CaptainBenn
Registered User
- Sep 8, 2012
- 5,511
- 431
Yeah, 23% is not an anomaly for a player who does such a large percentage of his shooting from breakaways. He shot above 20% in 4 of 6 seasons of his career.
Well you can call them seasons but 8 and 22 is hardly a season.
What about danault and gallagher for rnh+ a prospect ( khaira)
Since the 1st Rounder will likely be a top 15 in a strong draft year, I would do it.
Montreal is so thin on center that if we somehow manage to trade for one they'll get the David Desharnais treatment and be given every possible opportunity to succeed. I think RNH has some untapped potential that he'll never be able to realize if he stays with the Oilers.
It doesn't mean he's an ideal option, there just aren't any #1 center options available. He's an elite 3C or a decent #2 on the Oilers, but he'd be more valuable on the Habs roster than just about any other team in the league. In Montreal he'd be our #1 option and he'd play with our top wingers every game, I don't think he'd just be the 40 point player he currently is now that McDavid is captaining the ship in Edmonton.
If he played between Pacioretty and Drouin I think he could get 55+ points his first season.
not too far off but the prospect would need to be better
Byron + 1st rd pick + Brook (2017 2nd rd pick) seems like OK value
oils need to get a 3C that isnt making 6 mil before McDavids new deal kicks in.
Can you read? I legit said it was going to be the opportunities that are likely to go down...And who's going to feed him these breakaway passes now that Markov is gone?
Also, I just checked and if you really want to go down that way, Byron had a QoC Rel CF% (only one I could find with most advanced stats websites dead) of -0.124 and RNH had -0.040. This is not even a difference big enough to be statistically significant.There's this thing called quality of competition. It's where one guy goes head to head with the elite forwards in this league and the other plays soft minutes and feeds off of lesser opponents. I'll let you guess which one does which.
Edmonton doesn't need a pending UFA role player coming off of the best season of his career (at 27) plus bits and pieces for a top six centre. There's zero guarantee Byron isn't the exact same player he was when he was in the West last time.
We're trying to win now, just like you. If you want to deal Byron and futures and try to walk away with a centre, talk to Colorado.
Byron is signed through 18-19.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/byronpa01/scoring/2017
16 of his 43 points game against Western Conference teams. He actually had a higher PPG against teams out West. The whole Eastern/Western conference bias is stupid anyways, there's really not much difference between the two. Idk if you remember but Byron had a 3 point game and torched the Oilers last season.
The extra year is nice but still doesn't really help us. He's not getting top six icetime here l - we have better options on LW in Maroon and Lucic, a recent signing in Jokinen, wouldn't want him taking ice away from Caggiula. He's just simply not a need and not a reasonable starting point for RNH.
Prior to last season Byron had 66 points in 200 NHL games. I'm betting he's a lot closer to that player than the 22 goal man from last season.
So are the Oilers, and this trade significantly downgrades their roster and doesn't add any depth. As pointed out earlier RNH's draft position isn't relevant and neither is McCarrons(who's 2 years younger than RNH). He's a bust, the late pick does nothing for years, and Byron is too small(as we've seen him previously here in the pacific, and the failed Desharnais experiment).MTL seems like they are in win now mode. I think if they have a shot to upgrade their roster at especially the center position the (probably late) first is expendable.
He plays RW also if that makes a difference. And I mean he outscored Maroon last year??? The concerns you have for Byron are the exact same concerns people had for Maroon and he's still an effective player after breaking out at age 28. Jokinen isn't better than Byron currently, not even close.
If you truly think Maroon's 42 points with McDavid are better than Byron's 43 points with Plekanec... so be it. I actually think Maroon-McDavid-Byron would be a helluva top line, similar to what the Penguins do with Crosby allowing depth throughout the lineup.
I understand there's not really a deal to be made with Byron and RNH this season, but I feel like you're really undervaluing what Byron did last season. He would've been the 3rd highest scoring winger on your team last year behind Lucic and Eberle (now traded), so really the 2nd highest scoring winger if you plan on playing Drai at center.
2016-17 stats:
Paul Byron: 81 games, 22 goals, 21 assists, +21
RNH: 82 games, 18 goals, 25 assists, -10
Byron also has a steal of a contract at 1.1 million while RNH has a 6 million dollar deal.
Nuge also played 250 more minutes than Byron, and scored 8 less even strength goals. RNH is also producing less on a much higher scoring team than Byron, and isn't nearly as good on the PK.
Can you read? I legit said it was going to be the opportunities that are likely to go down...
Also, Markov assisted on 3 of Byron's goals last season. Just so you know before spitting stuff without even bothering to check. Byron is really fast and gets several breakaways after receiving a pass from a forward teammate while he is blasting past his opponents at center ice. (12 of his goals were primarily assisted by a forward and 3 were unassisted)
(Seems like I was beaten by Spokestick )
Also, I just checked and if you really want to go down that way, Byron had a QoC Rel CF% (only one I could find with most advanced stats websites dead) of -0.124 and RNH had -0.040. This is not even a difference big enough to be statistically significant
Nuge seasonsYou keep referring to him as a top-6 center which isn't a fact. He's proven himself as a decent #3 center with really good potential, but he doesn't even sniff the list for top-60 centers in terms of PPG. And I would take him on my team anyday but he's been labeled soft, inconsistent, and injury prone. Not to mention his defense is being vastly overrated in this thread. He had the worst +/- on the Oilers by a fair margin.
'Paul Byron is amazing based only on last season you should be happy to move RNH for him since they're basically the same player'
Okay then, what about Gallagher? After all if we're only using a single season sample size he's a 13 goal player (pace over 82). Do Habs fans value Byron more than Gallagher?
To Edmonton:
Paul Byron
2018 first
Michael McCarron
To Montreal:
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Fair? Over/underpayment?
Read again some of the posts in the thread. Byron gets a lot of his shots on breakaways. This is why he has such a low shot total for a forward. And the conversion rate on a breakaway is higher than pretty much any other type of shots. That is a case of stat analysis without context from your part.Are Montreal fans seriously still pushing the idea that Byron's as good as his 20+ goal season suggests? The guy shot a ridiculously high shooting percentage, so unless he either a]shoots well over 20% again or b]takes over 200 shots next season, I'm willing to bet that he won't come close to similar production again.
Pretty much every statistic besides points from last season indicate that Gallagher dealt with ridiculously bad luck. He was still very dominant whenever he was on the ice. Nobody sane on the Habs board would value Byron more than Gallagher.'Paul Byron is amazing based only on last season you should be happy to move RNH for him since they're basically the same player'
Okay then, what about Gallagher? After all if we're only using a single season sample size he's a 13 goal player (pace over 82). Do Habs fans value Byron more than Gallagher?
Read again some of the posts in the thread. Byron gets a lot of his shots on breakaways. This is why he has such a low shot total for a forward. And the conversion rate on a breakaway is higher than pretty much any other type of shots. That is a case of stat analysis without context from your part.
Pretty much every statistic besides points from last season indicate that Gallagher dealt with ridiculously bad luck. He was still very dominant whenever he was on the ice. Nobody sane on the Habs board would value Byron more than Gallagher.
The difference between 2015-16 Byron and 2016-17 Byron in terms of goals is in the number of breakaway opportunities he had which itself came with being used more and with better linemates. He had the same sh%.