In light of all the discussion about EP hitting so many posts/crossbars this season, I did a little tinkering with the data to see how he compares to the rest of the league and to past seasons.
I compiled this spreadsheet before the Jets games, so he has another post already, but other players may have changed too.
Note that the NHL only started tracking posts and crossbars in 09-10, so while this is an all time list, it obviously leaves off most of the NHL's history. Moreover, (anecdotally) crossbars seem much rarer at the start of the 2010s, so it is possible that the league was tracking crossbars differently to begin with.
This list is the top 20 all time in regular season post+crossbar/60 for players having played >700 total minutes, or roughly one 4th line season (to eliminate small sample sizes). League average values (not just for the top 20) are shown at the bottom.
Player | Total Min | G | A | P | Hits/60 | BkS/60 | GvA/60 | TkA/60 | S% | G/USAT(%) | MsS PandC | PandC/GP | PandC/USAT(%) | PandC/60 | G/60 | A/60 | P/60 | EVG/60 | EVP/60 | MsS/60 | USAT/60 | MsSWide/60 | MsSOver/60 |
Elias Pettersson | 2920.30 | 60 | 86 | 146 | 2.32 | 1.99 | 1.86 | 1.78 | 17.0 | 11.4 | 29 | 0.18 | 5.51 | 0.60 | 1.23 | 1.77 | 3.00 | 0.80 | 1.95 | 3.57 | 10.81 | 2.24 | 0.74 |
Cale Makar | 1462.00 | 13 | 49 | 62 | 2.33 | 2.21 | 1.84 | 1.80 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 12 | 0.18 | 5.36 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 2.01 | 2.54 | 0.37 | 1.52 | 3.24 | 9.19 | 2.63 | 0.12 |
Patrik Laine | 5534.88 | 144 | 112 | 256 | 3.58 | 1.72 | 2.35 | 1.52 | 15.5 | 10.8 | 43 | 0.14 | 3.24 | 0.47 | 1.56 | 1.21 | 2.78 | 0.99 | 1.84 | 4.33 | 14.41 | 3.10 | 0.76 |
Jake Virtanen | 3753.40 | 51 | 45 | 96 | 9.41 | 1.93 | 1.69 | 2.68 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 29 | 0.10 | 3.59 | 0.46 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 1.53 | 0.67 | 1.34 | 3.87 | 12.92 | 2.70 | 0.70 |
Ales Kotalik | 1328.90 | 15 | 18 | 33 | 6.99 | 1.21 | 1.53 | 1.30 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 9 | 0.09 | 2.74 | 0.41 | 0.68 | 0.81 | 1.49 | 0.41 | 0.63 | 4.29 | 14.85 | 3.52 | 0.32 |
Vladimir Tarasenko | 8931.65 | 214 | 214 | 428 | 2.40 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.45 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 59 | 0.12 | 2.53 | 0.40 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 2.88 | 1.06 | 2.09 | 4.49 | 15.64 | 3.62 | 0.48 |
Kirby Dach | 913.07 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 2.16 | 1.51 | 1.05 | 2.49 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 6 | 0.09 | 4.41 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.99 | 1.51 | 0.53 | 1.31 | 2.30 | 8.94 | 1.64 | 0.26 |
Mike Hoffman | 8551.33 | 177 | 192 | 369 | 1.72 | 1.24 | 2.64 | 2.11 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 55 | 0.11 | 2.73 | 0.39 | 1.24 | 1.35 | 2.59 | 0.82 | 1.72 | 3.63 | 14.13 | 2.62 | 0.62 |
Tyler Seguin | 13683.80 | 279 | 356 | 635 | 2.45 | 1.17 | 1.88 | 1.57 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 87 | 0.12 | 2.48 | 0.38 | 1.22 | 1.56 | 2.78 | 0.88 | 1.91 | 3.95 | 15.36 | 3.00 | 0.57 |
Bobby Butler | 1609.83 | 20 | 29 | 49 | 2.98 | 1.19 | 1.34 | 1.67 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 10 | 0.08 | 3.55 | 0.37 | 0.75 | 1.08 | 1.83 | 0.67 | 1.49 | 2.80 | 10.51 | 2.20 | 0.22 |
Clayton Keller | 4410.00 | 59 | 109 | 168 | 0.61 | 0.88 | 1.70 | 1.74 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 27 | 0.11 | 3.09 | 0.37 | 0.80 | 1.48 | 2.29 | 0.65 | 1.50 | 3.24 | 11.88 | 2.44 | 0.44 |
Adam Cracknell | 2142.00 | 21 | 22 | 43 | 10.10 | 2.63 | 1.06 | 1.90 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 13 | 0.06 | 3.76 | 0.36 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 1.20 | 0.56 | 1.18 | 2.83 | 9.69 | 2.32 | 0.14 |
Auston Matthews | 5652.07 | 172 | 134 | 306 | 1.33 | 2.74 | 2.43 | 3.01 | 16.0 | 11.5 | 34 | 0.11 | 2.27 | 0.36 | 1.83 | 1.42 | 3.25 | 1.39 | 2.37 | 4.47 | 15.87 | 3.53 | 0.57 |
Vyacheslav Kozlov | 839.67 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 1.21 | 0.71 | 1.78 | 2.21 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 5 | 0.09 | 3.38 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 1.29 | 1.86 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 10.58 | 1.64 | 0.50 |
Jakub Vrana | 3530.30 | 70 | 72 | 142 | 2.14 | 1.22 | 2.48 | 1.83 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 21 | 0.08 | 2.79 | 0.36 | 1.19 | 1.22 | 2.41 | 1.09 | 1.99 | 3.62 | 12.80 | 2.80 | 0.46 |
Nikolay Goldobin | 1681.25 | 19 | 27 | 46 | 1.03 | 1.17 | 1.92 | 1.28 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 10 | 0.08 | 3.65 | 0.36 | 0.68 | 0.96 | 1.64 | 0.57 | 1.21 | 3.50 | 9.78 | 2.53 | 0.61 |
Trent Hunter | 1525.40 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 9.20 | 1.14 | 1.61 | 1.80 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 9 | 0.08 | 2.62 | 0.35 | 0.55 | 0.98 | 1.53 | 0.43 | 1.26 | 4.05 | 13.49 | 3.38 | 0.31 |
Steven Stamkos | 14609.60 | 407 | 394 | 801 | 3.31 | 1.37 | 1.78 | 1.44 | 17.3 | 12.2 | 86 | 0.12 | 2.58 | 0.35 | 1.67 | 1.62 | 3.29 | 1.03 | 2.09 | 4.03 | 13.71 | 2.87 | 0.80 |
Casey Mittelstadt | 1537.00 | 17 | 23 | 40 | 1.67 | 1.05 | 2.10 | 1.44 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 9 | 0.08 | 4.04 | 0.35 | 0.66 | 0.90 | 1.56 | 0.47 | 1.01 | 2.42 | 8.71 | 1.87 | 0.20 |
Alex Ovechkin | 17123.13 | 492 | 379 | 871 | 7.85 | 1.11 | 2.11 | 1.43 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 100 | 0.12 | 1.81 | 0.35 | 1.72 | 1.33 | 3.05 | 1.08 | 1.95 | 6.05 | 19.35 | 5.02 | 0.67 |
Average (all) | 4607.7 | 43.1 | 73.1 | 116.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
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As you can see, EP is tops on the list by a pretty significant margin. He was second (barely) to Rudolfs Balcers when sorting TOI>300min. He also leads all time in posts and crossbars per game played (PandC/GP) and per unblocked shot attempt (PandC/USAT). Pettersson is also 6th in missed shots over per 60 (MsSOver/60) and 10th in shooting percentage. He is also among league leaders (top 40 or better) in G/60, A/60, P/60, EVP/60 and G/USAT(%).
Despite these impressive scoring numbers, he does not shoot as much as many of the other elite goal scorers, and ranks number 400 in S/60 and 242 in USAT/60.
We can glean several important facts about his shooting from these numbers:
1. Overall, EP is a very accurate/efficient shooter. He owns one of the best shooting percentages of all time.
2. Despite that, he does tend to miss high (over) quite often, and misses by hitting posts and especially crossbars at a rate that greatly exceeds anyone else in the history of the NHL.
3. He possesses the 5th largest difference between S% and G/USAT% (5.6% versus 2.2% league average), despite his G/USAT% still being very high. This indicates that his scoring is more dependent on him hitting his target than on the goalie making a save.
4. He does not generate shots or unblocked shots for himself at as great a rate as most of his elite goal-scoring peers. This indicates that he is either/both a more selective shooter and/or struggles to create space for his shot.
My inferences:
1. EP has a similar shooting profile to many other elite PP triggermen such as Ovechkin, Stamkos, Laine, Matthews and Seguin, but is especially comparable to Stamkos and Laine. All three of these players operate at a similar position shooting and taking one-timers from the top of the circles (although on different sides) and are very good at beating unscreened goaltenders from this position. All three have very high shooting percentages but also miss the net high a lot and hit lots of posts and crossbars.
2. It seems reasonable to expect that Petterssons scoring could still improve despite his high S%. Firstly, his post and crossbars hit rate seems like it ows a little to bad luck since his missed shots over rate is already so high. He is beating goalies cleanly and squarely hitting the bar on most of these shots this season, so at a certain point some greater percentage will bounce down off the bar and in or off the goalie's back and in. Secondly, and more importantly, he still doesn't shoot as much as someone with as good a shot as he has should. If he can improve his S/60 from the current 7.6 to the 9-10 range to be in line with his comparables Stamkos and Laine (even if he doesnt get to the 11 to 13+ range like Matthews and Ovechkin), even with a slight shooting percentage reduction to ~15.5% (Stamkos is at 17.3, Laine at 15.5) he could go from 1.23 to ~1.4 G/60, which would move him up from 29th to 8th in terms rate since 09-10. Given an encouragement to shoot and more ice-time, 50 goals in an 82 game season seems like a very real possibility.
Other notes:
1. You will probably notice Jake Virtanen on the top 20 list. He has some intriguing underlying shot generation and missed shot location numbers and it is also possible that he could be a candidate to improve upon his career 9% shooting percentage and reach that elusive 20 goal plateau.
2. Brock Boeser is another elite Canucks shooter. He currently sits just outside the top 10 in G/60.
3. Cale Makar being the only defenseman on the list and 2nd is pretty crazy. Smaller sample size, but he is a unique talent.
4. Ovechkin leads the all time PandC with 100 in 838GP. This makes Petterssons 29 in 159 seem all the more impressive. It would be surprising if he isn't the all time leader in the category by the time he retires.
5. I have not looked at playoff stats in much detail, but Petterssons 1 PandC in 17GP is ~1/3 his regular rate. He was on a bit of a heater goals-wise in the playoffs last year.