Player Discussion Elias Pettersson, Pt. XIII

Previous threads

• Draft thread
  
• Pt. II: Jack Burton acts a fool
  
• Pt. III
  
• Pt. IV
  
• Pt. V: WJCs, SHL accolades
  
• Pt. VI: Taking Zetterberg's #40, first preseason, NHL debut
  
• Pt. VII: Enjoys: Being Mr. Everything, pronouncing it "Peter-son" / The Concussion Thread
  
• Pt. VIII: Is actually an eight-brained octopoid monster from Planet Ånge / Rookie of the Month / Jack Burton concedes
  
• Pt. IX: The 6th rookie since 1967 to put up multiple 5P games / Rookie of the Month again
• Pt. X: Elias "NHL All-Star" Pettersson
• Pt. XI: Elias Pettersson, Calder Trophy winner
• Pt. XII

 

Yetep Tih Esrever

 

Petey got grit.

 

Not enough talk about EP’s true bounce back game. He looked fantastic in third. All I hear is depression. Think long term guys.

 

Hey Ben

 

Emil Pettersson is leading SHL in points right now... maybe we can go for 2 Petterssons and 2 Hughes?

 

Maybe bring back Ryan Miller too after the Krakers take Holtby

 

7 post and one power play assists in 19 games is really hurting his production. Since the 2nd Ottawa game I think he’s been PPG.

 

I heard them say he has hit 9 posts and crossbars now, which is leading the league. At least he's starting to find his shooting rhythm again. I just think the team should feed him more pucks to shoot, especially on the PP. He should always be the number one shooter, as he has clearly the best shot on the team.

Hughes for example takes too many shots where he could feed Pettersson instead.

 

I know it didn’t work too well last year but Miller and Boeser need to trade spots in the PP with Boeser scoring again. Opposing teams are expecting the Pettersson shot and that will open things up for Boeser and vice versa.

 

Yes, for sure, Boeser is wasted in front of the net. They also need to start rotating and try to make things difficult for the PK, it's incredibly stale.

 

That quick one timer in the slot they always try to set up for Horvat could also be mimicked on the other side of the ice with Boeser being the trigger man in the slot.

 

Yup. Hughes is taking an uncharacteristic amount of weak point shots on the PP. it was weird he never made these low IQ muffin shots last year. He was much more selective with his shot process. As for Pettersson his 9 posts are more than double the next closer player in Draisaitl who has 4.

 

Yup, it's annoying. So many times Pettersson is open for a one-timer and Hughes shoots a bad muffin for a faceoff instead, at best case. Hughes isn't exactly Carlson (or a prime Burns) and at this time of his career, he should only make sure the PK respects his shot, he shouldn't see himself as a primary shooter. He has fired more shots on net than Pettersson even without Petey's 9 crossbars/ posts, that's still unacceptable as a team.

If Hughes improves his shot significantly, then we can start talking about him being a legit option for point shots. But now, at this stage? He should only shoot with screens and a good chance of a deflection, his shot will never go in on its own and he's taking way too many bad shots, when someone like Petey could've fired that thing instead.

Now Hughes lies at 3,6% in shooting percentage. Not exactly a number shaking the bones of the opposition. He needs a lot better shot before it becomes a real threat. That's not where Hughes shines as a player.

The primary goal on the PP should be to feed Petey. If the PK covers the hell out of it, then there are other options available and Hughes firing the puck is way long down that list.

 

Pettersson has been a bit hot and cold this year but it drives me absolutely nuts at how little playing time he gets 5on5 vs other star centres. Just looking at the North Division

5on5 ice time per games
Elias Pettersson: 13:56

Auston Matthews:18.12
Mark Schiefele: 17:16
Mcdavid: 17:09
Leon Draisital: 16:10

Hell even upstarts who haven't proven star status like Nick Suzuki and Jack Hughes play more at even strength than Pettersson

Nick Suzuki: 14:01
Jack Hughes: 16:51

Some other star centres around the league not in the North division

Alexandre Barkov:16:05
Jack Eichel: 17:02
Matthew Barzal: 16:43

 

Because Green loves overplaying Sutter and Beagle.

 

Bingo.

 

Well they are foundational muckers who can rip the puck

 

The coach is saving him for the playoffs.

 

Needs to shoot more on the PP, even if it isn't clean. Don't always go for the top shelf and you won't miss the net so much. Hughes is taking more point shots because EP isn't taking his chances. Someone like Ovie isn't waiting for it to be perfect. Why Boeser isn't the other option is beyond me.. he should be primed for that blocker side one timer. 2 big shots means 3, as it opens up, you guessed it, Huggys point.

Hopefully that last goal gets it going, but the whole sequence was telling of the season. Miss the net, iron, facemask, goal. Should have put the game out of reach for WPJ on one of the earlier PP's.

 

In light of all the discussion about EP hitting so many posts/crossbars this season, I did a little tinkering with the data to see how he compares to the rest of the league and to past seasons.

I compiled this spreadsheet before the Jets games, so he has another post already, but other players may have changed too.

Note that the NHL only started tracking posts and crossbars in 09-10, so while this is an all time list, it obviously leaves off most of the NHL's history. Moreover, (anecdotally) crossbars seem much rarer at the start of the 2010s, so it is possible that the league was tracking crossbars differently to begin with.

This list is the top 20 all time in regular season post+crossbar/60 for players having played >700 total minutes, or roughly one 4th line season (to eliminate small sample sizes). League average values (not just for the top 20) are shown at the bottom.

Player	Total Min	G	A	P	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	S%	G/USAT(%)	MsS PandC	PandC/GP	PandC/USAT(%)	PandC/60	G/60	A/60	P/60	EVG/60	EVP/60	MsS/60	USAT/60	MsSWide/60	MsSOver/60
Elias Pettersson	2920.30	60	86	146	2.32	1.99	1.86	1.78	17.0	11.4	29	0.18	5.51	0.60	1.23	1.77	3.00	0.80	1.95	3.57	10.81	2.24	0.74
Cale Makar	1462.00	13	49	62	2.33	2.21	1.84	1.80	9.0	5.8	12	0.18	5.36	0.49	0.53	2.01	2.54	0.37	1.52	3.24	9.19	2.63	0.12
Patrik Laine	5534.88	144	112	256	3.58	1.72	2.35	1.52	15.5	10.8	43	0.14	3.24	0.47	1.56	1.21	2.78	0.99	1.84	4.33	14.41	3.10	0.76
Jake Virtanen	3753.40	51	45	96	9.41	1.93	1.69	2.68	9.0	6.3	29	0.10	3.59	0.46	0.82	0.72	1.53	0.67	1.34	3.87	12.92	2.70	0.70
Ales Kotalik	1328.90	15	18	33	6.99	1.21	1.53	1.30	6.4	4.6	9	0.09	2.74	0.41	0.68	0.81	1.49	0.41	0.63	4.29	14.85	3.52	0.32
Vladimir Tarasenko	8931.65	214	214	428	2.40	1.18	1.19	1.45	12.9	9.2	59	0.12	2.53	0.40	1.44	1.44	2.88	1.06	2.09	4.49	15.64	3.62	0.48
Kirby Dach	913.07	8	15	23	2.16	1.51	1.05	2.49	7.9	5.9	6	0.09	4.41	0.39	0.53	0.99	1.51	0.53	1.31	2.30	8.94	1.64	0.26
Mike Hoffman	8551.33	177	192	369	1.72	1.24	2.64	2.11	11.8	8.8	55	0.11	2.73	0.39	1.24	1.35	2.59	0.82	1.72	3.63	14.13	2.62	0.62
Tyler Seguin	13683.80	279	356	635	2.45	1.17	1.88	1.57	10.7	8.0	87	0.12	2.48	0.38	1.22	1.56	2.78	0.88	1.91	3.95	15.36	3.00	0.57
Bobby Butler	1609.83	20	29	49	2.98	1.19	1.34	1.67	9.7	7.1	10	0.08	3.55	0.37	0.75	1.08	1.83	0.67	1.49	2.80	10.51	2.20	0.22
Clayton Keller	4410.00	59	109	168	0.61	0.88	1.70	1.74	9.3	6.8	27	0.11	3.09	0.37	0.80	1.48	2.29	0.65	1.50	3.24	11.88	2.44	0.44
Adam Cracknell	2142.00	21	22	43	10.10	2.63	1.06	1.90	8.6	6.1	13	0.06	3.76	0.36	0.59	0.62	1.20	0.56	1.18	2.83	9.69	2.32	0.14
Auston Matthews	5652.07	172	134	306	1.33	2.74	2.43	3.01	16.0	11.5	34	0.11	2.27	0.36	1.83	1.42	3.25	1.39	2.37	4.47	15.87	3.53	0.57
Vyacheslav Kozlov	839.67	8	18	26	1.21	0.71	1.78	2.21	7.1	5.4	5	0.09	3.38	0.36	0.57	1.29	1.86	0.36	1.00	2.50	10.58	1.64	0.50
Jakub Vrana	3530.30	70	72	142	2.14	1.22	2.48	1.83	13.0	9.3	21	0.08	2.79	0.36	1.19	1.22	2.41	1.09	1.99	3.62	12.80	2.80	0.46
Nikolay Goldobin	1681.25	19	27	46	1.03	1.17	1.92	1.28	10.8	6.9	10	0.08	3.65	0.36	0.68	0.96	1.64	0.57	1.21	3.50	9.78	2.53	0.61
Trent Hunter	1525.40	14	25	39	9.20	1.14	1.61	1.80	5.8	4.1	9	0.08	2.62	0.35	0.55	0.98	1.53	0.43	1.26	4.05	13.49	3.38	0.31
Steven Stamkos	14609.60	407	394	801	3.31	1.37	1.78	1.44	17.3	12.2	86	0.12	2.58	0.35	1.67	1.62	3.29	1.03	2.09	4.03	13.71	2.87	0.80
Casey Mittelstadt	1537.00	17	23	40	1.67	1.05	2.10	1.44	10.6	7.6	9	0.08	4.04	0.35	0.66	0.90	1.56	0.47	1.01	2.42	8.71	1.87	0.20
Alex Ovechkin	17123.13	492	379	871	7.85	1.11	2.11	1.43	13.0	8.9	100	0.12	1.81	0.35	1.72	1.33	3.05	1.08	1.95	6.05	19.35	5.02	0.67
Average (all)	4607.7	43.1	73.1	116.3	5.6	2.8	1.6	1.4	7.9	5.6	9.3	0.0	1.3	0.1	0.5	0.8	1.3	0.4	1.0	2.2	8.1	1.9	0.2

As you can see, EP is tops on the list by a pretty significant margin. He was second (barely) to Rudolfs Balcers when sorting TOI>300min. He also leads all time in posts and crossbars per game played (PandC/GP) and per unblocked shot attempt (PandC/USAT). Pettersson is also 6th in missed shots over per 60 (MsSOver/60) and 10th in shooting percentage. He is also among league leaders (top 40 or better) in G/60, A/60, P/60, EVP/60 and G/USAT(%).

Despite these impressive scoring numbers, he does not shoot as much as many of the other elite goal scorers, and ranks number 400 in S/60 and 242 in USAT/60.

We can glean several important facts about his shooting from these numbers:

1. Overall, EP is a very accurate/efficient shooter. He owns one of the best shooting percentages of all time.
2. Despite that, he does tend to miss high (over) quite often, and misses by hitting posts and especially crossbars at a rate that greatly exceeds anyone else in the history of the NHL.
3. He possesses the 5th largest difference between S% and G/USAT% (5.6% versus 2.2% league average), despite his G/USAT% still being very high. This indicates that his scoring is more dependent on him hitting his target than on the goalie making a save.
4. He does not generate shots or unblocked shots for himself at as great a rate as most of his elite goal-scoring peers. This indicates that he is either/both a more selective shooter and/or struggles to create space for his shot.

My inferences:
1. EP has a similar shooting profile to many other elite PP triggermen such as Ovechkin, Stamkos, Laine, Matthews and Seguin, but is especially comparable to Stamkos and Laine. All three of these players operate at a similar position shooting and taking one-timers from the top of the circles (although on different sides) and are very good at beating unscreened goaltenders from this position. All three have very high shooting percentages but also miss the net high a lot and hit lots of posts and crossbars.

2. It seems reasonable to expect that Petterssons scoring could still improve despite his high S%. Firstly, his post and crossbars hit rate seems like it ows a little to bad luck since his missed shots over rate is already so high. He is beating goalies cleanly and squarely hitting the bar on most of these shots this season, so at a certain point some greater percentage will bounce down off the bar and in or off the goalie's back and in. Secondly, and more importantly, he still doesn't shoot as much as someone with as good a shot as he has should. If he can improve his S/60 from the current 7.6 to the 9-10 range to be in line with his comparables Stamkos and Laine (even if he doesnt get to the 11 to 13+ range like Matthews and Ovechkin), even with a slight shooting percentage reduction to ~15.5% (Stamkos is at 17.3, Laine at 15.5) he could go from 1.23 to ~1.4 G/60, which would move him up from 29th to 8th in terms rate since 09-10. Given an encouragement to shoot and more ice-time, 50 goals in an 82 game season seems like a very real possibility.

Other notes:

1. You will probably notice Jake Virtanen on the top 20 list. He has some intriguing underlying shot generation and missed shot location numbers and it is also possible that he could be a candidate to improve upon his career 9% shooting percentage and reach that elusive 20 goal plateau.

2. Brock Boeser is another elite Canucks shooter. He currently sits just outside the top 10 in G/60.

3. Cale Makar being the only defenseman on the list and 2nd is pretty crazy. Smaller sample size, but he is a unique talent.

4. Ovechkin leads the all time PandC with 100 in 838GP. This makes Petterssons 29 in 159 seem all the more impressive. It would be surprising if he isn't the all time leader in the category by the time he retires.

5. I have not looked at playoff stats in much detail, but Petterssons 1 PandC in 17GP is ~1/3 his regular rate. He was on a bit of a heater goals-wise in the playoffs last year.

 

PRECISELY what Ive been saying

 

I will describe my appreciation for this post by posting a picture. I will continue to rave about that I know the effort it takes to do this kind of research - and that it was VERY well written. Awesome post @1440. If I could heart it, I would:

On to the actual analysis you have made and my take on it all: I think Pettersson suffers from being such a damn good playmaker. If he would be more specialized, he would score alot more goals, because he would instinctively shoot whenever he sees a chance. But now, he's the playmaker AND the shooter. As being such a great playmaker as well as shooter, he hesitates more, because he thinks for a split second to pass and then the moment of the shot is gone. He knows you need puck movement to beat the goalie.

I don't think it's about him not finding space to shoot, he's way to mobile and smart for that. He reads the game really well and I don't think that's the reason he doesn't shoot more. If I was a coach, I would try to implement in Petey's mind that he should ALWAYS try to score if he can. Every opportunity he has to shoot, he should take it and his teammates will know this. The accuracy and power of his one timer is a goddamn beauty. Well, his wrist shot as well, his snap shot is great and his backhand is brutal, but you get the meaning.

If he can't shoot or challenge, THEN he looks for a pass. If he can't find a pass, he has to challenge. Of course not as an absolute rule, but Petey HAS to start shooting more. He owes his own shot that. He needs to become more selfish offensively.

Matthews scores in bunches now, because he knows his role on his line and he's riddled with passing talent around him. He finds a spot and he shoots, end of story. Very simple. If a team could afford to put Pettersson on a primary scoring role, I have no doubt in my mind he would also score in bunches. But now he has to do it all: score, pass and defend, because he's the whole glue of his line.

On a good team, I would even consider putting Pettersson back on the right wing, if the team had a great center. More counter attacks and rushes - and he's GREAT at that - and more shooting opportunities. Now when Pettersson has to handle things so much defensively, he's almost never able to join the rush and counter attacks.