Speculation: Ellis’ upcoming contract

[Armourboy]

Watson

He was part of the Bonino line.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Quite a lot of "interesting" replies from non-Preds fans here, but I think you'll find that we are not the least bit concerned about our lineup at C... Johansen has looked like a very good #1C whenever it mattered. We'll be hoping he picks up the consistency in the regular season, and seeing him when he's "on" I think we have a fair bit of optimism on that front. But if he doesn't, no biggie. He's totally fine as a #1C. Turris by contrast vanished at the wrong time, but he has a good track record, so we can be patient. Bonino is a perfect #3C. And then Sissons would be a fine 3C too. Still have Jarnkrok in the mix who could also play 3C. It's definitely not an area we give any thought to.

Anyway, I hope the Preds play it hardball with Ellis. He's not a player I would worry about losing to free agency. Another team can try him out if they like, he's probably a good #3D for most teams, even if he's #4D for us right now.

 

[The Ugly Truth]

Watson

Always a playoff beast. Will he be back this year?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Seeing all the details of the Dumba contract, I think that would be a good upper limit comparable for Ellis. It has a little NTC part way through, but no special bonuses or NMC. $6M would be a player-friendly deal for what Ellis has done to date IMO.

 

[The Ugly Truth]

Quite a lot of "interesting" replies from non-Preds fans here, but I think you'll find that we are not the least bit concerned about our lineup at C... Johansen has looked like a very good #1C whenever it mattered. We'll be hoping he picks up the consistency in the regular season, and seeing him when he's "on" I think we have a fair bit of optimism on that front. But if he doesn't, no biggie. He's totally fine as a #1C. Turris by contrast vanished at the wrong time, but he has a good track record, so we can be patient. Bonino is a perfect #3C. And then Sissons would be a fine 3C too. Still have Jarnkrok in the mix who could also play 3C. It's definitely not an area we give any thought to.

Anyway, I hope the Preds play it hardball with Ellis. He's not a player I would worry about losing to free agency. Another team can try him out if they like, he's probably a good #3D for most teams, even if he's #4D for us right now.

Agree with you on Ellis. I think they should sell high on him now.

I don't trust Turris, which is why I think the RNH deal makes sense. It would have been nice to swindle Bergevin out of Galchenyuk, but that's a whole other matter...

Johansen
RNH
Bonino
Sissons/Jarnkrok etc. higher only in case of injury.

The Turris deal may have been a big mistake. Girard instead of Ellis - especially if he could play RD and using the Ellis + Turris money on RNH + another proven forward probably would've been money better spent. 20/20 hindsight.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

Agree with you on Ellis. I think they should sell high on him now.

I don't trust Turris, which is why I think the RNH deal makes sense. It would have been nice to swindle Bergevin out of Galchenyuk, but that's a whole other matter...

Johansen
RNH
Bonino
Sissons/Jarnkrok etc. higher only in case of injury.

The Turris deal may have been a big mistake. Girard instead of Ellis - especially if he could play RD and using the Ellis + Turris money on RNH + another proven forward probably would've been money better spent. 20/20 hindsight.

Girard is not at all ready to play in the top 4 on a contending team. So again, center is a wash at best and defense is massively downgraded. Sure, they have more cap space, a little more than the 9 million+ they currently have, but they're a team that is competing for the cup right now, that is clearly worse. Makes zero sense.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Well, Turris made me worried too, but Sens fans have a lot of good things to say about him. So I don't know. I'd definitely trade Turris for RNH if that was the option. But I don't see a big motivation to go out and improve our situation at C using other kinds of assets.

If I could trade Ellis for RNH and then trade Turris for a good expansion-exempt 2nd pairing RD I wanted, ok, I'd be ready to consider that! Although we also hope that Fabbro is that expansion-exempt 2nd pairing RD. But that's just playing around, not something we have a big motivation to chase after since Ellis is already a bit of a luxury at #4D and Turris really should be fine as #2C going on his past history.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

I'd definitely trade Turris for RNH if that was the option.

Why? What has Nugent-Hopkins ever done at center to show he's any better than Turris? You're letting last year's playoffs cloud your judgement, believe me, RNH was every bit as bad in 16-17 as Turris was last year. At least Turris has done some positive things in the playoffs in his career.

 

[triggrman]

Yeah, I'd take Turris over RNH

 

[The Ugly Truth]

ArE yOu SeRiOuS? Did you watch the only 13 games RNH has ever played in the postseason in 16-17? Where he was terrible and got pushed around the entire time? At least Turris has a couple of good playoff runs in his career and is over .5 ppg career in the postseason. RNH put up good numbers on McDavid's wing last year, as everyone would, but he's never shown to be any better than Turris when playing center. You're way off here.

Let's just say your premise is correct and Hopkins is slightly better than Turris. Now you have theoretically very slightly upgraded 2C, upgraded 3C a decent amount and MASSIVELY downgraded 2RD. You go from 22+ minutes each night from Ellis to Yannick Weber in the top 4. Again, how does this help Nashville?

O RLY? R U SRS ?


Try again. RNH is no longer 150 pound rookie RNH.

He's playing wing with McDavid out of desperation by the Oilers because he's one of the only Oilers forwards that's smart enough and fast enough to play with McDavid.

I can't believe you would have the balls to come on here and say "he's never shown to be any better than Turris when playing center" with a straight face. Do you really believe that?

Johansen/RNH/Bonino-Turris is a solid middle.

Ellis missed most of the season last year and the Predators were fine.

Ekholm - Subban
Josi - X

can still be one of the league's best top 4.

If the Predators really wanted to solidify that top 4 guys like Myers are always available. Or maybe they could go all in and trade Turris for Karlsson!

 

[The Ugly Truth]

Seeing all the details of the Dumba contract, I think that would be a good upper limit comparable for Ellis. It has a little NTC part way through, but no special bonuses or NMC. $6M would be a player-friendly deal for what Ellis has done to date IMO.

I think Dumba is going to be a much better value than Ellis going forward. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ellis's game regress.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Why? What has Nugent-Hopkins ever done at center to show he's any better than Turris? You're letting last year's playoffs cloud your judgement, believe me, RNH was every bit as bad in 16-17 as Turris was last year. At least Turris has done some positive things in the playoffs in his career.

Yup, I'm letting last year's playoffs... affect my judgement... anyway. I don't know if it's "cloud". I hope it is!!! But dayumn, he was sooooo bad in the playoffs that it has definitely put me on edge. I like RNH. I used to like Turris. As abstract players on other teams that I never paid a lot of attention to, admittedly. But yeah, Turris' total - and I have to emphasize TOTAL - disappearing act in these last playoffs definitely has me looking askance at him.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

O RLY? R U SRS ?


Try again. RNH is no longer 150 pound rookie RNH.

He's playing wing with McDavid out of desperation by the Oilers because he's one of the only Oilers forwards that's smart enough and fast enough to play with McDavid.

I can't believe you would have the balls to come on here and say "he's never shown to be any better than Turris when playing center" with a straight face. Do you really believe that?

Johansen/RNH/Bonino-Turris is a solid middle.

Ellis missed most of the season last year and the Predators were fine.

Ekholm - Subban
Josi - X

can still be one of the league's best top 4.

If the Predators really wanted to solidify that top 4 guys like Myers are always available. Or maybe they could go all in and trade Turris for Karlsson!

Please, let's hear your argument why he of the 56 point career high, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, is sooooooo much better than Kyle Turris. Can't wait.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think Dumba is going to be a much better value than Ellis going forward. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ellis's game regress.

Well, let's see Ellis' new contract first, anyway, in terms of "value". But color me surprised if Dumba isn't better over the next 5 years. Dumba has a lot of raw physical talent, but of course has always been questioned just on his on-ice IQ at times. Ellis is a bit anti-Dumba in that sense as it's not exactly clear what his physical skills are, but he gets a good result so let's maybe put that down to IQ. Like I said, I would take Dumba over Ellis on that same Dumba contract, so my stake is in the ground. I think they are good comparables as player-assets, even if they are quite different on the ice!

 

[The Ugly Truth]

Girard is not at all ready to play in the top 4 on a contending team. So again, center is a wash at best and defense is massively downgraded. Sure, they have more cap space, a little more than the 9 million+ they currently have, but they're a team that is competing for the cup right now, that is clearly worse. Makes zero sense.

How about this:

Forsberg - Johansen - Arvidsson
Fiala - RNH - Smith
Tolvanen - Bonino - Hartman
Sissons - Jarnkrok - Watson

Ekholm - Karlsson
Josi - Subban
Girard - Weber

Rinne
Saros

 

[Chairman Maouth]

This isn't a McDavid or RNH thread. Please stay on topic.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

How about this:

Forsberg - Johansen - Arvidsson
Fiala - RNH - Smith
Tolvanen - Bonino - Hartman
Sissons - Jarnkrok - Watson

Ekholm - Karlsson
Josi - Subban
Girard - Weber

Rinne
Saros

I take it Ottawa is gifting Karlsson to Nashville? In that case, sign me up, I guess. In reality, the Preds don't have the assets for Karlsson without including Tolvanen at least.

I don't think a late 1st and Fabbro are going to move that needle too far.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Anyway, I hope the Preds play it hardball with Ellis. He's not a player I would worry about losing to free agency. Another team can try him out if they like, he's probably a good #3D for most teams, even if he's #4D for us right now.

See I will be upset if we just let him walk in free agency. You don't let a player just walk when you can trade him for someone who could help us. You can say we need him this year and I get he tore it up when he came back but we was doing pretty good without him. I would also play hardball and not give a nmc. And if I give him a ntc he'll have to take a discount of 5 million a year. If he wants 7 like most people are saying I would package him with something to upgrade our top 6

 

[The Ugly Truth]

Well, Turris made me worried too, but Sens fans have a lot of good things to say about him. So I don't know. I'd definitely trade Turris for RNH if that was the option. But I don't see a big motivation to go out and improve our situation at C using other kinds of assets.

If I could trade Ellis for RNH and then trade Turris for a good expansion-exempt 2nd pairing RD I wanted, ok, I'd be ready to consider that! Although we also hope that Fabbro is that expansion-exempt 2nd pairing RD. But that's just playing around, not something we have a big motivation to chase after since Ellis is already a bit of a luxury at #4D and Turris really should be fine as #2C going on his past history.

I think Ellis for RNH, and Turris for Niku + (Copp? High draft pick?) and use the savings to go after Karksson might be reasonable moves for all teams + players.

Edmonton gets their D
Nashville gets their 2C
Winnipeg gets their 2C
Nashville gets a cheap ELC D who may be able to step in and play (off side) RD with Josi this year, but if not, an older RD could also be picked up separately.
Nashville saves money by not signing Ellis.
Nashville uses the savings to go after Karlsson.

Win-Win
Win-Win

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

See I will be upset if we just let him walk in free agency. You don't let a player just walk when you can trade him for someone who could help us. You can say we need him this year and I get he tore it up when he came back but we was doing pretty good without him. I would also play hardball and not give a nmc. And if I give him a ntc he'll have to take a discount of 5 million a year. If he wants 7 like most people are saying I would package him with something to upgrade our top 6

End of the day I think we are just bored and tying ourselves up in speculative knots as a result. Ellis will sign for a reasonable $5.5M long-term deal, with no NMC, because he loves it in Nashville, and all of our hand-wringing goes for naught.

Well until the summer of 2020. Then we have to deal with the expansion stuff. We don't have a lot to worry about in the meantime, however, so it's understandable that when we're this bored we reach a little further than usaul.

 

[The Ugly Truth]

Well, let's see Ellis' new contract first, anyway, in terms of "value". But color me surprised if Dumba isn't better over the next 5 years. Dumba has a lot of raw physical talent, but of course has always been questioned just on his on-ice IQ at times. Ellis is a bit anti-Dumba in that sense as it's not exactly clear what his physical skills are, but he gets a good result so let's maybe put that down to IQ. Like I said, I would take Dumba over Ellis on that same Dumba contract, so my stake is in the ground. I think they are good comparables as player-assets, even if they are quite different on the ice!

If Dumba keeps progressing he may end up being almost a mini-PK Subban. Great young defenseman (he better be, since he cost the Minesota Alex Tuch).

 

[GeauxPreds1]

End of the day I think we are just bored and tying ourselves up in speculative knots as a result. Ellis will sign for a reasonable $5.5M long-term deal, with no NMC, because he loves it in Nashville, and all of our hand-wringing goes for naught.

Well until the summer of 2020. Then we have to deal with the expansion stuff. We don't have a lot to worry about in the meantime, however, so it's understandable that when we're this bored we reach a little further than usaul.

I hope you're right with 5.5 million.

 

[The Ugly Truth]

I take it Ottawa is gifting Karlsson to Nashville? In that case, sign me up, I guess. In reality, the Preds don't have the assets for Karlsson without including Tolvanen at least.

I don't think a late 1st and Fabbro are going to move that needle too far.

In that scenario (the lineup of the 2019 Stanley Cup champions) Turris + would have to be used to get Karlsson.

I think people are going to be surprised at how low the return is for Karlsson. Cheap owner, incompetent GM, player who is a soon to be a free agent and who clearly does not want to return, crappy team, bizzarre locker room dramas. I expect GMs around the league will lowball Dorion.

If Nashville is going to keep Turris they could offer Ottawa Ellis, a 1st and a prospect for Karlsson.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

In that scenario (the lineup of the 2019 Stanley Cup champions) Turris + would have to be used to get Karlsson.

I think people are going to be surprised at how low the return is for Karlsson. Cheap owner, incompetent GM, player who is a soon to be a free agent and who clearly does not want to return, crappy team, bizzarre locker room dramas. I expect GMs around the league will lowball Dorion.

If Nashville is going to keep Turris they could offer Ottawa Ellis, a 1st and a prospect for Karlsson.

Even in this scenario, though, while Karlsson is an obvious upgrade on Ellis, giving up a 1st, a prospect, and the weirdness that ensues with the team dynamic seems a bit of a stretch. Just sign Ellis on a sensible deal, that's really all the Preds need, they don't need any fireworks like a crazy Karlsson add.

And anyway, I can't imagine their 1st and prospect are going to come remotely close to what any other team offers along the same lines. Nor would Ellis sign in Ottawa, so what's the point for them.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Not Top 15 player in his position good.

That said, Chytil and Andersson are both better prospects than Bear and/or Bouchard.

I like Bouchard more than Andersson. I think he’s equal to Chytil