Even advanced stats show Pens’ goalie is at his best

[Doctor No]

From the Times Online:

http://www.timesonline.com/sports/p...cle_1b3b02e8-f7d7-54df-b33f-98fe578d727f.html

My first thought was "I wonder how different the Goals Above Replacement" calculation was from my site, and was surprised that the numbers matched my own for last year (16.9).

Tracing it back, the site that they reference:
http://www.faceoff-factor.com/1pittsburgh-penguins/4940/check-in-fleurys-advanced-numbers

Referenced my site. Neat! It also looks like he's done the legwork for 2013-14 so far (I don't have those numbers on my page, since I haven't come up with a clever way to automate the process).

Click to read more...

 

[Doctor No]

The article doesn't go into Fleury's postseason troubles - and he's had some doozies.

I wonder how much of this is just the slow accumulation of small sample sizes - Barry Bonds went from "postseason failure" to "steroid head" with just one great run.

The conclusion in the article is an interesting one (although not necessarily false) - the headline states that Fleury's at his best, but the numbers presented suggest that he's a league-average goalie.

Fleury's one of the ones that I'm really looking forward to running my aging curves on - once I'm more satisfied that they can be a somewhat reliable predictor.

 

[hatterson]

Good to see your site get some much deserved references.

Regarding playoff success, it's always been a fickle animal plague by sample size issues and massive amounts of confirmation bias.

One fun example is to think about Tom Brady. He's viewed as a clutch performer, and one of the greatest post season quarterbacks of all time after winning the superbowl three out of four years from 2001-2004. But what if his career was played backwards?

He would have started out with a disappointing loss to the Ravens in the conference championship game, followed it up with being unable to complete the perfect season against the giants, then two straight one and done seasons, then a missed year for a knee injury. Would there be questions about if he has what it takes to win it all? He would have followed it up with another loss to the Giants, then two straight losses to the Colts. I'm not even sure 3 wins in 4 years at the point resurrect his image to what it is now. But played in the way it happened, he's an all time post season great.

Fleury certainly has had issues, but we're also looking at sample sizes of 5, 6, 7 and 13 games on a team that had significant roster turmoil during those seasons (Crosby and Malkin missing significant time).

 

[Doctor No]

It's interesting that you bring up the Brady example, because I literally just had that conversation with John Elway this morning (I'm a Seahawks fan working in Denver, and today is "Broncos Day" ).

If Elway wins his first two Super Bowls and then goes oh-for, I think he's looked at even better than he currently is.

Back to Fleury - when the Penguins won the Cup in 2009, his performance in the playoffs was 5.4 goals below average, which is a tremendous accomplishment (in terms of rarity).

Going back as far as I have patience at the moment (to 1970), these were the #1 goaltenders (in terms of minutes played) for recent Stanley Cup winners:

|Year|GD
Corey Crawford |2013| 6.9
Jonathan Quick |2012|14.9
Tim Thomas |2011|24.3
Antti Niemi |2010| 1.5
Marc-Andre Fleury |2009| -5.4
Chris Osgood |2008| 7.6
Jean-Sebastien Giguere |2007| 1.8
Cam Ward |2006| 8.9
Nikolai Khabibulin |2004| 7.3
Martin Brodeur |2003|11.0
Dominik Hasek |2002| 1.4
Patrick Roy |2001|15.6
Martin Brodeur |2000| 5.5
Ed Belfour |1999|10.9
Chris Osgood |1998| 2.2
Mike Vernon |1997| 4.3
Patrick Roy |1996|10.4
Martin Brodeur |1995|21.4
Mike Richter |1994| 8.8
Patrick Roy |1993|24.3
Tom Barrasso |1992| 7.4
Tom Barrasso |1991|16.5
Bill Ranford |1990|17.5
Mike Vernon |1989| 7.3
Grant Fuhr |1988| 7.4
Grant Fuhr |1987| 5.4
Patrick Roy |1986|15.9
Grant Fuhr |1985| 7.6
Grant Fuhr |1984| 7.3
Billy Smith |1983|17.5
Billy Smith |1982|12.0
Billy Smith |1981|13.3
Billy Smith |1980| 5.7
Ken Dryden |1979| 1.5
Ken Dryden |1978|10.3
Ken Dryden |1977|14.9
Ken Dryden |1976| 9.7
Bernie Parent |1975| 9.9
Bernie Parent |1974|15.1
Ken Dryden |1973| 3.7
Gerry Cheevers |1972| 2.5
Ken Dryden |1971| 8.1
Gerry Cheevers |1970| 8.8

We've seen some great postseason performances by Cup-winning goaltenders, and we've seen some that were barely above average. But - except for Fleury - ALL SINCE 1970 HAVE BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE.

That's an impressive pattern to buck.

 

[hatterson]

Back to Fleury - when the Penguins won the Cup in 2009, his performance in the playoffs was 5.4 goals below average, which is a tremendous accomplishment (in terms of rarity).

We've seen some great postseason performances by Cup-winning goaltenders, and we've seen some that were barely above average. But - except for Fleury - ALL SINCE 1970 HAVE BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE.

That's really an impressive accomplishment for the team, although I'm curious how much of that was driven by his terrible series against the Caps. He had a couple bad games in other series (Game 3 against the Flyers, and game 5 against the Wings) but he was mostly solid outside the second round. Perhaps not great, but I'd certainly think rounds 1, 3 and 4 were at least average.

 

[radapex]

It's interesting that you bring up the Brady example, because I literally just had that conversation with John Elway this morning (I'm a Seahawks fan working in Denver, and today is "Broncos Day" ).

If Elway wins his first two Super Bowls and then goes oh-for, I think he's looked at even better than he currently is.

Back to Fleury - when the Penguins won the Cup in 2009, his performance in the playoffs was 5.4 goals below average, which is a tremendous accomplishment (in terms of rarity).

Going back as far as I have patience at the moment (to 1970), these were the #1 goaltenders (in terms of minutes played) for recent Stanley Cup winners:

|Year|GD
Corey Crawford |2013| 6.9
Jonathan Quick |2012|14.9
Tim Thomas |2011|24.3
Antti Niemi |2010| 1.5
Marc-Andre Fleury |2009| -5.4
Chris Osgood |2008| 7.6
Jean-Sebastien Giguere |2007| 1.8
Cam Ward |2006| 8.9
Nikolai Khabibulin |2004| 7.3
Martin Brodeur |2003|11.0
Dominik Hasek |2002| 1.4
Patrick Roy |2001|15.6
Martin Brodeur |2000| 5.5
Ed Belfour |1999|10.9
Chris Osgood |1998| 2.2
Mike Vernon |1997| 4.3
Patrick Roy |1996|10.4
Martin Brodeur |1995|21.4
Mike Richter |1994| 8.8
Patrick Roy |1993|24.3
Tom Barrasso |1992| 7.4
Tom Barrasso |1991|16.5
Bill Ranford |1990|17.5
Mike Vernon |1989| 7.3
Grant Fuhr |1988| 7.4
Grant Fuhr |1987| 5.4
Patrick Roy |1986|15.9
Grant Fuhr |1985| 7.6
Grant Fuhr |1984| 7.3
Billy Smith |1983|17.5
Billy Smith |1982|12.0
Billy Smith |1981|13.3
Billy Smith |1980| 5.7
Ken Dryden |1979| 1.5
Ken Dryden |1978|10.3
Ken Dryden |1977|14.9
Ken Dryden |1976| 9.7
Bernie Parent |1975| 9.9
Bernie Parent |1974|15.1
Ken Dryden |1973| 3.7
Gerry Cheevers |1972| 2.5
Ken Dryden |1971| 8.1
Gerry Cheevers |1970| 8.8

We've seen some great postseason performances by Cup-winning goaltenders, and we've seen some that were barely above average. But - except for Fleury - ALL SINCE 1970 HAVE BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE.

That's an impressive pattern to buck.

Fleury had a very hot-and-cold playoff run that year. The difference in his numbers between wins and losses was pretty incredible.

Wins (16): 1.93 GAA, .932 SV%
Losses (8): 4.09 GAA, .856 SV%

Compare that to the previous year where he put up Conn Smythe calibre numbers:

Wins (14): 1.61 GAA, .942 SV%
Losses (6): 2.86 GAA, .913 SV%

2009-10 (Ottawa, Montreal) and 2010-11 (Tampa Bay) followed much the same pattern as 2008-09, as had his regular season play until the past 3 or 4 seasons - inconsistent with high highs and low lows.

 

[Doctor No]

That's true, both in terms of the prior year and the bipolar nature of Fleury's Stanley Cup season - Fleury's 2007-08 was about 13 goals above average, which (if inserted into the list above) would put him in the "hey - nice job" category.

I need to go back into that chart above and add the average strength of schedule. Fleury's average playoff opponent was 0.37 goals better than average, but had a shooting percentage 11.3% above average (percent, not percentage points - a key thing to bring up for this metric).

 

[radapex]

That's really an impressive accomplishment for the team, although I'm curious how much of that was driven by his terrible series against the Caps. He had a couple bad games in other series (Game 3 against the Flyers, and game 5 against the Wings) but he was mostly solid outside the second round. Perhaps not great, but I'd certainly think rounds 1, 3 and 4 were at least average.

Here's the context I look put Fleury's 2008-09 Stanley Cup run in. Fleury stopped 48 of 50 shots in games 6 & 7 en route to a pair of 2-1 victories in which Crosby and Malkin combined for exactly 1 point.

IMO he doesn't get enough credit for his play in those playoffs because his overall numbers weren't pretty. He was a game changer against the Flyers coming up with key save after key save and was perhaps the biggest reason they won games 6 & 7 against Detroit.

 

[radapex]

That's true, both in terms of the prior year and the bipolar nature of Fleury's Stanley Cup season - Fleury's 2007-08 was about 13 goals above average, which (if inserted into the list above) would put him in the "hey - nice job" category.

I need to go back into that chart above and add the average strength of schedule. Fleury's average playoff opponent was 0.37 goals better than average, but had a shooting percentage 11.3% above average (percent, not percentage points - a key thing to bring up for this metric).

Having watched Fleury since his days in Cape Breton, the most frustrating thing about him is that he very clearly has an all-world level of talent but has never been able to do more than show flashes of it. He's kind of grown out of his troubles with consistency, but still struggles technically at times and there's always the risk of folding under pressure - hence the reason the Penguins got him a new goalie coach and got him seeing a sports psychologist.

There's a lot of hyperbole when it comes to discussing Fleury, most of it being negative now (ie: "worst goalie in the league", "shouldn't even be in the NHL") when the most accurate description is likely "an average to above average starter for an highly offensive team that struggles defensively".