Speculation: Ethan Bear’s next contract

[Cloned]

Sean Walker recently signed a 4 year extension with LA at 2.65M per. The reason why I bring up Walker is I feel he represents a decent comparable for Bear. There are some key differences, but it might be a good base to start with.

Here’s Walker:

Sean Walker Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Here’s Bear:

Ethan Bear Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

• They’re both 5’11” RHD. Walker is 25. Bear is 23.
  
• Production is similar. Walker is a better skater. Bear is a better passer. Both looked like their team’s best defenseman at times during the season.
  
• The difference is Bear averaged 22 minutes TOI, Walker averaged 19 minutes TOI. Which means Bear was played like a 3/4, Walker like a 4/5.
• Walker actually had the better Corsi, but again, in less TOI.
• Bear had the better PDO.
• Both are pretty close to 50/50 as far as offensive zone vs. defensive zone starts; Bear with a slight bias towards the offensive zone 52/48.
  
• Overall point shares are similar, Walker at 3.8, Bear at 4.0. Walker had the better offensive PS, Bear had the better defensive PS.
• Bear had the higher xGF, but also the higher xGA. He’s a higher event player than Walker, and played a bigger role. Team effect probably had something to do with it as well. Bear was overall +2.2, Walker was actually -1.1.
• And of course Bear is younger.
• Walker’s contract brings him to UFA. Bear is eligible for UFA in 2024, assuming an extension doesn’t carry past it.

Would 3M per for Bear be too much? 2.75? Term? Thread needs more Supergirl gifs?

Click to read more...

 

[Mr Positive]

TOI is the big factor for why Bear would get more, particularly his even strength TOI. Bear is on our top pairing. But I think Walker is a good comparable, so maybe the same deal but a bit more than 3, and it ends in RFA status. It helps that Bear was a later round pick imo. If a blue chip prospect has a great season, there's a clear continuity, and less likely that it's a one-off.

Part of this depends on how bold Bear is. He may insist on a shorter term deal to establish himself more. I don't like that option, but it is a bit safer and it would be a better short term cap hit.

 

[Cloned]

TOI is the big factor for why Bear would get more, particularly his even strength TOI. Bear is on our top pairing. But I think Walker is a good comparable, so maybe the same deal but a bit more than 3, and it ends in RFA status. It helps that Bear was a later round pick imo. If a blue chip prospect has a great season, there's a clear continuity, and less likely that it's a one-off.

Part of this depends on how bold Bear is. He may insist on a shorter term deal to establish himself more. I don't like that option, but it is a bit safer and it would be a better short term cap hit.

Good point about the draft pedigree, I forgot that often plays into contract negotiations too.

 

[Fourier]

TOI is the big factor for why Bear would get more, particularly his even strength TOI. Bear is on our top pairing. But I think Walker is a good comparable, so maybe the same deal but a bit more than 3, and it ends in RFA status. It helps that Bear was a later round pick imo. If a blue chip prospect has a great season, there's a clear continuity, and less likely that it's a one-off.

Part of this depends on how bold Bear is. He may insist on a shorter term deal to establish himself more. I don't like that option, but it is a bit safer and it would be a better short term cap hit.

On the flip side Walker is 25 so this deal eats up two years of UFA time. That matters a fair bit as well.

What it does is to potentially set a lower bar for a shorter bridge. I think we will see more of these sort of modest contracts this off season.

 

[Cloned]

On the flip side Walker is 25 so this deal eats up two years of UFA time. That matters a fair bit as well.

What it does is to potentially set a lower bar for a shorter bridge. I think we will see more of these sort of modest contracts this off season.

I was waiting for your input in this thread!

What do you think is fair? 2 years/2.75 per? Less?

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I think the Oilers play hardball with Bear on a 1 year deal to keep his AAV down. Our cap opens up next year considerably when we can do a longer term deal with Bear, but we need to count every penny this year considering our lack of cap space and that Holland wants to keep a reserve of 1.5M for in season flexibility. Bear doesn’t have arbitration rights yet so the Oilers are in the advantageous bargaining position right now.

@Fourier when do arb rights kick in again, after a players 2nd contract or 2 years after his ELC?

 

[ImmuneEH]

I was waiting for your input in this thread!

What do you think is fair? 2 years/2.75 per? Less?

I make it a priority to give Bear a long-term extension. To me, he's a core piece of our D moving forward. I'd rather have him over Larsson, and I feel that it won't be long before I say the same about Bouchard > Larsson. 6+ years at $4.7 sounds good to me. Maybe we can get him cheaper, idk.

Trade AA and Russell, that opens up cap space.

AA would recoup a pick or two we spent on him, and Jones is a 3LD, and tbh I think I'd rather have him over Russell, cap aside.

 

[Del Preston]

I think the Oilers play hardball with Bear on a 1 year deal to keep his AAV down. Our cap opens up next year considerably when we can do a longer term deal with Bear, but we need to count every penny this year considering our lack of cap space and that Holland wants to keep a reserve of 1.5M for in season flexibility. Bear doesn’t have arbitration rights yet so the Oilers are in the advantageous bargaining position right now.

@Fourier when do arb rights kick in again, after a players 2nd contract or 2 years after his ELC?

Bear is arbitration eligible after the 2020-21 season. A few months ago Stauffer was speculating Bear could get a 1-year contract like the Rangers did with DeAngelo prior to this past (current) season. Similar situations.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I was waiting for your input in this thread!

What do you think is fair? 2 years/2.75 per? Less?

I was thinking 2 years 2.75 or if he is willing 4 years 3.25/3.5 would be doable.

 

[Soundwave]

I don't think it's a given Bear gets more. Walker is giving up actual UFA years on a 4 year deal that's a major difference.

 

[belair]

Walker didn't get propped up by an elite level offensive line at even strength. Bear's game is a good compliment to our skill, but he's hardly a guy I'm worrying about signing to term just yet. This is fine, but I'd like to see him get less.

 

[Fourier]

I think the Oilers play hardball with Bear on a 1 year deal to keep his AAV down. Our cap opens up next year considerably when we can do a longer term deal with Bear, but we need to count every penny this year considering our lack of cap space and that Holland wants to keep a reserve of 1.5M for in season flexibility. Bear doesn’t have arbitration rights yet so the Oilers are in the advantageous bargaining position right now.

@Fourier when do arb rights kick in again, after a players 2nd contract or 2 years after his ELC?

For a group 2 RFA who signed his deal between 18 and 20 must have 4 years of professional experience. So Bear would be eligible after next year.

 

[Fourier]

I was waiting for your input in this thread!

What do you think is fair? 2 years/2.75 per? Less?

For me I'd wait on Bear until they see if they need space. If they don't sign anyone of significance they might be able to go longer at a discount from what one would have expected pre-pandemic.

Frankly, if they need space I think the Oilers hold all the cards. On a two year deal I'd like to see something like $2.3M or so. Jones is at $850K for two years. Next year the gap between these two could be a lot less than it seems.

 

[780il]

Probably something like:

2 years x 2.5 or 3 years x 2.75

Holland won’t give him 4 years and walk him to UFA on a bridge...

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Probably something like:

2 years x 2.5 or 3 years x 2.75

Holland won’t give him 4 years and walk him to UFA on a bridge...

Didn’t he do that with Nurse? Lol

 

[780il]

Didn’t he do that with Nurse? Lol

Good point lmao

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Bear is arbitration eligible after the 2020-21 season. A few months ago Stauffer was speculating Bear could get a 1-year contract like the Rangers did with DeAngelo prior to this past (current) season. Similar situations.

Thx wasn’t sure when it was. Yeah I recall Stauffer saying that and it makes the most sense as well. We need to watch every penny this year.

 

[Aerchon]

I would give Bear a 8 year 4 million per year contract. If he would take it.

His progress since being drafted indicates a player who should continue to develop. As early as next year 4 mill may well be a bargain.

 

[Mr Positive]

Walker didn't get propped up by an elite level offensive line at even strength. Bear's game is a good compliment to our skill, but he's hardly a guy I'm worrying about signing to term just yet. This is fine, but I'd like to see him get less.

Walker got to play with Doughty though. With all factors included, RFA vs UFA years, TOI, usage, performance, team context, etc I'd value them very similar to each other today.

If we go for a short term deal we could save some cap, but if Bear just equals his season from last year his value will go up sharply.

 

[CanmoreMike]

I think because the Oilers aren’t buying any UFA years at this juncture his numbers will be considerably lower. I could see in the $1.9-2.25M range. Maybe even lower.

Few things working against him include:

uncertainty with revenues - many teams will opt out of any RFA bidding more than usual. Some might even flood the market with their players they can’t afford.

Flat cap - similar issue as above - so I can’t imagine teams bidding and tying up tons of cap space on a guy that hasn’t spent a minute within their group, city or played in their system.

Expansion draft - to imagine some team bidding on Bear, giving up a draft pick and then risking losing him to Seattle...I don’t see it. I think most teams know they stand to lose a good player. Adding someone like Bear pushes someone else to being exposed in the draft.

Even if Bear stayed in the minors this year and was returned next season to the AHL as well after clearing waivers I could still see Seattle taking a flyer on him. He played his hockey there. They’d want him.

 

[bronco73]

Bear is subject to a QO, and according to cap friendly's calculator it will be in the $735K range.

Ethan Bear Qualifying Offer Calculator Results - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Fourier]

Bear is subject to a QO, and according to cap friendly's calculator it will be in the $735K range.

Ethan Bear Qualifying Offer Calculator Results - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

That's true but I don't think anyone expects him to sign that offer. If he did he should immediately fire his agent.

 

[Fourier]

Walker got to play with Doughty though. With all factors included, RFA vs UFA years, TOI, usage, performance, team context, etc I'd value them very similar to each other today.

If we go for a short term deal we could save some cap, but if Bear just equals his season from last year his value will go up sharply.

Would it really go up that much is he simply equaled last year??

I think Bear significantly outplayed expectations but he was far from a polished product. In this financial environment last year's Bear might get $4M as an established vet. Nurse got $5.6M in the latter half of a 10 goal 41 point season where he was playing as the team's #1 defenseman in all situations and many here thought that was too much. If it was long term it might have been $6.5M given the expectation of a fast rising cap. Today that contract both short term and long term could easily be $500K less on the short end and $1M less on the long end.

This is a contract that I wait on until you know what opportunities you have in the off season. If you need to go short for less dollars to take advantage of something that can make your team better you do so. If you think those opportunities might come next off season maybe you even go one year. If the team wants to play out the next couple of years conservatively, then trying to sign him long term right now might make sense. If you bridge Bear and he turns into a minute eating 40+ point defenseman you deal with that when it comes.

 

[Fourier]

Didn’t he do that with Nurse? Lol

Nurse's deal was only two years. Even if it had been only 1 year the effect was the same since he could just accept his QO and walk. In Bear's case the smart move is to go less than 4 years to leave you with some bargaining power or go long term at the best dollar number you can get. For me three years would be ideal if they can keep the $'s down (ie $2.3-2.5M) since it would take you to a point where the cap should rise sharply and Neal's contract is off the books.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

I'm hoping $3.2M for 3 years, same bridge cap-hit Nurse got, but since he's less proven we get the extra year for taking a bit of a risk paying him likely more than he could get on a 2 year deal.