Value of: Erik Cernak Offer sheet

JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
3,708
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Tampa, FL.
This is a point I have tried to make even moving Killorn there will not be enough Cap to sign those needing contracts. Allowing Segi or Cernak to sign a offersheet or trading them is unacceptable. Signing Cirelli at the expense of losing Killorn is not a good idea either. If Stamkos can stay healthy he can center that 2nd line so Cirelli is expendable as a RFA. The lone fix for the Cap would be to trade Kuch or Pointe or Stammer something the fans and team are not ok with.

Bridging the RFA's is just going to cause more issues in two years when Pointe needs a raise again as well as the bridge guys from this crop. The Cap is not scheduled to increase at all for at least two more years but realistically it is going to be 5 years for any significant increase. And that is if somehow this next season fans are allowed back into the arena.

And while winning the Cup this year would be a great thing breaking the bank right now is short sighted when you can extend the Cup window. If the league institutes a couple compliance buyouts it will help but then again teams will have to spend real dollars in a time where it is uncertain when they can return to profitability.

Currently the UK is considering shutting down the country again due to this virus, this will spread across the globe again. So it appears that these reports about a vaccine close is PooPoo. In fact one of the most promising vaccines was out of the UK.
Keeping Killorn over Cirelli is a giant mistake. One is a 30 year old winger who is a solid 2nd line guy, the other is a 22 year old rising 2C who is a fantastic 2 way player. Stamkos is no longer the 2C and he is about as injury prone as they come and is also 8 years older than Cirelli. Cirelli and Serg are guys you build around, not trade away. Cap will be flat this year and next, then with expansion and a new tv deal, there will be some increase most likely. It may be 3 years before we see a large increase but certainly not 5.
 

Flyer lurker

Registered User
Feb 16, 2019
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1)There should be 10 teams offering Cernak 4m 2nd round comp and let the chips fall where they may. Even if you have 3 ED D-men all ready, to give up a 2 for Cernak and to lose Cernak in ED is worth it 100 out of 100. I think TBL would retain but 4m of cap space doesn't kill offseason plans. As far as offering 5.5m a year and a 1 in a weak draft, I wouldn't but I see the logic if you think you are one top 4 d-man away from going places this year.
2)The Leafs would have to be out on A Piet to remotely consider this. They do not have the cap space to do this. Under no A Piet logic you have to trade AJ and one other 2m d man to make room.
 
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seanlinden

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Apr 28, 2009
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Here's an interesting question for Cernak...

He (like any FA) doesn't really "want" to get paid this year or next due to 20% and 18% escrow. He wants to get paid in years 3 & 4 when escrow is lower.

Now, let's say a team offers him a 5 year deal at $4.2m, buying up 1 year of unrestricted free agency. The deal gets structured $3m, $3m, $5m, $5m, $5m.

Tampa comes back with a 2 year deal at $2.75m per. Does he bet on himself getting more than $5m after another two years on a blueline with Hedman & McDonagh? or does he try to negotiate himself a 4 year deal, put $15m in the bank, and go right to UFA when presumably the league has a better financial outlook.

edit: Forgot about the expansion draft... I think that's probably a huge factor for whether he'll go for a 2-year deal at a lower AAV to stay in Tampa. Even though Vegas turned out great, I think players are still apprehensive to want to be drafted there.

I'd imagine Cernak seeks out a team with a veteran-laden blueline, where perhaps he figure's he's got a pretty good chance of being protected in the ED, and in a worst-case scenario, at least he's got the security of a 4-5 year deal and unrestricted free agency at 27-28.

Maybe a team like Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Arizona
 
Last edited:

Flyer lurker

Registered User
Feb 16, 2019
9,713
12,541
Here's an interesting question for Cernak...

He (like any FA) doesn't really "want" to get paid this year or next due to 20% and 18% escrow. He wants to get paid in years 3 & 4 when escrow is lower.

Now, let's say a team offers him a 5 year deal at $4.2m, buying up 1 year of unrestricted free agency. The deal gets structured $3m, $3m, $5m, $5m, $5m.

Tampa comes back with a 2 year deal at $2.75m per. Does he bet on himself getting more than $5m after another two years on a blueline with Hedman & McDonagh? or does he try to negotiate himself a 4 year deal, put $15m in the bank, and go right to UFA when presumably the league has a better financial outlook.

edit: Forgot about the expansion draft... I think that's probably a huge factor for whether he'll go for a 2-year deal at a lower AAV to stay in Tampa. Even though Vegas turned out great, I think players are still apprehensive to want to be drafted there.

I'd imagine Cernak seeks out a team with a veteran-laden blueline, where perhaps he figure's he's got a pretty good chance of being protected in the ED, and in a worst-case scenario, at least he's got the security of a 4-5 year deal and unrestricted free agency at 27-28.

Maybe a team like Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Arizona
Let me also add this will be VERY interesting when it comes to A Piet. TML's advantage over other teams has been the front loaded bonus. But how will have work with the escrow? Say 12 million up front escrow brings it down say 25% for bleeps and giggles. Does AP risk losing cash or pick Vegas and know about state free taxes.
 

Kalopsia

Registered User
Jun 25, 2018
730
1,059
I'd love it if the Caps offered him 5x4M. He'd be the perfect guy to pair with Orlov, and having to expose Siegenthaler and Jensen isn't a huge loss.
 

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