Here's an interesting question for Cernak...
He (like any FA) doesn't really "want" to get paid this year or next due to 20% and 18% escrow. He wants to get paid in years 3 & 4 when escrow is lower.
Now, let's say a team offers him a 5 year deal at $4.2m, buying up 1 year of unrestricted free agency. The deal gets structured $3m, $3m, $5m, $5m, $5m.
Tampa comes back with a 2 year deal at $2.75m per. Does he bet on himself getting more than $5m after another two years on a blueline with Hedman & McDonagh? or does he try to negotiate himself a 4 year deal, put $15m in the bank, and go right to UFA when presumably the league has a better financial outlook.
edit: Forgot about the expansion draft... I think that's probably a huge factor for whether he'll go for a 2-year deal at a lower AAV to stay in Tampa. Even though Vegas turned out great, I think players are still apprehensive to want to be drafted there.
I'd imagine Cernak seeks out a team with a veteran-laden blueline, where perhaps he figure's he's got a pretty good chance of being protected in the ED, and in a worst-case scenario, at least he's got the security of a 4-5 year deal and unrestricted free agency at 27-28.
Maybe a team like Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Arizona