Ellis contract and Jake Gardiner

[Gallagbi]

The benefit is that it doesn't push our performance bonuses to next year, it has nothing to do with Horton or his $5.3M.

If we're so close to the cap that we can get relief for Horton's LTIR placement, I believe we're too close to the cap to absorb the performance bonuses, which means we're left with a decision - Keep ourselves so far below this year's cap that the performance bonuses and Horton's contract both fit, or go right up to the cap to use Horton's LTIR relief (resulting in our performance bonuses being pushed to next year).
The former scenario results in a bunch of dead cap space this year, but the latter results in a much tighter squeeze next year when our RFAs are off their ELCs.

I think we're looking at this differently.

Seems like you're taking about being forced in to relief because we're maxed on cap. My thought it more of an isolated Horton issue, where he'll be injured and likely on LTIR no matter what because that situation doesn't hurt the Leafs. The remainder and rest of their cap is what does.

 

[Gallagbi]

In the Washington series he was very good - in the Boston(2013) he was NOT very good. Don't forget he cleared the puck right to Bergeron (nice hard pass is what it looked like) for the empty net behind a sprawling Reimer. Boston (2017-18) - well...we know how that was for Gardiner.

After being clearly the best D in that series and caught on for a long shift because of his partner and Grabovski's mistake. It's a real shame Franson turns the puck over 2-3x that shift instead of making the easy plays available. That's what causes the scramble.

 

[IBeL34f]

I think we're looking at this differently.

Seems like you're taking about being forced in to relief because we're maxed on cap. My thought it more of an isolated Horton issue, where he'll be injured and likely on LTIR no matter what because that situation doesn't hurt the Leafs. The remainder and rest of their cap is what does.

Horton's not on LTIR no matter what - My understanding is that he can only be placed on LTIR if cap relief is actually needed. If cap relief is needed, it means we've spent more than we're currently projected to (say we went out and signed Rick Nash, for example), and Horton would be placed on LTIR in order to free up the space required to ice our roster. But that automatically means that we don't have room this year to absorb the performance bonuses, which pushes them to next year, which would be very bad.

 

[93WrapAround]

He's already more defensively reliable.

A few miscues? Let's not minimize things. The guy is 28 years old with ~500 games to his name and still has massive holes in his game. I'm not looking forward to paying him $6m a year from age 29-35, especially when we have suitable replacement on the left hand side and massive gaps on the right side.

It really is rather comical to me. It boggles my mind how anyone would want to sign this guy for any significant $$. While he can be of value to another team, his style of game and recklessness simply hurts our team (not exactly defensive minded) too much to justify that kind of contract. Trade him for the most you can get, whether that's before the season starts, or after a nice run of games next season.

 

[Duke Silver]

Horton's not on LTIR no matter what - My understanding is that he can only be placed on LTIR if cap relief is actually needed. If cap relief is needed, it means we've spent more than we're currently projected to (say we went out and signed Rick Nash, for example), and Horton would be placed on LTIR in order to free up the space required to ice our roster. But that automatically means that we don't have room this year to absorb the performance bonuses, which pushes them to next year, which would be very bad.

This is correct. @Gallagbi: We need to be able to absorb 2018-19 rookie bonuses on this year's cap, and in order to do that Horton needs to remain off LTIR. He won't take up a spot on the 23-man roster, but will be a $5.3m hole in our cap.

 

[IBeL34f]

This is correct. @Gallagbi: We need to be able to absorb 2018-19 rookie bonuses on this year's cap, and in order to do that Horton needs to remain off LTIR. He won't take up a spot on the 23-man roster, but will be a $5.3m hole in our cap.

Thanks for the confirmation, Ron - I mean, Duke.

 

[Notsince67]

I'm looking at alot more than CF% but i understand i'm looking at the whole picture . Jake Gardiner Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

but to be a 100% honest im super bias because i don't like him and never have

Here is a primer on what matters. Unfortunately what matters is data that is not easily available without paying for it but there are some decent charts.
Transitional Playing Styles of NHL Defensemen
As far as CF% goes...WSH and Columbus Dmen have terrible CF% and are considered quite good. Shot attempt are not really very good for dmen but transitional plays are

 

[MagicalRazor]

Here is a primer on what matters. Unfortunately what matters is data that is not easily available without paying for it but there are some decent charts.
Transitional Playing Styles of NHL Defensemen
As far as CF% goes...WSH and Columbus Dmen have terrible CF% and are considered quite good. Shot attempt are not really very good for dmen but transitional plays are

thanks for the info bro resepct

 

[Gallagbi]

Horton's not on LTIR no matter what - My understanding is that he can only be placed on LTIR if cap relief is actually needed. If cap relief is needed, it means we've spent more than we're currently projected to (say we went out and signed Rick Nash, for example), and Horton would be placed on LTIR in order to free up the space required to ice our roster. But that automatically means that we don't have room this year to absorb the performance bonuses, which pushes them to next year, which would be very bad.

Fair enough, I appreciate the correct/explanation.

 

[Stephen]

People be going off but I don't think the Ellis deal is a good deal at all.

6.25 on maximum term for a guy who, aside from this injury shortened year, is a 35 point guy, plays the 3rd most PK minutes and is their fourth best D?

Is it because he shoots right and PKs, because that's maybe worth an extra mil five per year. He's worth max 5.5, or this money on a six year term.

Jake defends like a bantam league player at times and doesn't even PK but at least he puts up points. He is worth 6 but I wouldn't go above that, and I think he'll get offers for 6.5+ on the market.

Just goes to show what the market will yield for puck moving defensemen. There's a real dearth of them in the game right now and without them, it hurts the transition game.

 

[Leafsman]

I'm fully aware that my memory isn't exactly what it used to be, but wasn't he one of our best defensemen in the Playoffs in 2013 (Boston) and 2017 (Washington)?

He's been one of our better D in every playoffs he's had. Don't let a bad game 7 wipe out his strong performances in other must-win games. He was our best D in the first B's series and he/Rielly were great last year. Even this year he and Rielly were our best D throughout the series.

Like I said, he was awesome for the most part of the series but underwhelmed at the most important moments.

If you're awesome for 5 games but blow it in an elimination game 6, or are awesome for 6 games and blow it in game 7. Then how effective are you really? These were 1st round playoffs. What happens when they get deeper in the playoffs and he starts choking in game 3 or 4.

I'm a big Gardiner fan, but I'm not touting him at a great top-pairing dman anymore. He's a 2nd pairing guy that you should likely not rely on in important defensive moments.

He should be signing long-term <$6M, and likely closer to the $5.5M. .

 

[Terrible GM]

If Jake was willing to sign under 6 mill, I would do it with the intention of moving on from him in a couple years. I think Dermott is able to play better defensive minutes now, but it helps out cap if you keep Dermott buried for a couple years. I'd give Jake a 5 or 6 year deal with a NMC for the last couple years. The Leafs then move him after Dermott hits RFA in 2 years. The team you are trading with gets a player for a few years control (3 or 4), and we get assets that we can use in a few years when we have to purge players due to cap constraints.

 

[luvdahattymatty]

Stick to facts. Game 4 against Bruins we were controlling until Gards pinched and did not take either the puck or the man. Bottom line that was a novice level move not a play by an nhl defenceman in a tie game. Was it a brain fart? was he scared to take the man? or was it he just does not know what to do because he is not trained as a defenceman? Watch the video (ive seen it posted on here a lot) it would have been very very easy for him to hit the Boston forward and take him out. The play dies there no 2 on 1. Bottom line is no one really knows what is going through his head if anything. His coaches dont know, his teammates dont know and the fans dont know. Why? Because most of us by age of peewee hockey know the core fundamentals of how to play defence. Now some guys know the fundamentals but are scared to play physically and we all have had them on one of our teams. But those guys are usually scoring wingers and we all tell them look you put the puck in the net for us and you are ok on this team. guys like kessel etc. But you cant play defence and be scared. I do not know if that is case with Gards. But at his age it is too late for anyone to change him so my vote is to get him out of town and fast. Let him screw up playoffs for another team. And game 7 oh god he was worse. If he is kept by Leafs i guarantee you he will get booed loudly by us season ticket holders when he makes his HUGE mistakes. So best to get an asset for him now before his trade value really drops.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

I really like gardiner but not for 6-6.5
If we can resign him cheaper then that keep him otherwise trade him.

 

[mulefarm]

If you are determined to boo him for mistakes , will you cheer and recognize is great plays?

 

[Gallagbi]

Like I said, he was awesome for the most part of the series but underwhelmed at the most important moments.

If you're awesome for 5 games but blow it in an elimination game 6, or are awesome for 6 games and blow it in game 7. Then how effective are you really? These were 1st round playoffs. What happens when they get deeper in the playoffs and he starts choking in game 3 or 4.

My point is more the fact he's played extremely well in important games, so he's not scared of the spotlight.

I'd also question how much he choked vs. was victimized by bad goaltending this year.

Hes not perfect and will make his share of mistakes, but let's not pretend he's a constant hazard who stumbles in every important game.

 

[Leafsman]

My point is more the fact he's played extremely well in important games, so he's not scared of the spotlight.

I'd also question how much he choked vs. was victimized by bad goaltending this year.

Hes not perfect and will make his share of mistakes, but let's not pretend he's a constant hazard who stumbles in every important game.

You're right, but let's also not pretend he hasn't ever stumbled. He's made far too many mistakes and he's now 28. We're saying the same things about a 28 year old Gardiner that we were saying about a 23 year old Gardiner, and 24, and 25, etc. I've been a Gardiner apologist for too long. He is what he is, and I don't see him eliminating these mental gaffs from his game.

The crazy thing is, I am a big fan and have always been a Gardiner defender but he isn't a top pairing guy or he'd have proven that by now. He'll put up good offensive numbers on a high-calibre offensive team. He'll come up with some great defensive plays, but he'll make mistakes that rookies shouldn't be making and I don't find him a go-to guy.

This is a Stanley cup team, if our goal was to make the playoffs like in the past then Gardiner is a little more valuable. But I don't think Gardiner is the guy you want to be depending on in a grueling conference final or hopefully the Stanley Cup playoffs.

He's a middle pairing, PP guy and shouldn't be getting more than $5.5M/5-6years.

 

[IBeL34f]

You're right, but let's also not pretend he hasn't ever stumbled. He's made far too many mistakes and he's now 28. We're saying the same things about a 28 year old Gardiner that we were saying about a 23 year old Gardiner, and 24, and 25, etc. I've been a Gardiner apologist for too long. He is what he is, and I don't see him eliminating these mental gaffs from his game.

The crazy thing is, I am a big fan and have always been a Gardiner defender but he isn't a top pairing guy or he'd have proven that by now. He'll put up good offensive numbers on a high-calibre offensive team. He'll come up with some great defensive plays, but he'll make mistakes that rookies shouldn't be making and I don't find him a go-to guy.

This is a Stanley cup team, if our goal was to make the playoffs like in the past then Gardiner is a little more valuable. But I don't think Gardiner is the guy you want to be depending on in a grueling conference final or hopefully the Stanley Cup playoffs.

He's a middle pairing, PP guy and shouldn't be getting more than $5.5M/5-6years.

Obviously no one's pretending he's never stumbled. Like you said, he is what he is, but what he is is a very positive difference-maker on the ice, even despite the warts, and with players that tilt the ice, you sometimes have to take the good with the bad. The beauty of it, though, is that he doesn't have to be the go-to guy on our blueline with Rielly here, and that will become even truer as guys like Zaitsev, Dermott, and Liljegren continue to develop.

I'd be a huge fan of a $5.5M deal for 5 or 6 years - I don't think his warts are worth giving up on him over an extra half-million, though.

(And, as always, I'm still 100% open to the idea of using him to target a guy like Spurgeon.)

 

[56 Years No Cup]

Stick to facts. Game 4 against Bruins we were controlling until Gards pinched and did not take either the puck or the man. Bottom line that was a novice level move not a play by an nhl defenceman in a tie game. Was it a brain fart? was he scared to take the man? or was it he just does not know what to do because he is not trained as a defenceman? Watch the video (ive seen it posted on here a lot) it would have been very very easy for him to hit the Boston forward and take him out. The play dies there no 2 on 1. Bottom line is no one really knows what is going through his head if anything. His coaches dont know, his teammates dont know and the fans dont know. Why? Because most of us by age of peewee hockey know the core fundamentals of how to play defence. Now some guys know the fundamentals but are scared to play physically and we all have had them on one of our teams. But those guys are usually scoring wingers and we all tell them look you put the puck in the net for us and you are ok on this team. guys like kessel etc. But you cant play defence and be scared. I do not know if that is case with Gards. But at his age it is too late for anyone to change him so my vote is to get him out of town and fast. Let him screw up playoffs for another team. And game 7 oh god he was worse. If he is kept by Leafs i guarantee you he will get booed loudly by us season ticket holders when he makes his HUGE mistakes. So best to get an asset for him now before his trade value really drops.

Excellent post. The game is played on the ice not on a stat sheet.

 

[pulfordfan]

I'd be surprise if Gards signs for less then 6 mill, just looking at what a 50 point d man can ask for, I hope they sign him, the alternative is bring in another whipping boy that some members can hang on too. Seems that role is endless and somehow needed for some guys here.

 

[Battle Lin]

dermott and liljegren's play this coming season will play a big role in if we bring gardiner back too, dermott should improve even more and imo liljegren will have a good year in the A...maybe they believe its rielly and dermott on left side and liljegren and zaitsev on right side moving forward

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

It's imperative they either re-sign him or trade him. None of this walking at the end of the year business

But we are competitive now! Don't you know letting FA walk for nothing is what competitive teams do? Or at least that's what I've been told.

 

[meefer]

Gardiner is a wonderfully talented, offensively gifted hockey player who makes some of the most boneheaded defensive plays, it's so frustrating to watch. However, while many here suggest our lh D is in good shape with Rielly, Gardiner and Dermott (and a growing group in below) I'm less convinced that we can allow Gardiner to leave without having a better idea of who Dermott is. Like most here, I too was impressed with Dermott's play this year and am excited about his future. However, he played highly sheltered minutes and we have no idea if this 35/8 game veteran has developed to the point where he can step in and replace Gards as the lh 2D. That's why in the 'dream line' thread I suggested throwing Dermott onto the 1st pair with Rielly (and for that matter why I threw Nylander in the 3 C spot with Kadri moving to Matthews wing...I want to get an idea if Nylander can do it). We've got training camp and exhibition games to get a better idea of how Dermott is developing. You could argue throwing him at 2 D and moving Gards up to the 1st with Rielly playing the right side. I'm fine with either. But I want to know that Dermott is capable of playing tougher minutes against better competition before I make a move on Gards, be it a new contract or a trade. Throughout the season Gardiner tilts the ice in our favor. Can Dermott do the same? If he can't and we were to move Gardiner before we found out, my goodness would we be farcked! We have until the TDL to determine how much higher Dermott can play in the line up, I'd be giving him every chance to prove he's worthy. Until then, we can use the time to discuss with Gardiner's camp what his expectations are and compare it to the results he's showing. I don't want to throw Dermott into a position where he's not ready to succeed. While it's a risk to wait on Gardiner, I'd argue it's a bigger risk to expose our D by trading him before Dermott is ready to move up. We have time, let's use it.

 

[Dayjobdave]

Jake is such a talented player with an incredible ability to make plays rivalled only by his ability to make the fans’ collective heads explode.

It will be fascinating to see what the the mgmt does with him this year. I believe the forwards are better defensively this year, but I wonder if Jake fits in the plan going forward.

I do think the market will give him Ellis money.

 

[Trapper]

I don't know what the long range plan for Gardiner is.
How much do you want to see him paid? How much of the Cap do you think he is worth taking up?
The 5 million range is where I would say enough. I wouldn't be going in the 6 range or too much more than Rielly.
If he is not in the plans, I'd be looking for a Gardiner/Brodin type swap. One team might want more offense that Gardiner brings while we are fine with a more consistent D. Plus Brodin is signed until 2021 at a cap hit of 4.16 million.
Again, not sure of the plan but that's what I'd look at vs. risk walking for nothing.