OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 6

[Xspyrit]

I think the pandemic must serve as an eye opener and forever alter our preparedness moving forward. We must have our own capacity to manufacture vaccines and the government will have to invest into that industry, and make it a crown level corporation. They have all kinds of money, as we have seen. Trudeau will have to ensure that we will be more prepared, but there were opportunities in the past after SARS and H1N1, to take pandemic preparation more seriously. They were not.

I did a fist pump in my car as I heard Ottawa's numbers. I hope we can continue to get the numbers trending low and active cases and hospitalization going in the right direction. Heard someone on CFRA yesterday saying that Ottawa, as a 1M pop city, is one of the best cities in the world at the moment when it comes to COVID numbers, if not the best in developed countries

Should be awarded a Cup automatically

Seriously, not surprising, Ottawa must have a more disciplined population than let's say Montreal.

 

[foggyvisor]

Telling you guys a vaccine before next Christmas is a pipe dream

And so ends the reign of Trudeau's Liberals.

 

[Micklebot]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-vaccine-briefing-logistical-challenges-1.5817577

Arianne Reza, an assistant deputy minister at Public Services and Procurement Canada, said she expects vaccines will be available in the "first quarter of 2021."
She said Canada has so far finalized purchasing agreements with five different pharmaceutical companies — AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Medicago, Pfizer and Moderna — while agreements with Johnson & Johnson and Novavax are being finalized now.

If all goes well, and if U.S. pharmaceutical giants are able to meet delivery timelines, Njoo said as many as six million doses could be deployed in the first three months of 2021. Each patient will need two doses of Pfizer's vaccine.

So 6 mil means 3 mil high risk people if 2 doses are needed by end of Mar. Thats not that bad, a little uner 10% of the population focused on the vulnerable.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Well it’s been the mantra of the Liberals and NDP to demonize big Pharma so unless you want to nationalize a Pharma company we aren’t getting large scale operations here. As an aside, there is some manufacturing of vaccines in Canada but they can’t shut down and start producing COVID vaccine since the drugs they currently manufacture are also critical.

I get where you're coming from....but this isn't political (at least not in a partisan sense). Like our new poster Beech says above...we always vote for the politician who promises to cut taxes or gives us the most goodies. And let's be honest...we all want a lot but no one wants to pay for it! We also have to compete with the USA when it comes to being attractive for big businesses to set up shop here (not to mention $1 a day cheap labor in China and India). That puts us in a horrible spot.

But I definitely agree. We need a few manufacturing and development Crown Corporations in the mix here. Not just for vaccines, but for anything essential. Medical supplies, energy (green and fossil), water (looking at you, Nestle!), food distribution (not the farms, they can stay private, but warehousing and distributing - thinking rail here). Hard to be a sovereign country when we can't even build a toaster on home soil these days.

And that will cost tax dollars. And WE as voters better be damned well prepared to open our wallets a bit to make it happen.

 

[maclean]

Real question.
Why are people so afraid to talk about animal exploitation here and it’s connection with covid(and sars, mers, swine flu, bird flu etc)?

If not, then why is not mentioned anywhere in the “everything covid” thread?

Exploitation is pervasive to human civilisation at all levels, even without singling out capitalism. All forms of exploitation have negative consequences. The fact is that forms of high-exploitation animal-product production have been developed because they are able to feed more people, i.e. people have decided that the increased efficiency of it is worth the risks it produces (among them higher levels of infection/the antibiotic content it entails), not to mention how good it is for their bottom line. If the whole world were to suddenly switch to a plant-based diet (which I hope you realise is quite unrealistic), we would certainly face other unforeseen problems, be they stemming from monoculture, GMOs, etc.

To make an analogy, I could say that the problem here is actually the drive for profits and that we could solve it all by becoming a communist society. But we have seen very well that that has its own quite severe pitfalls.

Reducing any problem to a single issue is always going to be a problem in a complex world.

 

[maclean]

And my "amateur Doctor" guess is; we will discover a genetic reason for that.

Bruh. No, no we will not.

Canada is a very sparsely populated country, a good amount of people live in detached houses, a good amount of people have their own outdoor spaces and yards, and there's even a large portion of people who can't even see their closest neighbour.

Scandinavian countries have comparable factors in their favour.

Is discipline a part of it? To be sure. Is genetics? Lord help me. Canada doesn't even have a typical "genetics".

 

[Xspyrit]

I have become nearly obsessed with this virus. I read as much as I can and review data extensively. Virtually no nation has done better than Canada (At least nations who we trust, you must forgive me, I trust the UAE about as far as I can throw it). If you take the roughly 50 "first world nations", Canada is near the top. England has tested at nearly 2 times our tests/million and their numbers are all, percentage wise, higher. As is pretty much the bulk of Europe. Only some Scandinavian nations seem to have this thing in check. And my "amateur Doctor" guess is; we will discover a genetic reason for that. Ditto for Japan and S. Korea. Australia , NZ are islands and can be isolated much easier. There state of existence has been partially "isolative" since their births as nations.

Believe me, I am feeling your pain and understand your need to move as close to a 100% lock-down with extreme measures as possible. But we cannot. And even if we do, the virus will return since Canada is not in a bubble. Added measures will improve things. Our behavior will improve things. But sadly, we're pushing up against a limit. We must endure the next 4-5 months at around 5000-7000 tested cases (so anywhere from 10000-35000 true cases a day) until the vaccine is available and distributed. Added measures will reduce these numbers by small increments and not significant ones.

Keep your loved ones safe for the next 5 months, possibly 6. We may be at our limits in controlling this. And this may be of little consultation, I do not believe that it will escalate beyond the 5000-7000. Europe has shown us that small adjustments generally lead to rapid drop off (less Poland and Romania who are on a suicide path).

Well, it's basically impossible to ignore the situation.

Every country situation is unique. I have also read a boatload on it and if you look at Africa for example, they haven't suffered as much because of their way of living (climate really helps when you live "outside") and the population is much younger in general.

Personally I haven't been anywhere close to a 100% lockdown. Kids went to school everytime it was possible (it's the risk we take). I am not somebody who has a job but I still went on with some projects and did go out everytime I had to. I go to the post office 2-3 times a week. Costco every 2 weeks. Went to the barbershop yesterday. We're not people that go in bars or that kind of gathering, but would go to the restaurant regularly though so I did go when it was possible.

I don't trust strangers with their hygiene in general so for me social distancing is really not hard to do. How many times have I seen people using the public bathroom then not washing their hands? lol so disgusting. I haven't done any BBQ at my house this summer, would usually host a few ones. We focused on outdoor activities, so many parks around where I live. We just did mask and social distancing in public and since the very beginning. I'm not someone waiting for the governement to tell me what to do, I do what I have to and I did my part to help out not spreading the virus. It was never really more complicated than that. I am not sure what I have said in my post that made you thought I had been in "100% lock-down with extreme measures as possible" but anyway I am someone who went through and witnessed a lot of tragedies. I can't even count how many funerals I have attended in my life. Going to another one tonight. So I'm not going to do anything that could possibly make a family having to go through a tragedy. For me, it's just common sense and natural caring.

I think some people might diminish the role the population plays. Heck, I just talked to my father and he told me that he went to several bikers social events this year. A lot of people in confined spaces, no mask. I'm like "yeah not surprised France has been struggling that much". He also told me that people who have tested positive but still go out get a big fine and face criminal charges. Anyway, what a freaking mess.

 

[coladin]

Serious question about vaccine distribution....how would you do it?

LTC homes and healthcare workers first, that's easy. Then what?

I would do school age children SK-6 first. Then Grades 7-12. Then the rest of us. Thoughts?

 

[Xspyrit]

Serious question about vaccine distribution....how would you do it?

LTC homes and healthcare workers first, that's easy. Then what?

I would do school age children SK-6 first. Then Grades 7-12. Then the rest of us. Thoughts?

Front line workers (medical staff, police/firemen/etc, school/daycare staff)
"older" people, don't know what age you want to set up (70 and +?)
Every person with medical problems (Diabetes, respiratory, heart conditions, etc)

(EDIT sigh : NOT obviously but hopefully)

Hopefully, enough with the first batch to cover all the people above.

Other essential workers, I don't know, like people working in a pharmacy, grocery, etc
Then small business staff? People using public transport?

 

[SPF6ty9]

Serious question about vaccine distribution....how would you do it?

LTC homes and healthcare workers first, that's easy. Then what?

I would do school age children SK-6 first. Then Grades 7-12. Then the rest of us. Thoughts?

Probably older age groups and those with at risk conditions prioritized in between those two groups in my opinion.

Like others have said, curious about the speed of distribution in Canada but it sounds like next year this time I likely won't be vaccinated (I would be the last priority group anyways).

Not to get too political, but that's the one downfall with regular elections. There is incentive to have funding plans on short term items that get public exposure, with less consideration of forward thinking because that will be deemed unpopular in the voting community. Just keeping tabs on how reactionary the US has been in terms of public health funding, bumping it up after every SARS / Ebola crisis and then a slow downtrend until the next event. Wish we could somehow find a way to balance the election checks on gov. with more long term beneficial planning for the country.

 

[pzeeman]

Front line workers (medical staff, police/firemen/etc, school/daycare staff)
"older" people, don't know what age you want to set up (70 and +?)
Every person with medical problems (Diabetes, respiratory, heart conditions, etc)

Obviously, enough with the first batch to cover all the people above.

Other essential workers, I don't know, like people working in a pharmacy, grocery, etc
Then small business staff? People using public transport?

Lottery by birth date, assuming there's an equal distribution of them. Then a wristband
Like the end of Contagion. Everything else in that move has tracked to reality so far.

 

[Knave]

1,855 cases but we did have a huge jump in testing - we were hovering around mid to low 40,000 but managed 58,000. I wonder if this is the rapid tests being brought online and being used.

 

[Micklebot]

Serious question about vaccine distribution....how would you do it?

LTC homes and healthcare workers first, that's easy. Then what?

I would do school age children SK-6 first. Then Grades 7-12. Then the rest of us. Thoughts?

Idk. Do you prioritize those most likely to have complications or those most likely to spread it?

I kind of feel 7-12 would probably be more likely to spread it than K-6, as older kids have larger social groups and likely go out to public places like the mall more.

What demographics have the highest rate of infection? That might be a place to start. Where is contact tracing showing transmission typically is occuring?

 

[coladin]

Idk. Do you prioritize those most likely to have complications or those most likely to spread it?

I kind of feel 7-12 would probably be more likely to spread it than K-6, as older kids have larger social groups and likely go out to public places like the mall more.

What demographics have the highest rate of infection? That might be a place to start. Where is contact tracing showing transmission typically is occuring?

I agree actually, I think Grades 7-12 would be a good idea. This would make them visiting grandparents safer as well

 

[Sens]

1,855 cases but we did have a huge jump in testing - we were hovering around mid to low 40,000 but managed 58,000. I wonder if this is the rapid tests being brought online and being used.

People are flocking to stores for sales
The majority don’t care

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Serious question about vaccine distribution....how would you do it?

LTC homes and healthcare workers first, that's easy. Then what?

I would do school age children SK-6 first. Then Grades 7-12. Then the rest of us. Thoughts?

Roadmap for this should be underway. Some thoughts on it here https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...19-vaccines.pdf?Status=Temp&sfvrsn=bf227443_2 when in limited supply which I think is the context.

Stage 1 very limited
Healthcare workers at risk
Older adults defined by age based specific risk.
Stage 2 limited
Older adults not covered in stage 1..

Top the lists in the 2 scenarios presented where cases are prevalent

Scenario where no cases are prevalent things are different but Health care workers at risk are still a priority.
Priority shifts from older adults to those with exposure risks due to essential travel

 

[JD1]

Long term care residents and workers
Health care workers at large
First responders
70+
Health compromised
People working in public facing positions like grocery stores, shopping centers. They have to work and they are more vulnerable
60s
School kids - right thru university
Everybody else....with the work from home crowd last (and don't bitch at me, I'm one of them)

 

[Rand0m]

Long term care residents and workers
Health care workers at large
First responders
70+
Health compromised
People working in public facing positions like grocery stores, shopping centers. They have to work and they are more vulnerable
60s
School kids - right thru university
Everybody else....with the work from home crowd last (and don't bitch at me, I'm one of them)

I think ideally this is what it would be like. What I think might also end up happening is that some companies will end up buying up vaccines for their employees. I know my company would be likely to do this. They already offer the flu shot at most of our offices. It's an American company with a decent international presence, they'd definitely have the pull and resources to get all their employees vaccinated. Hopefully that becomes more common and it may relieve the burden of federal distribution.

 

[JD1]

I think ideally this is what it would be like. What I think might also end up happening is that some companies will end up buying up vaccines for their employees. I know my company would be likely to do this. They already offer the flu shot at most of our offices. It's an American company with a decent international presence, they'd definitely have the pull and resources to get all their employees vaccinated. Hopefully that becomes more common and it may relieve the burden of federal distribution.

There's no way i can see that. Certainly not in Canada. Monied employers are simply not going to buy their way to the front of the line. First off, it is governments that are buying the vaccines for public use. If on the off chance that a private company was actually able to buy the vaccine, their order would get serviced wherever in the queue it lands and it certainly couldn't queue jump in front of already existing government orders. Then you have the issue of needing a national registry of the vaccinated. All government needs to do is simply not recognize private vaccinations in the publicly built and maintained register. Where does that leave the privately vaccinated? Safe but unable to travel because international travel is likely going to require proof of vaccination, most likely thru some sort of vaccinated verified passport

 

[BankStreetParade]

I'm not actually sure I would put health care workers top of the list. The amount of PPE they wear makes them significantly less likely to contract it. If you vaccinate all the people at-risk because of health, underlying conditions or age you're going to see a significant drop in overall hospitalizations which means the health care workers won't be exposed to it anywhere close to the frequency they are now.

My list:
1. At-risk because of health, pre-existing conditions or age
2. This ties into 1 but people in LTC

------------- (end of tier 1 priority) as soon as vaccines available for distribution

3. First responders including firefighters, police officers, EMTs, emergency room staff
4. Teachers, educators and school staff (keeping schools open has been crucial to ensuring that people can still work)
5. Health care workers (feels like putting them here makes more sense to me)

------------- (end of tier 2) second wave of vaccine deliveries

6. General population

------------- Mid-to-late 2021 vaccines

The overall caveat is I don't know what the specific number breakdown is by category but it feels like a pretty good estimate.

 

[mat_sens]

The key populations were identified by NACI (i believe the list is from early November). Not necessarily in order but for your info:

COVID-19: Preliminary guidance on key populations for early immunization - Canada.ca

 

[GCK]

Long term care residents and workers
Health care workers at large
First responders
70+
Health compromised
People working in public facing positions like grocery stores, shopping centers. They have to work and they are more vulnerable
60s
School kids - right thru university
Everybody else....with the work from home crowd last (and don't bitch at me, I'm one of them)

I would put children last as none of the vaccines have been tested on children. Granted the vaccines haven’t been tested on the elderly with underlying health issues but the level of risk to those two demographics from not vaccinating are polar opposites.

 

[Stylizer1]

 

[thinkwild]

There's no way i can see that. Certainly not in Canada. Monied employers are simply not going to buy their way to the front of the line. First off, it is governments that are buying the vaccines for public use. If on the off chance that a private company was actually able to buy the vaccine, their order would get serviced wherever in the queue it lands and it certainly couldn't queue jump in front of already existing government orders. Then you have the issue of needing a national registry of the vaccinated. All government needs to do is simply not recognize private vaccinations in the publicly built and maintained register. Where does that leave the privately vaccinated? Safe but unable to travel because international travel is likely going to require proof of vaccination, most likely thru some sort of vaccinated verified passport

a national registry of the vaccinated.

For some reason, reading that made me react uncertainly, maybe thinking of gun registries. Hadnt really been thinking of it, but i guess we would have to. I guess they could even tie a QR code to your phone that could be scanned as a passport to go watch a Sens game again? Seems like a great idea teetering atop a slippery slope.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

a national registry of the vaccinated.

For some reason, reading that made me react uncertainly, maybe thinking of gun registries. Hadnt really been thinking of it, but i guess we would have to. I guess they could even tie a QR code to your phone that could be scanned as a passport to go watch a Sens game again? Seems like a great idea teetering atop a slippery slope.

Hopefully it won't take as long to get up and running as the gun registry.