Speculation: Erik Karlsson

[Sota Popinski]

Tampa can't afford Karlsson unless they move some expensive contracts, Callahan is one that comes to mind.

Even then, still doubtful. TB has 13.5 mil in cap space next year. Brayden Point is RFA. He is going to get at least $6 million. Gourde is UFA, doubt they let him walk. Karlsson said he isnt taking a discount. San Jose will offer him at least $10.5 mil x 8 years. TB probably doesn't even have space to offer him $8 mil. Even if they did, the next year Callahan comes off the books but Vasilevskiy and Sergachev are RFAs. I just don't see how they can fit Karlsson in.

 

[Sota Popinski]

Yah because losing a first round pick when you have an aging forward group is nothing ground breaking lol... Next year when Karlsson might be gone, thronton retires and you have a 35 year old Pavelski.. That first rounder in 2019 is pretty handy. Not to mention sharks gave up there other 2017 first rounder in Josh Norris also. Sens getting 6 assets including 2 first rounders is win for Sens especially for 1 year of karlsson.

Delusional

 

[AndreRoy]

Even then, still doubtful. TB has 13.5 mil in cap space next year. Brayden Point is RFA. He is going to get at least $6 million. Gourde is UFA, doubt they let him walk. Karlsson said he isnt taking a discount. San Jose will offer him at least $10.5 mil x 8 years. TB probably doesn't even have space to offer him $8 mil. Even if they did, the next year Callahan comes off the books but Vasilevskiy and Sergachev are RFAs. I just don't see how they can fit Karlsson in.

That’s what I’ve been saying all along. The current state of the Lightning’s cap situation is that they have to let Stralman, Girardi, Coburn, and Callahan walk and trade Miller (or an equivalent salary - he just seems the most likely) just to afford the guys they already have. And even that might not be enough depending on what Point, Gourde, Serg, and Vasy end up getting.

So let’s be optimistic and assume for the moment that the departures of Stralman, Girardi, Coburn, Callahan, and Miller are in fact sufficient to afford the rest of the team as it stands now. About the only way to add Karlsson without trading any of the young core would be to somehow convince Johnson to agree to a trade (which he has no reason to do) AND either trade Killorn or let Gourde walk, and even then you’d need Karlsson to sign for a little under the $8M that nobody realistically expects him to settle for.

And let’s suppose we somehow pull all that off. We’ve managed to break even on the cap, but what we’ve lost is cap flexibility due to having Karlsson’s $8M locked up for eight years. So what happens when guys like Cirelli, or Cernak, or Foote, or any of our young forwards that would be promoted to replace Miller, Gourde, and Johnson finish their ELCs and need raises? Yes, we’ve got a lot of cheap young depth available at the moment, but they won’t be cheap forever and trading movable cap for an equivalent amount of immovable cap doesn’t help us maintain quality depth over the next several years. And that’s not even getting into the issue of what to do once Point and Serg come off their expected bridge deals - we may be able to replace young cheap depth with other young cheap depth but we can’t replace either of those two.

So the question then becomes is Karlsson worth drastically shortening our window over? It’s questionable even if we could expect the Karlsson of old, but when you throw in the risk of that ankle turning him into an albatross sooner rather than later the whole exercise becomes far too risky, even if we could somehow pull off all the highly improbable moves required to make it happen in the first place.

 

[BillR10]

People can read the article below for themselves.

Don't see info or comments suggesting he's a "bust".

Top 25 Sharks Under 25: No. 9 Josh Norris is right on track

His coach provided this info: This usage data also speaks to the trust that Norris has earned from (Michigan) Wolverines head coach Mel Pearson. From an interview with the Oakland Press in April: “I’m extremely happy with Josh, he’s a complete player, we play him in all situations, we play him on the power play, he kills penalties, he takes important face-offs, maybe the most important face-offs.”

Norris helped lead Michigan (Wolverines) to the Frozen Four this year and, while they were tragically eliminated at the hands of Notre Dame in a 4-3 loss on April 5, the kid’s usage tells us a lot about his role. Norris won 10 of 16 faceoffs, including the opening of three power plays and two penalty kills, and was on the ice in the final two minutes. Such an important role for a freshman is remarkable. Combined with his five points in five games for USA at the World Junior Summer Showcase in Kamloops this year (sharing a bench with future teammate and consonant hoarder Sasha Chmelevski), Norris’ year has been really promising.

Feel free to read the rest of the offensive dynamos ranked better than him on that list as well and you'll see how well his 1st rd stature stacks up against the sharks low round picks. The sharks have some good depth pieces that are ranked better than Norris. Fact still stands if he makes it hes likely destined for 3rd line center with a potential to fill in on the 2nd line. He is not a game breaker that tips the scale on a trade and not guaranteed to even make it to the big show. Also IMO stands for in my opinion from watching college games and world juniors not from reading articles.

 

[Taluss]

SJ is a gorgeous place, but I feel like he wants consistent chances at the cup. The sharks are damn good but are getting old, they have a small period before difficult choices imo. I hope they win one, but if they don’t I think Tampa is a big possibility.

 

[SensFactor]

I'm strictly talking from San Jose's perspective.

There's almost no way they lose the trade. Maybe a better way to put it is, there's almost no way this trade ends up poorly for them.

The only way the trade ends badly, like I said previously, is of the 1st in the trade ends up really high and Karl walks.

You bring up that their core is old, all the more reason for them to make this deal.

Either,

They just gave up 4-6 probable B/C level pieces for the best 1 year rental that's been on the market in a very long time. Effectively, this has increased their odds of winning before the older core expires.

Or, they just gave up 7 B/C level pieces to add a top 3 player in the NHL to their lineup for most of the next decade, thus rejuvenating this ageing core you brought up.

That's what I'm countering though. I don't think we got all b and c players especially since we haven't even seen the expected top player in the trade play and also the other 1st rounder to come. Sj absolutely loses the trade if Karlsson walks and especially if they don't win this year. My argument is that the Sens knew Karlsson was leaving, and got probably the best package for a 1 year rental. So not sure how they lose this trade simply on the fact that he was going to leave anyways and that he's a rental for any team.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Feel free to read the rest of the offensive dynamos ranked better than him on that list as well and you'll see how well his 1st rd stature stacks up against the sharks low round picks. The sharks have some good depth pieces that are ranked better than Norris. Fact still stands if he makes it hes likely destined for 3rd line center with a potential to fill in on the 2nd line. He is not a game breaker that tips the scale on a trade and not guaranteed to even make it to the big show. Also IMO stands for in my opinion from watching college games and world juniors not from reading articles.

Just thought I'd find what has been written about him, that's all. Seems like this article is saying he has some promise but they need to see how he progresses this year. I'm certainly not trying to portray him as a ringer to make it big in the NHL. I haven't seen anyone (including myself) saying anything about him being a game breaker.

No offense as this is not pointed at you (or anyone in particular), but I take a lot of the info and posters opinions here with a grain of salt. In your own assessment you forecast his value as being in the range of a 3rd liner (maybe 2nd liner) and being a complete bust. There's a sizable gap in that range and I'd guess you'd agree with that.

 

[SensFactor]

Delusional

I'm glad you admit you are.

 

[SensFactor]

SJ is a gorgeous place, but I feel like he wants consistent chances at the cup. The sharks are damn good but are getting old, they have a small period before difficult choices imo. I hope they win one, but if they don’t I think Tampa is a big possibility.

Smart man

 

[DFC]

Stevie comes to Detroit and snags him..ugh, that would be sick. Sadly only a dream.

Yzerman wanted Karlsson, but Karlsson, reportedly, wanted Tampa. So, unless the Red Wing rebuild gets super fast tracked, I can't see Karlsson going there.

 

[DFC]

Even then, still doubtful. TB has 13.5 mil in cap space next year. Brayden Point is RFA. He is going to get at least $6 million. Gourde is UFA, doubt they let him walk. Karlsson said he isnt taking a discount. San Jose will offer him at least $10.5 mil x 8 years. TB probably doesn't even have space to offer him $8 mil. Even if they did, the next year Callahan comes off the books but Vasilevskiy and Sergachev are RFAs. I just don't see how they can fit Karlsson in.

I think we'd let Gourde walk for a shot at Karlsson. Our forward depth is kind of sick. As great as Gourde is, he's a third liner for us. So, on one hand, it's "letting go of a guy who scored 60+ points," but, on the other hand, it's letting go of a really good depth scorer. Karlsson's worth that.

But there would be a ton of moving parts to make a Karlsson deal work. We'd have to let our three expiring D contracts walk, and hope Cernak and/or Koekkoek can use this year to show they can fill that void.

One of the major insiders, I forget which, but I think it was Friedman, said a Karlsson deal with TB would probably look more like Kucherov's than Doughty's. So maybe 9.5 to 10.5. I see no way we get up to 11. So, if he comes here, part of it's going to have to be because he wants to play here.

 

[Clayonator]

If Melnyk sells the team by July 1 2019 he’s coming home. Failing that, he’ll join his brother from another mother Hedman in Tampa.

 

[Alwalys]

It's pretty funny how little people know about San Jose's team makeup, and who the core actually is.

 

[Doyoulikeapples*]

He's going to sign in Toronto obviously, they will definitely win the next 20 cups.

this crap is petty and childish.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Yzerman wanted Karlsson, but Karlsson, reportedly, wanted Tampa. So, unless the Red Wing rebuild gets super fast tracked, I can't see Karlsson going there.

Zetterberg would be the guy they would have deliver the pitch knowing the Wings. Zetterberg and Karlsson are very close. I think they would need to win the lottery and add Hughes. But they would have the money and they would likely full court press him at that point. If he makes Free Agency they will chase Karlsson hard in my opinion. He might not want to go there, but they will try and I would think with the various connections they have to him they would probably get a meeting to at least pitch him.

 

[Sabre the Win]

He is in San Jose for this year but I see him testing free agency and going to Tampa.

 

[DFC]

Zetterberg would be the guy they would have deliver the pitch knowing the Wings. Zetterberg and Karlsson are very close. I think they would need to win the lottery and add Hughes. But they would have the money and they would likely full court press him at that point. If he makes Free Agency they will chase Karlsson hard in my opinion. He might not want to go there, but they will try and I would think with the various connections they have to him they would probably get a meeting to at least pitch him.

I think every team will kick tires. There are a lot of benefits to playing in TB right now, but the big drawback is, if you want to play here, you're going to have to take a discount. Whether or not the tax advantage evens that out, I'm not good enough with US tax math to say.

The main issue with Detroit would be their status. At 29, with a few lingering health concerns, I don't think Karlsson's going to be up for a rebuild.

If SJ performs well this year, my money's on them. I think as fans, we don't look at SJ the way players do. Some fans see an aging team, but I think players see a GM who continually puts his team in a position to win, year after year, a full decade after people first started talking about the window closing. Their window doesn't close, much like the Red Wing window of yesteryear.

 

[Gecklund]

I get San Jose doesn’t have the youngest core but their main players aren’t going to retire next year. They have Couture, Hertl, Meier, Labanc, Donskoi, Kane, etc in addition to Pavelski and Thornton. They have Burns, Vlasic, Dillon, Braun, Merkley, Karlsson at D. They have Jones and Dell in goal. They are set up for years. Just because a few of those guys are hitting 30-35 doesn’t mean they’re going to immediately hit a wall.

 

[Legend123]

I don't think you read the post you quoted...

I said if Ottawa doesn't gut it's team.

They already did dude

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Even then, still doubtful. TB has 13.5 mil in cap space next year. Brayden Point is RFA. He is going to get at least $6 million. Gourde is UFA, doubt they let him walk. Karlsson said he isnt taking a discount. San Jose will offer him at least $10.5 mil x 8 years. TB probably doesn't even have space to offer him $8 mil. Even if they did, the next year Callahan comes off the books but Vasilevskiy and Sergachev are RFAs. I just don't see how they can fit Karlsson in.

Totally agree with what you're saying here, Just don't see Karlsson being a fit in Tampa money wise.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Windows aren't a fallacy.

San Jose's core is old. It just is. Just look at how old they are next year when he needs to re-sign.

EK will play out the year and they'll go for the cup this year. He won't ask for a trade. When he hits the end of this year he will not sign an 8 yr extension with a core like SJ.

Tampa most likely or to Ottawa (his forever home) - if Melnyk sells the team and Alfredsson is part of the ownership group as rumoured - and if the Sens don't continue to trade away their stars like Stone & Duchene - otherwise Ottawa is out as well. Lots of things have to line up for him to even consider it IMO, but rumours are that they may indeed happen, so we will see...

You're wrong because you don't even know what their core is much less have the information to call them old. EK will re-sign in San Jose for 8 years, 12 million per. They will continue to compete like they have been since DW has become GM and people like you will eat crow or ignore the fact that they're wrong and just continue to call them old like they have the past 8 years.

 

[BigCanadian]

You're wrong because you don't even know what their core is much less have the information to call them old. EK will re-sign in San Jose for 8 years, 12 million per. They will continue to compete like they have been since DW has become GM and people like you will eat crow or ignore the fact that they're wrong and just continue to call them old like they have the past 8 years.

Perhaps. We will see. I am only stating my opinion, which is he won't sign in SJ long-term, because I see their window closing in a few years. Guess we will see.

 

[Seventyx7]

SJ is a gorgeous place, but I feel like he wants consistent chances at the cup. The sharks are damn good but are getting old, they have a small period before difficult choices imo. I hope they win one, but if they don’t I think Tampa is a big possibility.

Definitely not gorgeous..

But the Sharks window will probably remain open as it always annoyingly does. They have underrated young pieces and obviously gave up nothing of value to get EK.

 

[Taluss]

Definitely not gorgeous..

But the Sharks window will probably remain open as it always annoyingly does. They have underrated young pieces and obviously gave up nothing of value to get EK.

I’m from Ottawa so... anywhere in California with a hockey team is automatically gorgeous to me But agreed, however I feel these next few years are the big ones for them to jump on

 

[rent free]

You're wrong because you don't even know what their core is much less have the information to call them old. EK will re-sign in San Jose for 8 years, 12 million per. They will continue to compete like they have been since DW has become GM and people like you will eat crow or ignore the fact that they're wrong and just continue to call them old like they have the past 8 years.

...and you don't know the bolded.