Speculation: Erik Karlsson

BigCanadian

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Mar 7, 2007
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People said SJ was done then they went to a cup final. Vegas didn't even have a window and they went to a cup final. Sens were a goal away from a cup final then became the biggest mess in the league. Windows are kind of a fallacy. And EK is not going back to Ottawa.

Windows aren't a fallacy.

San Jose's core is old. It just is. Just look at how old they are next year when he needs to re-sign.

EK will play out the year and they'll go for the cup this year. He won't ask for a trade. When he hits the end of this year he will not sign an 8 yr extension with a core like SJ.

Tampa most likely or to Ottawa (his forever home) - if Melnyk sells the team and Alfredsson is part of the ownership group as rumoured - and if the Sens don't continue to trade away their stars like Stone & Duchene - otherwise Ottawa is out as well. Lots of things have to line up for him to even consider it IMO, but rumours are that they may indeed happen, so we will see...
 
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BillR10

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Nov 16, 2008
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He's signing in TB with his Swedish best friend Hedman. Sj will lose the trade as predicted as they got Karlsson for 1 year.

LOL, I always have to laugh at the "san jose will lose the trade" comments. If he walks, which I doubt he will the way DW spoke during the interviews, the sharks will have A LOT of money to go UFA fishing again. Either way they gave up nothing ground breaking to get him for a good shot at the cup. Theres 0 way the sharks lost the trade no matter what happens going forward.
 
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Lenerdosy

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Feb 23, 2015
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Well SJS can't give him 8 years until after the trade deadline so it'll be interesting to see if he gets past then at all. I guess it'll all come down to how much success he has right away. That team could be deadly and if he see's enough young guys coming up to keep the team competitive he could easily stay there.
 

Sens of Anarchy

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Jul 9, 2013
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my guess

San Jose

I think the Karlsson's will get comfortable there and wont want another move where they may or may not like it. Ottawa is out unless the mess is cleaned up and Alfredsson is part of the new group
 

danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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He's signing in TB with his Swedish best friend Hedman. Sj will lose the trade as predicted as they got Karlsson for 1 year.

The thing is, it's pretty hard to lose this kind of trade, even if EK walks. They gave up 6 B/C level pieces. Basically, slightly more than a TDL price.

The only way this trade causes the SJS a significant setback is if both EK walks, and whatever 1st Ottawa gets ends up being a top pick.
 

SensFactor

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Oct 25, 2008
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LOL, I always have to laugh at the "san jose will lose the trade" comments. If he walks, which I doubt he will the way DW spoke during the interviews, the sharks will have A LOT of money to go UFA fishing again. Either way they gave up nothing ground breaking to get him for a good shot at the cup. Theres 0 way the sharks lost the trade no matter what happens going forward.
Yah because losing a first round pick when you have an aging forward group is nothing ground breaking lol... Next year when Karlsson might be gone, thronton retires and you have a 35 year old Pavelski.. That first rounder in 2019 is pretty handy. Not to mention sharks gave up there other 2017 first rounder in Josh Norris also. Sens getting 6 assets including 2 first rounders is win for Sens especially for 1 year of karlsson.
 

SensFactor

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The thing is, it's pretty hard to lose this kind of trade, even if EK walks. They gave up 6 B/C level pieces. Basically, slightly more than a TDL price.

The only way this trade causes the SJS a significant setback is if both EK walks, and whatever 1st Ottawa gets ends up being a top pick.
He wasn't going to sign with the sens. If he extends with San Jose then hands down we lose the trade. If he walks and San Jose doesn't make the playoffs. Sens pick up 2 first round draft picks for 1 year Karlsson. How is that bad? They get Josh Norris (2017 first rounder) and sjs 2019 first rounder. Plus 5 other assets including a serviceable dman in Demelo and 3rd line center in Tierney both we needed anyways. Again for what I beleive will be one year of karlsson.
 

Nashology

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Dec 21, 2006
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My perspective on SJ is that their core is aging, and the prospect cupboards aren't as full as other teams. Karlsson signing there doesn't change their age.

Karlsson controls where he wants to go, and he might indeed like it there, and perhaps wants to sign in SJS for a short-term extension, but how will that team look in the latter part of a long-term extension?

Remember:
SJ = No 2019 1st , no 2020 1st. It is conceivable that there would be no 2021 1st as well, if he does indeed re-sign (and they make the cup final, otherwise no 2nd).
Player ages next year: Thornton (40), Pavelski (35), Burns (34), Braun (32), Vlasic (32), Couture (30), etc. Still some juice left for next year, maybe another year after that, but many of these players (the core) will be on the decline.

If he signs in SJ it is for a short-term extension IMO, but I still think even if he likes it there, he is much more likely to sign elsewhere after this year.

San Jose has NEVER relied on top end draft picks or prospects to win.

Why does this even matter? No team goes after bigger players than them?
 
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BillR10

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Nov 16, 2008
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Yah because losing a first round pick when you have an aging forward group is nothing ground breaking lol... Next year when Karlsson might be gone, thronton retires and you have a 35 year old Pavelski.. That first rounder in 2019 is pretty handy. Not to mention sharks gave up there other 2017 first rounder in Josh Norris also. Sens getting 6 assets including 2 first rounders is win for Sens especially for 1 year of karlsson.

Yeah because 1st round picks always pan out...... Alexander Daigle says hi from McDonalds. Norris is looking like a bust tbh. Hope he pans out for you but I wouldn't put faith on him being anything more than a 2nd liner at max if he makes it in which I honestly have my doubts on even when he was our prospect. So once again shot at a cup for no major game changing pieces (no guaranteed 1st liner). Also you realize the sharks looked pretty good last year without Thornton right? Or did you just not watch sharks games? DW and his scouts over in Europe have done a fantastic job finding talent for the sharks without needing picks so I'll happily put my faith in their abilities to add to the core of couture, kane, hertl, Meier, labanc, donskoi etc. I'm very excited to see what Suomela does this year. Then add the fact he would still have the money to add a piece off the market. Possibly Duchene.... I still think EK will reup with the sharks so it's a moot point.
 

BillR10

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Nov 16, 2008
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San Jose has NEVER relied on top end draft picks or prospects to win.

Why does this even matter? No team goes after bigger players than them?

Exactly. And to add on to this, the sharks have arguably the best D in the league now. None of the players on the sharks defense were drafted in the 1st round by the sharks. Only 3 of the sharks forwards out of the entire team were drafted by the sharks in the 1st round (Couture, Hertl, Meier).
 

SensFactor

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Yeah because 1st round picks always pan out...... Alexander Daigle says hi from McDonalds. Norris is looking like a bust tbh. Hope he pans out for you but I wouldn't put faith on him being anything more than a 2nd liner at max if he makes it in which I honestly have my doubts on even when he was our prospect. So once again shot at a cup for no major game changing pieces (no guaranteed 1st liner). Also you realize the sharks looked pretty good last year without Thornton right? Or did you just not watch sharks games? DW and his scouts over in Europe have done a fantastic job finding talent for the sharks without needing picks so I'll happily put my faith in their abilities to add to the core of couture, kane, hertl, Meier, labanc, donskoi etc. I'm very excited to see what Suomela does this year. Then add the fact he would still have the money to add a piece off the market. Possibly Duchene.... I still think EK will reup with the sharks so it's a moot point.
Only time will tell. Good luck
 

SensFactor

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San Jose has NEVER relied on top end draft picks or prospects to win.

Why does this even matter? No team goes after bigger players than them?
Evander Kane is a big player? He locker room cancer. Karlsson, as great as he is perceived, has had 2 serious ankle surgeries and is average at best defensively plus he will be 29 if he signs and sj is about to give him a 8 x 11 + plus million contract. I for one am happy he's gone. I just didn't like the return especially of he extends with sj.
 

HoweHullOrr

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Oct 3, 2013
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Norris is looking like a bust tbh.

People can read the article below for themselves.

Don't see info or comments suggesting he's a "bust".

Top 25 Sharks Under 25: No. 9 Josh Norris is right on track

His coach provided this info: This usage data also speaks to the trust that Norris has earned from (Michigan) Wolverines head coach Mel Pearson. From an interview with the Oakland Press in April: “I’m extremely happy with Josh, he’s a complete player, we play him in all situations, we play him on the power play, he kills penalties, he takes important face-offs, maybe the most important face-offs.”

Norris helped lead Michigan (Wolverines) to the Frozen Four this year and, while they were tragically eliminated at the hands of Notre Dame in a 4-3 loss on April 5, the kid’s usage tells us a lot about his role. Norris won 10 of 16 faceoffs, including the opening of three power plays and two penalty kills, and was on the ice in the final two minutes. Such an important role for a freshman is remarkable. Combined with his five points in five games for USA at the World Junior Summer Showcase in Kamloops this year (sharing a bench with future teammate and consonant hoarder Sasha Chmelevski), Norris’ year has been really promising.
 

justafan22

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Jun 22, 2014
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He can't re-sign with San Jose until after 3PM on February 28th, unless he takes a 7 year deal before hand, which I doubt he does.
 

justafan22

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Jun 22, 2014
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And FWIW, Friedman said that this summer in early july on 31 thoughts the podcast, the sens offered karlsson an 8 year 88 million dollar deal. He turned that down since his people thought "it was an offer just to say that we made an offer type deal"
 

danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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He wasn't going to sign with the sens. If he extends with San Jose then hands down we lose the trade. If he walks and San Jose doesn't make the playoffs. Sens pick up 2 first round draft picks for 1 year Karlsson. How is that bad? They get Josh Norris (2017 first rounder) and sjs 2019 first rounder. Plus 5 other assets including a serviceable dman in Demelo and 3rd line center in Tierney both we needed anyways. Again for what I beleive will be one year of karlsson.

I'm strictly talking from San Jose's perspective.

There's almost no way they lose the trade. Maybe a better way to put it is, there's almost no way this trade ends up poorly for them.

The only way the trade ends badly, like I said previously, is of the 1st in the trade ends up really high and Karl walks.

You bring up that their core is old, all the more reason for them to make this deal.

Either,

They just gave up 4-6 probable B/C level pieces for the best 1 year rental that's been on the market in a very long time. Effectively, this has increased their odds of winning before the older core expires.

Or, they just gave up 7 B/C level pieces to add a top 3 player in the NHL to their lineup for most of the next decade, thus rejuvenating this ageing core you brought up.
 
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