I wonder if the Kraken might take Kerfoot over Dermott. Kerfoot is over-paid but a Top 9 forward is better value than a third pairing defenseman. Dermott's ceiling may have dropped a bit.

I agree. I think if I were Seattle, I would take Kerfoot over Dermott.

And an expansion team won't have to worry about price tag really, they never have those 10 million dollar players on their roster, so a guy who can actually play top 6-ish is way more valuable. Lots of other teams will have more dependable 3rd pairing d-men exposed as well.

 

[Menzinger]

Dermott and Hyman arent going anywhere, my guess is the leafs will reach a deal with seattle not to pick both. Reilly, Foligno and Kerfoot likely gone. Muzzin will stay.

There's a couple strong draws for them to take Kerfoot over Dermott or whomever else the Leafs have exposed.

1) they'll have a ton of D men from other teams to choose from 2) there will be few centres available 3) Kerfoots underlying stats are always good and the Kraken have their own stats department in their front office

 

[cupcrazyman]

Dermott and Hyman arent going anywhere, my guess is the leafs will reach a deal with seattle not to pick both. Reilly, Foligno and Kerfoot likely gone. Muzzin will stay.

Seattle can only pick one play from each team not two, for the expansion draft.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I still think Kerfoot is gone but I would not be surprised if the Leafs expose Holl over Dermott. I think the fact that Dermott can capably play both sides, and can move the puck very well, makes him a more valuable piece than a guy like Holl who really just looks like a product of Muzzin. Holl still has a place on this team and I hope he is not taken over Kerfoot, but if he is taken then I think we can replace him with Sandin, Dermott, Liljegren, a re-signed Bogosian, and maybe another UFA or two.

Dermott has more upside and I think he can be just as effective as Holl right now if he was given the minutes and opportunity.

 

[meefer]

I expect Holl to be dangled before Dermott.

 

[TheGreatOne11]

I still think Kerfoot is gone but I would not be surprised if the Leafs expose Holl over Dermott. I think the fact that Dermott can capably play both sides, and can move the puck very well, makes him a more valuable piece than a guy like Holl who really just looks like a product of Muzzin. Holl still has a place on this team and I hope he is not taken over Kerfoot, but if he is taken then I think we can replace him with Sandin, Dermott, Liljegren, a re-signed Bogosian, and maybe another UFA or two.

Dermott has more upside and I think he can be just as effective as Holl right now if he was given the minutes and opportunity.

I hope Kerfoot stays, fine with Holl leaving.

But I'm sure they see this as well, its Dermott, Holl, Kerfoot or Engvall.