OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 5

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Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
53,145
30,366
I think what they're telling people is to only get tested when you have cause for concern, symptoms or not

The question, or rather the change is what constitutes a valid cause for concern. They were asking for as many people as possible to get tested when they were missing their targets, so if you had a sick family member might as well get tested because maybe you are the asymptomatic person that gave it to them. If you wanted to visit a LTC facility, get tested first. But back then capacity wasn't an issue.

I'm glad they are talking about doing an online booking, that seems like something that should have been set up a long time ago. Long lines now is fine but come winter it will get really rough.
 

Sens

Registered User
Jan 7, 2016
6,086
2,550
Uptick in cases I can’t imagine restaurants and gyms being allowed to remain open to much longer

death blow to those industries
 

maclean

Registered User
Jan 4, 2014
8,380
2,546
Stupid question: aren't the asymptomatic people exactly those we want to test? People with symptoms (or presumed symptoms) should avoid going out and spreading the virus further, and if they are sick they should go to the hospital, not a testing centre. It's asymptomatic people who should get tested so that they self-isolate if they test positive.

I don't understand telling asymptomatic people not to get tested. I understand we lack the capacity to test everyone, but then the first people who we should NOT test is people with symptoms, as we have a fairly good idea what the test will say, and we know what they need to do.

I knew a number of people in the summer who had corresponding symptoms but got tested and it was not COVID, so from that perspective we do not necessarily know what the test will say. An even more bizarre case was a friend's son who was sitting next to a girl who got it at school, got put in quarantine, developed symptoms, but then his test actually turned out negative ... ?

Currently the way the system works here (Czech Republic) is if you are traced you are put in 10-day quarantine with a test only at the end of that period, or sooner if you develop symptoms, the logic being that it takes time for enough of the virus to build up in your body for the test to be able to pick it up. But also the system here is kind of a mess. After being champs in the spring, the reopened borders were a large part of what's put us as one of the fastest-growing covidnations. That said, I know a few people with it and everyone's had a relatively mild run. There's certainly a question over the significance of that or whether it's just a matter of time before hospitalisations catch up.
 
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Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
34,829
9,252
I think we're going to see a big spike this weekend. At least in testing, if not cases.

The last three days my lungs have been feeling like garbage. No way I have the virus, my bubble is pretty secure. It's the damned fires...that air we're breathing now is going to trigger anyone like myself with COPD or severe asthma.
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
53,145
30,366
Its not a disease, its a virus.
Covid19 is the disease caused by the sars-cov-2 virus.

Admittedly it makes more sense that the virus would take a vacation rather than the disease as a disease is a condition so its a bit more metaphorical to suggest it take a vacation.
 

BankStreetParade

Registered User
Jan 22, 2013
6,685
4,118
Ottawa
How are we closer to a vaccine at this point than we are to super-rapid, efficient, accurate testing?

I went to get tested 10 days ago because I had a cough but wasn't sure if it was just an allergy thing or not and the doctor administering the test said there's a 30% false negative rate. Thirty f***ing percent! And that's after waiting in line for almost 2 hours. What's the point?
 

harrisb

Registered User
Oct 6, 2009
2,217
952
The fact that we haven't got testing figured out before the second wave starts is pathetic.
I'm not convinced this is a second wave. The areas being hit hard right now are just geographically different than the original places. I view this as spread otherwise we would seeing huge spikes in the areas previous hit hard. Until all regions experience their spike I cannot see this tailing off. If you look at the numbers the areas originally hit hard (NY and NJ come to mind) are not getting a second spike in cases, it worked it's way through the population.

I would be interested in seeing real data of areas that had substantial initial spikes where a second one is occurring.
 

dumbdick

Galactic Defender
May 31, 2008
11,292
3,700
I'm not convinced this is a second wave. The areas being hit hard right now are just geographically different than the original places. I view this as spread otherwise we would seeing huge spikes in the areas previous hit hard. Until all regions experience their spike I cannot see this tailing off. If you look at the numbers the areas originally hit hard (NY and NJ come to mind) are not getting a second spike in cases, it worked it's way through the population.

I would be interested in seeing real data of areas that had substantial initial spikes where a second one is occurring.
I want to see the population immunity rates in NY and NJ. Perhaps they vastly misjudged the necessary immunity rate to get a herd immunity effect? That figure seems like it would depend on the spread rate, the immunity rate and the mitigation by things like masks and distancing.
 

RealSpartan

Registered User
Nov 2, 2016
133
137
Why are the numbers going up now that the summer is over?
People are generally not (as) scared anymore coupled with the fact that the younger demographics aren't as compliant with health measures like distancing, masking, etc. when they interact with each other.
 

Rand0m

Registered User
Oct 2, 2011
1,272
987
How are we closer to a vaccine at this point than we are to super-rapid, efficient, accurate testing?

I went to get tested 10 days ago because I had a cough but wasn't sure if it was just an allergy thing or not and the doctor administering the test said there's a 30% false negative rate. Thirty f***ing percent! And that's after waiting in line for almost 2 hours. What's the point?

I agree on the testing part. I think rapid (<30mins) testing should have been a bigger priority than the vaccine IMO. I'm not nearly educated enough to know what the potential challenges could be but I really d0n't think it should be harder than creating a vaccine. With rapid testing, it becomes so much easier and efficient to trace and isolate cases. With cheap and accurate rapid tests, you don't even really need to rush a vaccine.
 

Benttheknee

Registered User
Jun 18, 2005
3,153
325
Ottawa
Wear a mask, take Vitamin D and hope for the best. I have been hearing that people that contract Covid while wearing a mask have reduced symptoms. A lower inoculum. Think of it as a super crude form of vaccine. A vaccine is basically like getting a super weak version of the disease (or it used to be anyways), so it has some logic to it.

Anyways, that is what I am doing.
 

thinkwild

Veni Vidi Toga
Jul 29, 2003
10,815
1,468
Ottawa
Interesting hearing the head of the American CDC say that in fact masks may help him more than a vaccine. Its possible that a vaccine would only be available to him next year and would only be 70% effective. But wearing a mask and physical distancing gives you better than 70% effectiveness! That’s a hard one to get to sink in. It will take a while for a herd ‘mentality’ and vaccines likely wont be 100% effective. Masks might be around longer than we expected.
 

YouGotAStuGoing

Registered User
Mar 26, 2010
19,339
4,913
Ottawa, Ontario
Why are the numbers going up now that the summer is over?
Some are bored and "over it." Some are reading or hearing misinformation and rebelling against what they're told by science to be the safest measures available. And some are not erring on the side of caution, rationalizing that it's a risk they're comfortable taking while ignoring the fact that it's not personal risk but community risk.

There may be environmental factors at play here, but IMO the #1 reason why the numbers are going up is selfishness.
 
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Mingus Dew

Microphone Assassin
Oct 7, 2013
5,576
4,127
I made an appointment in Alexandria. It was worth the drive, in and out.

I just got back from a drive through test. Booked it online, drove fifteen minutes and had my results back in under an hour (negative). Completely free with no insurance required.

Florida has really gotten it's act together since the Summer madness.
 
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