Erik Karlsson

[FlyTimmo]

Anderson carried that team to game 7. Karlsson had a good series, but that wasn't a team devoid of talent, Hoffman, Turris, Stone, Brassard, but Anderson's .922 S% kept them in every game. Two years before, Anderson and Hammond single handly carried that team into the playoffs.

Last year, Anderson finally showed his age with a .898% and Ottawa totally tanked.

Goalies and playoffs:
2018: Holtby .922, MAF .927, Hellebuyck .924, Vasilevskiy .918
2017: MAF/Murray .929, Rinne .930, Gibson .924, Anderson .922
2016: Murray .923, Jones .923, Elliott .921, Bishop/Vasilevskiy .933
2015: Crawford .924, Bishop .921, Lundqvist .928, Andersen .913
2014: Quick .911, Lundqvist .927, Price .919, Crawford .912
2013: Crawford .932, Rask .940, Quick .934, Vokoun .933

You can get to the Conference Finals with an average goal tender, but the odds are stacked against you.

I think EK is very good, but not generational.

Last five years EK, Hedman and Burns are neck to neck, and Klingberg and Hamilton just behind. And Doughty may be the best all around defenseman.
Krug, Burns and Keith are just behind him as playoff performers.
That is, EK certainly deserves consideration as the best D-man in the league, but the gap between him and the others in the top 5 isn't large.

I don't know how good Myers will end up, but the number of guys that size with legitimate skills is very, very small.
Burns, Weber and ???

You stats didn't really support your argument. In the entire playoffs among goalies who played 4+ games, he ranked 9th/18 in GAA and 10th/18 in SV%. Among the conference finalists he was the worst statistically.

You said that "Anderson carried that team to game 7", then said that "he kept them in every game". A team carrying goalie and a goalie that keeps a team in games are not the same thing. And like you said, "You can get to the Conference Finals with an average goal tender, but the odds are stacked against you." Andersson, with respect to other playoff goaltenders, was statistically average. But... you know how they over came those odds... Erik Karlsson.

He was among their best offensive players and had a similar P/60 to their best forwards. He had by far the best GS on OTT, a RelCF% of 7.07, RelxGF% of 4.34... all while playing huge minutes. And honestly, you can re-watch those games. He was dominant offensively, but still was their most effective defenseman defensively as well. Oh, but yeah... Karlsson totally has serious playoff limitations. You can say that Anderson was the biggest reason to their success, but I can't force you to be correct.

Whether he is generational or not, is totally subjective. Whether he is the best defenseman of this generation, is not. And if Myers becomes Burns, Weber or whoever, all those players are worse and not as special as EK.

 

[BernieParent]

In a vacuum, Karlsson would be a wonderful addition to the Flyers that would, IMHO, vault them to a higher tier of competitiveness. Being able to push Gostisbehere to second pairing would expand scoring depth significantly.

But we would have to consider that one of Sanheim or Myers (assuming Gostisbehere is off-limits) would go to Ottawa in the deal. As well as other valuable players / prospects. Then there is the matter of resigning Karlsson to a >$10 million contract. And finally having another ED around the corner puts even more pressure on protecting the available young talent this team currently controls. So as giddy as I get with the thought of the Flyers' top pairing being Provorov – Karlsson, the prospect of adding Karlsson at the expense of Sanheim (to Ottawa) + Myers (ED) + PROSPECT + 1st 2019, etc., isn't enticing.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

In a vacuum, Karlsson would be a wonderful addition to the Flyers that would, IMHO, vault them to a higher tier of competitiveness. Being able to push Gostisbehere to second pairing would expand scoring depth significantly.

But we would have to consider that one of Sanheim or Myers (assuming Gostisbehere is off-limits) would go to Ottawa in the deal. As well as other valuable players / prospects. Then there is the matter of resigning Karlsson to a >$10 million contract. And finally having another ED around the corner puts even more pressure on protecting the available young talent this team currently controls. So as giddy as I get with the thought of the Flyers' top pairing being Provorov – Karlsson, the prospect of adding Karlsson at the expense of Sanheim (to Ottawa) + Myers (ED) + PROSPECT + 1st 2019, etc., isn't enticing.

I concur. Especially considering Karlsson’s ankle/foot issues.

I wouldn’t be opposed to signing him if he becomes a UFA; I don’t think the risk of trading for him is worth it for this team.

 

[deadhead]

You stats didn't really support your argument. In the entire playoffs among goalies who played 4+ games, he ranked 9th/18 in GAA and 10th/18 in SV%. Among the conference finalists he was the worst statistically.

You said that "Anderson carried that team to game 7", then said that "he kept them in every game". A team carrying goalie and a goalie that keeps a team in games are not the same thing. And like you said, "You can get to the Conference Finals with an average goal tender, but the odds are stacked against you." Andersson, with respect to other playoff goaltenders, was statistically average. But... you know how they over came those odds... Erik Karlsson.

He was among their best offensive players and had a similar P/60 to their best forwards. He had by far the best GS on OTT, a RelCF% of 7.07, RelxGF% of 4.34... all while playing huge minutes. And honestly, you can re-watch those games. He was dominant offensively, but still was their most effective defenseman defensively as well. Oh, but yeah... Karlsson totally has serious playoff limitations. You can say that Anderson was the biggest reason to their success, but I can't force you to be correct.

Whether he is generational or not, is totally subjective. Whether he is the best defenseman of this generation, is not. And if Myers becomes Burns, Weber or whoever, all those players are worse and not as special as EK.

Anderson, with respect to the "survivors" was statistically average.
Boston, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3 (OT), 2, Mediocre series against the Rangers, but against the Penguins, 1, 1, 1, 3, 7, 1 , 3 (OT)
So Anderson basically won the Boston series, and gave them a great chance to beat the Penguins.

Karlsson might be the best current defenseman but it's not a big gap, there's a half dozen guys I'd be just as happy to have, and I think in three years 24 year old Provorov will be as good as 30 year old EK (better all around, not as good offensively). Same way three years ago 24 year old EK was as good as Keith and Doughty. I don't see this huge gap, EK is the best scorer but more inconsistent defensively than most of his peers (similar to Burns). If EK was 24 with a good ankle I'd pay him $11M for eight years, but at 29 in 2019-20, I'm not so sure. That's why I'd rather go with our kids and extend them as RFAs.

Burns is unusual as a late bloomer, peaking the last three years at age 30-32 (more evidence that some very big players mature late, along with Chara).
However, his 2015-16 playoff performance was just as impressive, 24g 7-17 24 +11, RelCF% 4.07, RelxGF% 2.19 , 24/10 GF/GA ratio, helping to carry them into the Stanley Cup finals.

Weber is a cut below, awfully consistent (top ten Norris votes 9 straight years, including 2, 2, 3, 4, 4), I'd think Myers upside is higher as a more skilled offensive player (upside, not expectation). But I wouldn't turn Weber down (but I wouldn't pay him $11M a year, either).

Funny thing about goalies, Allen puts up a .935%, St Louis only goes 6-5, yet they trade for Schenn as if they were one player away, then miss the playoffs when Allen has an offseason. Where bad goalies can deep six a season, a goalie having a career year or playoff can fool a front office into thinking the team is better than it really is.

 

[Curufinwe]

It's hilarious that people who post every day on a hockey board need to learn how good Erik Karlsson is.

Conservatively, he's a top 10 talent all time at the position. Realistically, more like top 3.

His ankle injury is a concern when you're talking about acquiring him for the next nine years.

 

[duffy9748]

Adding Karlsson just makes both PP units better if you have to move Ghost down. Unless you’re getting an upgrade at forward that will have a bigger impact than EK, I don’t see the reason to hesitate.

 

[Magua]

Those don't look like panthers.

You can't help him. He doesn't want a profile picture, and he doesn't want to embrace his potential shtick, like yours truly. It's a story of wasted potential.

And if Myers becomes Burns, Weber or whoever, all those players are worse and not as special as EK.

Myers has a ton of talent and physical tools, but I've often said his standout feature is his aggressiveness on top of it all. His confidence and willingness to push the pace is borderline crazy. I don't think he'll get the usage here, but there is an alternate reality in my mind where he's not over-coached and over-structured and keeps progressing in his development where he could be some Burns-lite type player. But again, this is not the organization to not over-coach and structure the sh*t out of him. Best case scenario is we get another Jay Bouwmeester on our roster.

 

[baudib1]

Karlsson takes Voracek's place on PP1.

 

[deadhead]

But again, this is not the organization to not over-coach and structure the sh*t out of him. Best case scenario is we get another Jay Bouwmeester on our roster.

Or may Bouwmeester was just a bad pick and a player with limited talent.

 

[Tripod]

I hope others don't come here and read:

Hamilton is just behind EK
Myers could be better than EK

The last 3 years, he has .935 pts/game. That's good for 18th in the entire league. Better than Ovi, Tavares, Kopitar, Hall, Barkov, etc...

 

[deadhead]

Except defensemen are actually supposed to play defense, EK isn't OEL, but he's not great on defense either.
So a defensemen who is plus defensively doesn't have to score like EK to have similar value.
There's more than one way to skin a cat.

Sorta the way Couts is underrated because the things he does other than scoring don't get a lot of recognition outside of the analytics community.
Pronger was a good but not a great offensive defenseman, but would you take EK over Pronger in his prime?
There are more ways to impact a hockey game than just scoring.

The league needs a Selke type award for defensemen.

 

[GingerBeards]

Just bc you have money doesn’t mean you spend it. I’m sure there are exactly 0% of wealthy people out that would go with that. Look at teams like the hawks. You have to dismantle your team to keep it afloat. They won cups so it’s worth it, but you don’t HAVE to have things go that way. Trade or let go players that are priced out and keep your picks to restock and let play with your stars. Like the pens. We will have enough talent to win a cup imo. Someone won’t workout as expected and there will be holes that you ID after a year or two of coming short. Then you trade or sign a guy like so many teams have done in Kessel, Hossa, Carter, Richards. Guys like Tavares and EK never become available, so you do it bc they are that good and you figure out the rest later, but it’s not so simple in my opinion.

Nashville of course has a great D but they split the top two pairs up and shelter the bottom pair. This would allow more pts for everyone. So far, that’s not good enough to win though. Even without EK we will have a very good bottom pair. A lot cheaper too.

If i ignore the money then that D looks amazing.

I don't agree with this assessment at all because it's simply not a valid comparison. We're talking about cap space here, you can't take it with you. You either spend it each year or you don't. It's not the same as keeping X amount of dollars in your account or spending it. A million dollars saved in the real world this year means you've got a million dollars in addition to whatever you make next year. In the NHL with a salary cap, saving cap dollars this year doesn't carry over to next year.

 

[GingerBeards]

Let's see Orr, Bourque, Lindstrom, Harvey, Robinson, Coffey, Chelios, nope, definitely not top 3.

Who's Lindstrom

 

[deadhead]

Problem is you don't sign a free agent to a 1-2 year contract in most cases (Hextall tried with Stastny).
So it's not whether you have cap room this year, it's whether you'll have cap room in 3-4 years.
And Hextall is very careful never to pay top dollar for out years (all his deals end at age 34).

That's why trading for a player with 1-2 years left is the most probable move that Hextall makes, and most likely it'll be a 3C.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The league needs a Selke type award for defensemen.

The voting and cliches for the Forward version aren’t bad enough? Can we at least have LD and RD versions so we can laugh at the writers that don’t know who plays which side?

 

[baudib1]

Let's be serious. Guys who played 40 years ago when goalies were awful, no one in the league could skate and the available player pool was 1/4 of today don't compare to superstars of today.

Chris Chelios in no way impacted the game as much as Karlsson does.

Karlsson maybe won't have the longevity/durability of Chelios/Lidstrom, but on a per-game basis, he's better, has more elite skills.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Let's be serious. Guys who played 40 years ago when goalies were awful, no one in the league could skate and the available player pool was 1/4 of today don't compare to superstars of today.

Chris Chelios in no way impacted the game as much as Karlsson does.

Karlsson maybe won't have the longevity/durability of Chelios/Lidstrom, but on a per-game basis, he's better, has more elite skills.

You reference Lidstrom as if he was a super old geezer. He won a Norris Trophy this decade. Karlsson might have more flash than Lidstrom ever had but, Lidstrom was still the better defenseman.

 

[bear3330]

I say we get him and make him a forward.

G - Coots - EK

 

[TheKingPin]

I don't agree with this assessment at all because it's simply not a valid comparison. We're talking about cap space here, you can't take it with you. You either spend it each year or you don't. It's not the same as keeping X amount of dollars in your account or spending it. A million dollars saved in the real world this year means you've got a million dollars in addition to whatever you make next year. In the NHL with a salary cap, saving cap dollars this year doesn't carry over to next year.

Right but you don’t just lose the space this year. You lose it for 7 years. It’s like buying a bigger house you don’t need.

Look at the jets. They just had one season of success. They are already making hard choices. Having to trade a good player away to keep a great one. That’s after getting several guys at bargains. And this only gets worse when some big name guys get big raises in the coming years. They haven’t won a thing. I’m sure they regret paying 30 yo Little 5.3 million a year for the next 5 years to score 15 goals. We have an expensive future. For the purpose of spending money bc you have it, I don’t see it.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Let's reexamine our depth on the right side.
Ghost playing on his offside
Hagg/Amac - fart noise
Gudas, who has only so many seasons of being able to keep up with the pace of current nhl
Myers - second pair upside? And that's if he hits.

Seems like there's only one righty who figures into teams plans long term and he is yet to play in nhl.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

The voting and cliches for the Forward version aren’t bad enough? Can we at least have LD and RD versions so we can laugh at the writers that don’t know who plays which side?

Wasn't the league like 4 times smaller too?

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Let's be serious. Guys who played 40 years ago when goalies were awful, no one in the league could skate and the available player pool was 1/4 of today don't compare to superstars of today.

Chris Chelios in no way impacted the game as much as Karlsson does.

Karlsson maybe won't have the longevity/durability of Chelios/Lidstrom, but on a per-game basis, he's better, has more elite skills.

He was a wonderful pp qb, but I don't know how his 5on5 scoring compares to Karlsson.

 

[mdm815]

Thoughts on EK; that ECF run they went on was truly something to behold. For 30 minutes a night they didn’t look like a playoff team, and for the 30 mins Karlsson was on the ice they looked like the best team in the game. It really was amazing to watch.

Thoughts on EK pertaining to the Flyers; we have a similar, poor mans version in Ghost. You’re getting 80% of EK’s offense with similar defense, and about 50% of the intangibly tangible effect on the pace of the game, at what will likely be around 37-40% of the caphit. I take the value bargain.

In conclusion, of course I’d love to watch him on the Flyers, but in the same way I’d love a Cadillac and went with a Mazda. Just gotta spend your dollars wisely.

 

[Tripod]

Except defensemen are actually supposed to play defense, EK isn't OEL, but he's not great on defense either.
So a defensemen who is plus defensively doesn't have to score like EK to have similar value.
There's more than one way to skin a cat.

Sorta the way Couts is underrated because the things he does other than scoring don't get a lot of recognition outside of the analytics community.
Pronger was a good but not a great offensive defenseman, but would you take EK over Pronger in his prime?
There are more ways to impact a hockey game than just scoring.

The league needs a Selke type award for defensemen.

No shit Sherlock. So then why mention Burns, Hamilton and Klingberg?

Only Doughty and Hedman are near/in his tier.

 

[Freddy The Fog]

You reference Lidstrom as if he was a super old geezer. He won a Norris Trophy this decade. Karlsson might have more flash than Lidstrom ever had but, Lidstrom was still the better defenseman.

Yeah. Guys who played 40 years ago like Orr and Park were crap compared to players now. And 30 years ago like Bourque and Potvin and Robinson have no business being compared to elite defense men today.

And Mark Howe for that matter. Could never be elite in today's league like Karlsson.