Excellent New Goalie Stat (Save Percentage Above League Average)

[Bear of Bad News]

In the first case, I would calculate a z-score of 0.54 (the goaltender has performed about a half-standard deviation better than average). A league-average goaltender will stop three out of three shots about once in every 3.4 times.

(Note - if you calculate this value empirically, you'll see that it actually happens about 75% of the time - that's because the normal distribution doesn't approximate the binomial distribution very well when n=3. Also, I'd want to use a z-score corresponding to 2.5 out of 3 - or greater - since the normal distribution is a continuous one.)

 

[bam09]

Just wanted to say great work on this, I've spent an hour going through your site and it's fascinating! Thanks for doing this.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Thanks - I appreciate it!

It's a labor of love - the goal (pun intended) to try to advance the understanding of goaltending a bit (my next large project is to further refine my predictive model to the point where it's accurate enough to include on the site without me being embarrassed).