Everything COVID19 - PART 4

[Laphroaig]

If there's a large spike in cases I'll be blaming those who refuse to wear masks, whether in the protests, the grocery stores or the White House.

 

[Larionov]

Ontario recorded its lowest number of cases today (243) since late March, despite over 15,000 tests being done. That's a positive test rate of barely over 1.5%, very low given that the testing is still targeted to higher risk people and places. Hospitalizations also continue to drop - down to 603 now from over 1000 a month ago. The drop over the last week has been particularly pronounced. Death rate has been dropping in Ontario as well.

Next door in Quebec, numbers are dropping like a stone - they recorded just under 200 new cases today with single digit deaths. Given where they were just a few weeks ago, this is great progress.

There are probably a number of explanations for the improving picture - the virus might be weakening, there may be more immunity among the public than previously thought, and doctors are getting better at treating it when cases land in the hospital. They have had to learn on the fly, but these are brilliant professionals and they are now figuring out which treatments work best and when. (Remember the uproar over available ventilators? Never mind - as it turns out, ventilators are rarely the right treatment. In some cases, they are finding that sleep apnea machines work better.)

COVID-19 is a tough customer, but it is not magic - it is a virus, and every virus has a pattern and a lifespan. My guess is that within a month or so, we may not be at the finish line, but we may be able to start seeing it in the distance.

 

[Micklebot]

very low given that the testing is still targeted to higher risk people and places.

I thought Ontario opened up testing to anyone who wanted to be tested.

Ontario Opens Up COVID-19 Testing Across the Province

"Ontario now has the most open and robust testing criteria in the entire country. In fact, anyone who feels they need a test will be able to get a test," said Premier Ford. "We can't manage what we can't measure, and our newly expanded testing strategy is our best defence against stopping the spread of COVID-19 as we gradually and safely reopen the province. More proactive testing will give employers and their employees confidence as they return to work and will fortify our alert system for any potential surge in new cases."

Anyways, either way it's good news. Things are moving in the right direction, here's hoping it stays that way.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

...

There are probably a number of explanations for the improving picture - the virus might be weakening, there may be more immunity among the public than previously thought, and doctors are getting better at treating it when cases land in the hospital. They have had to learn on the fly, but these are brilliant professionals and they are now figuring out which treatments work best and when. (Remember the uproar over available ventilators? Never mind - as it turns out, ventilators are rarely the right treatment. In some cases, they are finding that sleep apnea machines work better.)

COVID-19 is a tough customer, but it is not magic - it is a virus, and every virus has a pattern and a lifespan. My guess is that within a month or so, we may not be at the finish line, but we may be able to start seeing it in the distance.

The rather extreme measures taken back in March were about avoiding the surge in cases overwhelming the hospitals. And that was successful, I believe, in most places in NA.

But it was also about buying the scientific and medical community time to improve their approach to treating this. Is it true that the case fatality rate is now much improved? That's what one would expect (and hope).

Could you provide links to your sources? I'd really like to read them.

 

[DrEasy]

The number of daily cases is still going up worldwide though. It's been more than 100K/day for over a week now. South America and the Indian subcontinent worst hit. Don't know if we're immune (so to speak) to another wave caused by imported cases when we lift our travel restrictions.

 

[Stylizer1]

‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

 

[Micklebot]

‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

I think Rachel Maddow was reporting this what feels like a month ago... maybe it wasn't that long... time seems to be standing still.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

Trump wants to win the testing Olympics....more than any other nation by far...tremendous and I was left with nothing by the previous administration

 

[The Lewler]

Taking your position to the logical end point, you are saying if gov't is not willing to curb peoples right to protest in a given situation, then the must also not be willing to suspend business.

It sounds good except that the gov't is currently subsidizing those very businesses to stay closed. Now you can certainly argue that they should be doing more, but in the end there's a false equivalence in equating suspending non-essensial businesses while you subsidize them to do so and suspending the right to assemble in protest.

There's also questions as to what is the greater risk; outdood assembly for the purpose of civil protest or opening busineses that typically opperate indoors. Then you have to ask if the benefit gained by taking those risks balance. Is lessening economic pain for the busineses told to stay closed equal in vale to easing social pain caused by systemic racism?

I think it's important for protesters to consider the impacts of their choices in times like these, the moral questions that arise are pretty significant as their actions put all of society at greater risk, not just them and their social circle. To me, thats a far bigger moral dilemma than whether gov't should be comfortable letting protests go on while asking businesses to stay closed.

Due to current time constraint , no , my self caricatured position will be that up until 5 minutes ago the risk of death and long term injuries to the populace was such that any gathering of more than 5 people was tantamount to willfully killing people and was denounced by all levels of govt and health experts with codified state punishment to back it up.

But now apparently despite having had a Liberal govt for most of the past 50 years and one of the most tolerant and progressive countries the world has ever seen , with a Charter of Rights and human rights tribunals and public that displays ongoing social consciousness even if slowly, no no we have reached a terrible tipping point of systemic racism that has spread like a virus , and that it must be responded to with protests and demonstrations immediately, even if it causes spikes of an actual pandemic virus .

For the record , obviously Canada has historic and present racism problems . Anyone denying that is a charlatan or an idiot .

Is the entire democratic economic and justice system beset by deep rooted systemic racism and must be torn down root and stem ? My opinion is clearly no.

 

[Micklebot]

Due to current time constraint , no , my self caricatured position will be that up until 5 minutes ago the risk of death and long term injuries to the populace was such that any gathering of more than 5 people was tantamount to willfully killing people and was denounced by all levels of govt and health experts with codified state punishment to back it up.

But now apparently despite having had a Liberal govt for most of the past 50 years and one of the most tolerant and progressive countries the world has ever seen , with a Charter of Rights and human rights tribunals and public that displays ongoing social consciousness even if slowly, no no we have reached a terrible tipping point of systemic racism that is spreading like a virus , and that it must be responded to with protests and demonstrations immediately, even in the face of an actual pandemic virus .

For the record , obviously Canada has historic and present racism problems . Anyone denying that is a charlatan or an idiot .

Congrats on combining strawman arguments and minimizing real world problems while at the same time not addressing pretty much anything in my post, its been a real treat but i think i have a pretty good idea where you stand now and im comfortable with not going down a path that will likely just result in neither of us seeing eye to eye on anything.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Is the entire democratic economic and justice system beset by deep rooted systemic racism and must be torn down root and stem ? My opinion is clearly no.

A classic case of not seeing the forest for the trees.

What good is enlightenment if all it does is make you scoff at people pushing for positive change

Go back to your ivory tower to sneer at those who have the courage of their convictions.

 

[The Lewler]

Congrats on combining strawman arguments and minimizing real world problems while at the same time not addressing pretty much anything in my post, its been a real treat but i think i have a pretty good idea where you stand now and im comfortable with not going down a path that will likely just result in neither of us seeing eye to eye on anything.

I’ll gladly circle back later tonight when I have more time .

And that’s fine if you want this discourse to end here .

 

[The Lewler]

A classic case of not seeing the forest for the trees.

What good is enlightenment if all it does is make you scoff at people pushing for positive change

Go back to your ivory tower to sneer at those who have the courage of their convictions.

That was a lot of snark to state nothing .

I literally wrote earlier I have no problem with the protests.

My digression at the end about systemic racism was off topic , we can talk about the actual evidence surrounding systemic racism in a separate vein .

The bulk of my post was getting at the dramatic shift surrounding what is acceptable reasons to ignore health guidance on covid . Ie before : nothing . Now : ?

What I can’t abide is the lack of honesty about the value calculation that was made re protesting for this cause vs covid measures , and abject hypocrisy about it in some cases .

The very last thing I wrote a page back was

“The messaging should be shifting to what we saw from some circles around these protests. This activity should be allowed with masking and social distancing. As should almost every business that exists.”

 

[thinkwild]

In Canada we only have hundreds of homicides a year while we have thousands of flu deaths a year. Why do we bother spending money on murder investigations? I mean think of all the property taxes we could save. So what if a fraction of the number of flu victims get murdered? The market can handle this. If you live in an area with a lot of homicides, move somewhere else. I don’t think we have a problem with systemic homicides in Canada that requires hundreds of millions a year in taxes and dedicated systemic institutions to solve. Sure there are a few bad apples who murder but its not a systemic thing requiring a systemic response. I mean ive never met anyone who got murdered or murdered someone. Its not really an issue to me. I think the media is just overblowing the issue of murders for ratings.

 

[tardigrade81]

The number of daily cases is still going up worldwide though. It's been more than 100K/day for over a week now. South America and the Indian subcontinent worst hit. Don't know if we're immune (so to speak) to another wave caused by imported cases when we lift our travel restrictions.

That’s the scary thing, and we haven’t even fully opened up yet. Not sure what’s going to happen once beaches and stuff open up.

 

[Knave]

In Canada we only have hundreds of homicides a year while we have thousands of flu deaths a year. Why do we bother spending money on murder investigations? I mean think of all the property taxes we could save. So what if a fraction of the number of flu victims get murdered? The market can handle this. If you live in an area with a lot of homicides, move somewhere else. I don’t think we have a problem with systemic homicides in Canada that requires hundreds of millions a year in taxes and dedicated systemic institutions to solve. Sure there are a few bad apples who murder but its not a systemic thing requiring a systemic response. I mean ive never met anyone who got murdered or murdered someone. Its not really an issue to me. I think the media is just overblowing the issue of murders for ratings.

I think coronavirus can teach us something about dealing with the flu like getting a flu shot, wearing a mask if you think you might be sick and want to disregard advice and run an errand or go to work. I'll ignore the rest of this post which is probably sarcasm.

 

[The Lewler]

Congrats on combining strawman arguments and minimizing real world problems while at the same time not addressing pretty much anything in my post, its been a real treat but i think i have a pretty good idea where you stand now and im comfortable with not going down a path that will likely just result in neither of us seeing eye to eye on anything.

So here is one of the thoughts I've been mulling.

I've seen it stated that you can't equate protesting against lockdowns to save small businesses and peoples jobs, to protesting against police brutality and systemic racism.

Why exactly? Because you don't like the message of one protest and do for the other?

Is it only me that sees that as a violation of freedom of expression/assembly , as it's a content dependent test on your freedom?

 

[thinkwild]

So here is one of the thoughts I've been mulling.

I've seen it stated that you can't equate protesting against lockdowns to save small businesses and peoples jobs, to protesting against police brutality and systemic racism.

Why exactly? Because you don't like the message of one protest and do for the other?

Is it only me that sees that as a violation of freedom of expression/assembly , as it's a content dependent test on your freedom?

I don’t really see a violation. Armed protesters stormed a state assembly. No one stopped them. No one tried to take their rights away. There was disgust by the majority that they would voluntarily pee in the pool everyone else was trying to clean up but no one arrested them for it.

Both the protests against the lockdown and the protests against the murder were against public health recommendations and are likely to cause a spike in cases and deaths. Although one had more masks.

I have a lot of sympathy for the people protesting the murder. I have a lot of sympathy for people being ruined by the lockdown. I have no sympathy for political protesters trying to intimidate the end of the lockdown with guns against the wishes of the majority in a democracy. And so I cant equate the two situations at all. But neither had their rights violated. Both were allowed to protest ( well the lockdown protesters were anyway) and both I think may cause issues for the return to normal.

But hopefully data will still guide us going forward. Lets see what happens from all this. Maybe the data will show that the lockdown can end. I sure hope so. Not optimistic though.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

So here is one of the thoughts I've been mulling.

I've seen it stated that you can't equate protesting against lockdowns to save small businesses and peoples jobs, to protesting against police brutality and systemic racism.

Why exactly? Because you don't like the message of one protest and do for the other?

Is it only me that sees that as a violation of freedom of expression/assembly , as it's a content dependent test on your freedom?

I think it all boils down to one thing...tolerance level.

For the most part, people were pretty good staying home for a few months and having so many jobs and businesses shut down. But there is a limit. People are afraid, anxious...not knowing their their jobs will come back. If it wasn't Floyd, it would've been something else to cause this explosion. Governments know this, and wisely stepped back to allow folks to get rid of a bit of that pressure that has built up before it could get any worse.

Yes, it will likely cause a surge in covid-19 cases....but it looks like we've bought enough time here. The weather is warmer (harder to transmit the virus), and treatments are a lot better than they were in March. So hopefully it won't be too bad.

 

[The Lewler]

I don’t really see a violation. Armed protesters stormed a state assembly. No one stopped them. No one tried to take their rights away. There was disgust by the majority that they would voluntarily pee in the pool everyone else was trying to clean up but no one arrested them for it.

Both the protests against the lockdown and the protests against the murder were against public health recommendations and are likely to cause a spike in cases and deaths. Although one had more masks.

I have a lot of sympathy for the people protesting the murder. I have a lot of sympathy for people being ruined by the lockdown. I have no sympathy for political protesters trying to intimidate the end of the lockdown with guns against the wishes of the majority in a democracy. And so I cant equate the two situations at all. But neither had their rights violated. Both were allowed to protest ( well the lockdown protesters were anyway) and both I think may cause issues for the return to normal.

But hopefully data will still guide us going forward. Lets see what happens from all this. Maybe the data will show that the lockdown can end. I sure hope so. Not optimistic though.

My lens is primarily Canadian, I'm not thinking of Michigan, while I'm aware of what you are referencing. The issue of protestors open carrying and such are not material to what I'm thinking about.

I'm saying, the decision was made to allow mass gatherings to protest here in Ontario (fine by me).

Now this is obviously and clearly in direct opposition to all heretofore stated and mandated social health policy to socially distance to protect lives and stop the spread of covid. This isn't a trap, we should all be able to agree on this reality.

Where we now have disagreement, is in the logical extensions of that rationalization.

You are going to have to make the case to me, why these protests were sufficiently necessary to allow this, but not to allow people to gather for other purposes or to open their businesses. I am an atheist, but try juxtaposing the freedom of assembly and expression to protest and that same freedom of assembly to gather and worship exercising your religions freedom. I realize economic freedom and the right to exercise your own labour is placed in a tier below these freedoms, but it isn't a trivial matter.

I think alot of what I'm saying is rendered moot by Ontario going ahead with phase 2 re-openings. I realize that decision was in the works before the killing of George Floyd, but it would have been one hell of a logical contortion to try to explain to the populace why they actually had to stay locked down completely after this week.

Again, I think there is tons of common ground here. Murder of George Floyd. Bad. Police brutality. Bad. Deaths from covid. Bad. Destroyed lives from economic fallout of lockdowns. Bad.

 

[thinkwild]

My lens is primarily Canadian, I'm not thinking of Michigan, while I'm aware of what you are referencing. The issue of protestors open carrying and such are not material to what I'm thinking about.

I'm saying, the decision was made to allow mass gatherings to protest here in Ontario (fine by me).

Now this is obviously and clearly in direction opposition to all heretofore stated and mandated social health policy to socially distance to protect lives and stop the spread of covid. This isn't a trap, we should all be able to agree on this reality.

Where we now have disagreement, is in the logical extensions of that rationalization.

You are going to have to make the case to me, why these protests were sufficiently necessary to allow this, but not to allow people to gather for other purposes or to open their businesses. I am an atheist, but try juxtaposing the freedom of assembly and expression to protest and that same freedom of assembly to gather and worship exercising your religions freedom. I realize economic freedom and the right to exercise your own labour is placed in a tier below these freedoms, but it isn't a trivial matter.

I think alot of what I'm saying is rendered moot by Ontario going ahead with phase 2 re-openings. I realize that decision was in the works before the killing of George Floyd, but it would have been one hell of a logical contortion to try to explain to the populace why they actually had to stay locked down completely after this week.

Again, I think there is tons of common ground here. Murder of George Floyd. Bad. Police brutality. Bad. Deaths from covid. Bad. Destroyed lives from economic fallout of lockdowns. Bad.

I definitely get it. Its been real hard for people who were told their loved ones must die alone and they cant have a funeral only to then see many thousands of protesters and politicians marching. How come they get to decide to break the rules for a larger reason? This is a hard one.

But I wasn’t aware that there was a decision made in Ontario or anywhere to allow the protests. Im not up to date on all that is happening so I may well have missed that. But im not sure there was really any choice about allowing the protests. Maybe a recognition they are happening and we cant stop them so lets focus on harm reduction as much as possible.

But yeah, try telling Trump for example that he cant have a rally now. Or that people seeing their businesses circle the toilet cant open. Its tough. But the data will hopefully guide us more than saying well Johnny got to stay out late so why cant i.

 

[Satoru Gojo]

That’s the scary thing, and we haven’t even fully opened up yet. Not sure what’s going to happen once beaches and stuff open up.

Have a look at Europe. Germany and Italy have been relatively open for over a month and theres been nothing even close to a spike. Deaths have continued downward as well

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says

 

[thinkwild]

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says

That would be a huge game changer if true. It would make temperature checks much less of a performance art. We should probably get some answers in a couple of weeks. My fingers are crossed.

More research and data are needed to “truly answer” the question of whether the coronavirus can spread widely through asymptomatic carriers, Van Kerkhove added.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

That would be a huge game changer if true. It would make temperature checks much less of a performance art. We should probably get some answers in a couple of weeks. My fingers are crossed.

Wouldn't that also mean that social distancing, mask wearing and locking down thousands and thousands of businesses was not as effective as originally thought? Not to mention the effects of a prolonged lockdown had on people.

Will be interesting to see what comes forth from this information.