I think the Senators trade Karlsson to the Colorado Avalanche this summer. Here's why:
The Sens are most likely keeping the 4th overall pick this year, which means the Avs will own their "unprotected" 1st overall in 2019, with Jack Hughes in play. Why is this important? This influences any deal the Sens can make for Karlsson, if he intends to move on and not re-sign.
If the Sens trade Karlsson for picks and prospects (which is what they apparently want) and also get a team to take Ryan's contract off their hands, they are heading into the season with less talent than they have today, including their best player and captain. And, let's say they select Tkachuk, Boqvist or Bouchard at 4 - there is a good chance none of them play in the NHL next season.
This means the Sens are in bad shape, and have potential to be a lottery team, heading into a year where they don't own their own pick... with "the next Patrick Kane" up for grabs. That is, unless they workout a trade with Ottawa to resolve both of these issues in one swoop. If they trade Karlsson to the Avs, and part of the return is their 1st rounder in 2019, they:
1. Can take their time and rebuild, and if they are really bad they have a legit crack at a franchise-changing player in Jack Hughes
2. Can trade Karlsson for picks / prospects without worrying how it will screw them in 2019 (the Hughes pick)
Then it comes down to why the Colorado Avalanche are a good fit for Karlsson:
1. Karlsson is good friends with Avs captain, Gabe Landeskog
2. The Avs are under the cap floor and could pay Karlsson the money he wants long-term
3. The Avs have enough cap space to absorb Bobby Ryan's contract (which the Sens would love to parlay into a Karlsson deal)
4. The Avs are a playoff team, and have a bright young future and core, which is an attractive sell
5. The Avs currently have the Sens 1st rounder in 2019 and could package that with a top young D in Girard, Makar or Timmons
6. The Avs have Peter Forsberg to call on to pitch Karlsson on Denver and how much he enjoyed his time with the Avs
7. The Avs have Joe Sakic, who is very respected by NHL players, which makes it likely that Karlsson would at least "listen"
8. The Avs are out West, so the Sens would not need to worry about a Karlsson trade hurting them, or have to face him 4 times a year
I think, if Karlsson could be sold on Denver, this is a deal that could be a huge win-win for both Ottawa and Colorado.
The Sens draft Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Boqvist, Hughes or Bouchard at 4. Then add one of Girard, Makar, Timmins, plus their 1st rounder in 2019 which could very well be a crack at Jack Hughes. The 4th overall plus one of those D kids start a healthy rebuild process for Ottawa. If they happen to win the Jack Hughes lottery in 2019, their rebuild is expedited by A LOT. Moving Ryan's contract out gives them the money they need to comfortably re-sign Stone long-term. There could be another asset or two conditionally included IF / WHEN Karlsson signs long-term with the Avs.
From Colorado's perspective, they made the playoffs this season and currently feature one of the best lines in the NHL. They are an exciting team that is trending up, and with the addition of an elite player like Karlsson, they could rocket up in the West. If Karlsson isn't the best defenseman in the NHL, he's in the Top 3, and he's still in his prime at 27 years old. The Avs could potentially have an elite, Norris trophy winner for the next 7 years to play alongside MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen, Jost, etc.
The Avs are also suddenly loaded with 3 awesome, young D players in Girard, Makar and Timmins. Even if one is included in a Karlsson deal, they still have 2 others, as well as Tyson Barrie and Nikita Zadorov.
This also gives the Avs a ton of flexibility when it comes to Barrie and his role. If they feel Karlsson is a big upgrade over Barrie, they could move him, if they feel Girard can replace some of his minutes, or if Makar / Timmins is close to ready. There will be a healthy trade market for a RHD like Barrie. For arguments sake, could the Avs trade Barrie to Edmonton for Nugent-Hopkins or a top prospect like Puljujarvi+?
However, if the Avs want to keep Barrie with Karlsson on board, they now have 2 PP's that could inflict tons of punishment. And, let's consider the Preds D model of having 4 dynamic defensemen. Josi, Subban and Ellis are all very much offensive-minded, so there's no reason the Avs can't roll out Karlsson, Barrie, Johnson, Girard and Zadorov... and feature a very explosive back-end... especially with Makar / Timmins waiting in the wings.
I could see a deal like this...
TO COL
- Karlsson (w/ permission for the Avs to at least have preliminary discussions to gauge Karlsson's interest in Denver)
- Ryan
** IF KARLSSON DOES NOT SIGN WITH COLORADO
- 2020 2nd round pick
TO OTT
- The return of their 2019 1st rounder (could be lottery pick)
- Timmins
- Compher
** IF KARLSSON SIGNS WITH COLORADO
- 2020 1st round pick
And, while this deal might seem "underwhelming" for a player of Karlsson's caliber, we need to consider a couple of non-traditional components:
1. The Sens are also shedding Ryan's contract in the process, and freeing up a lot of cap dollars, which is a great asset in a cap NHL
2. The Sens now have the flexibility to rebuild "the right way" and will not need to make short-term decisions for 2018-19, so they don't gift the Avs a lottery pick. Now they can take their time, and if anything, increase their chances of landing Jack Hughes, or a top-3 pick in 2019.