Prospect Info: Eeli Tolvanen

OldFan

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Jul 3, 2019
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I think it’s Preds or bust for Tolvanen. I feel his trade value has greatly diminished.
But remember, he’s never had a real chance in the NHL with NHL caliber line-mates and PP time with the best NHL teammates.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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I think it’s Preds or bust for Tolvanen. I feel his trade value has greatly diminished.
But remember, he’s never had a real chance in the NHL with NHL caliber line-mates and PP time with the best NHL teammates.
I think there's a limit though to how useful any player really is if he relies too much on good linemates and PP time. I feel like that's what we saw with Turris... has the basic skills package, and if you just spoonfeed him icetime in his favorite role at center with good wingers, he'll produce reasonably well. But the moment you take him out of that spot, he's basically useless. If that's where Tolvanen is headed --- a winger who pops 20-25 goals if you keep him in the 2nd line with PP time... then he's ultimately pretty interchangeable with a lot of players you can scoop up from the UFA market anytime you really want one.

Not saying that's where Tolvanen is headed. Just I would like it a whole lot more if it was more a case of him undeniably forcing his way into our plans rather than us gifting him a spot just because we don't happen to have anybody else at hand.
:dunno:

But yeah, I don't think there's any real likelihood of getting meaningful trade value out of him at this point. He's waiver exempt for 2 more years, so if that's how long it takes for him to become a force in Milwaukee and make himself Undeniable... then let it take 2 more years. We can afford to wait at this point.
 

OldFan

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I think there's a limit though to how useful any player really is if he relies too much on good linemates and PP time. I feel like that's what we saw with Turris... has the basic skills package, and if you just spoonfeed him icetime in his favorite role at center with good wingers, he'll produce reasonably well. But the moment you take him out of that spot, he's basically useless. If that's where Tolvanen is headed --- a winger who pops 20-25 goals if you keep him in the 2nd line with PP time... then he's ultimately pretty interchangeable with a lot of players you can scoop up from the UFA market anytime you really want one.

Not saying that's where Tolvanen is headed. Just I would like it a whole lot more if it was more a case of him undeniably forcing his way into our plans rather than us gifting him a spot just because we don't happen to have anybody else at hand.
:dunno:

But yeah, I don't think there's any real likelihood of getting meaningful trade value out of him at this point. He's waiver exempt for 2 more years, so if that's how long it takes for him to become a force in Milwaukee and make himself Undeniable... then let it take 2 more years. We can afford to wait at this point.
I really wasn’t talking about giving him a gift position. Just let’s see how he plays with NHL players which Preds have really not done. And Preds have to be willing to devote some quality ice time to him if he earns a look. Everybody says he did what was asked of him in Milwaukee; learn some defense. Ok, now what? He’s not going to be an NHLer on the 4th line getting 8 minutes a game and no PP time.
But yes, he has to earn his spot; it’s not a gift. Others are lining up in wait.
I have no idea how it might turn out but most prospect players have a first year experience and turn out maybe good or maybe not so good.
 

Armourboy

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I think there's a limit though to how useful any player really is if he relies too much on good linemates and PP time. I feel like that's what we saw with Turris... has the basic skills package, and if you just spoonfeed him icetime in his favorite role at center with good wingers, he'll produce reasonably well. But the moment you take him out of that spot, he's basically useless. If that's where Tolvanen is headed --- a winger who pops 20-25 goals if you keep him in the 2nd line with PP time... then he's ultimately pretty interchangeable with a lot of players you can scoop up from the UFA market anytime you really want one.

Not saying that's where Tolvanen is headed. Just I would like it a whole lot more if it was more a case of him undeniably forcing his way into our plans rather than us gifting him a spot just because we don't happen to have anybody else at hand.
:dunno:

But yeah, I don't think there's any real likelihood of getting meaningful trade value out of him at this point. He's waiver exempt for 2 more years, so if that's how long it takes for him to become a force in Milwaukee and make himself Undeniable... then let it take 2 more years. We can afford to wait at this point.
Isn't that what you had in Smith? I mean he basically played wing and some PP and people were ok with bringing him back.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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Isn't that what you had in Smith? I mean he basically played wing and some PP and people were ok with bringing him back.
I thought Smith played really well when he wasn't scoring. I thought he earned his icetime and opportunity, that it wasn't just gifted to him.

I was also OK with letting him go, because he's interchangeable.

Either way, it would be a win for us if Tolvanen could turn out to be as good as Smith. :crossfing
 

Armourboy

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I thought Smith played really well when he wasn't scoring. I thought he earned his icetime and opportunity, that it wasn't just gifted to him.

I was also OK with letting him go, because he's interchangeable.

Either way, it would be a win for us if Tolvanen could turn out to be as good as Smith. :crossfing
My point is though is that Smith didn't really do anything but score goals and play on the PP. He was never a guy you would use on a shut down line or the PK.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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My point is though is that Smith didn't really do anything but score goals and play on the PP. He was never a guy you would use on a shut down line or the PK.
I would have had no qualms using him on a shut-down line or the PK. He was a solid two-way player and one of our hardest workers and most physical players (not saying much for our team).
 
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Porter Stoutheart

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So then why didn't 3 NHL coaches and various other assistant coaches then?
We had a surfeit of other capable PK players, obviously. Whether or not he played on a "shut-down" line could be debated. He played with Bonino all last season, after all.
 

adsfan

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I think it’s Preds or bust for Tolvanen. I feel his trade value has greatly diminished.
But remember, he’s never had a real chance in the NHL with NHL caliber line-mates and PP time with the best NHL teammates.

Unfortunately, I think that your are correct. I blame Nashville 100% for that.

Tolvanen has played 7 NHL games in 3 seasons with zero games last season. He has done everything that was asked of him. Tone down the offense. (I wonder how many Preds forwards have been asked to do that or is it just the system that kills offense?) Play more defense and check people. It he is stuck on the 4th line, he won't work out. A race horse is different from a plow horse.

He needs to be playing on the second line or a combo of lines 2 and 3. Maybe on the PP2. Then, he will be set up for success, rather than being a 21 year old has been that never had a real chance with the Predators.

I see him as a 20 goal scorer in the NHL. He had 21 G in 63 games in MKE with 15 assists. That 1 goal per 3 AHL games should work out to 1 goal per 4 NHL games. He may have more upside to 30 goals, but that will take a few NHL years.

Last season, he did get to play on a premier AHL team with a .714 winning percentage. The year before it was 0.579 and out in the first round of the playoffs. Let's hope for another great KHL season!
 

Byrddog

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In 18-19 there were 122 players in the league that had 20 or more goals, 112 players that had more than 50 points, 74 players with 60 or more points, 55 players with more than 70 points. That year goals by Preds were Arvy 34 Forsberg 27 Smith 21. 34 goals places Arvy 25th in the league 27 placed Forsberg in the 60's. The point is only three player on the team with 20 goals is a problem. So is the strategy of having numerous 20 goal guys on the team to make up the shortfall of top teams having 30 to 50 goal guys. Yes it sounds to be reasonable but the reality of it is 18-19 there were 3 whith more than 20, 17-18 there were 4 with the high of 29 by Arvy, in 16-17 three again Arvy and Forsberg with 31 and Neal with 23, 15-16 four Forsberg Neal Smith and Weber.

20 goals has become the gold standard in Nashville and yes league wide any player who does not have 20 are not looked at as top 6 guys. Looking at these rookies and having an expectation that they are going to have 20 out the gate is insincere even if they are getting top 6 minutes and PP time. Radulovs first year he had 18 Forsbergs first year 26 goals and Forsberg was not drafted by Poile. Both of these are far superior to any forward currently in the organization. It makes no sense that Poile is going this route but we know Poile is going to Poile.
 

OldFan

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Is 20 goals good on the 2nd line with pp2 minutes? Is this his peak?
No. To #1. Peak? If it is his peak, it’s not good enough for line 2 and PP 2.
But 20 goals on line 2 and PP2 might be good enough for his 1st year. He can’t just get a 20 game look see and conclude no go. Preds have actually invested a lot into Tolvanen including likely passing up deals for him while he was a hot commodity.
So, it’s put up time as far as I’m concerned. The clock is running out for him. First and foremost, he’s got to win a job in camp. Then Preds have got to devote some time for him on the ice.
 

Pr0fet

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To go further on that. We don’t have a single forward in the top 90 of time on ice per game played. Grandlund was top and he ranked 93rd.

I was thinking about before as well and its really interesting. Now that you mentioned it I hade to go check. Our top line players are actually playing 4-6 minutes less per game than alot of other top line players. Its natural that this will translate into less points which in the end brings down the value of our players. Its time to give our top guys the chance to show is where their max is.
 

Armourboy

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Hynes played our top players less than Lavi did I believe - especially Forsberg. Which is crazy IMO.
Some of that though probably had to do with that period where he was trying to send them a message, you had guys like Joey playing on the 4th line. Not to mention things got flipped on our head with us because the only line playing worth a damn was Bonino's line, which means they were getting more ice time than most 3rds would get.
 
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Porter Stoutheart

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Some of that though probably had to do with that period where he was trying to send them a message, you had guys like Joey playing on the 4th line. Not to mention things got flipped on our head with us because the only line playing worth a damn was Bonino's line, which means they were getting more ice time than most 3rds would get.
This is exactly what happened. And he boosted Turris and especially Granlund correspondingly. He was flailing a little bit, and then when Granlund actually produced, he couldn't very well go back. Until the play-ins, anyway. But I don't think it necessarily means very much.
 

Pr0fet

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Some of that though probably had to do with that period where he was trying to send them a message, you had guys like Joey playing on the 4th line. Not to mention things got flipped on our head with us because the only line playing worth a damn was Bonino's line, which means they were getting more ice time than most 3rds would get.

Its somewhat true ofcourse, but now I hade to go check the season before the last. And the thing is that our player with most time om ice (Joey) only ranks 37 among forwards. The second one (Arvy) ranks 47. And then you have our most gifted offensive player Forsberg, ranking 60 which means 2-4 minutes less per game than the top 20 players.

The season before that was even worse with Joey ranking 60, Arvy 93 and Forsberg 100.

So even under Lavi our top players werent really getting top player minutes. In addition all our play runs through our defence meaning it hasnt been easy being a top point scoring forward in Nashville.
 
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OldFan

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Preds top players are the best they have but I wouldn’t call them top players; more like medium players. Or, at least, they perform like medium players. (Forwards, not Dmen).
 
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Byrddog

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The reason it always looks the same is Poile, that’s his philosophy and he stresses to the coaches
Have to agree here I mean even thinking back to the Trotz years he was limited by the talent Poile gave him. It is pretty clear Trotz can coach offensive talent and we used to beat him up about ruining Legwand and repressing forwards who would not play both ways.

When you think about it Why in the world would you expose James Neal well it is true he did not have 70 points but he scored goals. I mean correct me if I am wrong but I think he protected Jarnkrok to expose Neal. While Neal is not an elite player he was a solid goal scorer. Then consider moving Hornqvist a guy who has thrived his whole career in the dirty areas, something we have not hard well really since Horni was traded.

Now Poile has in his own twisted way adjusted the roster to fit the coach. He turned the roster over to players who he felt fit Lavi. And now is doing the same thing for Hynes system which is more like Trotz then Lavi. Of course teams need adjustments to systems and coaches but it does seem that Poile has been half in giving the coach some of what he wants and the rest are what Poile wants. It almost feels like the Arnott, Karyia, Sullivan years were Poiles job on the line years to make the playoffs or get canned and now he is just immune to accountability by a ownership group that knows very little about the game.

The roster right now is so out of whack even for Poile is is confusing. A team that has always been known for a top blueline and goaltending is just Mehhhh. Yes Josi won the Norris but the Defense is maybe 12th in the league and the goaltending well it is a mess. Big dollar forwards on sickening term contracts making them unmovable when compared to production.

Then in the offseason Poile goes all in trying to land Hall and Kunin and while Kunin may help there is still no left wing for that 2nd line and it is hard to imagine a 22 year old Kunin will be the difference maker when the current plan is to put a rookie on the other wing. Now if Poile does in fact backdown on his opinion og being happy with the roster and makes a play for Hoffman or Killorn then he can make a case. That still does not kill the gorilla in the room of the faltering defense and goaltending. Replacing the 3rd pair with grit guys that will not be able to play up when Ellis gets hurt next season does nothing. And I get it many think Saro's deserves a shot at the #1 but chances are better than 50% that he will not be a #1 and Pekka is clearly fallen from his veznia performance.

So balanced lines have not worked and now if they are going to try this yet again they are going to have to separate the JOFFA line, the only line that has been solid for three years. The answers are not pretty.
 

triggrman

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Preds top players are the best they have but I wouldn’t call them top players; more like medium players. Or, at least, they perform like medium players. (Forwards, not Dmen).
I'd disagree. Compared to the ice time they get, they actually on par. RyJo, 63rd in points for centers, 63rd in ice time. Forsberg, 19th in points for left wingers, 27th in ice time, Arvidsson 40th in ice time, 49th in points, 40thin in ice time.
Here's one that hurts. Craig Smith, 25th in goals for rw, 67th in ice time.

If you break the ice time even further by positions. Arvy was 51st in ES time on ice, Forsberg ES was 27th, Johansen 81st.
 
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