HF Habs: Expansion Draft 2021

[Habs Halifax]

You can make a deal to make sure it is a player you want by trading additional players.

But if you really want to make sure you don't lose Juulsen or Lehkonen, you have to protect them. By the way, I protect Lehkonen in every scenario possible, and will take chances with higher salaried players who are not producing to their cap hit.

And I would only risk Juulsen if Weber and Petry were still studly, Fleury or Brook was ready to be the 3RD...... AND Mete were better than Juulsen. But if all that happens, the loss would be minimal anyway.

I think we are tracking for another re-set in 2021 to be honest.
- Gallagher, Petry, Tatar, Danault as pending UFA's
- Kotkaniemi needs a new contract
- Weber turns 36 the following season and his contract is designed for him to retire at age 36 or 37.
- Bergevin's contract is done after the 20/21 season.

* I''m a huge Weber fan but I'm not sure about him at age 36 and 37. Protecting him for 2 more years when he is 35+ over either Mete, Juulsen or Fleury might not be a smart move.
* We get to try to win in the next 2.5 years and then we see what we have at the end of the 20/21 season.
* We get to see how good our young core is (Domi, Drouin, Lehkonen, Armia, Mete, Juulsen, Fleury, Evans, Lindgren)
* We also get to see how good our prospects are (Romanov, Poehling, Brook, Suzuki, Primeau, Ylonen, Ikonen, etc)

Maybe we are smart (or lucky) and we have another off year in 20/21. Imagine what we can get for Weber, Petry, Gallagher, Danault, Tatar as pending UFA's at the 21 deadline?

 

[BaseballCoach]

I know what you said and I disagree with it. It is a big deal... way more of a bigger deal than the Vegas draft cause we have more to lose. When I say more to lose, you will reply with "we will only lose one player". Yeah, it could be a Lehkonen or Juulsen type vs a Emelin type. And you think it's no big deal. Come on man. I'm not buying this narrative.

I choose to be proactive vs reactive and waiting till it might be too late.

If (remember what if means before you reply), Poehling has to be protected, it's more complicated than your 3 line player exposure than Tatar, Danault or Armia. What about the D? I'm assuming you are protecting 3 D so one of Mete or Juulsen will be exposed. Or are you not protecting Weber?

Assuming Poehling and Suzuki, Brook and Romanov all remain among our top desired players, we will lose ONE of our 10th forward, our 6th defenceman or our backup goalie. And if we get an additional stud in the next draft or two, push the lost player even lower.

 

[Habs Halifax]

NO, NO, NO!!

I would protect Lehkonen in all scenarios unless his salary jumps enormously. And I would not risk Juulsen unless the loss were small because we have our pair of 47 minute RDs still on top of their game AND we have one of Brook or Fleury ready AND Mete were better than him. If all that happens, then losing Juulsen won't hurt us. If all that does not happen, I protect him.

You never have to lose a player you want to protect!

I like Lehkonen too. He does a lot out there that don't show up on the score sheet and I think our fan base don't give him credit where it's due. He's on my protection list as well.

As far as Mete, Juulsen, and Fleury. Well, maybe we protect all 3 and Weber and Petry are traded prior too.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I think we are tracking for another re-set in 2021 to be honest.
- Gallagher, Petry, Tatar, Danault ass pending UFA's
- Kotkaniemi needs a new contract
- Weber turns 36 the following season and his contract is designed for him to retire at age 36 or 37.
- Bergevin's contract is done after the 20/21 season.

* I''m a huge Weber fan but I'm not sure about him at age 36 and 37. Protecting him for 2 more years when he is 35+ over either Mete, Juulsen or Fleury might not be a smart move.
* We get to try to win in the next 2.5 years and then we see what we have at the end of the 20/21 season.
* We get to see how good our young core is (Domi, Drouin, Lehkonen, Armia, Mete, Juulsen, Fleury, Evans, Lindgren)
* We also get to see how good our prospects are (Romanov, Poehling, Brook, Suzuki, Primeau, Ylonen, Ikonen, etc)

Maybe we are smart (or lucky) and we have another off year in 20/21. Imagine what we can get for Weber, Petry, Gallagher, Danault, Tatar as pending UFA's at the 21 deadline?

If we are re-setting in 2021, then definitely do not protect Weber, and decide on Petry during that final year before decision day. Would probably move Tatar and Byron, maybe Shaw too.

No worries protecting the young guys.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If we are re-setting in 2021, then definitely do not protect Weber, and decide on Petry during that final year before decision day. Would probably move Tatar and Byron, maybe Shaw too.

No worries protecting the young guys.

I guess it depends on how the 20/21 season goes and what we do in between that. As it stands right now, I'm not liking the 21 off season to do list.

 

[Sorinth]

The best protection you present to me today didn't work out for the BJ and Ducks. Pretty sure they would love to have Theodore and Karlsson back on their teams and I bet you they tried to send picks to get Vegas to take someone else and.... failed.

The best protection is what Yzerman did. Flip Drouin for Sergachev

The Blue Jackets are a terrible example because they actually traded a 1st round pick to get Vegas to select Karlsson. Karlsson was the guy they didn't think highly of and didn't care if they lost. It's just terrible player evaluation by them. As for the Ducks I doubt Theodore changes much for them since they still have a great group of defencemen.

You mention Tampa but it wasn't flipping Drouin for Sergachev that prevented them from losing a good player it was trading a 2nd, a 4th and a prospect to Vegas to get them to select Garrison.

Why don't we mention Pittsburgh, they lost a good player but it didn't hurt them because they already had a good replacement.
Or do like Winnipeg and make a trade to have them select a not so good player.
Or do like Washinton or Nashville and lose a good player but because you're such a good team still go on to be good team.

So like I said the best protection is having a bunch of good players so that you can still be good after losing someone and if necessary making a deal so that you lose the guy you want to lose because you have a replacement.

 

[BaseballCoach]

As for the Ducks I doubt Theodore changes much for them since they still have a great group of defencemen.

Bob Murray hopes you're right. Doesn't look that good now. I'd take Theodore over Fowler!

 

[calder candidate]

Best thing would that Primeau able to make Price expendable. Than you can trade him Price is from BC, is wife is from Washington state. I’m sure he would be willing to waive is NMC to go to Seattle. That way you don’t have to lose anybody that you din’t Want to.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The Blue Jackets are a terrible example because they actually traded a 1st round pick to get Vegas to select Karlsson. Karlsson was the guy they didn't think highly of and didn't care if they lost. It's just terrible player evaluation by them. As for the Ducks I doubt Theodore changes much for them since they still have a great group of defencemen.

You mention Tampa but it wasn't flipping Drouin for Sergachev that prevented them from losing a good player it was trading a 2nd, a 4th and a prospect to Vegas to get them to select Garrison.

Why don't we mention Pittsburgh, they lost a good player but it didn't hurt them because they already had a good replacement.
Or do like Winnipeg and make a trade to have them select a not so good player.
Or do like Washinton or Nashville and lose a good player but because you're such a good team still go on to be good team.

So like I said the best protection is having a bunch of good players so that you can still be good after losing someone and if necessary making a deal so that you lose the guy you want to lose because you have a replacement.

I understand what you are saying but we will see how it unfolds in 21. I'm not on the "I'm not worried about it" bandwagon. That's all I will say. I don't like how the off season of 21 is shaping up but it could change as time moves forward.

 

[Sorinth]

I understand what you are saying but we will see how it unfolds in 21. I'm not on the "I'm not worried about it" bandwagon. That's all I will say. I don't like how the off season of 21 is shaping up but it could change as time moves forward.

Well Bergevin's still in charge so there's always reason to be worried

 

[Sorinth]

Bob Murray hopes you're right. Doesn't look that good now. I'd take Theodore over Fowler!

Maybe, though I suspect Theodore wouldn't look so good if he was still in Anaheim since there problems go beyond talent.

 

[xNogaitx]

what about expansion protection if we sign Poehling this year tho

Both Schuldt and Poehling would be exempt from the Seattle draft.

So, at the upcoming expansion draft we would probably protect the following:

Forwards:
Kotkaniemi
Gallagher
Drouin
Domi
Danault
Armia
Lehkonen

(Tatar's contract being a UFA in that year, wouldn't matter).
That leaves guys like Byron and Shaw exposed upfront (both will be into their 30s).

No need of protection:
Poehling
Suzuki
Ylonen
McShane/Teasdale/Fonstad/etc.

Defense:

Weber
Mete
Juulsen

(Petry's contract would be the same as that of Tatar, so no protection)
That leaves guys like Fleury, Kulak, Olofsson, etc. exposed on the back end.

So realistically Montreal will lose a Cale Fleury or Byron to the expansion draft (nothing of significance at that point).

This furthermore reinforces the need to build through the draft, and the addition of guys like Romanov, Brook Fleury, Ylonen, Suzuki, Poehling, Primeau, Schuldt, Ikonen, etc. Even if only half of these guys make it, this team could do some serious damages simply based on its overall depth at low costs for the next 5-6 years.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Both Schuldt and Poehling would be exempt from the Seattle draft.

So, at the upcoming expansion draft we would probably protect the following:

Forwards:
Kotkaniemi
Gallagher
Drouin
Domi
Danault
Armia
Lehkonen

(Tatar's contract being a UFA in that year, wouldn't matter).
That leaves guys like Byron and Shaw exposed upfront (both will be into their 30s).

No need of protection:
Poehling
Suzuki
Ylonen
McShane/Teasdale/Fonstad/etc.

Shaw is scoring at a top-6 clip this year, actually top-4/5. If he remains at that level, he will probably be protected, only turning 30 two months after the expansion draft.

 

[26Mats]

Both Schuldt and Poehling would be exempt from the Seattle draft.

So, at the upcoming expansion draft we would probably protect the following:

Forwards:
Kotkaniemi
Gallagher
Drouin
Domi
Danault
Armia
Lehkonen

(Tatar's contract being a UFA in that year, wouldn't matter).
That leaves guys like Byron and Shaw exposed upfront (both will be into their 30s).

No need of protection:
Poehling
Suzuki
Ylonen
McShane/Teasdale/Fonstad/etc.

Defense:

Weber
Mete
Juulsen

(Petry's contract would be the same as that of Tatar, so no protection)
That leaves guys like Fleury, Kulak, Olofsson, etc. exposed on the back end.

So realistically Montreal will lose a Cale Fleury or Byron to the expansion draft (nothing of significance at that point).

This furthermore reinforces the need to build through the draft, and the addition of guys like Romanov, Brook Fleury, Ylonen, Suzuki, Poehling, Primeau, Schuldt, Ikonen, etc. Even if only half of these guys make it, this team could do some serious damages simply based on its overall depth at low costs for the next 5-6 years.

I expect to lose a pretty good player next expansion draft - Lehkonen or Byron. or Shaw.

We were really lucky last time to only lose Beaulieu for a 3rd and even more lucky they took Emelin's 4 million cap hit off our books. Although Bergevin didn't really do much with his friend Cap Space.

 

[Habs]

Why on earth would Leks be protected? Let him go.

 

[xNogaitx]

Based on youth I protected Lehks.

Shaw at 30 with a few more injuries will be bed ridden. Byron at the back end of his contract at age 32 ish would be expandable. (already is, should have traded him at the TDL rather than give him an extension.)

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Lehks is much more easily replaced than Shaw or Byron IMO.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

We are going to lose a decent player for sure, teams with strong depth compared to teams centered around of few elite players are in a disadvantageous position with how the expansion draft rules are laid out.

 

[ottawa]

Lehks is much more easily replaced than Shaw or Byron IMO.

Byron, I agree. Shaw? no.

Shaw is having a career year, let's not allow that to mask the face he's a dime a dozen player (one that happens to be overpaid on most years)

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Byron, I agree. Shaw? no.

Shaw is having a career year, let's not allow that to mask the face he's a dime a dozen player (one that happens to be overpaid on most years)

Is he a PPG player? No. But he’s not just some 4th liner like many claim. He’s a valuable piece that any cup contender would love to have. Lehkonen is a dime a dozen player.

 

[ottawa]

What "if" Weber does not slow down and we extend Petry in the summer of 20. It's not much ado about nothing anymore is it?

I don't know about you, but I rather lose another Emelin type asset vs Lehkonen or Juulsen.

Webers cap hit is crippling, maybe not right now, but it will be. I don't think he'll get selected by Seattle for that reason alone...they'll be looking to build their team based on speed similarly to Las Vegas. Nothing about Weber screams speed.

7F: Domi, Drouin, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Gallagher, Danault, Tatar
3D: Mete, Juulsen, Signed Petry (otherwise Weber)
1G: Price

Lose Byron/Lehkonen/Shaw/Armia/Weber

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

We are going to lose a decent player for sure, teams with strong depth compared to teams centered around of few elite players are in a disadvantageous position with how the expansion draft rules are laid out.

Very true. Look at the leafs. They aren’t gonna lose anyone.

 

[ottawa]

Is he a PPG player? No. But he’s not just some 4th liner like many claim. He’s a valuable piece that any cup contender would love to have. Lehkonen is a dime a dozen player.

No one claimed he's a 4th liner...he's a 3rd liner and what contender do you think would 'love' to have him and be able to fit him into their lineup at his cap hit.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

No one claimed he's a 4th liner...he's a 3rd liner and what contender do you think would 'love' to have him and be able to fit him into their lineup at his cap hit.

How many contenders can simply add salary at this point? Silly question. But he’d play a role on any team in the league.

 

[ottawa]

Very true. Look at the leafs. They aren’t gonna lose anyone.

Not sure I agree with that...they have 8 good forwards right now

Tavares, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Kapanen, Johnson, Brown