EK as a UFA

[Sensung]

Let's explore EK's market value.

If he waits till he's a UFA, what would he get after that bidding war?

Click to read more...

 

[Back in Black]

Stupid thread. He's gonna be signed on Draft day!

Just who signs him is the question......

 

[MR4]

Stupid thread. He's gonna be signed on Draft day!

Just who signs him is the question......

I'll bet your life savings he isn't signed on draft day

UFAs can't sign until July 1st of the previous FA period

 

[Sensung]

Stupid thread. He's gonna be signed on Draft day!

Just who signs him is the question......

It's called a hypothetical...

 

[BonkTastic]

Hypothetically, EK as a UFA?

How often does a multiple-time Norris winner become available on the open market, at a cost of no assets (ie: instead of a trade where you have to give up hockey assets to acquire), in his prime?

Obviously he gets a max-term 7 years. As for salary, I imagine he gets a top-5 salary in the league, and it would be front loaded. He becomes the highest paid defenceman in the league, no doubt, and the only question is how much more than Subban's $10mil salary / $9mil cap hit he gets.

McDavid will earn $15mil next year with a cap hit of $12.5mil. That's the most expensive deal in the league. I don't think EK gets there, but it would be close. Probably like $11-12mil cap hit, with the first couple of years front-loaded at $14mil (ish) salary with some "savings" on the final 2 years as the actual dollars decline.

7 years, $81mil. ($11.57mil cap hit)

2019-20: $14mil actual salary
2020-21: $14mil
2021-22: $14mil
2022-23: $12mil
2023-24: $11mil
2024-25: $9mil
2025-26: $7mil

... if you don't think that a 2x Norris Winner (and 2x Norris runer-up) in his prime would instantly become one of the top-5 paid players in the league at literally the most important and hardest-to-find position in hockey (RD), you're not thinking this through enough.

 

[stempniaksen]

Is this a question of what he WILL sign for or what he COULD sign for?

Could definitely see him taking a little less to be in a good situation (contender, warm weather, tax haven, ect) but if we're talking about him going to market and taking the best money on the table, I have no doubt he would be the 2nd highest paid player after McDavid (so $12ish mill/season).

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Let's explore EK's market value.

If he waits till he's a UFA, what would he get after that bidding war?

Won't happen .......... Peirre Dorion will not let EK65 walk for nothing.

 

[Sensung]

Won't happen .......... Peirre Dorion will not let EK65 walk for nothing.

EK can be traded, however theoretically he doesn't have to sign until he hits UFA status, with us or another team.

I know why you dont want to answer the question, but try being honest for a change.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

EK can be traded, however theoretically he doesn't have to sign until he hits UFA status, with us or another team.

I know why you dont want to answer the question, but try being honest for a change.

If he's an UFA in the future, at some point, he's no longer a Senator, as they would have traded him, and could care less what he would command as an UFA

 

[Sensung]

If he's an UFA in the future, at some point, he's no longer a Senator, as they would have traded him, and could care less what he would command as an UFA

Of course you dont have any desire to establish market value.

Truly pathetic agenda at work.

 

[BonkTastic]

Won't happen .......... Peirre Dorion will not let EK65 walk for nothing.

It's a hypothetical question.

We're exploring theoretical ideas here, not predicting the future.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think it would get pretty out of hand with something close to McDavid with huge signing bonus, lockout proof, nmc terms. I'd say 7x12 but that could be lowered a bit if Ekman-Larson and Doughty also go to ufa.

 

[slamigo]

Let's see what happens with Tavares first. He could be either a road map or a cautionary tale for EK and the Sens.

 

[Sun God Nika]

There will be a team that will offer him 14. Best player ever to hit UFA and cap goes up 5m this season and who know how much next season

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

One thing is almost a certainty is he will either be extended or traded by us, not let walk to UFA.

 

[Sensung]

One thing is almost a certainty is he will either be extended or traded by us, not let walk to UFA.

Agreed.

We are just trying to determine market value.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Agreed.

We are just trying to determine market value.

For sure. I don't think it should determine what we have to pay, but it would be interesting to see how crazy it could get for a player like this hitting UFA. Tavares should be interesting this summer, I can't believe NYI went the distance with him.

 

[Smash88]

I think his market value would be around the 12 million/season mark.

 

[Sensung]

Is this a question of what he WILL sign for or what he COULD sign for?

Could definitely see him taking a little less to be in a good situation (contender, warm weather, tax haven, ect) but if we're talking about him going to market and taking the best money on the table, I have no doubt he would be the 2nd highest paid player after McDavid (so $12ish mill/season).

Fair.

We are going for his COULD value, as that is the market will bear.

 

[tony d]

Went with 7 yrs. at 12 million per.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I'm all for theoretical, but this one has zero chance (figuratively of course) of ever happening. We of course would trade him to a team on his availability list, likely with a verbal agreement from EK of an extension, like Turris.

BUT, what an incredible move by a player to screw over a team, any team, as teams would be in the hot potato game with his contract, trying to sign him and then quickly trading him for diminishing returns so as not to get stuck with walking UFA. Hahaha! EK could real screw over a handful of team doing that, though being the first team we'd make out pretty good in that scenario.

Could you imagine that last season and the league wide drama unfolding!

 

[Ouroboros]

Players like this just don't hit the market, so it's hard to come up with an appropriate salary. The only real comparable I can think of is Zdeno Chara who, like Karlsson, is a totally unique player; just in a different manner. The Bruins gave him a 5 year deal at 7.5M per year which at the time was ~17% of the cap.

So, hypothetically, if Karlsson were to go into the open market on July 1st 2019 I could see a team giving him a 14M AAV. The opportunity to add a franchise calibre player for nothing but money is exceptionally rare, and teams would 'overpay' to do it.

 

[ElCormano]

It's not a zero chance. All that would need to happen is:

1) Karlsson says he wants to extend but negotiations take longer than expected
2) Season begins. Sens do really well, but still can't come to terms with Karlsson as the season goes on.
3) Trade deadline comes and goes. EK not traded because Sens are in a great playoff spot.

Not saying it will happen, but that's a totally possible scenario.

 

[Engineer]

delete

 

[Sensung]

I'm all for theoretical, but this one has zero chance (figuratively of course) of ever happening. We of course would trade him to a team on his availability list, likely with a verbal agreement from EK of an extension, like Turris.

BUT, what an incredible move by a player to screw over a team, any team, as teams would be in the hot potato game with his contract, trying to sign him and then quickly trading him for diminishing returns so as not to get stuck with walking UFA. Hahaha! EK could real screw over a handful of team doing that, though being the first team we'd make out pretty good in that scenario.

Could you imagine that last season and the league wide drama unfolding!

Feel free to add a selection with your number.