News Article: Eliteprospects Rinkside: Fantalytica ranks Leafs prospects based on projected fantasy totals

[Lovonov]

Check this out guys. FANTALYTICA: The best Toronto Maple Leafs’ prospects today, from...

This is my new startup, which will have a tool for fantasy dynasty owners with a way to evaluate prospects based on how many fantasy points they will get based on the relative league settings.

Would love to hear feedback on this article and/or Fantalytica in general.

Click to read more...

 

[SoCal Leafs]

Thanks for sharing. Very nice content and analysis. How closely does your predictive model fit when looking retrospectively at young players who are now at 200+ games of NHL experience?

Keep up the good work and best of luck with this endeavour!

 

[Lovonov]

Thanks for sharing. Very nice content and analysis. How closely does your predictive model fit when looking retrospectively at young players who are now at 200+ games of NHL experience?

Keep up the good work and best of luck with this endeavour!

 

[jrgtml67]

Mac Hollow is tearing it up in the Sioux this year hes a D and believe 2nf or 3rd on his club in points. Durzi had some weird injury that owen sound still hasn't commented on..hes back now and doing ok. Sanding is the clear guy to come up first on D this or next year. Bracco may get his shot if we decide to move Johnsson or Kapenen for RHD help. My sleeper who isn't on that list is Mason Marchment. Doing well with Marlies and missed camp due to injury. A lot of us liked Clarke at camp, so imagine him but bigger body and more offense and you get Marchment.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I don't understand the relationship between Draft Day value and Current value. The description of Draft Day value makes it look like it's derivative of the current value, but the relationship between those changes for different prospects, and the draft day value is higher for a couple of late second round picks than for the 1st round picks in the same drafts (the highest of which was a top 10 pick by most expectations and valuations at the time) so if the draft day value isn't derivative of the current value it definitely seems way off

 

[Finnish your Czech]

How were you able to include hits and shots blocked into the tool when some leagues don't report the number of hits and blocked shots in a game? Unless you have access to information that the public doesn't have access to.

 

[Lovonov]

I don't understand the relationship between Draft Day value and Current value. The description of Draft Day value makes it look like it's derivative of the current value, but the relationship between those changes for different prospects, and the draft day value is higher for a couple of late second round picks than for the 1st round picks in the same drafts (the highest of which was a top 10 pick by most expectations and valuations at the time) so if the draft day value isn't derivative of the current value it definitely seems way off

Current value is what they are currently valued at. Draft day value is a value that goes back in time and takes the value we had for the player on draft day, at that specific age. Its mostly useful for players who are 25, 26, in the NHL - to see where they were projected by us back when he was 18/19. It uses the same formula to quantify it - its just using draft year stats with draft year age.

 

[Lovonov]

How were you able to include hits and shots blocked into the tool when some leagues don't report the number of hits and blocked shots in a game? Unless you have access to information that the public doesn't have access to.

Unfortunately I'm not able to fully disclose how we come up with those stats.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Current value is what they are currently valued at. Draft day value is a value that goes back in time and takes the value we had for the player on draft day, at that specific age. Its mostly useful for players who are 25, 26, in the NHL - to see where they were projected by us back when he was 18/19. It uses the same formula to quantify it - its just using draft year stats with draft year age.

does the draft day value tend to generate weird results for guys who haven't made the NHL yet?

 

[Lovonov]

does the draft day value tend to generate weird results for guys who haven't made the NHL yet?

There are usually a few who we could call 'busts', but from top to bottom its pretty accurate in terms of rankings.

 

[Randy Randerson]

There are usually a few who we could call 'busts', but from top to bottom its pretty accurate in terms of rankings.

it seems very odd that Liljegren is way below Sandin despite very similar results in the AHL including Liljegren's D+1. I'm assuming Sandin's OHL numbers aren't included being pre-draft. I know you aren't disclosing the calculation but I'm not sure what major difference it's perceiving between those two, I don't think anyone is expecting a massive offensive difference between them in the NHL at this point

 

[Lovonov]

it seems very odd that Liljegren is way below Sandin despite very similar results in the AHL including Liljegren's D+1. I'm assuming Sandin's OHL numbers aren't included being pre-draft. I know you aren't disclosing the calculation but I'm not sure what major difference it's perceiving between those two, I don't think anyone is expecting a massive offensive difference between them in the NHL at this point

Keep in mind this is purely based around a Fantasy output. Liljegren may end up being the more valuable player of the two, but in terms of Fantasy it seems Sandin thus far is proving to hold more merit to own in a dynasty league over Liljegren. Also, Sandin is a year younger and is at a .56 ppg, while Liljegren is one year older at a .4 ppg. Both will end up being good fantasy players. Right now Sandin is proving to be better.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Keep in mind this is purely based around a Fantasy output. Liljegren may end up being the more valuable player of the two, but in terms of Fantasy it seems Sandin thus far is proving to hold more merit to own in a dynasty league over Liljegren. Also, Sandin is a year younger and is at a .56 ppg, while Liljegren is one year older at a .4 ppg. Both will end up being good fantasy players. Right now Sandin is proving to be better.

fair enough, I think your metric is really reactive to the small sample then and that's fine, I don't think it's realistic to think there will be a big difference between them with what's known right now (unless it's inverse with Liljegren on top) but if it's sheerly mechanically driven that makes sense

 

[Lovonov]

fair enough, I think your metric is really reactive to the small sample then and that's fine, I don't think it's realistic to think there will be a big difference between them with what's known right now (unless it's inverse with Liljegren on top) but if it's sheerly mechanically driven that makes sense

We are continually testing current season metrics on previous seasons, with previous (older) players who were once prospects to see how close it actually is. Of course this predictive metric will never be fully accurate, but I do believe it should give casual and intermediate fantasy owners with a better visual for what to expect from these guys.

 

[Orfieus]

On Liljegren, "Curb your expectations for him to become a top pairing defender – he has a high floor and lower(ing) ceiling." I very much disagree with his assessment of Liljegren falling ceiling because of his point totals. Seems to me he is just point watching and has no idea the minutes Liljegren was getting. The fact he is Marlies #2 Dman (Rosen being #1) being put out there against the best the AHL has to offer as well as playing on the PP and PK, Liljegren ceiling IS NOT falling

 

[Keon1963]

Check this out guys. FANTALYTICA: The best Toronto Maple Leafs’ prospects today, from...

This is my new startup, which will have a tool for fantasy dynasty owners with a way to evaluate prospects based on how many fantasy points they will get based on the relative league settings.

Would love to hear feedback on this article and/or Fantalytica in general.

Is there a reason you have included Keaton Middleton and Nicolas Nattinen (both of who are not Leafs prospects) in your analysis?

 

[Lovonov]

Is there a reason you have included Keaton Middleton and Nicolas Nattinen (both of who are not Leafs prospects) in your analysis?

This list is every player drafted by the leafs since '16.

 

[Orfieus]

Is there a reason you have included Keaton Middleton and Nicolas Nattinen (both of who are not Leafs prospects) in your analysis?

Because his analysis is bad and not worth reading because all he is doing is looking at points/game and making judgments

 

[Lovonov]

Because his analysis is bad and not worth reading because all he is doing is looking at points/game and making judgments

You realize this analysis is for custom fantasy leagues right? Its not an 'in-general' evaluation. The graph is fit to predict points in a standard Fantrax Dynasty league...

 

[Orfieus]

You realize this analysis is for custom fantasy leagues right? Its not an 'in-general' evaluation. The graph is fit to predict points in a standard Fantrax Dynasty league...

On Liljegren "Curb your expectations for him to become a top pairing defender – he has a high floor and lower(ing) ceiling."

He isn't talking about points here, he is predicting Liljegren future NHL development solely by how many points he has this year, which is really dumb

If he were to have said something like, because of all his hard minutes and playing as the Marlies #2 Dman Liljegren will have another adjustment to make this year as he gets used to playing in key roles as a young 19yr old and as such his point totals may go down this year (and with his recent injury that is now a reality).

That would be my fantasy overview of Liljegren this year

 

[Lovonov]

On Liljegren "Curb your expectations for him to become a top pairing defender – he has a high floor and lower(ing) ceiling."

He isn't talking about points here, he is predicting Liljegren future NHL development solely by how many points he has this year, which is really dumb

If he were to have said something like, because of all his hard minutes and playing as the Marlies #2 Dman Liljegren will have another adjustment to make this year as he gets used to playing in key roles as a young 19yr old and as such his point totals may go down this year (and with his recent injury that is now a reality).

That would be my fantasy overview of Liljegren this year

My apologies, but this is refering to his fantasy pairing potential. Top pairing fantasy defender*.